Editors Note - Sorry in advance, I got a little long-winded.
In the Bears first 9 games this season they scored at least 4 goals in a game 6 times. Combined they scored 31 goals in those 9 games.
In their last 12 games they have scored 4 goals in a game only once. Combined they have scored 19 goals.
First 9 games...32 goals.
Last 12 games...19 goals.
Ouch.
And that doesn't even tell you how bad it as been.
In the Bears last 5 games they have failed to score more than 1 goal in regulation. Seriously. In their last 5 games the Bears have scored a total of 4 goals.
The amazing part is that in those 5 games they are 3-2-0-0.
Yeah, I know. The Bears have won 3 of their last 5 despite only scoring 4 goals in those 5 games.
There is little chance that many other AHL teams have ever acomplished that feat.
Alright, more than likely you already knew all of this. But let me say that I believe this is good for the Bears. This stretch tells us two things:
1. The defense and goaltending are really good.
2. When the playoffs come and games typically get tighter and lower scoring, the Bears will be experienced in that.
However, I would feel a whole lot better about their playoff chances if they could score some goals.
While waiting in line for the turkey shoot last Wednesday (I scored by the way) one guy made a pretty accurate comment to me. He said that after the first 2 home games this season he was ready to send in his money for the playoff tickets. But after this recent stretch he said he will hold on to his money for a while.
I completely agree.
So how do the Bears fix it?
Before the season even started I mentioned that there were no true go-to scorers on this team. And that has proven true.
Sure, there is a ton of talent. But 2 things stand out to me:
1. There seems to be no difference in how each line plays in the offensive zone.
2. The best offensive weapon is stuck with less talented line mates.
That player is Stanislav Galiev. Everyone has known about his talent for a while now. And damn, we have seen his skills in flashes this season.
In fact, he is the only Bear to score in the last 3 games.
So what's the problem?
The problem is all of those goals have come on the power play.
That's important, sure. But what the Bears need is production at even strength. Yet Galiev is playing with Chandler Stephenson and Nathan Walker.
Now let me stop and say this...I think Stephenson was the BEST forward on the ice (all-around) for Hershey the last few games and Walker is definitely fun to watch.
But neither are offensive stars in the making. They aren't playmakers. They are energy line guys. There is nothing wrong with that.
Except when the 3rd guy on that line is also the best offensive weapon the Bears have.
Which brings me to point #1 from above, there is no separation of lines in Hershey. Thanks the incredible depth the Bears seem to be running 4 scoring lines.
That sounds terrific...4 lines that can produce and score goals. Awesome.
Yeah...how is that working out?
What the Bears NEED are 2, maybe 3, scoring lines, and 2, or at least 1, energy line.
What is the difference?
For starters, the style is different. Scoring lines enter the zone and try to create. They move around, try to get open, and make extra passes trying to get the best shot.
That's a fine strategy. It leads to goals because over the course of a game, the energy lines are tiring out the defense with a different style.
Except the Bears don't have an energy line. They don't have a line that comes out, cycles the puck down low, and makes the defense really work to get the puck away from them.
So, in turn, the scoring lines don't have the luxury of space when the come on the ice. Which results in stolen passes or never seeing a good look at the net.
Truth be told, Hershey's roster isn't constructed with a ton of energy line type guys. Or checking line type guys. It's a smaller roster overall, laden with playmakers. But there are guys that can serve the role.
Here is what I want to see:
Brown - Newbury - Galiev
That would be my top line intially. Brown is listed as a RW but I am sure he could make the switch. You have the playmaking of Newbury with the scoring of Galiev and a guy in Brown that is big enough (and seemingly willing) to get dirty in front of the net.
Plus you know Galiev will be protected against physical defenseman since Newbury seems to be a rather angry person and Brown will stick his nose in as well.
Next up:
Cornet/Conner - Kennedy - Wellman
There is my second line. Cornet would move to the press box when Conner is healthy, but both guys need to step it up a bit. A smaller line, but some good offensive potential here. If Wellman could play LW I would consider him for the top line.
So there are our two scoring lines. Notice that Dane Byers hasn't been mentioned. I love Dane. Think he is a TERRIFIC player.
But he isn't an offensive weapon. Not like the other guys.
So...next up:
Byers - Stephenson - Herbert/Mitchell
This is Garrett's spot when healthy, but Herbert's for now. The old guy with the young guys. An energy line. Get the puck down low and start cycling. Keep it moving and make the defense work to earn it.
And score a goal or two. This would also be the line you want out against the other teams top scoring line since all these guys can play in their own zone.
And finally:
Walker - Broda - Gazley
Another energy line. Throw this line out there and watch the speed take over. Broda isn't fast, but the other two are and they will cause problems when they are out there together.
I personally believe if the Bears would create true scoring and energy lines they would be a better team going forward.
Unfortunately it does not appear that the coaching staff feels the same way. The lines they were running at practice this week were the following:
Conner - Kennedy - Brown
Cornet - Wellman - Gazley/Herbert
Byers - Broda - Mitchell
Walker - Stephenson - Galiev
Newbury was sidelined with a back injury so he didn't practice, but I would expect him back at C on line 2 if he was healthy with Wellman moving to right wing.
The top 2 lines aren't terrible...but they still have the most talented offensive player Hershey has playing with 2 guys that aren't going to help him create.
Personally I think that this team will always be performing below their potential until they make room for Galiev to play with the top offensive playmakers like Wellman, Newbury, or Kennedy.
But hey, what do I know.
Hopefully the drills Mann is running and the (slightly) adjusted lines will do the trick.
Showing posts with label State of the Bears. Show all posts
Showing posts with label State of the Bears. Show all posts
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Saturday, February 22, 2014
It's Been an Impressive 2014 for the Bears so far
It has been quite a 2014 so far for the Hershey Bears.
They entered the year with a 13-12-2-3 record. Which really translates to a 13-17 record with a few more points thrown in for losing late.
They were scoring goals at a rate of 3.1 per game and were allowing 3.0 per game. So the near .500 record seems pretty accurate.
And they were a borderline playoff team at that point...at best.
But 2014 has been much different. Everything has been better.
Since January 1 the Bears are 16-4-1-0 or 16-5.
That's damn good...but it actually gets better.
They are scoring 3.3 goals per game, a slight increase over the first 30 games...and they are allowing ONLY 2.3 per game.
That is DAMN good.
In fact, if those were full season numbers the Bears would rank 3rd in goals for per game and 1st in goals against per game.
So yeah, the Bears are playing good hockey right now. And now they are the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference and no team in the AHL would want to play them right now.
But will it continue? After all, most of those wins (12 of them) were at Giant Center. And a few weeks ago I put up a post about how they were struggling on the road while playing superbly at home.
Over the rest of the season the Bears have 25 games to play. 16 of those are on the road. Including 3 of the next four after tonight.
But there are signs that their road play is improving.
In the first 4 road games of their 2014 domination the Bears went 1-2-1-0 and scored only 2 goals per game while allowing 2.3. The defense was still rock solid, but the offense was sputtering.
Well, in the 6 road games since I wrote that previous post they have started to turn it around. They are 4-2-0-0 in those games while scoring 2.8 goals per game and allowing only 2.5.
Obviously its a small sample size, but it is all we have at this point. We will surely learn more over the next few weeks as 6 of their next 9 games are on the road.
Anyone who has been to Giant Center over the last few weeks knows that this team has finally gelled and seems to be playing some good hockey.
Their record supports that and so do the stats.
The Bears are the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference and are playing as well as anyone in the conference. They are only 6 points out of 1st in the division and have a game in hand with Binghamton.
If they keep playing the way they have over the past month...the sky is the limit for this Bears team.
Later this week (or next weekend) I will have a post up about the remaining schedule and how it sets up pretty nicely for the Bears. So check back to read that (or follow us on Facebook so you don't miss anything).
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Bears Thoughts
It's been over a month since my last post. That is entirely unacceptable and I fully intend to begin posting regularly here again. We shall see if it happens or not.
Last time I was here I talked about how the Bears appeared to be improving after the cut in coaching staff. They had just gone on a 7-3-0-1 run and were 13-12-1-1 overall and moving up in the standings and statistical categories.
Since then...
Not so much.
All is not bad though, before I get to the bad...let's address the good.
Defensively there aren't many teams playing better than Hershey right now. On the season the Bears are allowing only 2.41 goals per game, good for 3rd in the league. As you may recall, back when Oates left the Bears were giving up 3 goals per game. So this is definitely an improvement.
In fact, since my last post on December 17th the Bears have played 14 games. They have allowed only 1.71 goals per game and never more than 3 in one game.
That means they are, theoretically, competitive in every single game.
Now, surely you are saying to yourself, "that's because Braden was in goal." And you wouldn't entirely be wrong. Mr. Holtbyism was superb of late. In the above-reference 14 games he played the first 7...and allowed LESS THAN 1.5 goals per game.
Very impressive.
BUT, since then the Bears have played 7 more games. And they have allowed only 2.00 goals per game in those. Not as good as when he was in between the pipes, but that would be leading the league if they had done it the whole season.
As I mentioned...the Bears have a good defense.
Unfortunately it is combined with an offense that is average on a good day.
On the season the Bears are averaging 2.59 goals per game. Good for 19th in league. Under Oates tutelage they were averaging 2.44 goals per game. After Oates left they started to get better in this regard and were above the 3.00 goals per game threshold for a while.
However, over the last 14 games they have gone the other way. In those games they are averaging a paltry 2.36 goals per game. Actually worse then at the beginning of the year.
Maybe those numbers are a bit deceiving...Hershey has scored 4 or more goals in 12 games this year. And only 2 of them came when Oates was still behind the bench. Meaning...the Bears have scored 4 or more goals in 10 of their last 25 games.
Now, they have also failed to score more than 1 goal in 7 of the remaining 15 games since Thanksgiving.
Which just goes to show the Jekyll and Hyde this team brings to the table. One game they are great...hitting everything that moves, staying out of the box, and scoring 4 times. The next night they get beat to every loose puck, take countless lazy penalties, and can't shoot to save their lives.
If this team is going to go any further in the playoffs then the last two years, they will have to develop some consistency.
Maybe the shift back to primarily AHL level players will help the Bears. Outside of Holtby, the Bears have lost little (on a permanent basis) from the team that started the season. Other teams have lost more than that and will have to adjust...if they can.
I still think the Bears can make some noise in the playoffs. Call me an optimist if you want, but I think the veteran leadership on the team will prevail come playoff time and success will be had.
But they have to first overcome the following two...GLARING...weakness.
The inability to come from behind and the inability to shoot the puck on net.
When leading after 1 period the Bears are 12-3-0-1. Pretty good.
When leading after 2 the Bears are even better...15-0-1-1.
However...
When trailing after 1 period the Bears are....0-9-0-0.
When trailing after 2 they are 0-14-0-0.
The good news...they have only trailed after the 1st period 9 times. Solid starting team.
Bad news is obvious...but it gets a bit more glaring. The Bears are the only...I repeat....ONLY team in the AHL that has failed to win a game when trailing after 1 period.
Yes, that means that even the Hamilton Bulldogs, the AHL's last place team (and lowest scoring team) has won a game after trailing at the end of 1. They have done it 2 times and 3 others they managed to come back and force OT and get at least a point.
How about after 2?
There are 3 other teams that have failed to win when trailing after 2, but those teams have all at least forced an overtime once. Only Albany and Bridgeport come close in ineptitude here with 11 and 14 losses when trailing after 2, respectively, and only 1 overtime forced for each.
Not exactly teams I thought the Bears would be compared too when the season started.
Now onto the shooting problem.
We have all seen it. Many of you voice your displeasure each game...especially on the power play. Even I have found myself suggesting they shoot the puck more during games. And for those of you who know me, that is newsworthy by itself.
It's maddeningly frustrating to watch them pass up good chances looking for that next pass.
Here is a little secret...in case any players (or anyone close to the players) happens to read this....you are playing in the AHL; the goalies aren't that good.
The Bears rank dead last in shots per game. DEAD LAST. 24.8 per game to be exact.
The #1 team averages almost 10 more shots per game than Hershey.
Hell, the #29 team averages almost 2 more shots per game than Hershey.
This problem goes back to something I said at the beginning of the year...the Bears don't have a go-to scorer. And it is killing them. Alexandre Giroux would never have passed up as many chances as these guys have. Mike Green would have taken a bunch more shots from the point. Hell, Kyle Wilson, Chris Bourque, Andrew Gordon...NONE OF THEM would have passed on some of these opportunities.
But the current Bears aren't those Bears. Not that there aren't good goal scorers on this team. Jeff Taffe, Jon DiSalvatore, Ryan Potulny...these guys have all been productive offensive players in the AHL.
I just don't see any of them as a "go-to" guy. The type of player that desperately wants the last shot. The type of player that wants the puck on his stick on the power play.
That type of player doesn't seem to be on the roster.
Now, could the lack of shots be because of the "system" in place now in the Oates regime? Maybe partly, but I think we all can see that the shots are there, the Bears aren't taking them.
As I said before, I still think this is a good Bears team. Not great, but good. They have the veteran leadership and defensive play that could lead to good things in the postseason. But they will have to do enough scoring in the regular season to get there first.
Last time I was here I talked about how the Bears appeared to be improving after the cut in coaching staff. They had just gone on a 7-3-0-1 run and were 13-12-1-1 overall and moving up in the standings and statistical categories.
Since then...
Not so much.
All is not bad though, before I get to the bad...let's address the good.
Defensively there aren't many teams playing better than Hershey right now. On the season the Bears are allowing only 2.41 goals per game, good for 3rd in the league. As you may recall, back when Oates left the Bears were giving up 3 goals per game. So this is definitely an improvement.
In fact, since my last post on December 17th the Bears have played 14 games. They have allowed only 1.71 goals per game and never more than 3 in one game.
That means they are, theoretically, competitive in every single game.
Now, surely you are saying to yourself, "that's because Braden was in goal." And you wouldn't entirely be wrong. Mr. Holtbyism was superb of late. In the above-reference 14 games he played the first 7...and allowed LESS THAN 1.5 goals per game.
Very impressive.
BUT, since then the Bears have played 7 more games. And they have allowed only 2.00 goals per game in those. Not as good as when he was in between the pipes, but that would be leading the league if they had done it the whole season.
As I mentioned...the Bears have a good defense.
Unfortunately it is combined with an offense that is average on a good day.
On the season the Bears are averaging 2.59 goals per game. Good for 19th in league. Under Oates tutelage they were averaging 2.44 goals per game. After Oates left they started to get better in this regard and were above the 3.00 goals per game threshold for a while.
However, over the last 14 games they have gone the other way. In those games they are averaging a paltry 2.36 goals per game. Actually worse then at the beginning of the year.
Maybe those numbers are a bit deceiving...Hershey has scored 4 or more goals in 12 games this year. And only 2 of them came when Oates was still behind the bench. Meaning...the Bears have scored 4 or more goals in 10 of their last 25 games.
Now, they have also failed to score more than 1 goal in 7 of the remaining 15 games since Thanksgiving.
Which just goes to show the Jekyll and Hyde this team brings to the table. One game they are great...hitting everything that moves, staying out of the box, and scoring 4 times. The next night they get beat to every loose puck, take countless lazy penalties, and can't shoot to save their lives.
If this team is going to go any further in the playoffs then the last two years, they will have to develop some consistency.
Maybe the shift back to primarily AHL level players will help the Bears. Outside of Holtby, the Bears have lost little (on a permanent basis) from the team that started the season. Other teams have lost more than that and will have to adjust...if they can.
I still think the Bears can make some noise in the playoffs. Call me an optimist if you want, but I think the veteran leadership on the team will prevail come playoff time and success will be had.
But they have to first overcome the following two...GLARING...weakness.
The inability to come from behind and the inability to shoot the puck on net.
When leading after 1 period the Bears are 12-3-0-1. Pretty good.
When leading after 2 the Bears are even better...15-0-1-1.
However...
When trailing after 1 period the Bears are....0-9-0-0.
When trailing after 2 they are 0-14-0-0.
The good news...they have only trailed after the 1st period 9 times. Solid starting team.
Bad news is obvious...but it gets a bit more glaring. The Bears are the only...I repeat....ONLY team in the AHL that has failed to win a game when trailing after 1 period.
Yes, that means that even the Hamilton Bulldogs, the AHL's last place team (and lowest scoring team) has won a game after trailing at the end of 1. They have done it 2 times and 3 others they managed to come back and force OT and get at least a point.
How about after 2?
There are 3 other teams that have failed to win when trailing after 2, but those teams have all at least forced an overtime once. Only Albany and Bridgeport come close in ineptitude here with 11 and 14 losses when trailing after 2, respectively, and only 1 overtime forced for each.
Not exactly teams I thought the Bears would be compared too when the season started.
Now onto the shooting problem.
We have all seen it. Many of you voice your displeasure each game...especially on the power play. Even I have found myself suggesting they shoot the puck more during games. And for those of you who know me, that is newsworthy by itself.
It's maddeningly frustrating to watch them pass up good chances looking for that next pass.
Here is a little secret...in case any players (or anyone close to the players) happens to read this....you are playing in the AHL; the goalies aren't that good.
The Bears rank dead last in shots per game. DEAD LAST. 24.8 per game to be exact.
The #1 team averages almost 10 more shots per game than Hershey.
Hell, the #29 team averages almost 2 more shots per game than Hershey.
This problem goes back to something I said at the beginning of the year...the Bears don't have a go-to scorer. And it is killing them. Alexandre Giroux would never have passed up as many chances as these guys have. Mike Green would have taken a bunch more shots from the point. Hell, Kyle Wilson, Chris Bourque, Andrew Gordon...NONE OF THEM would have passed on some of these opportunities.
But the current Bears aren't those Bears. Not that there aren't good goal scorers on this team. Jeff Taffe, Jon DiSalvatore, Ryan Potulny...these guys have all been productive offensive players in the AHL.
I just don't see any of them as a "go-to" guy. The type of player that desperately wants the last shot. The type of player that wants the puck on his stick on the power play.
That type of player doesn't seem to be on the roster.
Now, could the lack of shots be because of the "system" in place now in the Oates regime? Maybe partly, but I think we all can see that the shots are there, the Bears aren't taking them.
As I said before, I still think this is a good Bears team. Not great, but good. They have the veteran leadership and defensive play that could lead to good things in the postseason. But they will have to do enough scoring in the regular season to get there first.
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Step 1 - Addition by Subtraction
The Bears season has been disappointing, to say the least. Most opinions surrounding the team in the preseason was one of optimism as there appeared to be an abundance of goal scorers, a likely NHL goalie, an improving defensive corps, and a NHL head coach behind the bench.
One of those has been removed as of this past Wednesday. Adam Oates and his NHL coaching staff are back in Washington and will no longer be contributing to the Hershey Bears...at least in person.
According to Coach French, the system implemented by Oates WILL REMAIN in place moving forward. Tweaks will be made based on necessity but the system will not be scrapped. (Personally, I would imagine adjustments have already been made.)
One theory on the team's bad start was that with two coaches, players didn't know which to follow. Surely there were differences of opinions between the coaching staffs and players were likely told different things from time to time. Even if we assume that the coaches all spoke the 'company line' and stuck to the same message, the message was watered down to appease both head bosses.
But that experiment is over. Will the Bears turn things around now?
Only time will tell but I don't think that was the only problem. It may have been at the root of all the problems, but if you expect to see a completely different team on the road tonight or at home tomorrow, you are probably going to be disappointed.
In my personal opinion the problem with this team right now is simple...communication. Or a lack of. Admittedly, my seats at GC aren't optimally placed to hear players talking to each other on the ice so maybe it is happening, but I can assure you that it isn't enough.
You can see it on the ice. Whether its a breakdown in the defensive zone or some confusion on who should go for the loose puck, the players don't seem to be taking advantage of their most simple tool.
This brings us back to the too many new players and not enough consistency in lines problem I discussed previously. Aucoin and Giroux and Bourque were all so good together because they got used to playing on the same line with each other game after game, no matter what was happening or not happening. Familiarity is developed over time, not overnight.
And sure as hell not for one period. Each of the last 2 games I have seen good line composition (at least in my opinion) at the start of the games. But in each of those 2 games I saw the lines shuffled before long. How are guys supposed to learn each other tendencies and styles if they are changing line mates all game long.
I won't place all of this blame on Coach Oates, but one of French's biggest weaknesses (again, just my opinion) is sticking with a line TOO LONG. Anyone remember the Texas Stars series a few years ago? He waited until the last possible moment, his team down 2 games to none and trailing entering the 3rd period of game 3 before he finally changed the lines.
So part of me thinks (and hopes) that the construction of lines and adjustments was mainly the responsibility of Oates. And if that is the case, the Bears should improve.
Slowly.
This is basically a coaching change in midseason. Sure it is just going back to where the team was last year, but 10 of the active players played ZERO games with Hershey last season. And another handful only played or practiced with the team for a few games.
Since training camp opened back in September the team had two coaches, two coaching styles, and many different opinions. Now they have one coach, one coaching style, and just a couple opinions to worry about. BUT, that will take a bit to get used to.
I still believe this team has the talent to compete in the 2012-13 AHL. You can see it when the game is 0-0 in the first period. Unfortunately, as soon as they give up a goal, everything seems to change.
Teams in hockey routinely change coaches and see success throughout the rest of the year. I expect nothing different from the Hershey Bears.
The season starts now. The Bears are 3 points out of playoff position with 60 games to play.
One of those has been removed as of this past Wednesday. Adam Oates and his NHL coaching staff are back in Washington and will no longer be contributing to the Hershey Bears...at least in person.
According to Coach French, the system implemented by Oates WILL REMAIN in place moving forward. Tweaks will be made based on necessity but the system will not be scrapped. (Personally, I would imagine adjustments have already been made.)
One theory on the team's bad start was that with two coaches, players didn't know which to follow. Surely there were differences of opinions between the coaching staffs and players were likely told different things from time to time. Even if we assume that the coaches all spoke the 'company line' and stuck to the same message, the message was watered down to appease both head bosses.
But that experiment is over. Will the Bears turn things around now?
Only time will tell but I don't think that was the only problem. It may have been at the root of all the problems, but if you expect to see a completely different team on the road tonight or at home tomorrow, you are probably going to be disappointed.
In my personal opinion the problem with this team right now is simple...communication. Or a lack of. Admittedly, my seats at GC aren't optimally placed to hear players talking to each other on the ice so maybe it is happening, but I can assure you that it isn't enough.
You can see it on the ice. Whether its a breakdown in the defensive zone or some confusion on who should go for the loose puck, the players don't seem to be taking advantage of their most simple tool.
This brings us back to the too many new players and not enough consistency in lines problem I discussed previously. Aucoin and Giroux and Bourque were all so good together because they got used to playing on the same line with each other game after game, no matter what was happening or not happening. Familiarity is developed over time, not overnight.
And sure as hell not for one period. Each of the last 2 games I have seen good line composition (at least in my opinion) at the start of the games. But in each of those 2 games I saw the lines shuffled before long. How are guys supposed to learn each other tendencies and styles if they are changing line mates all game long.
I won't place all of this blame on Coach Oates, but one of French's biggest weaknesses (again, just my opinion) is sticking with a line TOO LONG. Anyone remember the Texas Stars series a few years ago? He waited until the last possible moment, his team down 2 games to none and trailing entering the 3rd period of game 3 before he finally changed the lines.
So part of me thinks (and hopes) that the construction of lines and adjustments was mainly the responsibility of Oates. And if that is the case, the Bears should improve.
Slowly.
This is basically a coaching change in midseason. Sure it is just going back to where the team was last year, but 10 of the active players played ZERO games with Hershey last season. And another handful only played or practiced with the team for a few games.
Since training camp opened back in September the team had two coaches, two coaching styles, and many different opinions. Now they have one coach, one coaching style, and just a couple opinions to worry about. BUT, that will take a bit to get used to.
I still believe this team has the talent to compete in the 2012-13 AHL. You can see it when the game is 0-0 in the first period. Unfortunately, as soon as they give up a goal, everything seems to change.
Teams in hockey routinely change coaches and see success throughout the rest of the year. I expect nothing different from the Hershey Bears.
The season starts now. The Bears are 3 points out of playoff position with 60 games to play.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Saturday, November 17, 2012
What Ails The Bears?
I would imagine that most of you have noticed that our Bears have been struggling to produce so far this season. Through 13 games the Bears are 5-7-1-0 (11 points) and currently sit tied for second worst record in the Eastern Conference.
That is mediocre.
Through last night's games the Bears are averaging 2.46 goals per game, 23rd in the AHL. They have scored only 8 first period goals, only 4 teams have scored fewer. They have only scored 8 third period goals as well, only 1 (ONE!) team has scored fewer third period goals.
Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your outlook), those numbers are easy to explain. The Bears have taken fewer shots in the 1st and 3rd period then every other team. AND, they are 2nd lowest in shots per game with only 23.92. Hell last night they didn't get their 3rd shot on goal until the second period. Over 20 minutes of hockey they managed to record 2 shots. It's no wonder they lost 6-1.
But anyone who has watched this team knows that the offense has been struggling. Over the past 3 games the Bears have scored 3 goals. One in each game.
There are good things too though...kind of.
The Bears are allowing the 11st fewest goals per game, 2.92 per game. And considering they give up the 25th most shots per game (33.31 per game) that is pretty good.
Only 8 teams have scored more 2nd period than the Bears. It's something!
The Bears are winning 100% of the games where they lead after 2 periods. Woohooo! Problem is they have only managed that 4 times this season.
They have only lost 1 time when leading after 1 period. Oh wait....they have only been in that position 3 times.
I think the worst stat is that the Bears are 0-9-0-0 when trailing after the first OR second period. Basically, if you are at a game and the Bears head to either intermission trailing...it doesn't look good.
So, are we in for a season of mediocrity? Are we looking at the first non-playoff year of the Capitals affiliation?
I don't think so. Remember that it is still early in the season. I know it's already Thanksgiving, but the Bears have only played 17% of their games for the season. Plenty of time for improvement.
Something to keep in mind and to watch for going forward...it's still a new system, new coaches, and new players.
Every player on the team is learning a new strategic system. Based on my understanding, it is based on more of a counterattack philosophy then a full out attack. The general theory would be to be better in your defensive zone by sacrificing some of the offensive fortitude of recent years. Unfortunately it takes time to implement a new system and considering the condensed training camp exposure to it (typically most players would have started learning the system in Caps camp) and the sporadic playing schedule of the AHL in the early season, it is hard to make adjustments.
I have never been a huge fan of the new coaching situation (you know...the one where there is an NHL head coach alongside the AHL head coach), but I can't say how it is really going. Everyone is saying all the right things, but you have to assume that it is affecting things. Adjustments in lines and style now need to go through two 'CEOs' instead of just one. Too many roosters in the hen house, if you will.
Can it work? I would imagine. Will it? I don't know.
And finally, this is a brand new team. So many of the key players from the past few years are gone and in their place are AHL veterans that may or may not work well with each other. Again, it takes time to build familiarity with line mates and teammates in general. And who knows what the locker room is like. Are guys communicating effectively, are they getting along, is there a leader.
The locker room could be just like the coaching situation...too many leaders. Guys have a certain leadership style and if two veterans have a style that clashes, it will cause a divided locker room. Keep in mind that this is just speculation, but with all the veterans on the team now I wouldn't be surprised if there is some locker room division going on. Especially considering that the team is struggling so much right now.
In the end there is no way to know any of those things. None of us have coached with Adam Oates before to know if his system is being implemented effectively. None of us are in the coaches meetings to know if decisions are being watered down in order to appease everyone. None of us are in the locker room to know if the veterans are getting along or sitting quietly in their respective corners.
A few things I have seen that makes me question all of the above:
The numbers speak for themselves...they aren't producing. It tells me that Oates' system is either not effective with this team, isn't completely implemented, or the players aren't executing it properly.
The line make up makes me question everything about the coaching situation. There is no rhyme or reason for the line combinations that I have seen so far. I want to see 2 unquestioned scoring lines with guys like Taffe, Disalvatore, Stoa, Galiev, Hamill, Potulny, Almeida, Berry, and Syner on them. After that I want a checking line capable of scoring goals...Kane, Mitchell, and Beaudoin for example. Then give me a high-energy checking line with Sjogren, Carman, Pope, Kalinsky, and/or Clackson.
Right now you see guys that should be on checking lines trying to play on the first line. I understand the system's need for solid defensive zone play, but you have to be able to capitalize on the counterattacks if the system is going to work.
As for the 'too many leaders in the locker room thing'...I have nothing. That is entirely just a speculative possibility.
I do still believe in this team. I think there is enough offense that, given the opportunity and the right combinations, could make a very effective offensive team. BUT, until we see it, it is just an unsubstantiated opinion. So far there is little I have seen from this team to suggest that they can compete for a Calder Cup.
This team has talent. No question there. The biggest question is...is this team built for Oates' system or the previous system?
The answer to that question is still at least a month away. Before the season I was quite certain that we wouldn't really know what kind of team this was until Thanksgiving or so. Let's see where things stand after the 25th.
In the meantime...
Author note - posts have been rather infrequent on here this season to date. Unfortunately, that does not appear to be changing for myself. With a demanding job, kids, and other side projects, I just don't have the time to write here as much. So, the wife is going to take over much of the writing here and will continue to update the Facebook page with daily news. I hope to get back into writing regularly this season, but we will wait and see. Thanks for reading! I am sure I will be back from time to time to offer my opinion and analysis.
That is mediocre.
Through last night's games the Bears are averaging 2.46 goals per game, 23rd in the AHL. They have scored only 8 first period goals, only 4 teams have scored fewer. They have only scored 8 third period goals as well, only 1 (ONE!) team has scored fewer third period goals.
Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your outlook), those numbers are easy to explain. The Bears have taken fewer shots in the 1st and 3rd period then every other team. AND, they are 2nd lowest in shots per game with only 23.92. Hell last night they didn't get their 3rd shot on goal until the second period. Over 20 minutes of hockey they managed to record 2 shots. It's no wonder they lost 6-1.
But anyone who has watched this team knows that the offense has been struggling. Over the past 3 games the Bears have scored 3 goals. One in each game.
There are good things too though...kind of.
The Bears are allowing the 11st fewest goals per game, 2.92 per game. And considering they give up the 25th most shots per game (33.31 per game) that is pretty good.
Only 8 teams have scored more 2nd period than the Bears. It's something!
The Bears are winning 100% of the games where they lead after 2 periods. Woohooo! Problem is they have only managed that 4 times this season.
They have only lost 1 time when leading after 1 period. Oh wait....they have only been in that position 3 times.
I think the worst stat is that the Bears are 0-9-0-0 when trailing after the first OR second period. Basically, if you are at a game and the Bears head to either intermission trailing...it doesn't look good.
So, are we in for a season of mediocrity? Are we looking at the first non-playoff year of the Capitals affiliation?
I don't think so. Remember that it is still early in the season. I know it's already Thanksgiving, but the Bears have only played 17% of their games for the season. Plenty of time for improvement.
Something to keep in mind and to watch for going forward...it's still a new system, new coaches, and new players.
Every player on the team is learning a new strategic system. Based on my understanding, it is based on more of a counterattack philosophy then a full out attack. The general theory would be to be better in your defensive zone by sacrificing some of the offensive fortitude of recent years. Unfortunately it takes time to implement a new system and considering the condensed training camp exposure to it (typically most players would have started learning the system in Caps camp) and the sporadic playing schedule of the AHL in the early season, it is hard to make adjustments.
I have never been a huge fan of the new coaching situation (you know...the one where there is an NHL head coach alongside the AHL head coach), but I can't say how it is really going. Everyone is saying all the right things, but you have to assume that it is affecting things. Adjustments in lines and style now need to go through two 'CEOs' instead of just one. Too many roosters in the hen house, if you will.
Can it work? I would imagine. Will it? I don't know.
And finally, this is a brand new team. So many of the key players from the past few years are gone and in their place are AHL veterans that may or may not work well with each other. Again, it takes time to build familiarity with line mates and teammates in general. And who knows what the locker room is like. Are guys communicating effectively, are they getting along, is there a leader.
The locker room could be just like the coaching situation...too many leaders. Guys have a certain leadership style and if two veterans have a style that clashes, it will cause a divided locker room. Keep in mind that this is just speculation, but with all the veterans on the team now I wouldn't be surprised if there is some locker room division going on. Especially considering that the team is struggling so much right now.
In the end there is no way to know any of those things. None of us have coached with Adam Oates before to know if his system is being implemented effectively. None of us are in the coaches meetings to know if decisions are being watered down in order to appease everyone. None of us are in the locker room to know if the veterans are getting along or sitting quietly in their respective corners.
A few things I have seen that makes me question all of the above:
The numbers speak for themselves...they aren't producing. It tells me that Oates' system is either not effective with this team, isn't completely implemented, or the players aren't executing it properly.
The line make up makes me question everything about the coaching situation. There is no rhyme or reason for the line combinations that I have seen so far. I want to see 2 unquestioned scoring lines with guys like Taffe, Disalvatore, Stoa, Galiev, Hamill, Potulny, Almeida, Berry, and Syner on them. After that I want a checking line capable of scoring goals...Kane, Mitchell, and Beaudoin for example. Then give me a high-energy checking line with Sjogren, Carman, Pope, Kalinsky, and/or Clackson.
Right now you see guys that should be on checking lines trying to play on the first line. I understand the system's need for solid defensive zone play, but you have to be able to capitalize on the counterattacks if the system is going to work.
As for the 'too many leaders in the locker room thing'...I have nothing. That is entirely just a speculative possibility.
I do still believe in this team. I think there is enough offense that, given the opportunity and the right combinations, could make a very effective offensive team. BUT, until we see it, it is just an unsubstantiated opinion. So far there is little I have seen from this team to suggest that they can compete for a Calder Cup.
This team has talent. No question there. The biggest question is...is this team built for Oates' system or the previous system?
The answer to that question is still at least a month away. Before the season I was quite certain that we wouldn't really know what kind of team this was until Thanksgiving or so. Let's see where things stand after the 25th.
In the meantime...
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Author note - posts have been rather infrequent on here this season to date. Unfortunately, that does not appear to be changing for myself. With a demanding job, kids, and other side projects, I just don't have the time to write here as much. So, the wife is going to take over much of the writing here and will continue to update the Facebook page with daily news. I hope to get back into writing regularly this season, but we will wait and see. Thanks for reading! I am sure I will be back from time to time to offer my opinion and analysis.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
A look forward to what could impact Hershey's 2nd half
Yesterday I briefly recapped the seasons first half and talked about where the Bears stand now compared to other teams in the league. Based on that you would have to say that Hershey is in good position moving forward.
But will that continue? Will they get better? Or will they possible get worse? Those are all questions that will be answered over the next few months.
Here are 5 different things to ask or consider when looking at the remainder of the season. Some of the following items will help Hershey and a couple will hurt. And one is just a simple answer to a common question amongst Bears fans right now.
1. The return of Mathieu Perreault and Jay Beagle.
Obviously this would help the Bears if it were to happen. Right now the Caps are at 22 players will 3 players on IR (Alex Semin, Eric Fehr, and Tom Poti). Semin is expected back as early as tonight. If he returns that would place the Caps at the 23 man ceiling.
Poti could return to practice sometime next week with Fehr returning the following week. Neither would be back in the lineup immediately but they would be close.
So if we assume (and it really is a big assumption based on how the season has gone) that the remaining Caps stay healthy and Poti and Fehr return in say 3 weeks. We COULD see Beagle and/or Perreault back in Hershey by the end of the month.
At one time I thought Perreault could beat out Marcus Johansson for the #2 center spot in Washington but that isn't the case as of now. Perry has only 5 goals and 3 assists in 24 games with the Caps this year. MoJo isn't any better at 6 and 6 over 38 but he is more likely to get the place because of being higher rated by the organization.
So I no longer think Perry will remain in Washington. When Semin returns it will be interesting to see how he produces as they did show some chemistry earlier this season. So we will see.
Beagle is actually more likely to stay but I would say that it is more likely he gets recalled for a playoff push or that he makes the team next year permanently. He isn't going to provide much offense which is what the Caps need. They have Bradley, Gordon, Steckel, King, Hendricks, and Laich already and they all play similar games to Beagle's.
In the playoffs Beags is a more interesting idea but assuming there are no more injuries and the Caps actually get healthy...he should be back in Washington.
But that might only be temporary....
2. The Caps trade for a 2nd line center
There has been speculation since last summer that the Caps would sign or trade for an established 2nd line center. I would say that as of right now...they 100% will do something.
Plenty of bloggers have offered their opinions in the past few weeks on who is available and who the Caps might target. I am not going to do that.
The question for Bears fans is...what will it cost the Caps?
And that depends on what they go after. If you go and get a guy that can fill in for a couple years while the youngsters (Johansson, Eakin, Galiev, Kuznetsov) get ready it will cost you more.
Personally I think there are 3 players that Bears fans should be worried about losing:
Personally I think if you packaged the 3 of them together with a middle rounds pick you could probably get yourself a pretty good 2nd line center from a team that is out of the race this season.
I am not going to pretend that I know what teams would ask for or what you would give up but those 3 players look expendable to me.
Pay attention because the trade deadline is coming up...February 28th, 2011 at 3pm. I 100% the Caps to be active at this time and some Bears (or at least future Bears) could be on the move.
3. Cody Eakin and Dmitri Orlov
Could these two players join the Bears later this season? Absolutely. Eakin joined Hershey late last season for 4 games and then played in 5 more during the playoffs. He followed that up with a very impressive training camp for the Capitals where he almost made the team. They decided that he could return to juniors for one more season and see how he improved.
He began the season with Swift Current in the WHL before being traded to Kootenay for 8 different players or picks. Yes 8. If I remember correctly it was 5 players and 3 draft picks. Kootenay is in the playoff hunt and is likely to make it in which will delay Cody joining the Bears.
I expect him to bring energy and depth to the Bears when they need it most. I would say it is unlikely that we will see him before the Bears regular season is over based on where Kootenay sits in the league but if Hershey manages to stay alive for an extended playoff run we should see Eakin in Hershey this spring.
Orlov is a different case. The biggest issue is that he plays and is under contract in the KHL which doesn't exactly have a wonderful working relationship with the NHL. Reportedly he has already said that if he isn't traded to another KHL team for the playoffs he would like to join the Bears for the AHL playoffs.
As of today he has not been traded and currently resides on the last place team in the KHL. But who knows. He is a talented offensive defenseman who will likely start his career in Hershey no matter when he comes over. If it is this season to provide some depth on the blue-line or in the next couple of seasons he will surely develop into a solid player.
During the playoffs it is as much about the depth and effort of the players as it is about the overall skill. Both Eakin and Orlov show a desire to play for the Bears and will be willing participants to do whatever they can to help the team. Surely Yingst and French would welcome the players with open arms should they make the move.
4. Capitals Goalies
Lately the Caps goalies, Varlamov and Neuvirth, have struggled to stay 100% healthy. Each have dealt with minor lower body injuries and have missed time. But that might not be the bigger issue.
At some point the Caps are going to have to pick one goalie and stick with him. That goes for the short term and the long term. You can't have goalies looking over their shoulder every game wondering if they let in a goal will they get to start tomorrow. It is the same with a quarterback in football...if your starting quarterback is constantly worried about getting replaced after a bad pass he will play more cautious and won't be as effective.
The Canadiens were in that position last season. Halak and Price were both playing well and they needed to pick one. They did and it got them to the Eastern finals. Then they traded him.
The Caps are facing the same situation except theirs goes one step further with Holtby in Hershey. They have 3 goalies that could all likely be #1's in the NHL now or in the near future. Eventually they will trade 1 or 2 of them.
Could that be this season? I doubt it. I don't think they have decided which 1 or 2 they would like to keep. Neuvy and Varly have both played extensively at the NHL level but neither has stood out and neither has stayed healthy. Braden has played a few games in the NHL and has stayed healthy but he hasn't been tested enough in the AHL. Surely the organization would like to see him as the #1 during the Calder Cup playoffs to see how he handles the pressure.
While I don't think they move one of the goalies this spring it is possible. Braden has shown that he could be a serviceable goalie right now in the NHL. And trading one of the young goalies would definitely bring a good second line center or more which the Caps definitely need.
We are probably 1 year to early to worry about this but don't be shocked if it happens this year. The goalie remaining in Washington would feel much better about his position and they would have a definitive #1 for the playoffs. Then they could add a veteran backup or bring Braden up to ride the pine for the playoffs (or Dany Sabourin could do that as he would fill both qualities).
5. Can Hershey catch (and pass) Wilkes-Barre?
This is an easy one to answer...yes. BUT they have to win at least 4 of the 5 remaining games between the teams. If they win 4 of those 5 they would pick up 6 points on the Pens overall and would only need to make up an additional 6 points in their remaining games.
They also have 2 games in hand on the Pens so if they win those they would only need to make up 2 points over the remaining 25 or so games to pass them for the division lead.
Can it be done? Absolutely. Will it? Who knows. But does it matter? Not really. Hershey has won the division 3 of the past 5 years and won the cup twice (the last two). But they finished 2nd in 05-06 before winning the Cup that year. Wilkes-Barre won the division that year as well.
As I mentioned yesterday...the Bears currently are the better team stat wise than the Pens in many categories. The standings is the only difference and that is meaningless once the playoffs arrive. Records are forgotten and the regular season becomes an after thought.
The Bears are a veteran team that knows what it takes to win in May and June. 16 players on this team have won a Calder Cup at some point...some played minor roles at the time but they know what it takes to get there and what it takes to win.
They are ready!
But will that continue? Will they get better? Or will they possible get worse? Those are all questions that will be answered over the next few months.
Here are 5 different things to ask or consider when looking at the remainder of the season. Some of the following items will help Hershey and a couple will hurt. And one is just a simple answer to a common question amongst Bears fans right now.
1. The return of Mathieu Perreault and Jay Beagle.
Obviously this would help the Bears if it were to happen. Right now the Caps are at 22 players will 3 players on IR (Alex Semin, Eric Fehr, and Tom Poti). Semin is expected back as early as tonight. If he returns that would place the Caps at the 23 man ceiling.
Poti could return to practice sometime next week with Fehr returning the following week. Neither would be back in the lineup immediately but they would be close.
So if we assume (and it really is a big assumption based on how the season has gone) that the remaining Caps stay healthy and Poti and Fehr return in say 3 weeks. We COULD see Beagle and/or Perreault back in Hershey by the end of the month.
At one time I thought Perreault could beat out Marcus Johansson for the #2 center spot in Washington but that isn't the case as of now. Perry has only 5 goals and 3 assists in 24 games with the Caps this year. MoJo isn't any better at 6 and 6 over 38 but he is more likely to get the place because of being higher rated by the organization.
So I no longer think Perry will remain in Washington. When Semin returns it will be interesting to see how he produces as they did show some chemistry earlier this season. So we will see.
Beagle is actually more likely to stay but I would say that it is more likely he gets recalled for a playoff push or that he makes the team next year permanently. He isn't going to provide much offense which is what the Caps need. They have Bradley, Gordon, Steckel, King, Hendricks, and Laich already and they all play similar games to Beagle's.
In the playoffs Beags is a more interesting idea but assuming there are no more injuries and the Caps actually get healthy...he should be back in Washington.
But that might only be temporary....
2. The Caps trade for a 2nd line center
There has been speculation since last summer that the Caps would sign or trade for an established 2nd line center. I would say that as of right now...they 100% will do something.
Plenty of bloggers have offered their opinions in the past few weeks on who is available and who the Caps might target. I am not going to do that.
The question for Bears fans is...what will it cost the Caps?
And that depends on what they go after. If you go and get a guy that can fill in for a couple years while the youngsters (Johansson, Eakin, Galiev, Kuznetsov) get ready it will cost you more.
Personally I think there are 3 players that Bears fans should be worried about losing:
- D Patrick McNeill - he is one of the Caps top rated defenseman and could develop into an NHLer but Washington really doesn't need him anytime soon. Plus there are younger guys (Dmitri Orlov, Patrick Wey) who have higher upside.
- RW Francois Bouchard - he has skills, no one can deny that. He might just need a change in scenery. He scored 21 goals with 31 assists last year but has only 6 and 8 this season. He isn't breaking into the Caps lineup anytime soon so he could be trade bait.
- C Mathieu Perreault - I think he had his shot. With the young players the Caps have coming up through the minors and Russia there is lots of talent at the position. He didn't exactly shine with his opportunity and other teams would definitely love to give him a chance.
Personally I think if you packaged the 3 of them together with a middle rounds pick you could probably get yourself a pretty good 2nd line center from a team that is out of the race this season.
I am not going to pretend that I know what teams would ask for or what you would give up but those 3 players look expendable to me.
Pay attention because the trade deadline is coming up...February 28th, 2011 at 3pm. I 100% the Caps to be active at this time and some Bears (or at least future Bears) could be on the move.
3. Cody Eakin and Dmitri Orlov
Could these two players join the Bears later this season? Absolutely. Eakin joined Hershey late last season for 4 games and then played in 5 more during the playoffs. He followed that up with a very impressive training camp for the Capitals where he almost made the team. They decided that he could return to juniors for one more season and see how he improved.
He began the season with Swift Current in the WHL before being traded to Kootenay for 8 different players or picks. Yes 8. If I remember correctly it was 5 players and 3 draft picks. Kootenay is in the playoff hunt and is likely to make it in which will delay Cody joining the Bears.
I expect him to bring energy and depth to the Bears when they need it most. I would say it is unlikely that we will see him before the Bears regular season is over based on where Kootenay sits in the league but if Hershey manages to stay alive for an extended playoff run we should see Eakin in Hershey this spring.
Orlov is a different case. The biggest issue is that he plays and is under contract in the KHL which doesn't exactly have a wonderful working relationship with the NHL. Reportedly he has already said that if he isn't traded to another KHL team for the playoffs he would like to join the Bears for the AHL playoffs.
As of today he has not been traded and currently resides on the last place team in the KHL. But who knows. He is a talented offensive defenseman who will likely start his career in Hershey no matter when he comes over. If it is this season to provide some depth on the blue-line or in the next couple of seasons he will surely develop into a solid player.
During the playoffs it is as much about the depth and effort of the players as it is about the overall skill. Both Eakin and Orlov show a desire to play for the Bears and will be willing participants to do whatever they can to help the team. Surely Yingst and French would welcome the players with open arms should they make the move.
4. Capitals Goalies
Lately the Caps goalies, Varlamov and Neuvirth, have struggled to stay 100% healthy. Each have dealt with minor lower body injuries and have missed time. But that might not be the bigger issue.
At some point the Caps are going to have to pick one goalie and stick with him. That goes for the short term and the long term. You can't have goalies looking over their shoulder every game wondering if they let in a goal will they get to start tomorrow. It is the same with a quarterback in football...if your starting quarterback is constantly worried about getting replaced after a bad pass he will play more cautious and won't be as effective.
The Canadiens were in that position last season. Halak and Price were both playing well and they needed to pick one. They did and it got them to the Eastern finals. Then they traded him.
The Caps are facing the same situation except theirs goes one step further with Holtby in Hershey. They have 3 goalies that could all likely be #1's in the NHL now or in the near future. Eventually they will trade 1 or 2 of them.
Could that be this season? I doubt it. I don't think they have decided which 1 or 2 they would like to keep. Neuvy and Varly have both played extensively at the NHL level but neither has stood out and neither has stayed healthy. Braden has played a few games in the NHL and has stayed healthy but he hasn't been tested enough in the AHL. Surely the organization would like to see him as the #1 during the Calder Cup playoffs to see how he handles the pressure.
While I don't think they move one of the goalies this spring it is possible. Braden has shown that he could be a serviceable goalie right now in the NHL. And trading one of the young goalies would definitely bring a good second line center or more which the Caps definitely need.
We are probably 1 year to early to worry about this but don't be shocked if it happens this year. The goalie remaining in Washington would feel much better about his position and they would have a definitive #1 for the playoffs. Then they could add a veteran backup or bring Braden up to ride the pine for the playoffs (or Dany Sabourin could do that as he would fill both qualities).
5. Can Hershey catch (and pass) Wilkes-Barre?
This is an easy one to answer...yes. BUT they have to win at least 4 of the 5 remaining games between the teams. If they win 4 of those 5 they would pick up 6 points on the Pens overall and would only need to make up an additional 6 points in their remaining games.
They also have 2 games in hand on the Pens so if they win those they would only need to make up 2 points over the remaining 25 or so games to pass them for the division lead.
Can it be done? Absolutely. Will it? Who knows. But does it matter? Not really. Hershey has won the division 3 of the past 5 years and won the cup twice (the last two). But they finished 2nd in 05-06 before winning the Cup that year. Wilkes-Barre won the division that year as well.
As I mentioned yesterday...the Bears currently are the better team stat wise than the Pens in many categories. The standings is the only difference and that is meaningless once the playoffs arrive. Records are forgotten and the regular season becomes an after thought.
The Bears are a veteran team that knows what it takes to win in May and June. 16 players on this team have won a Calder Cup at some point...some played minor roles at the time but they know what it takes to get there and what it takes to win.
They are ready!
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
First Half Recap
The unofficial start to the second half is here. The All-Star game was last night and while it was somewhat entertaining, it was in the end an exhibition game that doesn't matter.
Today the push towards the playoffs begins in earnest. Today, let's look back to see what has gone right so far. And tomorrow we will look forward and some issues that could help or hinder the Bears overall quest.
The first half of the season saw a ton of callups to Washington and injuries to Bears. Hershey was without each of the following players due to injury or recall for extended periods during the first half:
Perreault and Beagle remain in Washington and for the foreseeable future they are likely to stay there. More on that later on (tomorrow).
Despite all the roster uncertainties the Bears still had a good first half.
They are currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 61 points. That is 11 points behind the #1 team in the league, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. The two play 5 times over the final 34 games so it is still possible that Hershey would win the division. But in the end it doesn't matter where you finish the regular season!
Hershey is averaging 3.43 goals per game on the season. That is good for 2nd in the league. And it is better (barely) than the Baby Pens mark of 3.40 goals per game. Portland leagues the lead with 3.46 goals per game.
On the defensive end, Hershey is allowing an average of 2.33 goals per game. That ranks #1 in the AHL at this point. Much of that can be attributed to the 15 goals allowed in the last 9 games. Not a bad run.
The Bears rank in the top 10 in both Power Play (3rd) and Penalty Killing (10th).
There are 4 Bears in the top 20 scorers, Gordon, Willsie, Aucoin, and Greentree.
2 of the top 11 goal scorers in the AHL are Bears, Gordon and Willsie.
Both Dany Sabourin and Holtby rank in the top 12 in goals against average, Dany in 12th, Braden is 2nd.
Braden ranks #2 in save percentage and is tied for 1st in shutouts as well, he has 5 of them.
The numbers show that Hershey is still a top team in the league. With a little roster stability the Bears could and likely will contend in the playoffs.
Let's hand out some mid-season awards....
Best Forward -
Keith Aucoin - he missed 17 games due to injury and/or recall yet he is 3rd on the team in points (43), first in assists (31), and ranks at the top of the league in points per game...a ridiculous 1.48 points per game.
And he has been consistent as well. (This amazes me more than anything else). He has played in 29 games this season. He has at least one point in 25 of those games. He has failed to record a point in ONLY 4 games this season. That is as consistent a scorer as you will likely see.
12 goals, 31 assists, 43 points in 29 games. 14 multi-point games. 1.48 points per game. 3 separate streaks of 6+ games with a point, including a current streak of 8 games.
Best Defenseman -
Lawrence Nycholat - he is averaging .86 points per game...he is a defenseman! That .86 would be higher than the top guy for 11 AHL teams (minimum 10 games played). And it would be in the top 3 or so defenseman in the league.
He was selected for the All-Star game and made an appearance last night but was not able to play due to injury. He is 5th on the team in points (27) and assists (22) despite playing in only 31 games. He also has 5 goals which is 2nd on the team by a defenseman, behind Zach Miscovic's 6.
MVP -
Brian Willsie - he has played in 45 of Hershey's 46 games and has played each of the 3 offensive positions and plays the point on the power play.
He had a slow December with only 7 points in 12 games (still not too bad) but has turned it on in January with 14 points (7 goals and 7 assists) in the 12 games this past month.
He has been the one constant throughout the season. He started the season as the first line left wing. And then everything changed...
45 games played, 19 goals (2nd on team and 11th in league), 25 assists (2nd on team), and 44 points (tied for 1st on team, 11th in the league). 12 power play goals leads the team and the league. +23 rating leads the team and the league.
He has been everywhere and he does it all.
It has been a good first half and I am confident that the second half will be even better.
Today the push towards the playoffs begins in earnest. Today, let's look back to see what has gone right so far. And tomorrow we will look forward and some issues that could help or hinder the Bears overall quest.
The first half of the season saw a ton of callups to Washington and injuries to Bears. Hershey was without each of the following players due to injury or recall for extended periods during the first half:
- Keith Aucoin
- Jay Beagle
- Mathieu Perreault
- Andrew Gordon
- Kyle Greentree
- Andrew Joudrey
- Brian Fahey
- Lawrence Nycholat
- Patrick McNeill
- Sheldon Souray
- Braden Holtby
Perreault and Beagle remain in Washington and for the foreseeable future they are likely to stay there. More on that later on (tomorrow).
Despite all the roster uncertainties the Bears still had a good first half.
They are currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 61 points. That is 11 points behind the #1 team in the league, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. The two play 5 times over the final 34 games so it is still possible that Hershey would win the division. But in the end it doesn't matter where you finish the regular season!
Hershey is averaging 3.43 goals per game on the season. That is good for 2nd in the league. And it is better (barely) than the Baby Pens mark of 3.40 goals per game. Portland leagues the lead with 3.46 goals per game.
On the defensive end, Hershey is allowing an average of 2.33 goals per game. That ranks #1 in the AHL at this point. Much of that can be attributed to the 15 goals allowed in the last 9 games. Not a bad run.
The Bears rank in the top 10 in both Power Play (3rd) and Penalty Killing (10th).
There are 4 Bears in the top 20 scorers, Gordon, Willsie, Aucoin, and Greentree.
2 of the top 11 goal scorers in the AHL are Bears, Gordon and Willsie.
Both Dany Sabourin and Holtby rank in the top 12 in goals against average, Dany in 12th, Braden is 2nd.
Braden ranks #2 in save percentage and is tied for 1st in shutouts as well, he has 5 of them.
The numbers show that Hershey is still a top team in the league. With a little roster stability the Bears could and likely will contend in the playoffs.
Let's hand out some mid-season awards....
Best Forward -
Keith Aucoin - he missed 17 games due to injury and/or recall yet he is 3rd on the team in points (43), first in assists (31), and ranks at the top of the league in points per game...a ridiculous 1.48 points per game.
And he has been consistent as well. (This amazes me more than anything else). He has played in 29 games this season. He has at least one point in 25 of those games. He has failed to record a point in ONLY 4 games this season. That is as consistent a scorer as you will likely see.
12 goals, 31 assists, 43 points in 29 games. 14 multi-point games. 1.48 points per game. 3 separate streaks of 6+ games with a point, including a current streak of 8 games.
Best Defenseman -
Lawrence Nycholat - he is averaging .86 points per game...he is a defenseman! That .86 would be higher than the top guy for 11 AHL teams (minimum 10 games played). And it would be in the top 3 or so defenseman in the league.
He was selected for the All-Star game and made an appearance last night but was not able to play due to injury. He is 5th on the team in points (27) and assists (22) despite playing in only 31 games. He also has 5 goals which is 2nd on the team by a defenseman, behind Zach Miscovic's 6.
MVP -
Brian Willsie - he has played in 45 of Hershey's 46 games and has played each of the 3 offensive positions and plays the point on the power play.
He had a slow December with only 7 points in 12 games (still not too bad) but has turned it on in January with 14 points (7 goals and 7 assists) in the 12 games this past month.
He has been the one constant throughout the season. He started the season as the first line left wing. And then everything changed...
- While Coiner was out...Willsie filled in at first line center.
- While Gordo was in Washington...Willsie filled in on the top line.
- With Perry in Washington...he is playing 2nd line center most nights.
- With Beags in Washington...he is killing penalties.
45 games played, 19 goals (2nd on team and 11th in league), 25 assists (2nd on team), and 44 points (tied for 1st on team, 11th in the league). 12 power play goals leads the team and the league. +23 rating leads the team and the league.
He has been everywhere and he does it all.
It has been a good first half and I am confident that the second half will be even better.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!
*Tomorrow I will have a 2nd half preview including discussion about the NHL trade deadline, what players could be at risk for trades, and when we can expect the reinforcements from Washington...if ever.*
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Bears drop another game
Before I get into the team and their problems last night I want to say how awesome it was to see the reaction and reception for the soldiers that were welcomed home last night. If you weren't there it was something special. Not only did they get a standing ovation from the crowd but even the players on the ice were saluting them by hitting their sticks on the boards and the ice. And this wasn't before the game or between periods but during a timeout in play.
Sometimes we get a little caught up in the sport and the outcomes and forget that it is, quite simply, just a game. Whether a team wins or loses it really doesn't matter in the grander scheme of things. Watching the players acknowledge that last night was amazing.
As someone who has relatives and friends serving our amazing country (as many of us do) it was definitely something I will always remember.
Now onto the game....
Not exactly the way Hershey wanted to kick off the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Worcester came into Hershey and played well enough to get a 3-2 win against a sluggish Bears team.
I have some thoughts on wait ails this team but first I want to say this...it is still early. There are many new pieces and due to call-ups and injuries they have had limited time to play together. I still contend that this team is very talented at the offensive end and can score with anyone.
But goaltending and defense are 2 different issues altogether.
Dany Sabourin and the Defense
First let me say this...Dany is having a hard time controlling rebounds this year. Last night was horrible as he kept directing rebounds right out to the circles and the center of the ice. You just can't do that and expect to win many games.
BUT I don't blame Dany (entirely) for the goals last night. The first goal was a poorly controlled rebound that dropped at the stick of a Shark. My problem here is that whichever defenseman was following him through the zone didn't tie him up. Not sure which defenseman it was but Miscovic and Nycholat were on the ice.
A very similar play happened at the other end but the Sharks defenseman tied Perreault and kept him from making a play.
The 2nd goal was quite simply a horrible play by Souray and Miscovic. The puck was in the neutral zone and yet they still got caught flat footed by the play and Wingels skated in all alone on Sabourin.
And the 3rd goal...you CAN NOT allow a guy to take a one timer from the faceoff circle. Especially at even strength. That is simply unacceptable. If I remember correctly Andrew Joudrey's guy is the one that scored and Joudrey did make an attempt to block the shot but it was already too late.
Sure, Dany could have made some more saves but he did keep Hershey in the game too. I thought he played OK. Unfortunately I don't think he is capable of winning games by himself and that is what Hershey is asking him to do right now. The defense isn't showing up with any consistency.
Communication
It doesn't appear that anyone on this team is communicating with each other. And that might have something to do with the constant line changing due to injuries and call-ups but it should be a simple and easy thing to correct.
It appeared to me that right now there are 5 guys on the ice playing as individuals instead of as a a team. Clever passes where no one is there, one on one moves when they are unnecessary, and (most importantly) NO ONE GOING TO THE NET!
This is always a problem for teams but this Hershey team is really struggling. There were numerous rebounds left by the Worcester goalie last night but there were no Bears around to take advantage. They were all standing on the outside near the boards.
This team has some big guys too. Greentree, Rome, Pinner, GMac, Rechlicz, and Beagle can all get down low and stir up some chances. But most of them don't want to do that.
Last night there were 2 players that seemed to be okay getting their nose dirty...Beagle and Perreault. And Perry is the smallest player on the ice many games but he was in there going after rebounds and trying to make something happen.
No one else.
Line Makeup
With all the injuries and call ups it has been hard to get any lines any continuity but the lines they are running right now are too scattered and inconsistent.
There is no telling when Aucoin will be back so let's make some changes now.
Kyle Greentree is a scorer in the Giroux mold. Not as good a shot and not as quick a skater (never thought I would say that) but a similar player. Why is he on a line with 2 muckers (Beagle and Rome)?
Put Greentree with Perreault and Gordon and move Willsie down to play with Beagle. Willsie is a great player but he is more of the grinder/mucker type than a scorer. Putting Greentree on the top line with open Gordon up for him to perform.
High energy, grinder lines are what this team needs. Maxime Lacroix and Trevor Bruess are playing great right now and that is what they are doing. I actually think Rome should move to this line with Kugryshev moving to the Beagle/Willsie line.
What all these lines need is balance. A scorer, a grinder and a playmaker. Hershey has some of each but not like last years team.
Putting Greentree with a terrific playmaker like Perreault and allowing Gordon to get to the net and score the 'ugly' goals will definitely help that line.
Beagle has a little playmaker in him but will also get in the corners and muck it up. Putting him with Kugryshev and Willsie will result in hustle goals.
Rome, Lacroix, and Bruess aren't going to score a lot but they will control the puck with the cycle and get a few chances while frustrating the opposition. They will draw penalties and do the dirty work down low.
The last line of Pinner, Kane, and Joudrey is much like the Bruess line. I think Pinner could offer more in the way of offense but I don't see the energy on this line as I do the Bruess line. They don't seem interested in cycling and possessing the puck. Which is what they are all built to do.
With some continuity and communication all of these lines could cause problems for any opposition.
Power Play
One more thing and this is for French.
Why the hell is Souray not on the #1 power play unit? I don't care if you have to put Willsie on the wing or the bench if you don't Souray as your only defenseman but he should absolutely be out there firing away.
Put Willsie, Perry and Gordon out as forwards with Nycholat and Souray on the blue line. I guarantee that goals will be scored.
Then the 2nd line could be Beagle, Greentree and Kurgryshev with Collins/Fahey and Miscovic on the point.
TWO solid lines that can score and produce some consistent pressure.
That's it for today. Hopefully Friday and the weekend go better than the last 4 have gone. Getting 40+ shots a game is good IF they are quality chances which most of Hershey's 40+ weren't last night.
Everyone have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!
Sometimes we get a little caught up in the sport and the outcomes and forget that it is, quite simply, just a game. Whether a team wins or loses it really doesn't matter in the grander scheme of things. Watching the players acknowledge that last night was amazing.
As someone who has relatives and friends serving our amazing country (as many of us do) it was definitely something I will always remember.
Now onto the game....
Not exactly the way Hershey wanted to kick off the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Worcester came into Hershey and played well enough to get a 3-2 win against a sluggish Bears team.
I have some thoughts on wait ails this team but first I want to say this...it is still early. There are many new pieces and due to call-ups and injuries they have had limited time to play together. I still contend that this team is very talented at the offensive end and can score with anyone.
But goaltending and defense are 2 different issues altogether.
Dany Sabourin and the Defense
First let me say this...Dany is having a hard time controlling rebounds this year. Last night was horrible as he kept directing rebounds right out to the circles and the center of the ice. You just can't do that and expect to win many games.
BUT I don't blame Dany (entirely) for the goals last night. The first goal was a poorly controlled rebound that dropped at the stick of a Shark. My problem here is that whichever defenseman was following him through the zone didn't tie him up. Not sure which defenseman it was but Miscovic and Nycholat were on the ice.
A very similar play happened at the other end but the Sharks defenseman tied Perreault and kept him from making a play.
The 2nd goal was quite simply a horrible play by Souray and Miscovic. The puck was in the neutral zone and yet they still got caught flat footed by the play and Wingels skated in all alone on Sabourin.
And the 3rd goal...you CAN NOT allow a guy to take a one timer from the faceoff circle. Especially at even strength. That is simply unacceptable. If I remember correctly Andrew Joudrey's guy is the one that scored and Joudrey did make an attempt to block the shot but it was already too late.
Sure, Dany could have made some more saves but he did keep Hershey in the game too. I thought he played OK. Unfortunately I don't think he is capable of winning games by himself and that is what Hershey is asking him to do right now. The defense isn't showing up with any consistency.
Communication
It doesn't appear that anyone on this team is communicating with each other. And that might have something to do with the constant line changing due to injuries and call-ups but it should be a simple and easy thing to correct.
It appeared to me that right now there are 5 guys on the ice playing as individuals instead of as a a team. Clever passes where no one is there, one on one moves when they are unnecessary, and (most importantly) NO ONE GOING TO THE NET!
This is always a problem for teams but this Hershey team is really struggling. There were numerous rebounds left by the Worcester goalie last night but there were no Bears around to take advantage. They were all standing on the outside near the boards.
This team has some big guys too. Greentree, Rome, Pinner, GMac, Rechlicz, and Beagle can all get down low and stir up some chances. But most of them don't want to do that.
Last night there were 2 players that seemed to be okay getting their nose dirty...Beagle and Perreault. And Perry is the smallest player on the ice many games but he was in there going after rebounds and trying to make something happen.
No one else.
Line Makeup
With all the injuries and call ups it has been hard to get any lines any continuity but the lines they are running right now are too scattered and inconsistent.
There is no telling when Aucoin will be back so let's make some changes now.
Kyle Greentree is a scorer in the Giroux mold. Not as good a shot and not as quick a skater (never thought I would say that) but a similar player. Why is he on a line with 2 muckers (Beagle and Rome)?
Put Greentree with Perreault and Gordon and move Willsie down to play with Beagle. Willsie is a great player but he is more of the grinder/mucker type than a scorer. Putting Greentree on the top line with open Gordon up for him to perform.
High energy, grinder lines are what this team needs. Maxime Lacroix and Trevor Bruess are playing great right now and that is what they are doing. I actually think Rome should move to this line with Kugryshev moving to the Beagle/Willsie line.
What all these lines need is balance. A scorer, a grinder and a playmaker. Hershey has some of each but not like last years team.
Putting Greentree with a terrific playmaker like Perreault and allowing Gordon to get to the net and score the 'ugly' goals will definitely help that line.
Beagle has a little playmaker in him but will also get in the corners and muck it up. Putting him with Kugryshev and Willsie will result in hustle goals.
Rome, Lacroix, and Bruess aren't going to score a lot but they will control the puck with the cycle and get a few chances while frustrating the opposition. They will draw penalties and do the dirty work down low.
The last line of Pinner, Kane, and Joudrey is much like the Bruess line. I think Pinner could offer more in the way of offense but I don't see the energy on this line as I do the Bruess line. They don't seem interested in cycling and possessing the puck. Which is what they are all built to do.
With some continuity and communication all of these lines could cause problems for any opposition.
Power Play
One more thing and this is for French.
Why the hell is Souray not on the #1 power play unit? I don't care if you have to put Willsie on the wing or the bench if you don't Souray as your only defenseman but he should absolutely be out there firing away.
Put Willsie, Perry and Gordon out as forwards with Nycholat and Souray on the blue line. I guarantee that goals will be scored.
Then the 2nd line could be Beagle, Greentree and Kurgryshev with Collins/Fahey and Miscovic on the point.
TWO solid lines that can score and produce some consistent pressure.
That's it for today. Hopefully Friday and the weekend go better than the last 4 have gone. Getting 40+ shots a game is good IF they are quality chances which most of Hershey's 40+ weren't last night.
Everyone have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Pens getting best of Bears early
Are the Pens going to dominate the East division like Hershey did last year?
That is a question being asked by a few people lately.
The typical answer is...its too early to know.
But the honest answer is....hell no.
Sure the Pens are 8-0-0-0 and all of those have come against the division. That definitely gives them a good start on the East division race but it isn't necessarily indicative of how good a team they really are.
In fact I would say that they are actually weak offensively at this point in the season. Defense has carried them so far. 15 goals allowed in 8 games is impressive...especially considering that 5 of their game were against teams that average 3 or more goals per game (Hershey averages 4, Charlotte 3).
But outside of Hershey they haven't played anyone with a winning record. Okay...technically Binghamton has a winning record, 4-3-1-1, but in reality it is 4-5. They have played the Phantoms twice, Charlotte twice, and Bingo once. 3 teams that are not in the top 8 in the conference at this point including 2 (Adir and Char) that have a combined 5 wins in 22 games (5 wins!! ouch).
And their dominance of Hershey is not exactly unheard of...in 08-09 they won 5 straight against Hershey, outscoring the Bears 23-15. But outside of one game, a 6-2 Pens win, all the games were one goal games including 2 shootout wins.
This year...through 3 games...the Pens have a 6-2 win and 2 other one goal games..including a shootout victory.
See any similarities?
Remind me how that season turned out....oh yeah...the 10th Calder Cup in franchise history!
It is way too early in the season to worry about anything let alone the Pens dominance in 3 games against the Bears this season. Hershey will be fine, both against the Pens and in the division.
That is a question being asked by a few people lately.
The typical answer is...its too early to know.
But the honest answer is....hell no.
Sure the Pens are 8-0-0-0 and all of those have come against the division. That definitely gives them a good start on the East division race but it isn't necessarily indicative of how good a team they really are.
In fact I would say that they are actually weak offensively at this point in the season. Defense has carried them so far. 15 goals allowed in 8 games is impressive...especially considering that 5 of their game were against teams that average 3 or more goals per game (Hershey averages 4, Charlotte 3).
But outside of Hershey they haven't played anyone with a winning record. Okay...technically Binghamton has a winning record, 4-3-1-1, but in reality it is 4-5. They have played the Phantoms twice, Charlotte twice, and Bingo once. 3 teams that are not in the top 8 in the conference at this point including 2 (Adir and Char) that have a combined 5 wins in 22 games (5 wins!! ouch).
And their dominance of Hershey is not exactly unheard of...in 08-09 they won 5 straight against Hershey, outscoring the Bears 23-15. But outside of one game, a 6-2 Pens win, all the games were one goal games including 2 shootout wins.
This year...through 3 games...the Pens have a 6-2 win and 2 other one goal games..including a shootout victory.
See any similarities?
Remind me how that season turned out....oh yeah...the 10th Calder Cup in franchise history!
It is way too early in the season to worry about anything let alone the Pens dominance in 3 games against the Bears this season. Hershey will be fine, both against the Pens and in the division.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Another successful 3 in 3
What an interesting weekend we just witnessed. 3 different games, 3 different opponents, and 3 different Bears teams. Or so it seemed.
Friday started off poorly as Hershey fell behind 2-0 early in the 2nd before springing to life to pick up a 4-3 overtime win in Syracuse.
Saturday was one that we would all love to forget. A 6-2 handling on home ice at the hands of the Baby Pens.
Sunday was an exciting game to see as goals came fast and furious throughout the first as Hershey skated to a 7-3 win over Manchester.
It was an interesting weekend for Hershey goaltenders as well. Braden Holtby remained on recall to Washington which meant Todd Ford and Dany Sabourin would be in goal for Hershey.
Neither goalie looked great and both finished with a win, Sabourin's on Friday and Ford's on Sunday, with an ugly performance stuck in the middle. Sabourin got the start against the Pens but was pulled early in the 1st period after giving up 3 goals on 7 shots. Ford played a little better allowing 3 goals on 16 shots. Overall it was a poor performance across the board for the Bears Saturday night.
But they returned the favor on Sunday to the Monarchs. Manchester's starting goalie, Jeff Zartoff, managed to hang in for about 15 minutes but that was only because Hershey didn't get many shots on him up to that point. At one point Hershey had 3 goals on 3 shots. Zartoff ended up giving up 4 goals on 5 shots before being pulled in favor of youngster Martin Jones. Jones played much better as he allowed only 1 more goal on 14 shots.
It wasn't enough though as Hershey held Manchester to 3 goals and picked up 2 empty netters in the closing minutes.
The weekend ended up a success as the Bears went 2-1 for the second weekend in a row. If they could just find a way to beat those damn Penguins...(more on that coming in a couple days).
One thing I wanted to say though is this....it is still early. I saw a comment somewhere that this team is mediocre at best and another asking if the Pens were that good or is Hershey just bad.
It's EARLY!
Hershey has only played 10 games....only 70 to go!
They have dealt with injuries (Souray, McNeill, Rechlicz)....
They have had a fair share of callups (Perreault, Beagle, Holtby, Fahey)....
And they are still breaking in a relatively new lineup (Greentree, Willsie, Nycholat).
And please keep this in mind too...last season was incredible. It was a once in a lifetime kind of season. All the pieces fell into place as Hershey set record after record on their way to the Cup.
Add to that 3 Finals appearances in the previous 4 years (4 in 5 total) and I think we could all say that we are kind of spoiled. Most teams don't see the Calder Cup Finals at all and we have been watching hockey into mid June for a while.
This years Bears team is good. I said to start the year that I think offensively they could compete with last years team (assuming call ups don't kill the team) but defensively and in goal there are serious concerns. They can no longer rely on Alzner and Carlson on the blueline or Neuvirth in net. And considering the durability of a certain goalie in Washington I am not sure Holtby will be around too often either.
This team is skilled and can play with anyone. Yes they have lost to Wilkes Barre 3 times to start the season. And yes the Pens are undefeated after 8 games. And yes they have come out slow multiple times already.
But all of those things happened in the past 2 years as well....and guess what happened come Spring...
Hershey was celebrating with the Calder Cup in mid June.
There is lots of hockey to play yet in 2010-11.
Friday started off poorly as Hershey fell behind 2-0 early in the 2nd before springing to life to pick up a 4-3 overtime win in Syracuse.
Saturday was one that we would all love to forget. A 6-2 handling on home ice at the hands of the Baby Pens.
Sunday was an exciting game to see as goals came fast and furious throughout the first as Hershey skated to a 7-3 win over Manchester.
It was an interesting weekend for Hershey goaltenders as well. Braden Holtby remained on recall to Washington which meant Todd Ford and Dany Sabourin would be in goal for Hershey.
Neither goalie looked great and both finished with a win, Sabourin's on Friday and Ford's on Sunday, with an ugly performance stuck in the middle. Sabourin got the start against the Pens but was pulled early in the 1st period after giving up 3 goals on 7 shots. Ford played a little better allowing 3 goals on 16 shots. Overall it was a poor performance across the board for the Bears Saturday night.
But they returned the favor on Sunday to the Monarchs. Manchester's starting goalie, Jeff Zartoff, managed to hang in for about 15 minutes but that was only because Hershey didn't get many shots on him up to that point. At one point Hershey had 3 goals on 3 shots. Zartoff ended up giving up 4 goals on 5 shots before being pulled in favor of youngster Martin Jones. Jones played much better as he allowed only 1 more goal on 14 shots.
It wasn't enough though as Hershey held Manchester to 3 goals and picked up 2 empty netters in the closing minutes.
The weekend ended up a success as the Bears went 2-1 for the second weekend in a row. If they could just find a way to beat those damn Penguins...(more on that coming in a couple days).
One thing I wanted to say though is this....it is still early. I saw a comment somewhere that this team is mediocre at best and another asking if the Pens were that good or is Hershey just bad.
It's EARLY!
Hershey has only played 10 games....only 70 to go!
They have dealt with injuries (Souray, McNeill, Rechlicz)....
They have had a fair share of callups (Perreault, Beagle, Holtby, Fahey)....
And they are still breaking in a relatively new lineup (Greentree, Willsie, Nycholat).
And please keep this in mind too...last season was incredible. It was a once in a lifetime kind of season. All the pieces fell into place as Hershey set record after record on their way to the Cup.
Add to that 3 Finals appearances in the previous 4 years (4 in 5 total) and I think we could all say that we are kind of spoiled. Most teams don't see the Calder Cup Finals at all and we have been watching hockey into mid June for a while.
This years Bears team is good. I said to start the year that I think offensively they could compete with last years team (assuming call ups don't kill the team) but defensively and in goal there are serious concerns. They can no longer rely on Alzner and Carlson on the blueline or Neuvirth in net. And considering the durability of a certain goalie in Washington I am not sure Holtby will be around too often either.
This team is skilled and can play with anyone. Yes they have lost to Wilkes Barre 3 times to start the season. And yes the Pens are undefeated after 8 games. And yes they have come out slow multiple times already.
But all of those things happened in the past 2 years as well....and guess what happened come Spring...
Hershey was celebrating with the Calder Cup in mid June.
There is lots of hockey to play yet in 2010-11.
LET'S GO BEARS!!!
Sunday, January 24, 2010
Bears again score 8 against Moose
I don't even know what to say anymore. I mean for the second straight game the Bears scored 8 goals in a completely dominating performance.
It all started when Manitoba got an early goal (about 1 minute in). Hershey did not take that well and decided to drop the hammer on the Moose. From then on the game was not in question. It was almost like the Moose players were standing still on half the plays.
This team is playing with extreme confidence and there is nothing that can derail them right now except themselves. Over confidence would be a worry for many teams but there are 2 reasons that I see to prevent that from being an issue....
One is the veteran leadership on this team. Add to that the fact that they all played together last season when they did hit some slumps. They know how it can fall apart and they seem to be fighting against it.
The second reason is the depth. Even if a line like Gordon, Giroux, and Aucoin were to come out and struggle for a few minutes there are 3 more lines to pick up the slack. The Bourque, Perreault, and Bouchard line is humming along playing exceptionally as are the other two lines with guys like Beagle, Wilson, Kane, Pinizzotto, Joudrey, and Osala.
And then there is the defense and goaltending. No offense to Daren Machesney but last season he was a liability for Hershey. When he was in net the defense couldn't rely on him. Braden Holtby however is a goalie that you can rely on. He makes every stop he can, gets in the opposing forwards faces, and is always ready to play.
Honestly I have been following this team very closely over the past 3 seasons since I started this blog and there is no way that at any point in that time they were playing this good. It is just phenomenal to watch the play at both ends. I mean it literally looks like the opposing players are just standing there and watching.
Last night on a power play, not sure the period but I think the second, I watched Giroux (I think it was him) skate complete circles around the offensive zone with no Moose players catching him before he found a place to shoot or pass from.
The passing last night was ridiculous. You aren't supposed to be able to do what they did against that level of competition. Yet the Bears did it and they made it look easy.
This is not a team that you can knock out early with an opening minute goal. That only fires them up even more. This is a team that thrives on another teams intensity. The more the other team is ready to play the better Hershey seems to play.
14 straight home wins. Multiple players getting ready to tie or break career bests in scoring. 4 of the last 5 games have seen 7+ goals. They have won 17 of their last 18 games.
And all this without the goalie that started the season as the reigning playoff MVP and the Bears #1, Michal Neuvirth.
How can you stop a team this balanced? Last year the defense and goaltending were known weaknesses. Teams were able to exploit them on occasion and get some wins. Last years team went through a couple patches where the top line was the only line to score.
This year...none of that.
Last year Giroux had 97 points while Aucoin had 96. This year both are on pace to break 100 points, Aucoin would get 116 while Giroux would get 110 if they play in all the remaining games and average the same points per game they have now.
To another franchise looking in here it can't even seem fair. You aren't supposed to be this good in the minor leagues. And it isn't like there are loads of veterans and a shortage of prospects on this team. Gordon, Bouchard, Bourque, Perreault, Wilson, Osala, Pinner, Carlson, McNeill, Beagle....they can all be considered legitimate prospects. Sure you have guys like Aucoin, Giroux, Kane, and Helmer but that isn't that many big time AHL free agents. And while Aucoin has had lots of scoring success elsewhere (a 99 points season for Albany) most of the others have had their best seasons with Hershey.
I don't know. The one thing I am sure of is enjoy it while its here. Enjoy another playoff run, enjoy the records that will fall this spring. Because eventually all teams have down years and all teams break up or fall apart. Many of the current team are free agents after the season including Aucoin, Giroux, Wilson, Beagle, Bourque, Gordon, Kane, and surely others are all either unrestricted or restricted free agents.
Will they leave? I don't know. But guys like Gordon, Aucoin, and Giroux are going to want another shot at the NHL I would think...I mean wouldn't you? Bourque got a taste of it this year and he might get a shot elsewhere although who knows.
Either way, enjoy this team now because there are no guarantees that they will be together next season. Last night the attendance figures were a new regular season record for Hershey. I encourage everyone to help break that record again this season. This team is definitely worth the price of admission.
Last nights game....
Hershey lit up former Bear goaltender Daren Machesney for 8 goals after ringing up 8 against Manitoba's #1 Cory Schneider on Friday night.
Hershey got goals from Keith Aucoin (24th and 25th of the season), Oskar Osala (12), Jay Beagle (9), John Carlson (2), Andrew Gordon (21), Chris Bourque (13), and Boyd Kane (16).
Braden Holtby made 31 saves on 33 shots to pick up yet another win.
As for the stars of the game....
the whole team to be honest. One of the most complete hockey games I have seen from any Bears team. With the exception of the first minute and a half they played phenomenally all game.
As for grading the performance....
A+ for all. Absolutely dominating performance of a team that absolutely wanted to beat Hershey in the worst way. Completely devastated the Moose confidence last night by scoring 3 times in a 5 minute span after Manitoba scored the first goal.
All aspects of the game showed up and performed last night....exceptional.
It all started when Manitoba got an early goal (about 1 minute in). Hershey did not take that well and decided to drop the hammer on the Moose. From then on the game was not in question. It was almost like the Moose players were standing still on half the plays.
This team is playing with extreme confidence and there is nothing that can derail them right now except themselves. Over confidence would be a worry for many teams but there are 2 reasons that I see to prevent that from being an issue....
One is the veteran leadership on this team. Add to that the fact that they all played together last season when they did hit some slumps. They know how it can fall apart and they seem to be fighting against it.
The second reason is the depth. Even if a line like Gordon, Giroux, and Aucoin were to come out and struggle for a few minutes there are 3 more lines to pick up the slack. The Bourque, Perreault, and Bouchard line is humming along playing exceptionally as are the other two lines with guys like Beagle, Wilson, Kane, Pinizzotto, Joudrey, and Osala.
And then there is the defense and goaltending. No offense to Daren Machesney but last season he was a liability for Hershey. When he was in net the defense couldn't rely on him. Braden Holtby however is a goalie that you can rely on. He makes every stop he can, gets in the opposing forwards faces, and is always ready to play.
Honestly I have been following this team very closely over the past 3 seasons since I started this blog and there is no way that at any point in that time they were playing this good. It is just phenomenal to watch the play at both ends. I mean it literally looks like the opposing players are just standing there and watching.
Last night on a power play, not sure the period but I think the second, I watched Giroux (I think it was him) skate complete circles around the offensive zone with no Moose players catching him before he found a place to shoot or pass from.
The passing last night was ridiculous. You aren't supposed to be able to do what they did against that level of competition. Yet the Bears did it and they made it look easy.
This is not a team that you can knock out early with an opening minute goal. That only fires them up even more. This is a team that thrives on another teams intensity. The more the other team is ready to play the better Hershey seems to play.
14 straight home wins. Multiple players getting ready to tie or break career bests in scoring. 4 of the last 5 games have seen 7+ goals. They have won 17 of their last 18 games.
And all this without the goalie that started the season as the reigning playoff MVP and the Bears #1, Michal Neuvirth.
How can you stop a team this balanced? Last year the defense and goaltending were known weaknesses. Teams were able to exploit them on occasion and get some wins. Last years team went through a couple patches where the top line was the only line to score.
This year...none of that.
Last year Giroux had 97 points while Aucoin had 96. This year both are on pace to break 100 points, Aucoin would get 116 while Giroux would get 110 if they play in all the remaining games and average the same points per game they have now.
To another franchise looking in here it can't even seem fair. You aren't supposed to be this good in the minor leagues. And it isn't like there are loads of veterans and a shortage of prospects on this team. Gordon, Bouchard, Bourque, Perreault, Wilson, Osala, Pinner, Carlson, McNeill, Beagle....they can all be considered legitimate prospects. Sure you have guys like Aucoin, Giroux, Kane, and Helmer but that isn't that many big time AHL free agents. And while Aucoin has had lots of scoring success elsewhere (a 99 points season for Albany) most of the others have had their best seasons with Hershey.
I don't know. The one thing I am sure of is enjoy it while its here. Enjoy another playoff run, enjoy the records that will fall this spring. Because eventually all teams have down years and all teams break up or fall apart. Many of the current team are free agents after the season including Aucoin, Giroux, Wilson, Beagle, Bourque, Gordon, Kane, and surely others are all either unrestricted or restricted free agents.
Will they leave? I don't know. But guys like Gordon, Aucoin, and Giroux are going to want another shot at the NHL I would think...I mean wouldn't you? Bourque got a taste of it this year and he might get a shot elsewhere although who knows.
Either way, enjoy this team now because there are no guarantees that they will be together next season. Last night the attendance figures were a new regular season record for Hershey. I encourage everyone to help break that record again this season. This team is definitely worth the price of admission.
Last nights game....
Hershey lit up former Bear goaltender Daren Machesney for 8 goals after ringing up 8 against Manitoba's #1 Cory Schneider on Friday night.
Hershey got goals from Keith Aucoin (24th and 25th of the season), Oskar Osala (12), Jay Beagle (9), John Carlson (2), Andrew Gordon (21), Chris Bourque (13), and Boyd Kane (16).
Braden Holtby made 31 saves on 33 shots to pick up yet another win.
As for the stars of the game....
the whole team to be honest. One of the most complete hockey games I have seen from any Bears team. With the exception of the first minute and a half they played phenomenally all game.
As for grading the performance....
A+ for all. Absolutely dominating performance of a team that absolutely wanted to beat Hershey in the worst way. Completely devastated the Moose confidence last night by scoring 3 times in a 5 minute span after Manitoba scored the first goal.
All aspects of the game showed up and performed last night....exceptional.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Bears at midseason
Hershey is on pace for all sorts of records including AHL records for wins, points, and winning percentage. Not too bad for a team that won the Calder Cup last year.
But all that winning means absolutely nothing when it comes to the playoffs. The team that owns most of those records didn't make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs. So maybe a little adversity is a good thing.
I doubt much adversity will be found from teams within the division this season. Currently the Bears are 16 points ahead of 2nd place Albany while 4 of the 7 division teams are either at .500 or below.
That is distinctly different from recent years where the East division dominated in not only the regular season but the playoffs as well. That will likely not be the case this season as the East is likely to only get 3 teams in the playoffs as the Atlantic division is positioned right now to get 5 teams in. Which means Hershey could be playing a team like Portland or Bridgeport in the first round come April.
The Bears are again one of the most balanced and talented offensive teams in the league. The difference between this years team and last years team is that the 09-10 Bears are great defensively as well.
We all remember the struggles during the season last year when Hershey was at the top in goals scored and power play success but at the bottom in goals allowed and penalty killing. But this year is different...while the same. Hershey is #1 in goals scored with 173, tied for #1 in goals allowed with 97, 1st in penalty killing, and 3rd in power play success.
Think about that for a minute....the Bears have a goal differential of 76. 76!! Last years club ended the season with a +56 goal differential. Who knows what this years club will finish with.
You want more?
The Bears 173 goals right now is 28 higher than the next closest team (Lowell has 145). The Bears have allowed only 3 more goals than the Phantoms have scored this entire season!
Hershey has won 6 games MORE than ANY OTHER TEAM in the AHL this season. And they haven't lost at home in 12 games. Which is a new franchise record...surprising huh?
This team is phenomenal. If you have the chance to see them play...TAKE IT! The likelihood of this team being together next season is highly unlikely. (although I did say that last year too)
One more great stat for you....
On the subject of getting the chance to see this team...I can see that many of you are. Hershey is again leading the league in attendance with 8,978 fans PER GAME. That is a full 1,418 MORE than second place Manitoba.
Of the other 28 teams in the AHL only 11 have averaged more than HALF of Hershey's average. Meaning only 11 teams in the AHL average more than 4,500 fans per game.
You should be very proud of those numbers. This will be the 4th straight season that Hershey will lead the league in attendance.
Very impressive indeed.
Enjoy the second half of the season!
But all that winning means absolutely nothing when it comes to the playoffs. The team that owns most of those records didn't make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs. So maybe a little adversity is a good thing.
I doubt much adversity will be found from teams within the division this season. Currently the Bears are 16 points ahead of 2nd place Albany while 4 of the 7 division teams are either at .500 or below.
That is distinctly different from recent years where the East division dominated in not only the regular season but the playoffs as well. That will likely not be the case this season as the East is likely to only get 3 teams in the playoffs as the Atlantic division is positioned right now to get 5 teams in. Which means Hershey could be playing a team like Portland or Bridgeport in the first round come April.
The Bears are again one of the most balanced and talented offensive teams in the league. The difference between this years team and last years team is that the 09-10 Bears are great defensively as well.
We all remember the struggles during the season last year when Hershey was at the top in goals scored and power play success but at the bottom in goals allowed and penalty killing. But this year is different...while the same. Hershey is #1 in goals scored with 173, tied for #1 in goals allowed with 97, 1st in penalty killing, and 3rd in power play success.
Think about that for a minute....the Bears have a goal differential of 76. 76!! Last years club ended the season with a +56 goal differential. Who knows what this years club will finish with.
You want more?
The Bears 173 goals right now is 28 higher than the next closest team (Lowell has 145). The Bears have allowed only 3 more goals than the Phantoms have scored this entire season!
Hershey has won 6 games MORE than ANY OTHER TEAM in the AHL this season. And they haven't lost at home in 12 games. Which is a new franchise record...surprising huh?
This team is phenomenal. If you have the chance to see them play...TAKE IT! The likelihood of this team being together next season is highly unlikely. (although I did say that last year too)
One more great stat for you....
On the subject of getting the chance to see this team...I can see that many of you are. Hershey is again leading the league in attendance with 8,978 fans PER GAME. That is a full 1,418 MORE than second place Manitoba.
Of the other 28 teams in the AHL only 11 have averaged more than HALF of Hershey's average. Meaning only 11 teams in the AHL average more than 4,500 fans per game.
You should be very proud of those numbers. This will be the 4th straight season that Hershey will lead the league in attendance.
Very impressive indeed.
Enjoy the second half of the season!
Monday, January 4, 2010
Bears make it 10 in a row
Apparently Hershey took getting shutout 3-0 in Albany a little personally. Since that game on December 11 Hershey has won 1o straight. And most of the games haven't been close. Hershey has scored 47 goals to the opponents 19 during that span.
They have balanced out their winning as well. 7 of the wins are at home, 3 are on the road, against 7 different opponents, including 6 wins (against 5 different teams) within the East division.
The Bears have opened up a nice cushion in the East division as well...a 15 point cushion over second place Albany. They have also opened up a lead on the rest of the AHL. They have 5 points more than any other team in the league.
Not that any of that means anything this time of year but it is still nice to look at. Hershey's next 4 games are on the road including this Friday and Saturday in Winnipeg against the team they beat in the Calder Cup finals back in June, the Manitoba Moose.
They have balanced out their winning as well. 7 of the wins are at home, 3 are on the road, against 7 different opponents, including 6 wins (against 5 different teams) within the East division.
The Bears have opened up a nice cushion in the East division as well...a 15 point cushion over second place Albany. They have also opened up a lead on the rest of the AHL. They have 5 points more than any other team in the league.
Not that any of that means anything this time of year but it is still nice to look at. Hershey's next 4 games are on the road including this Friday and Saturday in Winnipeg against the team they beat in the Calder Cup finals back in June, the Manitoba Moose.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
A few facts to consider
If you don't subscribe to the Patriot News or didn't get the chance to read it yesterday Tim Leone had some nice statistics to look at and consider. I will share them with you here....
It gets even more impressive:
And the following stats are even better (in my opinion)...especially if you consider last seasons struggles (albeit minor in the end):
And to the fans:
Just wanted to mention again that I am not responsible for these stats...I borrowed them from Tim Leone. Thanks Tim for doing the research.
- For the fifth time in Bears history they have won 20 games in the first 30. The other 4 teams made it to the Calder Cup finals with 3 of them winning including last years team and the 96-97 team.
- The Bears lead the league in goals. They did this last year too.
- But this year (unlike last year) they are also really good at defense allowing the 2nd fewest goals in the league.
It gets even more impressive:
- Alexander Giroux is second in the league in scoring with 33 points. And he has only played in 21 of Hershey's 31 games....not too bad.
- Oh and Andrew Gordon and Keith Aucoin, each with 32 points, are tied for 3rd overall. Yes that means 3 of the leagues top 4 players reside in Hershey.
- Gordon is tied for the league lead with 15 goals and is tied for second in power play goals with 8. Aucoin is tied for second in goals with 14.
- John Carlson leads all defensemen in scoring (24 points), is 3rd in rookie scoring, and is 4th among all players in assists with 23. He is also tied for the league lead with a +17 rating.
- Steve Pinizzotto is tied for the AHL lead with 3 short handed goals.
- Michal Neuvirth is 4th in save percentage and 5th in goals against average.
And the following stats are even better (in my opinion)...especially if you consider last seasons struggles (albeit minor in the end):
- Hershey's TOP RANKED penalty kill has given up only 11 goals....and they have scored 7 shorties! Only 11 goals in 31 games...very impressive.
- The power play is #6 overall and since Chris Bourque has been back they have been converting 31.3% of their chances which would be #1 in the league.
- The Bears are 3rd in the AHL in road points percentage and is tied for 3rd in home points percentage.
And to the fans:
- Hershey AGAIN leads the league in attendance, averaging 8,718 per game. And if you are wondering how close the 2nd place team is....Manitoba is averaging almost 1,500 less. That is quite the difference.
Just wanted to mention again that I am not responsible for these stats...I borrowed them from Tim Leone. Thanks Tim for doing the research.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Goalie Trouble??
Out of all the possible problems facing the Bears this season I didn't think one of them would be their starting goalie. But I think it is.
Michal Neuvirth had an amazing postseason last year on his way to playoff MVP. Then he followed that up with an impressive camp where he almost beat out Semyon Varlamov for the backup role in Washington until he got hurt.
And then he got sent to Hershey.
In Hershey....Neuvy is struggling. Sure the defense hasn't been stellar and have given up plenty of easy chances to the opposition. But guess what...the same defense has been playing in front of Braden Holtby and Jason Bacashihua as well and they are still playing well.
It looks like Neuvy is one of two things...upset about being in Hershey and not playing to the best of his abilities OR he is overconfident and getting beat because of it.
I think it is the second option. I think Neuvy came down to Hershey after a great camp against NHL players and a great postseason and thought it was going to be easy. He is a young kid who played his first pro hockey last season. So those thoughts are to be somewhat expected. But now he has to realize that it isn't easy and he needs to bring his A game every single time out on the ice.
Hopefully we will see that happen sooner or later. I am sure the organization is hoping to see it as he is expected to backup Varly in Washington next season.
If he doesn't figure it out soon I would expect to see a lot more of Bacashihua for a while.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Depth...You Want Depth!
Last season most of us would agree was one of the deepest most talented Hershey teams ever. They played 4 lines every night all night which was truly the biggest difference over other teams. When your skating 4 lines while other teams are only skating 3 that gives you a distinct advantage.
After the season I was sure we would see lots of changes to the roster. I didn't think Bourque, Giroux or Joudrey would come back. And I wasn't sure about Alzner and Carlson and where they would end up in 09-10.
But I figured that this years Hershey team would be a little less talented and a little less deep. Well I might have been mistaken.
Looking at the roster I honestly think this team might be DEEPER then last years team. Assuming Bourque and Laing make the Caps opening night roster (which is VERY possible) this would be the potential opening night lineup in Hershey:
Goalies:
That is an amazing roster. But now consider the players NOT mentioned there. Oh and if you count that includes 2 extra defense and 2 extra forwards for a complete lineup!
Goalies:
Any of the players just listed would start for damn near EVERY OTHER TEAM IN THE AHL! Dubuc scored 35 goals in 49 games last season for South Carolina. And by my count he is not in the top 14 forwards on the roster.
That is depth.
Obviously lots of things can still happen. Beagle is playing great during camp and is going to make it hard to send him back down. But facts are facts and there are currently 11 forward spots locked up (not counting Flash and Fehr) in Washington so Beagle is going to have to beat out an incumbent.
Any way you look at it this team might not be as strong on the first line...especially if Giroux doesn't come back...but top to bottom this team is (on paper at least) better than last years team.
After the season I was sure we would see lots of changes to the roster. I didn't think Bourque, Giroux or Joudrey would come back. And I wasn't sure about Alzner and Carlson and where they would end up in 09-10.
But I figured that this years Hershey team would be a little less talented and a little less deep. Well I might have been mistaken.
Looking at the roster I honestly think this team might be DEEPER then last years team. Assuming Bourque and Laing make the Caps opening night roster (which is VERY possible) this would be the potential opening night lineup in Hershey:
Goalies:
- Michael Neuvirth
- Jason Bacashihua
- Karl Alzner
- John Carlson
- Tyler Sloan
- Sean Collins
- Patrick McNeill
- Bryan Helmer
- Greg Amadio
- Dylan Yeo
- Keith Aucoin
- Alexander Giroux
- Andrew Gordon
- Kyle Wilson
- Jay Beagle
- Steve Pinizzotto
- Oskar Osala
- Mathieu Perreault
- Francois Bouchard
- Boyd Kane
- Brandon Sugden
- Anton Gustaffson
- Andrew Joudrey
- Darren Reid
That is an amazing roster. But now consider the players NOT mentioned there. Oh and if you count that includes 2 extra defense and 2 extra forwards for a complete lineup!
Goalies:
- Braden Holtby
- Zach Miscovic
- Victor Dovgan
- Josh Godfrey
- Josh Hauswirth
- Michael Dubuc
- Trevor Bruess
- Grant McNeill
- Joe Finley
Any of the players just listed would start for damn near EVERY OTHER TEAM IN THE AHL! Dubuc scored 35 goals in 49 games last season for South Carolina. And by my count he is not in the top 14 forwards on the roster.
That is depth.
Obviously lots of things can still happen. Beagle is playing great during camp and is going to make it hard to send him back down. But facts are facts and there are currently 11 forward spots locked up (not counting Flash and Fehr) in Washington so Beagle is going to have to beat out an incumbent.
Any way you look at it this team might not be as strong on the first line...especially if Giroux doesn't come back...but top to bottom this team is (on paper at least) better than last years team.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Bears Drop Another
Here are the 3 key things you need to know from last night's shootout loss at home vs Springfield.
1. Simeon Varlamov is the ONLY reason the Bears got 1 point out of the game. He made many great saves and the two goals weren't totally his fault.
2. The offense was okay but needs to be much better. 2 goals against a bad team at home is not enough. Sure the goalie made big saves but the forwards didn't seem to be interested in playing the way they need to play.
3. The defense was TERRIBLE! If that wouldn't have been for Varly the score could have been 7-2 Falcons. It was horrible.
I have done my fair share of complaining over the past month about the defense and the struggles of this team is not all on them. For instance, Alexandre Giroux, what the hell were you doing in the third period last night? You had 2 horrible plays. The first was a 3 on 1 and you waited way too long to make a pass and you guys didn't even get a shot. Either pass or shoot but you have to do it before you get to the goalie. And the other problem was on the power play. You were WAY out of position. If you were over around the faceoff dot where you are supposed to be you would have had a goal. But instead you are hanging out between the circles with the defensemen causing confusion. TERRIBLE!
Now back to the defense. Tyler Sloan was horrible last night. The first goal happened cause Sloan had NO idea there was a guy skating in behind him. Tyler, watch Brian Pothier play or Karl Alzner, they ALWAYS know where the opposition is and where they are going.
Oh and to Sami Lepisto and Sloan, why are you going deep into the corners with the puck in the offensive zone? Let me give you guys a piece of advice if you EVER want to last in the NHL....NEITHER of you is Mike Green or Tom Poti. DO NOT CARRY THE PUCK DEEP!! And don't jump into the play when you are skating 4 on 4 in overtime either. Sami jumped in last night and forced Coiner to take a penalty cause our defense isn't doing its job.
My advice and opinion is that unless the defense shapes up and starts playing better this team will be golfing before the conference championships. I don't know who is responsible for the defense but here are my recommendations:
The six defensemen that should be playing every night in the playoffs are (assuming Alzner is in Washington):
~ Greg Amadio - he isn't going to do much at the offensive end but he knows EXACTLY where to be at the end he plays in and that is crucial right now.
~ Sean Collins - he has had some bad moments this season but has been one of the steadier players in my opinion.
~ Patrick McNeill - same as Collins. Struggled at times but has been much more consistent than some others.
~ Staffon Kronwall - so far he has shown me nothing but good things. And he can help with the power play too.
~ Sami Lepisto - maybe getting less ice time will help his play cause it hasn't been spectacular this season.
~ Bryan Helmer - still the captain so he needs to be on the list but he has struggled against some of the top players of other teams.
Top Bench Guys:
~ Patrick Wellar - I would feel comfortable with him over Sami and Helmer.
~ Dean Arsene - Much like Amadio he is going to play well in his own end but he has struggled with his play and health again this season.
And Here are the Pairings for these Players:
~ Amadio - Lepisto: This way when Sami jumps up we know there is a good player back.
~ Kronwall - Helmer: Kronwall is a much better skater than Helmer so he will compliment him well
~ Collins - McNeill: They have been solid all season so keep them in and play them together.
You will notice that Sloan is not on this list. I think the team would be much better if he was not on the ice. But since that isn't likely I would HIGHLY recommend playing him alongside either Kronwall or Amadio but NOT Sami or Helmer.
If those things happen than MAYBE this team can improve their defensive zone play. If Woods and French keep the same defensive pairings for the playoffs the offense and goalie's are going to have to carry this team. And I am not sure they can do that.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Some Notes and Observations
I didn't see much of the game last night. Only enough to know that Hamilton wanted that game more than the Bears did. So I am not going to give my opinion on the game or critique the performance. So instead I will give my State of the Bears address.
The other day I made the comment that the secondary scoring just doesn't seem to be there with this Bears team. I might have been wrong on that.
I went back and looked at some different stuff and for the most part that isn't true. But something does seem to be missing from this team at least right now. Maybe this is just a slump which but I don't think this team is as good as it was at the beginning of the season.
And I have some theories on that:
1. Not as high powered an offense as everyone thinks.
If you look at the season as a whole (53 games) the Bears have scored 197 goals (not counting the goals for winning a shootout) for an average of 3.72 per game. Which is good for first in the league. Not bad right?
Well you have to remember that 9 times this season Hershey has scored 6 or more goals in a game. If you eliminate those 9 games and the 67 goals scored in them the Bears only average 2.95 goals per game. That is still pretty good (8th in the league) but when you consider the weak penalty killing and the average goaltending it doesn't look as good.
Like I said I don't think they are in trouble but I think the expectations of this team at the offensive end have been mis-judged.
2. The best team always gets the best effort from the opposition.
This happens in every sport in every league. Teams want to beat the best and the Bears are the perceived best team in the league.
That might explain why night in night out the Bears seem to be running into hot goaltenders and great defenses. It isn't necessarily that the Bears play worse these nights but the other team considers it an achievement to beat the Bears so they bring their A game.
Obviously rivals are going to get up for these games anyways but Portland, Hamilton, and Manchester played some of their best hockey of the season against Hershey. And in my opinion it is because it is easier to get ready for a game against the best than the worst.
3. This is still a streaky team.
Looking at their schedule you can see that they have had 3 different runs of trouble not including the 2 game skid currently.
In the end of October and beginning of November they went 2-4-0-1 in 7 games before winning 11 straight games. After that winning streak they went 2-3 in their next 5 including a shootout win. That preluded a 6-1 run over the New Year where they outscored the opposition 28-17. Surprisingly that was followed by a 3 game losing streak and a 1-3-0-1 over the next five games in the middle of January.
But since then they haven't really bounced back into a winning streak. In the 10 games since then they are 6-2-0-2. That isn't bad but really it is 6-4 which is much worse.
During the regular season these streaks are pretty meaningless but it is bothersome for the playoffs. A team needs to respond to a loss instantly or they find themselves in trouble very quickly.
4. Maybe they are getting tired.
I don't know if this is more the length of the season or getting every teams best effort but Hershey was 24-8-0-1 before the new year. Since then they are 11-6-0-3 or 11-9 depending on how you want to look at it.
If they continue at that pace they would more than likely still make the playoffs but winning the division might be a lofty goal.
Now I did see some positives and good trends looking at the numbers. Not everything looks bleak.
1. The scoring from players is mostly consistent.
Looking at the double digit goal scorers (8 of them) and breaking it down by the New Year most of the players are on the same point production average.
For example Keith Aucoin scored 11 goals in the first 33 games this season and has 6 in 19 since the new year. So he is pretty much exactly the same with 1 goal for every 3 games.
Chris Bourque and Andrew Gordon are still doing good but not as good as the first part. Chris was scoring about 1 in 4 but is now 1 in 5. While Gordo was scoring 1 in 3 but is now 1 in 4.
Kyle Wilson, Graham Mink, and Alexander Giroux are either the same or better than the first part of the season.
The biggest concerns have already been mentioned and that is Oskar Osala and Francois Bouchard. The big O was scoring 1 in 2 and while Bouchards numbers aren't that bad, 1 in 4 before but 1 in 5 now, he hasn't scored since the 16th of January.
But everyone is still scoring which is good BUT there is room for improvement for some of the players.
2. Good when they score.
Obviously all teams are good when they score but what I mean is this: when the Bears score more than 3 goals they are 23-2. That is pretty good but unfortunately the team doesn't average 4 goals per game.
Unfortunately it isn't all good news on the scoring front. When Hershey scores under 4 goals they are only 12-16. That also doesn't bode well for the playoffs though. Low scoring games are common place in the postseason and the Bears aren't strong in those games.
3. Solid but not great since Varly went down.
I am a believer in that Simeon Varlamov is the best goaltender on this team and he gives Hershey the best chance to win.
I was honestly surprised that since his last game (Jan 14) the team has actually been pretty good. Since his injury Hershey is 7-2-0-3. Obviously the problem with that is the 3 shootout losses but the nice thing about that is there are no shootouts in the playoffs. But 2 of those wins also came in shootouts meaning that Hershey has been having trouble closing out games of late. Which doesn't fall on the goalie.
I still think Varly is the goalie that gives Hershey the best chance to win in the playoffs. Now the problem with that is he is also the most NHL ready of the 3 netminders. That wouldn't be a bad thing if both goalies in Washington were healthy BUT they aren't. Brent Johnson had surgery yesterday to fix his hip and will be out for at least most of the regular season.
I expect Varly to be headed up to Washington in a few weeks UNLESS Michal Neuvirth performs very well up there.
Which means that Daren Machesney and Neuvirth will probably carry the team through the rest of the season and maybe the playoffs. And that isn't necessarily the best news in the world.
So basically there are concerns heading into the final third of the season that have to be worked out. The scoring isn't necessarily a huge problem but if the goaltending or the defense isn't up to par than the scoring better be great. I would be perfectly to see every Bears game end 4-3 with Hershey on top but that isn't likely since they only average 3 goals per game.
I think the biggest issue is the streaky-ness of this team. This weekend is going to go a long way to proving this teams heart to me. After losing 2 in a row at home they need to win at least 2 of 3 this weekend.
All teams lose and I wouldn't expect them to win all 80 games BUT I also think that when you lose you should want to win the next game. And while I am not saying that they don't WANT to win it doesn't seem like they are always as focused as they need to be.
Obviously that might change come playoff time when the stakes are higher BUT if they would show it now I think they would boost the confidence of many of the fans and of themselves.
Now at the same time the streaky-ness could be a good thing. If they can go back on an 11 game winning streak they would be only 1 game away from the Calder Cup Finals. Which I still believe they will win!!
LET'S GO BEARS!!!
The other day I made the comment that the secondary scoring just doesn't seem to be there with this Bears team. I might have been wrong on that.
I went back and looked at some different stuff and for the most part that isn't true. But something does seem to be missing from this team at least right now. Maybe this is just a slump which but I don't think this team is as good as it was at the beginning of the season.
And I have some theories on that:
1. Not as high powered an offense as everyone thinks.
If you look at the season as a whole (53 games) the Bears have scored 197 goals (not counting the goals for winning a shootout) for an average of 3.72 per game. Which is good for first in the league. Not bad right?
Well you have to remember that 9 times this season Hershey has scored 6 or more goals in a game. If you eliminate those 9 games and the 67 goals scored in them the Bears only average 2.95 goals per game. That is still pretty good (8th in the league) but when you consider the weak penalty killing and the average goaltending it doesn't look as good.
Like I said I don't think they are in trouble but I think the expectations of this team at the offensive end have been mis-judged.
2. The best team always gets the best effort from the opposition.
This happens in every sport in every league. Teams want to beat the best and the Bears are the perceived best team in the league.
That might explain why night in night out the Bears seem to be running into hot goaltenders and great defenses. It isn't necessarily that the Bears play worse these nights but the other team considers it an achievement to beat the Bears so they bring their A game.
Obviously rivals are going to get up for these games anyways but Portland, Hamilton, and Manchester played some of their best hockey of the season against Hershey. And in my opinion it is because it is easier to get ready for a game against the best than the worst.
3. This is still a streaky team.
Looking at their schedule you can see that they have had 3 different runs of trouble not including the 2 game skid currently.
In the end of October and beginning of November they went 2-4-0-1 in 7 games before winning 11 straight games. After that winning streak they went 2-3 in their next 5 including a shootout win. That preluded a 6-1 run over the New Year where they outscored the opposition 28-17. Surprisingly that was followed by a 3 game losing streak and a 1-3-0-1 over the next five games in the middle of January.
But since then they haven't really bounced back into a winning streak. In the 10 games since then they are 6-2-0-2. That isn't bad but really it is 6-4 which is much worse.
During the regular season these streaks are pretty meaningless but it is bothersome for the playoffs. A team needs to respond to a loss instantly or they find themselves in trouble very quickly.
4. Maybe they are getting tired.
I don't know if this is more the length of the season or getting every teams best effort but Hershey was 24-8-0-1 before the new year. Since then they are 11-6-0-3 or 11-9 depending on how you want to look at it.
If they continue at that pace they would more than likely still make the playoffs but winning the division might be a lofty goal.
Now I did see some positives and good trends looking at the numbers. Not everything looks bleak.
1. The scoring from players is mostly consistent.
Looking at the double digit goal scorers (8 of them) and breaking it down by the New Year most of the players are on the same point production average.
For example Keith Aucoin scored 11 goals in the first 33 games this season and has 6 in 19 since the new year. So he is pretty much exactly the same with 1 goal for every 3 games.
Chris Bourque and Andrew Gordon are still doing good but not as good as the first part. Chris was scoring about 1 in 4 but is now 1 in 5. While Gordo was scoring 1 in 3 but is now 1 in 4.
Kyle Wilson, Graham Mink, and Alexander Giroux are either the same or better than the first part of the season.
The biggest concerns have already been mentioned and that is Oskar Osala and Francois Bouchard. The big O was scoring 1 in 2 and while Bouchards numbers aren't that bad, 1 in 4 before but 1 in 5 now, he hasn't scored since the 16th of January.
But everyone is still scoring which is good BUT there is room for improvement for some of the players.
2. Good when they score.
Obviously all teams are good when they score but what I mean is this: when the Bears score more than 3 goals they are 23-2. That is pretty good but unfortunately the team doesn't average 4 goals per game.
Unfortunately it isn't all good news on the scoring front. When Hershey scores under 4 goals they are only 12-16. That also doesn't bode well for the playoffs though. Low scoring games are common place in the postseason and the Bears aren't strong in those games.
3. Solid but not great since Varly went down.
I am a believer in that Simeon Varlamov is the best goaltender on this team and he gives Hershey the best chance to win.
I was honestly surprised that since his last game (Jan 14) the team has actually been pretty good. Since his injury Hershey is 7-2-0-3. Obviously the problem with that is the 3 shootout losses but the nice thing about that is there are no shootouts in the playoffs. But 2 of those wins also came in shootouts meaning that Hershey has been having trouble closing out games of late. Which doesn't fall on the goalie.
I still think Varly is the goalie that gives Hershey the best chance to win in the playoffs. Now the problem with that is he is also the most NHL ready of the 3 netminders. That wouldn't be a bad thing if both goalies in Washington were healthy BUT they aren't. Brent Johnson had surgery yesterday to fix his hip and will be out for at least most of the regular season.
I expect Varly to be headed up to Washington in a few weeks UNLESS Michal Neuvirth performs very well up there.
Which means that Daren Machesney and Neuvirth will probably carry the team through the rest of the season and maybe the playoffs. And that isn't necessarily the best news in the world.
So basically there are concerns heading into the final third of the season that have to be worked out. The scoring isn't necessarily a huge problem but if the goaltending or the defense isn't up to par than the scoring better be great. I would be perfectly to see every Bears game end 4-3 with Hershey on top but that isn't likely since they only average 3 goals per game.
I think the biggest issue is the streaky-ness of this team. This weekend is going to go a long way to proving this teams heart to me. After losing 2 in a row at home they need to win at least 2 of 3 this weekend.
All teams lose and I wouldn't expect them to win all 80 games BUT I also think that when you lose you should want to win the next game. And while I am not saying that they don't WANT to win it doesn't seem like they are always as focused as they need to be.
Obviously that might change come playoff time when the stakes are higher BUT if they would show it now I think they would boost the confidence of many of the fans and of themselves.
Now at the same time the streaky-ness could be a good thing. If they can go back on an 11 game winning streak they would be only 1 game away from the Calder Cup Finals. Which I still believe they will win!!
LET'S GO BEARS!!!
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