It's Been an Impressive 2014 for the Bears so far

It has been quite a 2014 so far for the Hershey Bears.

They entered the year with a 13-12-2-3 record.  Which really translates to a 13-17 record with a few more points thrown in for losing late.

They were scoring goals at a rate of 3.1 per game and were allowing 3.0 per game.  So the near .500 record seems pretty accurate.

And they were a borderline playoff team at that point...at best.

But 2014 has been much different.  Everything has been better.

Since January 1 the Bears are 16-4-1-0 or 16-5.

That's damn good...but it actually gets better.

They are scoring 3.3 goals per game, a slight increase over the first 30 games...and they are allowing ONLY 2.3 per game.

That is DAMN good.

In fact, if those were full season numbers the Bears would rank 3rd in goals for per game and 1st in goals against per game.


So yeah, the Bears are playing good hockey right now.  And now they are the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference and no team in the AHL would want to play them right now.

But will it continue?  After all, most of those wins (12 of them) were at Giant Center.  And a few weeks ago I put up a post about how they were struggling on the road while playing superbly at home.

Over the rest of the season the Bears have 25 games to play.  16 of those are on the road.  Including 3 of the next four after tonight.

But there are signs that their road play is improving.

In the first 4 road games of their 2014 domination the Bears went 1-2-1-0 and scored only 2 goals per game while allowing 2.3.  The defense was still rock solid, but the offense was sputtering.

Well, in the 6 road games since I wrote that previous post they have started to turn it around.  They are 4-2-0-0 in those games while scoring 2.8 goals per game and allowing only 2.5.

Obviously its a small sample size, but it is all we have at this point.  We will surely learn more over the next few weeks as 6 of their next 9 games are on the road.


Anyone who has been to Giant Center over the last few weeks knows that this team has finally gelled and seems to be playing some good hockey.

Their record supports that and so do the stats.

The Bears are the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference and are playing as well as anyone in the conference.  They are only 6 points out of 1st in the division and have a game in hand with Binghamton.

If they keep playing the way they have over the past month...the sky is the limit for this Bears team.



Later this week (or next weekend) I will have a post up about the remaining schedule and how it sets up pretty nicely for the Bears.  So check back to read that (or follow us on Facebook so you don't miss anything).

Bears Power Play is Better With Graham Mink (Obviously)

Ok, let’s start with some information that you already know…the Bears have a good power play. League leading. Converting on 30.2% of their chances. That is over 8% better than the team in 2nd (Texas at 22.1%). 

Graham Mink has 11 power play goals this season.  Tied for 1st in the league.

But you probably knew that too.

The Bears have scored 2 or more power play goals in 17 games this year. They are 13-0-2-2 in those games.

Big deal, obviously if you score 2 or more goals with the extra man you are more likely to win.

Fair argument.

Mink has been in the lineup for 14 of those 17 games.

Ok, that is something new and somewhat interesting, but Keith Aucoin, Chris Bourque, Christian Hanson, and Jacob Micflikier have been in the lineup for at least that many as well. So what?

Mr. Mink has only played in 28 games this season. In half of those games the Bears have scored 2+ power play goals.

And remember, the Bears win 76.5% of their games and earn 88.2% of possible points when they score 2+ power play goals.

Translation…the Bears are more likely to score power play goals…and in turn win, when Graham Mink plays.

Graham has only played in 33% of the games this calendar year.  The Bears have only converted on 23.8% of their power plays this calendar year.

Ok, so maybe you still aren’t convinced. Let me say that this isn’t the Richmond Effect (although even that took a big hit this past weekend…he was in the lineup for all 3 games), the Bears are not automatically a better team just because Minker is in the lineup.

But the power play is definitely more explosive.

By a show of hands how many of you thought the power play looked bleak this weekend? Wow, that’s a lot of hands. Ok, I agree.

Now, which player was missing on Saturday and Sunday? Yes, that would be one Graham Mink.

Did you know that…

In games where Graham Mink does NOT play the Bears have scored 15 power play goals….in 14 games. And they are still converting on 24.2% of their chances. Which would still be good enough for 1st overall in the league, but a full 6% less than their current numbers.

In games where Mr. Mink DOES play…28 of them to be exact…the Bears have scored 43 power play goals. That is 1.54 per game which is almost half a goal per game than when he doesn’t play.

33.1%. That is the Bears success rate on the power play WITH Mr. Mink in the lineup. That is almost 9% higher than when he is not in the lineup.

The Bears power play, and in turn the Bears as a team, are more potent with Graham in the lineup.

Anyone who witnessed the debacle that was the Bears power play this past weekend knows what I am talking about.  (Ok, it wasn't that bad, but it didn't seem to be clicking...almost like something, or someone, was missing.)

To recap today’s lesson:

Graham Mink = More Power Play Goals = More Hershey Bears Wins = Happiness For All

Is Danny Richmond the key to the Bears season?

Recently over at Sweetest Hockey on Earth they made an observation about Danny Richmond and how when he is in the lineup, the Bears are a better team. ShoE called it the Richmond Effect. 

Basically, the theory is that Hershey is a better team when Richmond is in the lineup.

At first I didn’t even want to consider it. I thought they were nuts and there was no way one player, that was barely playing (their post went up a little before Christmas), could possibly be having that large an impact.

I took a look at some simple, basic stats after that post and thought maybe there was something to it. And since the article went up, the results have continued. So, now I present it to you with some statistics to make the point.

First, let’s just break it down by record so far this season:

• w/ Richmond – 12-2-2-1
• w/o Richmond – 9-6-2-2
• Overall – 21-8-4-3

Just by looking at the records you can see that there might be something to this. Sometimes records don’t tell the whole story due to the method at which the AHL (and NHL for that matter) give out points. As in, some losses are better than others and a team is rewarded with a point. (One of the dumbest rules in sports by the way.)

So, the Bears based on points percentage (percentage of points earned):

• w/ Richmond - .794
• w/o Richmond - .579
• Overall - .681

Wow. So with Richmond the Bears earn about 22% MORE points in the standings. Not too bad.

Ok, but maybe the Bears have played weaker competition when Richmond has been in the lineup…

Point’s percentage of Bears opponents (as of 1/9/12):

• In games w/ Richmond - .564
• In games w/o Richmond - .534
• Overall - .549

So, yet again, the Richmond Factor still holds up. The Bears have played a tougher slate of opponents with Richmond in the lineup then when he is on the bench.

Is there something else that is influencing it and making it seem like he is the missing link? Maybe per game scoring explains it…

• w/ Richmond – 4.2 goals per game
• w/o Richmond – 3.5 goals per game
• Overall – 3.8 goals per game

Ok, that’s goals for; maybe they are giving up more goals against, resulting in the need to score more in order to win…

• w/ Richmond – 2.8 goals allowed per game
• w/o Richmond – 3.1 goals allowed per game
• Overall – 2.9 goals allowed per game

So far it seems that the Bears are better in every important category when Richmond is in the lineup. Hmmm, maybe this really can be true.

Let’s keep looking though…there has to be something we are missing.

Maybe your argument would be, a lot of those games probably came early in the season and since the team is playing better of late, everything is evening out. This is a relatively true statement as the Bears started out good, went into hibernation through November, and have come out to feed since December 1.

But is their success of late because Richmond has been getting more opportunities?

Through the first two months of the season Richmond played in only 8 of a possible 20 games (40%). Since December 1 he has played in 9 of 16 (56%).

And the numbers are just as supporting…take a look:

Since December 1, 2011 the Bears by record:

• w/ Richmond – 9-0-0-0
• w/o Richmond – 3-2-1-1
• Overall – 12-2-1-1

Point’s percentage:

• w/ Richmond – 1.000
• w/o Richmond - .571
• Overall - .813

We already knew the Bears have been good since December 1, 2011, but did you realize that when Richmond doesn’t play, the Bears are barely above .500?

And the opposition over that stretch? It is pretty much the same. Overall the Bears opponents had a point’s percentage of .563 since December 1. The difference with or without Richmond is less than .010.

Scoring since December 1:

• w/ Richmond – 4.6 goals per game
• w/o Richmond – 4.1 goals per game
• Overall – 4.4 goals per game

• w/ Richmond – 1.9 goals allowed per game
• w/o Richmond – 3.6 goals allowed per game
• Overall – 2.6 goals allowed per game

Wow. This might be the biggest factor I have seen so far. When Richmond has played in games since December 1, the Bears gave up almost 2 fewer goals per game. That is substantial.

So, wait. You are telling me that a guy who has, so far this season, no goals, 2 assists, and a +3 rating is the key to the Bears this year?

Overall the numbers are pretty convincing. The sample size is still relatively small though. The Bears have only played 16 games since December 1 (9 with Danny, 7 without) and have only played 36 on the year. By the end of the season the sample size will be large enough for the coaching staff to have to strongly consider making roster decisions based on the information.


Danny Richmond, picture by Kyle Mace at Sweetest Hockey on Earth

 Maybe you believe the theory, maybe you don’t. Either way, the statistics at this point in the season are strongly in Richmond's favor if you want to believe it.

Personally, I am not entirely convinced....but I am getting close.