What Ails our Bears?

The Hershey Bears currently sit in 5th place in the East Division with 7 points.  They are 5 points back of 4th place Binghamton and 10 points back from 1st place Wilkes-Barre.

The Bears currently reside in 12 place in the Eastern Conference, just 2 points from last.

The Bears have won 2 games.  That is more than only the Utica Comets, who haven't won a game.

The Bears have been outscored 12-2 in the 3rd period of games this year.  That is easily the worst in the league.  (They are actually outscoring the opposition 10-7 in the first and 11-7 in the second.)

The Bears rank 22nd in goals scored per game with 2.56.

The Bears are 23rd in goals allowed per game with 3.22.


I might not know a ton, but I know that this is about as bad a start to the season as you can have.  Especially considering the expectations that this team brought with them into the season.

So what gives?  Why is this team "under-performing"?

Well, for one, I figured they would be a slow starting team already.  Lots of new faces and a new coach usually spells a slow start for teams.  The 2006 Calder Cup winning Bears lost 5 of their first 9 games.

So some of this is to be expected.

But even that team won 4 in their first 9.

Now maybe if the referees this past weekend wouldn't have (potentially) blown 2 calls the outcomes would have been different.  If you haven't been paying attention there was a goal waved off in the Wilkes-Barre game on Saturday that sure looked in to everyone but referee Ryan Fraser.  And on Sunday another goal was waved off due to a phantom hand pass.

The thing will sports (and life) is that you can't know what would have happened if those calls go the other way, but we would all love to believe things would have worked out.

Hershey would have tied the game Saturday 3-3 and likely gone to overtime against the Pens.  And Sunday the Bears (theoretically) would have been up 4-2 after one period instead of 3-2.  And (theoretically) it would have ended 4-3.

Obviously that is a short-sighted look at it, but it's my blog and I chose to do that.

If the Bears manage to win those 2 games then they would have 4 wins and 5 losses after 9 games...the same as the 05-06 Bears.

But just because there is a new coach and players doesn't explain it all either.  Yes it will take time, but at some point things have to start going better.

Why hasn't that happened?

My personal belief?  Too many mouths to feed and a lack of consistency in the lineup.

Hershey has not had the same lineup for any 2 games this year.  9 games...different lineup each game.  And that is just the overall lineup.  My guess is you have seen different lines and defensive pairings in each game as well.

The problem with this is that guys can't learn tendencies and adjust to each other on the fly if they aren't playing with each other on a regular basis.

Look at the Caps.  When healthy they generally run the exact same lineup out each night with maybe a slight adjustment on the 4th line.  They don't change the top lines and pairings unless a guy is struggling or there is an injury.

You could make the argument for practice, but you can't accurately simulate game moments during practice.
Now this isn't to say that the Bears will never get it unless Haviland sticks with a certain lineup.  No, they will figure it out, but the longer he toys with lineups and lines the longer it will take.

Some of this is out of Haviland's hands.  When the Caps send Dmitry Orlov down on a Sunday with the express purpose of him dressing and playing, he has to do it.

But the more you can go with a constant lineup the better the Bears will get.

Part of this problem goes beyond Haviland and onto Yingst for signing too many veterans for the 3rd straight year.  I understand wanting to have veteran leadership in the locker room, but to have 6 guys for 5 spots seems like you are just asking for trouble.

Sure, it often times 'works itself out' with injuries, but it is more often an issue.  Right now you have 6 veterans and Strachan is the only defenseman.  He sat out one game.

Derek Whitmore, Jeff Taffe, and Dane Byers are veterans and they have played every game so far.  Rightfully so as they are probably 3 of the best players so far.

But that means that between Jamie Johnson and Brandon Segal, one guy has to sit every night.  Both of those guys can play, but they play different roles.  Segal is a physical guy that can play on the bottom two lines, while Johnson is an offensive-minded player with more skill situated best on the top 2 lines.

So when Johnson is in the top 2 lines see a change and then when he sits someone else moves up.  Segal moving in and out of the lineup is less disruptive as he has mostly played on the 4th line from what I have seen.

Obviously this is all a small sample size look at things and probably an oversimplification of the problem, but until Haviland settles on a lineup, forward lines, and defensive pairings the Bears are going to struggle to string together consistent performances.

What you end up with are periods of solid play followed by stretches of guys looking lost.  This happens because guys don't "know" their teammates yet.

Giroux and Aucoin were so good together because they knew exactly where the other was going when a certain situation presented itself.  But that didn't happen right away, it took them time to get there.

I have faith that these Bears will get there too, but it would behoove Haviland and the Bears to sacrifice guys 'feelings' and roll out the same lineup for a few games.  I suggest something like this:

Whitmore - Taffe - Wellman
Walker - Johnson - Deschamps
Byers - LeBlanc -  Mitchell
Syner - Watkins - Rechlicz

That leaves Segal, Brittain, Mitchell (John), and the largely useless Ryan Stoa watching from the press box most nights.

Defense is a little less important as the roles are more defined and straight forward.  But for the sake of this post I would leave Wellar and Brouillette in suits most games.

And start Grubauer in net 2 out of every 3.  Leggio was phenomenal on Saturday, but I haven't been as impressed in his other games as of yet.

Roll that lineup out for both games this weekend and keep it together for the 3 games next week and lets see where the Bears are then.



Oh By The Way:

The lone two game stretch that saw consistent lineups...the trip to St. John's.  The only change from game 1 to 2 was Orlov for Kundratek.  And how did the Bears do in the 2nd game?  That's right...a 4-0 win.

Why Johnson over Segal as the 5th veteran...in the 5 games where Johnson played over Segal the Bears have collected both of their wins and 6 of their 7 points.

Tyler Ruegsegger was loaned to Reading earlier today and Orlov was re-called by the Caps yesterday.

Bears Kick of 2013-14 Season

The Bears will play host to the Adirondack Phantoms at Giant Center tonight to kick off the 2013-14 season.  This will be the first time the Bears start off the season on home ice since the 2009-10 season. 

A summer filled with lots of exciting moves for the organization has erased the bad memories of early round playoff exits of recent years. 

This years team has loads of potential and seems to be in good position from the forwards through the goaltending. 

Add to that a new coach who will surely be a change from the emotion-less coaches Bears fans have been frustrated by the past few years.

But potential is something that every team has at this time a year.  Optimism abounds in every locker room and building around the AHL and NHL.  Each team and it's fan base believes that their team has a chance to be the last one standing.

Can Hershey be that team?  We begin to find out tonight with a group that looks familiar in many ways and completely different in others.

Earlier this week I introduced you to some of the new faces on the roster, but that didn't necessarily do this team justice.  I mentioned that players like Dane Byers, Nate Schmidt, and Michael Latta return for another year at the GC.

But I didn't really mention that those 3 players technically finished the season in Hershey, but combined they only played in 33 games with the Bears at the end of last year.  Not exactly a large sample size.

And that was the story last year as Doug Yingst went out to completely remake the roster he had put together in the summer of 2012.

Looking at the lineup for the first game in Syracuse last year I see 7 names that are on the roster today.  That's it.  Of 20 guys dressed only 7 remain with the team.  They are Cameron Schilling, Stanislav Galiev, Jeff Taffe, Ryan Stoa, Dmitry Orlov, Tomas Kundratek, and Garrett Mitchell.

Some guys might have been scratched for that game that are still there, but you get the picture.  The 2013-14 version of the Hershey Bears is drastically different than the one that started 2012-13.

Midway through last season when Yingst started making moves I was of the belief that the team was much more talented than the one that started the season.  And then in the offseason, allowing players like Boyd Kane and Patrick McNeill to move on to new hockey homes, I feel that the team continued to improve as the players tasked with replacing them appear to be at least equal to them.

Every year at this time I look at the roster and see promise.  You see names that you know or names that you have researched and you find that they are good players. 

For some reason the last few years has never gone quite as according to plan.  The Bears have not seen the 2nd round of the playoffs since winning the Calder Cup in 2009-10.  And they haven't impressed during the regular season either. 

Will this year be more of the same?  I don't think so, but in fairness to the teams that came before, I didn't think so about them either. 

This year's team has a very good balance, including a defense that features multiple NHL prospects.  The offense is still a little on the older side with 5 of Hershey's 6 veterans residing up front.  They appear to be better than last years crop of forwards, but we were all excited about the prospects of guys like Jon Disalvatore last season too. 

There is a lot of hockey to play and plenty of injuries, roster moves, and line adjustments before we can really know what kind of team this is. 

The only thing I will say is this...

The last 3 Bears coaches won Calder Cups in their first year on the job.  (and 4 of the last 6 by the way)

So that is something, right?

Bears Cuts will be Difficult

The Bears have managed to score 12 goals and allow only 1 in their first two preseason games.  Obviously we can get excited about this considering the teams struggles to score the past couple of seasons, but it is still only preseason and the rosters are made up of many guys who won't start in the AHL. 

But it is a good sign.

Looking at the roster this morning I can say one thing for sure...

I am glad I am not in Doug Yingst and Mike Haviland's shoes right now.

Have you looked at the roster?  Only one word I have for it. 

Deep.


Goaltending is solid and we all know that.  Philip Grubauer and David Leggio will be numbers 1 and 2 so long as their (and the Caps goalies) health stays good.

That's the easy part.

Now let's consider the defense.  By my count there are 12 defenseman in camp this morning.  Sorry to say but 3 guys aren't going to be there much longer.  Ryan Kavanaugh, Mike Banwell, and Erik Burgdoerfer will be heading home at some point. Nothing against them, but just consider the remaining 9:

• Julien Brouillette
• Chay Genoway
• David Kolomatis
• Cameron Schilling
• Nate Schmidt
• Patrick Wellar
• Tomas Kundratek
• Patrick Wey
• Brett Flemming

Like I said...those 3 don't have much chance.

Oh and Tyson Strachan was placed on waivers yesterday and could (will likely) be in Hershey after noon today.

So that's 10 guys.  But wait, there's more.

Connor Carrick, Dmitry Orlov, and Michal Cajkovsky all remain in Washington.  It is looking more and more likely that Carrick is going to make the Caps, which is a story all its own, but that still leaves Orlov and Cajkovsky to be sent to Hershey.

So let's assume Carrick does make the Caps.  Which of the remaining 12 would you cut and send to Reading? 

Brett Flemming is probably tops.  But which of the remaining 11?  Seriously.  We haven't seen Cajkovsky or Wey yet as they are rookies, but Michal is still in Caps camp so that says something.  Wey is a highly regarded prospect that has won championships on many levels. 

But the Bears aren't going to keep more than 8 guys in Hershey assuming health. 

Crazy deep. 

• Kolomatis scored 28 points in 46 games last year in Manchester. 
• Strachan played 38 games for the Florida Panthers in 2012-13.
• Genoway had 6 points in 12 games for Hershey after being traded here last year.
• Schmidt had 4 in 8 and then played all 5 playoff games after finishing his college career last year.
• Orlov was, not that long ago, considered a top prospect in the organization.

Point is, they can all play and some of them are going to be heart broken in Reading while others will get frustrated with the view from press row a couple times a week. 

This is a deep bunch and a very talented one.  With a new coaching staff there is no way to know who will be safe and who won't.  Allegiances are gone.  Familiarity takes time.  Guys like Wellar and Brouillette are fighting for their roster lives after finding some stability in recent years.

Hard cuts will be coming and the Bears will still be good.

And that was just the defense. 

By my count there are 18 forwards in camp right now and 3 left in Washington.  They are:

• Josh Brittain
• Nicholas Deschamps
• Stanislav Galiev
• Dustin Gazley
• Jamie Johnson
• Peter LeBlanc
• David Marshall
• Garrett Mitchell
• Domenic Monardo
• Tyler Ruegsegger
• Brandon Segal
• Ryan Stoa
• T.J. Syner
• Jeff Taffe
• Nathan Walker
• Matt Watkins
• Casey Wellman
• Derek Whitmore

And the 3 in Washington:

• Dane Byers
• Michael Latta
• Joel Rechlicz

The Caps still have 17 forwards in camp and are expected to cut 3 of them.  Guess which three...yup, these 3.  Rechlicz has probably a 0% chance to make the camp while both Latta and Byers have a slightly higher chance, but not much. 

Ok. So that is 21 names.  12 can dress any given night and Hershey will probably keep about 15 around most of the time. 

So let's drop 6.  Can you do it?

Josh Brittain got hurt on Friday so he is probably one.  Monardo is a rookie that is signed in Reading. 

After that...who do you think goes?  It's not that easy.

Dustin Gazley?  Maybe (probably), but he scored 25 goals and added 60 assists in his last full ECHL season in 2011-12.  That's impressive, even for a guy that stands only 5'9" and weights 154.  I don't see his name on the scoresheet from the past two nights though.

David Marshall is under contract in Reading for this year.  But he is making it really hard as he recorded a Gordie Howe hat trick last night after getting in a fight and scoring (twice) and getting an assist (2 of them).  That's a good night and that follows a year last year which saw him go for 18 goals and 32 assists in 55 games with Reading. 

Maybe Tyler Ruegsegger?  He is a possible option for Reading I guess, but he is really making an impression on Coach Haviland in camp and also showed something this weekend so far getting 2 goals and an assist in the 2 games.  Plus he was teammates with former Bear Quintin Laing in Abbostford and says that Quintin taught him all about everything.  If he listens to what Laing taught him...I think he would do just fine in Hershey.

I sure as heck can't figure it out. 

As I said at the beginning, I wouldn't want the job Yingst and Haviland have right now.  They have to figure out which of the 30 some guys left in camp make the best opening night roster. 

It's a deep roster.  Is it championship caliber?  I will look into that and discuss that later this week. 

Hockey Back in Hershey

Well if you are a regular reader of this blog then you were probably starting to wonder if I was ever coming back to write again.  My last post went up on the 15th of July.

Sorry about that.

I would like to take this chance to makes sure that anyone reading the blog should also like the blog page on Facebook so you can continue to get updates.  The blog might only see sporadic updates, but there are things posted or shared on the Facebook page on an almost daily basis.

But now that we are (almost) back to hockey in Hershey I figured I would make my triumphant return to the blogging world.


Camp Has Begun

Monday was technically the first day of preseason camp in Hershey.  Many of the guys had started in Washington's camp so they have been skating with each other for a bit, but some guys were waiting for the Bears to start.

Yesterday was the first on ice practice of the season and it seems like things are starting off fast.

“It was a good skate, a really fast pace out there,” winger Brandon Segal said. “It's nice coming in and getting a skate in like that. Obviously, it just bodes well for the weeks ahead.”

This is coach Mike Haviland's first Bears camp so many of the players will be adjusting to how he does things in the coming weeks.  In addition to getting used to the system, which will be similar to the one run in Washington, the players have to 'show off' for their new coaches.

“I'm a new coach,” Haviland said. “I haven't had many of these guys. I'm watching them every time they step on that ice and off the ice, how they conduct themselves. They're being evaluated."

Haviland also said that he is always very honest with players so they will know where they stand.  That will hopefully help what is going to be a very crowded Bears lineup over the next week.

The Capitals still have 33 players in camp and need to get down to 23 next Monday.  With another preseason game tonight I would expect another couple of cuts tomorrow.

The roster in Hershey is going to be deep and talented...on paper.

But we all know that 'on paper' means less than nothing.  Entering the season each of the past 3 years I think many people thought the Bears looked good 'on paper' only to see their season end early each year.

Will this year be different?  I sure as heck hope so.  And, as always, I fully expect it to.

But I do think that the season will start off slowly.  It isn't that Hershey's schedule is daunting, only 4 games in the first 3 weekends of the season, but when you have a new coach it can take some time.

The slow start will help get the system in place, but it won't let Haviland really experiment with the roster that much either.  Which means the roster tweaking may continue into November before a core set of guys and lines are formed.

Either way it promises to be an exciting season.


Tomas Kundratek

The Capitals have placed Kundratek on waivers with the intention of him reporting to Hershey when he clears.  Tomas played much of last season in Washington and was expected to get a shot there again to start the season, but the strong play of Connor Carrick (more below on him) has made him somewhat expendable.

An advantage to putting a guy through waivers now instead of on the 30th is that teams aren't looking to add guys at this point.  They have their own roster decisions to make and don't want to add another one.


Connor Carrick and Tom Wilson

I got a question on the Facebook page about why Tom Wilson is not eligible to play in Hershey this season.  This is because he was drafted out of the CHL (Canadian Juniors) and there is an agreement in place between the leagues that any player drafted out of there that isn't 20 by December 31 of that season or that hasn't played in at 4 seasons in the CHL is not eligible to play in the AHL.

This was put into place to keep the competitiveness up in the CHL.  If they allowed younger players to play in the AHL then surely NHL clubs would send all of their prospects straight to the minors so they could have more 'control' of their development.Wilson doesn't turn 20 until March and has only played in 3 CHL seasons, making him ineligible for Hershey.

However, it would appear as though he is nearing a spot on the Capitals in which case we may never see him in Hershey.  The Caps needed to clear cap space in order to keep him in Washington and the demotion of Kundratek signals that move being made.  The Caps would now be able to keep Wilson and stay under the salary cap for 2013-14.

Connor Carrick is included in this discussion because he is also 19 and actually 2 weeks younger than Wilson.  Except Connor was NOT drafted out of the CHL and is therefore eligible to play in Hershey this season.  He has been impressing everyone in Caps camp and is right now considered to be possibly in their plans to start the season.  Should he not make the Caps it seems likely he would spend the season in the AHL.


Nathan Walker

Here is Tim Leone's piece on the skating Aussie.  Nathan Walker is trying to become the first Australian to ever play in the NHL.  He was signed to a Hershey contract and is expected to play here this season.

Walker is in a unique spot though as he is still draft eligible.  That means that despite him playing in Hershey this upcoming season, he will be entered into the NHL draft next summer and could be drafted by any of the 30 teams.   It will be interesting to see how he fits into the plans in Hershey and/or Reading for this season and what that does to his draft stock.  This doesn't seem like a common situation.


Camp Roster (from PennLive)

GOALTENDERS (4): Brandon Anderson, Riley Gill, David Leggio, Matt Tendler.

DEFENSEMEN (12): Mike Banwell, Julien Brouillette, Erik Burgdoerfer, Brett Flemming, Chay Genoway, Ryan Kavanagh, David Kolomatis, Bryant Molle, Cameron Schilling, Nate Schmidt, Patrick Wellar, Patrick Wey.

FORWARDS (19): Josh Brittain, Nicolas Deschamps, Stanislav Galiev, Dustin Gazley, Jamie Johnson, Peter LeBlanc, David Marshall, Garrett Mitchell, Domenic Monardo, Louke Oakley, Tyler Ruegsegger, Brandon Segal, Ryan Stoa, T.J. Syner, Jeff Taffe, Nathan Walker, Matt Watkins, Casey Wellman, Derek Whitmore.



That is it for my first post in 2 months.  The Bears play 3 preseason games this weekend before opening the season at home on October 5.

Roster Taking Shape

Free agency began earlier in July and while the Washington Capitals have done nothing except wave goodbye to past players and sign a restricted free agent, the Bears have made some additions.

New Bears include goalie David Leggio, defensemen Tyson Strachan and David Kolomatis, and forwards Derek Whitmore and Matt Watkins.

You can see the current roster on the 2013-14 Potential Roster page.

Those signings leave the Bears with 3 goalies under contract and another Sergey Kostenko is expected to be signed in the coming weeks.  

David Leggio was one of the best goalies in the AHL last season so his teaming up with Grubauer gives the Bears coaching staff significant confidence in their starting tandem.  Nothing against Dany Sabourin, but his play last year wasn't as strong as he had been in previous years which put a lot of stress on Grubauer late in the season.

On defense there are currently 13 players that could, conceivably, play for the Bears this upcoming season.  Kundratek would have to clear waivers to come though so he may be as good as gone from the Bears plans.  Oleksy finished the season in Washington and Orlov spent plenty of time there the season before.  

The Caps have 6 defensemen under contract right now not including Orlov or Oleksy.  Barring an additional signing I fully expect one or both of them to stick to start the season.  My guess is one stays and the other comes to Hershey as a first call up.  Oates likes to run pairings of lefties/righties so that will surely play a role.  

Forward is where the entire organization is still lacking a little bit.  The Caps have 12 forwards under contract...including youngster Tom Wilson.  If you count Marcus Johanssen, which you should, they have 13.  They may start the season with that many or they may choose to add another for 14.

Hershey has, by my numbers, 12 forwards under contract.  On the roster page I show 13 only because Deschamps is a restricted free agent who WAS tendered a contract so he will almost definitely be back.  I fully expect the Bears to add a few more forwards at some point this summer.  

Just one more note...there are 4 veterans on the Hershey roster right now.  5 can dress in any given game (6 if one is under 320 games played).  That means you will likely see another veteran signed before the season starts.  The last 2 years the Bears entered the season with 6 and had to sit someone each game.  It didn't work in either situation so hopefully they don't try it again.

It's a good roster.  The goalies are as good a pairing as will find in the AHL.  The defense is talented, deep and bigger than last year with the addition of Kolomatis and Strachan.  Wey and Cajkovsky are also big guys, but they are younger.  

Forward is looking solid to me.  I am a big Latta believer and think Wellman is a premier forward.  If Stoa can find his past scoring touch and Galiev is given a role he can thrive in (think top 2 lines) then this team could be an offensive force to be reckoned with.  Add in the toughness of Rechlicz and Byers and you have a team not many are going to want to play.

It's shaping up to be an exciting season in Hershey, but we all know that teams don't win on paper.  Can't wait until the season starts!!

Bears add more toughness

The Caps didn't trade Ribeiro to replenish the organizational depth yesterday.  No, they went the opposite way and traded one of their best prospects, Filip Forsberg, for an old winger in Martin Erat.  I am not a fan of the move...BUT it brings a new player to Hershey so at the end of the day it works out.

Michael Latta is a 6 foot, 213lb center who will be a prime candidate for an energy/checking line.  Latta comes from the Milwaukee Admirals were he had 9 goals and 26 assists in 67 games this season.  Last year, his first full pro season, he had 14 goals and 13 assists in 51 games.

Oh and he has 184 penalty minutes this year.

That now ranks 1st on the Bears.

So far this season the Bears have earned 965 penalty minutes.  Second fewest in the Eastern Conference.

That should change now.

With the addition of Latta, Dane Byers, and Joel Rechlicz the Bears added 478 penalty minutes.  That's a lot.

Geez, what do you think Yingst and company thought was the weakness on this team??? 

Latta could be the most interesting of the three.  We all know what Wrecker brings to the table and he will be an incredible addition to the general atmosphere surrounding the team.  Byers is a big body that has seen some pretty good success in the AHL over the years and is looking to turn things around in Hershey this year.  I don't remember seeing him play, but I am envisioning a Graham Mink like player.  This year he has struggled with only 6 goals and 4 assists in 58 games, but just last year he scored 16 goals and added 23 assists in 61 games. 

Guys who come to Hershey generally experience better offensive numbers.  It was always this way in the past under Boudreau and Woods and it is continuing under French.  Proof?  Look at the forwards who have come this year:

Casey Wellman -

• Before Hershey - 37 gp | 7 goals - 16 assists
• Since Hershey - 24 gp | 8 goals - 15 assists

Peter LeBlanc -

• Before Hershey - 34 gp | 4 goals - 8 assists
• Since Hershey - 24 gp | 5 goals - 9 assists

Nicolas Deschamps -

• Before Hershey - 50 gp | 7 goals - 9 assists
• Since Hershey - 7 gp | 3 goals - 1 assist

All of those players improved their points per game numbers with Hershey.  Hopefully Byers (and Latta) can continue this trend.

Latta is thought to have NHL potential.  Not as a top 6 forward, but as a Boyd Gordon like player I think.  Or a Jay Beagle if you would rather a current Caps comparison. 

Here is HockeysFuture.com's thoughts:

Latta may not have ideal size for an NHLer, but he has shown that he has ample heart. He's displayed a willingness bordering on zeal for competing in the corners and in front of the net. Latta's an effective playmaking center who improves his linemates both through skill and by setting an example on how to pay attention to the intangibles that separate winning teams from the mediocre ones.
 

I envision him as a Beagle or Steve Pinnizzotto type player.  Someone who can probably give you 15-20 goals a season and be an absolute pest on the forecheck.  Willing to stand up for teammates, finish their checks, and just make the opposing player think twice before carrying the puck too long.

It's hard to really gauge a players role without having seen him so take my comments on Byers and Latta lightly until we see them play this weekend.  But based on what I am reading and seeing with their measurables, I think I am probably pretty close.


A commenter a couple of days ago said that this might just be an average Bears team and that we shouldn't expect too much.  I disagree with that.  Yes, maybe the team that started the season was average, but it seems to me that with the trades the organization has made the Bears are in much better position heading towards the playoffs. 

Will it payoff?  We will see.  But it will be fun to watch and follow along over the next 3 weekends.

New Bears, Old Bears...and my opinion on the Caps and Ribeiro

Tomas Kundratek and Dmitry Orlov were re-assigned to Hershey yesterday.  I am guessing that means Kundratek is healthy and ready to play, but he has missed games in Washington recently due to injury and I am not certain on his status.

It helps the Bears immensely as they shipped defenseman Garret Stafford to Oklahoma City for left wing Dane Byers earlier last night.

At first glance (if you don't or didn't know who Dane Byers is) was that maybe this was a move to get under the veteran limit and not have the difficult decision of which veteran to sit each night.  But it isn't.  Byers is also an AHL veteran and has served as team captain multiple times in his career.

No, this was strictly a move to improve the Bears toughness and grit. 

“It's clearly a thing of trying to add a quality that we think we need to win.”
 

That was Mark French's comment on the Stafford trade.  The team obviously feels like they aren't playing physically enough and in order to get tougher they traded a solid defenseman.

Further proof that I wasn't entirely off base on Monday with my post...

The Bears/Caps traded Matt Clackson to Phoenix for Joel Rechlicz.  Obviously I don't have to tell you much about Joel, but he isn't here to help in the goal scoring department.

In Clackson's defense...the team didn't really give him the chance to truly succeed in Hershey.  He dressed in only 19 games so far this year, including just 2 of the last 22.  It's kind of hard to really get and stay in game shape, both physically and mentally, when you are playing so infrequently.

In the Bear's defense...even when he dressed he didn't seem to fill the role they were looking for.  He just didn't seem to have the 'edge' to his game that everyone expected.  I really expected more of a physical player that was willing to drop the gloves whenever given the chance.  But I don't think that was the case this season. 

Overall, I like the moves.  The Bears needed to get more physical and adding these guys will do that.  BUT, I don't see Byers getting into a ton of games unless he starts scoring.  Who do you sit instead...Kane? Taffe, DiSalvatore, Crabb, Potulny? 

I am sure Byers will get his chances early on.  This is a guy that has scored 20+ goals in multiple AHL seasons so the potential is there. 

As for Joel...he brings an energy to the team and game when he is playing.  He will get his chances, but he will also be little more than a cheerleader come the 3rd period of games.  Same as last year.  He is a good guy, a great teammate (based on things I read), and obviously a energizing presence, but his skill set is limited.  I welcome him back to the roster and hope that he can breathe some life into this roster.


NHL Trade Deadline:

The big debate, which probably isn't much of one anymore considering their recent success, in Washington the past week has been...do you trade Mike Ribeiro.  Since my opinion is never requested, I just figured I would offer it.

Personally I agree with this view from RMNB.

I think the Caps should be sellers at today's NHL trade deadline.

Why?  Because your goal at the beginning of each season is not to just make the playoffs.  Your goal, every season, should be to win a championship. 

The Capitals, as they are built right now, don't seem capable of doing that.  There is obviously something to be said for just getting a chance and possibly getting hot and making a run, but considering the teams at the top of the conference, it seems unlikely that the Caps will be able to win 16 games after the regular season ends.

Ribeiro is 33.  He is having a career year point-per-game wise (only 1 other time in his career did he average a point-per-game like he is this year) and his other measurables (faceoff wins and puck possession time) are lacking. 

He has made it clear that he wants a 5 year deal.  Surely at about $6 million a year.  That means you would be paying a 38 year old center $6 million in a few years.

Simply put...that would be a mistake.

And if they don't trade him and don't resign him, then they are getting nothing for him. 

I understand that the organization has been looking for a 2nd line center for a while, I get that.  But do you really think there is only one guy that can fill that role?  Evgeni Kuznetsov is expected in Washington sometime next season and is expected to play center.  I am willing to bet that he can win as many faceoffs as Ribeiro and while he will likely take a year or 2 to adjust to the NHL game, he will surely be better (or at least as good as) Ribeiro shortly.

Ribeiro has huge value right now.  Sometimes you have to plan for the future and make a move that sets you up better for the future for a negative now.

I won't pretend to know what some team will pay for Ribeiro, but seems like a high pick and a couple of prospects would be a good starting point.  There has to be a team out there willing to give up a lot for a player playing to Ribeiro's caliber right now.

Trade Ribeiro, replenish your farm system (weak right now, let's be honest) with picks and prospects and address the 2nd line center role through free agency this summer.  Surely they can find a stop-gap player to fill the role for a season until Kuzentsov is ready to go. 

Hell, I think you trade Mike Green too.  And Jeff Schultz...if you can get anyone to take him.  And maybe even Neuvirth. 

Time to fix the problem you created by selling prospects and picks for fringe players at past deadlines and look towards the next few seasons, instead of a possible playoff berth this spring.

I fully expect the Caps to stand pat at the deadline and try and make the playoffs.  If they go that route...I hope they make the playoffs and I hope they make a run to the Cup finals.  But that won't change my opinion.

 

The Pieces are Coming Together

Since January 8 the Bears have played 14 games.  8 of those games have needed more than 60 minutes of hockey to complete. 

They are 7-3-4 in that span as well.  That means they have gotten at least a point in 11 of their last 14 games. 

That's actually pretty good.  And it helps to explain how they have slowly crept up to 7th in the conference, only 1 point behind Wilkes-Barre/Scranton for 6th.

Despite the loss, Sunday's game might have been the most impressive based on what I have seen this season.  The Bears didn't seem to show up for the first 40 minutes and found themselves trailing 3-0 entering the 3rd period. 

Surprisingly, I don't think too many people had left the Giant Center at that point.  One more goal for Norfolk and I might have left though.  But I honestly felt like they could still do it. 

Why I felt that way, I have no idea.  This is a team that, prior to Sunday, had failed to force overtime when they were trailing (by any margin) at the end of either the 1st or 2nd period.  0-9-0-0 when trailing after 1 and 0-15-0-0 after 2...entering Sunday.

Actually, after the first period the Bears were down 1-0 and I jokingly said to the wife that we ought to leave now since the outcome was already determined.  Glad we didn't have anything better to do.

All it took was the first goal from Barry Almeida less then 2 minutes into the 3rd period.  From that moment on it not only felt that a comeback was possible, it felt likely.  The team just needed that one good thing to happen and it snowballed from there. 

Eventually it became the Casey Wellman and Ryan Potulny show as they teamed up for the Bears 2nd goal midway through the period and the tying goal with less then a minute to go in regulation. 

In the 3rd period and overtime, the Bears outshot the Admirals by a total of 14 to 5 and controlled the game.  Unfortunately, the shootout didn't go as well as the Bears lost, but the comeback was huge for a team that hadn't managed to do that all season. 

There are still lots of questions going forward, but the recent stretch of points and the comeback on Sunday definitely makes me believe that Hershey will be playing hockey into May.


Wellman and LeBlanc

The Bears have played 5 games with their new pieces and have gone 3-0-1-1 in those games.  They have even outshot their opponent in 3 of those games. 

Obviously Wellman and Peter LeBlanc are not solely responsible for the good stretch, but their presence can't be completely ignored either. 

Neither player has scored yet (although LeBlanc did net the Bears only shootout goal on Sunday) but each has helped their linemates score.  Wellman has 4 assists since joining the Bears while LeBlanc has 2.  Considering that they are still learning their linemates tendencies I would say that it is a pretty good start for 2 players that are going to be leaned on by their new team for the rest of the season.

I wasn't convinced that the Hamill for Wellman trade was a good move, but after watching 2 games the past 2 weekends, I can safely say that it was an upgrade.  Wellman brings a little more speed and energy to the lineup then Hamill did I believe.

As for LeBlanc...he has talent and given the opportunity he should be able to produce regularly for the Bears.  Definitely an offensive improvement from Beaudoin.

At this point...2 good trades.


Danick Paquette

That was short-lived but it was fun.  The biggest weakness this Bears team has, in my opinion, is it's lack of physicality.  You have big forwards, Jeff Taffe and Ryan Potulny in particular, that seem like they are allergic to hitting someone.  They peel off of guys all the time instead of making a good hit. 

The Bears were missing their Joel Rechlicz or Steve Pinnizzotto.  The player that will make big hits and bring energy to the team and the arena. 

Well, the player wearing Pinner's #13 was providing that role for a couple of games.  Danick Paquette has spent the last few years jumping around the ECHL, playing for 5 different teams the last 3 seasons including a stint in Reading this year. 

And he has been racking up penalty minutes at those stops as well.  In 126 ECHL games over the past 3 years, he has recorded 450 penalty minutes. 

Somewhat surprisingly, he has also been relatively effective offensively as well.  In those 126 games he also has 27 goals and 25 assists.  Nothing flashy, but he can add a few goals as well.

On Sunday, when I saw him, and Saturday, based on what I read, he was filling the energy position the Bears have sorely missed this year.  He is out there to hit people, that is obviously the part of the game that he is best at and desires for. 

Unfortunately, after missing the start of the season with a broken arm suffered in the preseason he is again going to miss some time.  Specifics aren't known as of yet, but he injured his left hand on a missed hit along the end boards.  It was immediately evident that he had injured something as he left the ice quickly and headed straight down the tunnel.  As of this write-up there are no specifics but he is being listed as week-to-week...which doesn't bode well for a speedy return.

Here's hoping that when he is healthy he is reinserted into the lineup as he brings an element to the game that this Bears team isn't getting elsewhere.


Matt Clackson

Tim Leone has an article up on PennLive.com discussing Clackson and his lack of playing time this year.  Apparently, he played in 9 of the Bears first 16 games when Adam Oates was still taking up space behind the Bears bench.  But since then, he has only gotten into 8 games...out of 32.

Coach French puts it like this...

“I think the dynamics of our team and our lines have changed a lot this year,” Bears head coach Mark French said. “We haven't come to a group that we've really liked for a long period of time, so there's been a lot of interchanging with our lines. I think it's just been a byproduct of that more than anything else.”

“At times in the past with some of our teams, we could have a fourth line that was clearly energy or defensive,” said French, who lauded Clackson for his professionalism. “There's been times this season when we've struggled to score where we thought we need to put a fourth line together that could conceivably contribute a little bit more offense.”

Personally, I think his absence from the lineup could explain some of Hershey's struggles.  When you are trying to roll with 4 scoring lines you are eliminating a big part of hockey...the physical part. 

To be fair, I don't think Clackson falls into the same category as a Rechlicz, Pinner, or even a Paquette.  He doesn't seem to have an intent purpose of hitting people every time he is on the ice, but he does bring a presence that few other Bears can bring. 

The Bears feature few players that seem to WANT to hit guys.  Boyd Kane will hit you.  Garrett Mitchell throws his weight around a bit.  Paquette has been discussed.  Steve Oleksy and Patrick Wellar will lay you out given the opportunity. 

But that is about it. 

What French should do is sit Clackson down and tell him, "I am going to put you in the lineup, but you better damn well hit some people out there or you are coming back out."

You need to have a physical presence if you are going to win hockey games.  Make the opposition think twice before carrying the puck.  Make them make mistakes. 

Players like Clackson can do that if they are given adequate ice time.  Time to give him a chance.

Bears Trade Two

Goodbye Mathieu Beaudoin and Zach Hamill.

Hello Peter LeBlanc and Casey Wellman.

Beadoin for LeBlanc:

A simple look at the statistics shows that the Bears may have upgraded here (a bit)...on the offensive end.  Beaudoin had 3 goals and 7 assists in 32 games so far this season in Hershey.  LeBlanc had 4 goals and 8 assists in 34 games with Rockford.

But last season LeBlanc led the IceHogs in goals with 24...so maybe he just needed minutes.  This season the IceHogs had a bunch of guys that went straight to Chicago after the lockout so maybe that was keeping his top line minutes down.  Who knows.

I don't really mind this too much.  At worst it's trading depth for depth and at best the Bears get a scoring forward that isn't afraid to shoot.

Hamill for Wellman:

Based on Tim Leone's write-up about the trades this appears to be a move to clear some of the veteran presence on the team.  Hamill qualified as a veteran-exempt player, the same as Patrick McNeill, so one veteran always had to sit.  This will alleviate that issue.

If you remember last year the same thing happened when the Bears traded Danny Richmond around this time.  As it turned out, injuries and recalls to Washington ended up making the veteran limit a none-issue.  But maybe it is better to be safe then sorry and make the roster decisions easier.

(Side Note - maybe this summer Doug Yingst won't sign too many veterans and will instead learn from this problem that he has faced 2 straight seasons.)

But let's give it a chance and look at what the Bears gave up and what they get back.

First of all, Wellman isn't a veteran, so that is good.

Hamill was, in my opinion, one of Hershey's better forwards this year.  He had 11 goals and 11 assists in 40 games, which put him 3rd in goals and 4th in points on the roster.

Wellman comes from San Antonio, where he had 7 goals and 16 assists in 37 games.  Last season he scored 23 goals between Houston and Connecticut and was pretty close to a point-per-game player.

Wellman has taken 85 shots this season and has only converted on 8.2%, which is low when comparing to other top 6 forwards.  Unfortunately, I don't believe I have access to those stats from 2011-12 to see what his shooting percentage was there, but my guess is that it was a little higher.

But for now let's just look at the 85 shots.  As the new member of the Bears, he ranks....1st in shots on the season.  The previous leader was...Zach Hamill with 84.

So based on their stats I would say this, like the trade for LeBlanc, is a 6 of one, half dozen of another kind of deal.  At worst you are getting a player that will do what Hamill did and at best you might have found a guy willing to shoot a bit more.


Time will tell if these trades work out.  I think LeBlanc is more of an offensive upgrade over Beaudoin than Wellman is over Hamill, but maybe both players put up good numbers the rest of the way.  Hamill was having a career year so maybe Wellman can jump start his year a bit with the move.  

Quest for a 12th Calder Cup begins Saturday

The Bears wrapped up their 2012-13 preseason slate with a win over the rival Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins Sunday night.  Overall it was a solid exhibition outcome...2-2, with no huge injuries.

This morning brought "final" cuts to get the team down to their opening night roster.  There is still a full season to play and many of the players cut will definitely be back in Chocolate and White at some point soon.

T.J. Syner, Joel Champagne, Brett Flemming, and Alex Berry were all sent to Reading today. 

That leaves 27 players on the roster including Danick Paquette who broke his arm and will be out for a while.

Click over to the roster page for a look at the roster as it stands now.

Alex Berry is probably the biggest surprise (to me anyway) as he scored 2 goals against Wilkes-Barre this weekend and scored 14 goals and 20 assists in the AHL two years ago.  He missed last season with an injury so maybe this is a move to get him used to game action again.  He is expected to play first line minutes in Reading.

Currently there are 15 healthy forwards on the roster and 9 defensemen.  I wouldn't be surprised to see another defensemen sent to Reading before the weekend but I who knows.  Teams always like to have some extra bodies for practice and the first few games as guys are still getting back into shape. 

The Bears open the season this Saturday against the Syracuse Crunch...which are technically the defending AHL champs, kind of.  The Crunch are now the affiliate of the Tampa Bay Lightning, who were previously in Norfolk. 

Imagine for a second being a Norfolk Admiral this year.  Assuming the Admirals do a banner drop at the homeowner, there are going to be a number of guys on the ice who weren't a part of it last year.  In fact, based on look at the current roster...NOT ONE player from the 2011-12 Calder Cup Champion Norfolk Admirals remains in Norfolk.  Awkward.

So Hershey will start the season against the true defending Calder Cup Champions in Syracuse.  Looking at their prospective roster, it appears that a majority of last seasons team is "returning" intact. 

Should be fun. 

Bears Open Camp

Today is officially the first day of the 2012-13 hockey season for the Hershey Bears.  The opening of training camp today marks the beginning of Hershey's 75th AHL season. 

There are some changes that the 75th year will bring.  The new logos are the most immediately noticeable changes.  A new roster is the second biggest change.  The roster is again talented and deep which will help considering some of the NHL caliber talent on AHL rosters due to the NHL lockout.  Hershey has a couple of guys that fit that label, Dmitry Orlov and Braden Holtby, but that is minor compared to some of the teams rosters. 

The final change for the upcoming season could have the most impact but may not be noticed by many people at all.  With a new coaching staff in Washington there are going to be subtle differences in the way the Bears play.  For most of us, this means nothing.  The main thing we care about are goals for, goals against, and wins and losses.  But for the players this could create opportunities for players or take away some.  Guys that fit certain roles in the past couple of seasons may find that those roles are expanded, diminished, or eliminated completely.  While other guys will fill new roles that are created by the system.

Considering the Bears have 3 days of practices before their first exhibition game, the changes are going to be sporadic at first.  In fact, I would imagine that there will still be mental lapses and blown assignments through the first few weeks of the season as players adjust to the slight changes. 

“We talked about it at development camp [in July],” French said. “There will be some changes to the way that we play.  Some things aren't going to change. But there will probably be two or three subtle differences in how we play, but not a change in the overall philosophy of how we want to play.”

Sometimes the subtle differences are the ones that are hardest to implement because things happen so quick on the ice.  It makes it easier for a guy to forget the new way and revert to the old style.

Fortunately, or unfortunately (depending on your feelings on it), the Bears will feature a bunch of guys that weren't in Hershey last year so they are learning a new system anyways.

43 players are scheduled to attend training camp.  Below are the positional lists for anyone that hasn't seen it.  The players that are shown in bold font are guys that I consider to be locked in to a roster spot in Hershey.  Names shown in italics are the guys with a legitimate shot to make the team.  Players in standard font are long shots to make the Bears and will likely be reporting to Reading.

The new ECHL affiliate Royals are scheduled to open camp tomorrow and the Bears coaching staff intends to make their first cuts on Thursday (after the first exhibition game on Wednesday night).  Expect to see a bunch of the long shots in the game Wednesday night.

Now to the roster:

Goalies:

• Brandon Anderson
• Philipp Grubauer
• Braden Holtby
• Sergey Kostenko
• Dany Sabourin

If the lockout were not ongoing, Braden would likely be in Washington and Grubauer would be starting off in Hershey.  I fully expect the NHL to play this season so this is likely a temporary situation but it isn't a bad one for the Bears.  Grubauer WILL see time in Hershey this season and likely won't be cut until the end of camp, but I don't see why the Bears would carry 3 goaltenders on the opening night roster.  Dany's spot is not in any danger in my opinion.  Even if Grubauer outplays Sabs I still think the Bears send the youngster to Reading to keep him in game action.

Anderson and Kostenko are raw and unknown prospects that may or may not pan out for the organization.  The theory for the Capitals in recent years is to take a goalie in every draft as you never know.  So far it has worked out.  It may again with these guys...but barring injuries I doubt either guy sees a minute on Giant Center ice this season.

Defense:

• Julien Brouillette
• Adam Comrie
• Brett Flemming
• Tomas Kundratek
• Kevin Marshall
• Patrick McNeill
• Steven Oleksy
• Dmitry Orlov
• Cameron Schilling
• Garrett Stafford
• Dustin Stevenson
• Brad Walch
• Patrick Wellar
• Scott Wietecha

14 defensemen are in camp.  I expect the Bears to start the season with 8 on the roster.  Kundratek, Marshall, McNeill, Orlov, Schilling, and Stafford are locks to be in Hershey.  That leaves only 2 spots open.  Let's start this discussion with the players unlikely to make the team.

Walch will be in his first professional season and playing time in Reading is most important for him.  Stevenson has been in the ECHL for a couple of seasons and might get a game or two in Hershey as an injury fill in but I don't see him playing in Hershey much.  Wietecha has some offensive game, 14 goals and 13 assists in 55 ECHL games last season, but he has yet to make his AHL debut.    Comrie is under contract with Reading and is probably the unlikeliest to make the Bears.

Now for the fringe guys...

Odds are that the final two spots will be Brouillette's and Wellar's to lose since the coaching staff knows them and understands what they bring to the table.  But, with Orlov staying in Hershey for the time being there is one less spot available so their spots are not locked in.  Of the two I think Wellar's spot is safer. 

Flemming is a good young player, but I don't see them rushing him.  Why keep him in Hershey to start the season and sit in the stands when he can get regular playing time in Reading.  He likely has a brighter future than the other 3 fringe guys, but that future will likely wait until later this year or next.

Oleksy has 67 games of AHL experience and was a plus 16 in 50 games for Bridgeport last season.  In a normal season I would give him excellent odds of starting in Hershey.  In this lockout season...I think he is the first or second call up option.

It's a solid group of players with or without Orlov.  I can't imagine a defensive unit in the league any better then this one.  Schilling is a rising star in the organization.  Kundratek got time in the NHL last season and is highly regarded as well.  This might be McNeill's last chance in the organization but I think Hershey fans feel pretty good about him on the blueline.  Same can be said for Marshall to be honest although he was limited to 31 games last year due to injuries.  Stafford is the veteran presence that should help the young guys continue to progress.  

Forwards:

• Barry Almeida
• Matt Beaudoin
• Alex Berry
• Mike Carman
• Joel Champagne
• David Civitarese
• Matt Clackson
• Jon DiSalvatore
• Stanislav Galiev
• Tyler Gron
• Zach Hamill
• Jon Kalinski
• Boyd Kane
• David Marshall
• Garrett Mitchell
• Danick Paquette
• Matt Pope
• Ryan Potulny
• Mattias Sjogren
• Ryan Stoa
• T.J. Syner
• Jeff Taffe
• Jesse Todd
• David Vallorani

24 forwards in camp with I suspect 15 positions open for the start of the season.  13 are locks in my opinion. 

Let's talk first of the players that likely have little chance to open the season in Hershey.  And these are some names to keep in mind as some good players (Andrew Gordon and Steve Pinizzotto to name a couple recent guys) have come through the ECHL to AHL.

Tyler Gron and Jesse Todd both finished their college careers last year and got a sniff of the AHL.  Gron played 3 games with Bridgeport and picked up an assist while Todd played 5 games in Hamilton and picked up 3 helpers.  Both guys packed some offensive punch in college so keep their names handy going forward.

Vallorani is also a recent college graduate but he didn't get a shot in the AHL last season.  He was at development camp in July and impressed the staff enough to give him a shot.  He is a diminutive player, standing only 5'8" (just like Almeida and Syner actually) so the odds are against him.  He is a solid offensive player though.  Just a question of many players under 5'9" do the Bears want to roster this season.

Champagne is a year removed from a very successful junior career in the QMJHL.  He was a 5th round pick of the Maple Leafs and played 55 games with Milwaukee last year, picking up 6 goals and 6 assists.  Definitely a good player headed to Reading, but he won't make a huge impact in Hershey this season I don't think.

Civitarese played 10 games for the Bears last season after his college season ended and he will likely get another look this year but there are too many bodies in Hershey for him to start the season here.

Marshall is the journeyman of the group, having spent parts of the last 4 seasons playing for 8 different franchises in the ECHL and AHL including the Baby Pens 2 years ago.  Another depth piece like Champagne but unlikely to make an impact in Hershey.

Paquette is a feisty player who doesn't bring much offense at this point in his career.  Too small for a heavy weight (6'0" 210 lbs) and not quite offensive enough for a 3rd line role, he is likely headed to another season in the ECHL.  Could see a sniff of Hershey this year if the cards fall right for him.

Now let's look at the fringe guys. 

Syner and Almeida might as well be discussed together.  The cousins both finished their college careers and signed contracts with the Bears immediately afterwards.  Neither is truly average height for an adult male, but both can skate and make plays.  Personally, I love seeing guys like this on the ice.  They are quick, have incredible vision to make plays, and are tough as anyone.  They have been counted out for years due to their size and have made it this far.  Keith Aucoin and Chris Bourque understand what they are going through.  As do guys like Martin St. Louis.  Are Syner or Almeida in that class....unlikely, but still a little early to tell.  I suspect that at least one of them starts the season in Reading, if not both.  When everyone is healthy the Bears are likely looking for guys that can kill penalties and play 4th line, physical minutes.  Not saying these guys can't do it...but I suspect other guys get the chance first.

Pope is that type of player.  He is never going to log power play minutes and won't see time with the first liners, barring injury, but he will kill penalties and play a physical, high energy game with his linemates.  A veteran player who isn't going to disappoint in his role.

Mitchell.  The Bears depth is good again this year.  That explains his appearance on the fringe list.  But, to his advantage, he is the same as Pope...with a bit more offensive upside I think.  I said last year that Mitchell reminded me a lot of Gordon in the way he skated and is built.  I don't think Mitchell has that kind of offensive upside but I think he could have Jay Beagle kind of upside...15-20 goals and assists, given the necessary minutes.  I think he makes the roster but could see them sending him to Reading for more playing time to see if he can develop further offensively. 


The roster saw a lot of turnover from last season to this one...more than in other years it felt like.  It is likely to take some time for guys to adjust to each other.  And it will take some time for the coaching staff to figure out line combinations and which guys are right for certain situations. 

Overall I think this is a good team with loads of depth.  The Reading Royals are going to be contenders in the ECHL as they will also load up on talent that doesn't immediately make a spot in Hershey. 

The season is only two weeks away.  I will have plenty more over the coming weeks. 

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

Bears Go Shopping

After sitting by on day 1 of free agency the Bears have made a pretty big splash this holiday week.  On Monday the Bears signed 4 players to AHL only contracts and then added another yesterday.  Prior to that the Capitals made a signing that could (likely will) influence Hershey.  Without further delay...

Jeff Taffe

This is probably the most recognizable name to Bears fans.  Taffe played for the Baby Pens in 2007-08 and 2008-09.  In fact, his best career season, in regards to total points, was 08-09 when he recorded 25 goals and 50 assists in 74 games.  His career for goals in a season is 30, recorded two years ago while playing in Rockford.  His linemate in Rockford that season...Ryan Potulny.  Just sayin'.

Last year, while playing in Houston, he recorded 18 goals and 35 assists over 73 games while also picking up 2 assists for the Minnesota Wild in 5 NHL games.

Taffe has played in more than 320 professional games and is will count against the Bears veteran limit.  He is actually signed to an AHL one way contract right now as that came with more money than a two-way deal would have at the AHL level.  He has played in at least 1 NHL game in every season since he finished his college career and expectations are that the Caps will not hesitate to sign him to an NHL deal should they need him.

Jon DiSalvatore

This name is, to me anyways, much less recognized.  He has spent the past three years in Houston, playing alongside Taffe last year, and has been their captain all three years.  He has played 9 AHL seasons and has scored 20 or more goals in all of them.  He has scored 28 in each of the last two seasons.

He is durable as well.  He has missed only 1 game the past three regular seasons and has played in 72 or more games in all but one of his 9 AHL seasons.  And that one season he still played in 66 games.

Like Taffe, he will count against Hershey's veteran limit.

Alex Berry

Last season Berry was a member of the Portland Pirates but suffered a compound arm fracture in training camp and missed the whole season.  Prior to that the 26 year old right wing spent the 2010-11 season with the Norfolk Admirals where he recorded 14 goals and 20 assists.

Steve Oleksy

Oleksy has played in only 67 career AHL games so he is more of a depth signing than anything, especially considering the players already under contract on the blue line, but as we have seen in recent years...you can never have too much depth.  Last season he played 50 games for Bridgeport.  He scored 1 goal and added 14 assists while also finishing a +16 (third on the team).

Mathieu Beaudoin

Mr. Beaudoin broke into the AHL back in 2007-08 and played 7 games for the Bears that season before moving on to additional playing time and opportunity.  In 2010-11 he scored 21 goals and added 30 assists in just 63 games as a member of the San Antonio Rampage and played in the AHL All-Star game in Hershey.

Last season he battled a thumb injury for much of the season and only played in 47 games for Portland, recording 5 goals and 17 assists.  He was also a member of the Texas Stars in the 2010 Calder Cup finals against the Bears.

One of the best qualities that he brings to the team this year is that he is not a veteran.  So he is an offensive skill player that will not count against the teams veteran limit which should open the door to plenty of playing time.  Unlike DiSalvatore though, he appears to be a bit more fragile.  He hasn't played in more than 72 games in any of his professional seasons.

Garrett Stafford

This is the only player of this group that is a Washington Capitals signing.

Stafford played his 2011-12 season split between Hamilton and Portland.  He only played in 48 games between the two teams but recorded 9 goals and 19 assists in those games.

Like Beaudoin, he was a member of the Texas Stars 2010 Calder Cup finals team against Hershey.  In fact, Doug Yingst had this to say about Stafford:

“We collectively [with Washington] designated Garrett as the No. 1 right-handed defenseman available on a two-way contract for the American Hockey League,” Yingst said. “We thought when Texas played against us -- they had him and Andrew Hutchinson as their No. 1 and 2 -- we thought Stafford was better. Our need, obviously, on our depth chart is for right-handed D.”

Stafford will also count against the veteran limit.

Kevin Marshall

Marshall has agreed to terms for the 2012-13 season.  As a restricted free agent this doesn't surprise me too much, but it always good to officially get guys under contract with time to spare.

News around Hershey

So a guy goes on vacation for a week and a few things of note take place.  Obviously a good deal has happened this offseason so far and I haven't exactly been updating with any type of frequency.  Let's take a second and look at some of the stories I haven't mentioned to date.

Cody Eakin traded

The Capitals traded the young center and a 2nd round pick to the Dallas Stars for Mike Ribeiro.  Eakin was likely destined for the Bears roster for at least part of the upcoming season so this can be considered to have a direct impact on the Bears 2012-13 roster. 

For the Caps I love this trade.  They have been missing a true 2nd line center since Sergei Federov left and Ribeiro should fill that role admirably. 

For the Bears I don't hate this trade.  Yes Eakin was a good young talent and always played hard, but he would have been a top recall option for the Caps this season and likely wouldn't have been much of a factor come playoff time assuming the Caps make the playoffs and bring up some extra bodies.  So yes I think Eakin would have been a member of the Bears for much of the season and would have been a top contributor, but at the same time I think this allows the Bears to go out and sign a free agent that has a better chance to last in the AHL this season.

Rule Changes

The AHL is getting video replay for questionable goals.  This is obviously a good thing for the game as there were some questionable goals scored against (and surely for) the Bears this past season.  In theory, the replay will remove the doubt from some of the goals. 

My only concern is how the equipment works on an arena by arena basis.  Unlike the NHL system this will be done by each team and will be all in house.  Therefore, you could come across a situation where the equipment at one arena is inferior to the equipment at another.  Time will tell, but overall I don't see where this is ever a bad thing. 

One other rule change that you will notice immediately is being done at the request of the NHL.  A variation of a no-touch icing rule will be in effect until November 19, 2012.  Basically if the puck is already across the goal line and the defensive player is the first to reach the faceoff dot, the play is whistled at that point. 

The theory behind the no-touch icing is to eliminate the collisions that take place when players are racing for the puck beyond the goal line.  I don't see how this changes anything.  Within the current rules injuries are probably rare when the defenseman reaches the faceoff dots first anyways as the forward likely isn't coming that hard anymore.  The times when injuries surface are when two guys are still neck and neck at that point, which will not be affected by this rule.

Both rules are for the betterment of the game and I don't think either is, in any situation, bad for the game.  But I also don't think they are earth shattering changes.

Jacob Micflikier to Europe

I honestly believed that the Bears/Caps were going to give Micflikier another contract and the diminutive winger would be back in Hershey for at least another year.   Alas, that isn't going to be the case as he has signed to play in Switzerland for the upcoming year.  Based on the linked article from Tim Leone, it sounds as though he was close to resigning with the organization but is hoping a shift to a different league might give teams a different view of him.

At the age of 28, Micflikier is running out of time to impress NHL staffs and get a legitimate shot in the league.  I am not convinced that going to Switzerland is really the best thing for any player.  The game in Europe is much different than the North American game and you rarely hear of players having success with "re-launching" their careers in Europe.  If they do it is surely when they play in either the KHL or Swedish Elite League.

Chris Bourque played in Switzerland for the 2010-11 season before returning to the AHL last season and having an MVP caliber season.  If Bourque gets an NHL opportunity this upcoming season he will have this past season to thank...not his year in Europe.

The AHL is arguably the second best league in the world.  Maybe the financial parts of his deal were more influential than we realize (I have no idea what the terms are), but if he is truly using this as a launching pad then I question the logic.

But hey, what do I know.  Good luck Jacob!

Mike Carman is signed for 2012-13

Carman was a restricted free agent and the Capitals had tendered him an offer so the chances of him leaving were slim to none already.  But yesterday it was made official as he signed a one year contract with the organization.  Based on numbers from Capgeek.com he will make $65,000 in the AHL this season, a $5,000 a year raise from last year. 

Carman played in 32 games for the Bears in 2011-12 after coming over in a trade from the Colorado/Lake Erie organization.  He scored 7 goals and added 5 assists while bouncing around from the 2nd-4th line.  He is a center in the mold of Andrew Joudrey, a solid defensive player with a limited offensive game.  He is a role player with some upside. 

Glad to see him back for 2012-13.

Capitals Developmental Camp

The Capitals announced that their annual summer development camp will take place from July 9-14 in Washington.  A roster for the camp has not yet been announced, but it is generally recent draft choices as well as rookie free agents.  There are typically signings that result from the camp and possibly even a player that could contribute in Hershey this upcoming year.  Time will tell.  I have yet to go to one of these....someday I will make it down.

Free Agency begins tomorrow, July 1

NHL/AHL free agency period is open for business tomorrow.  With an expiring CBA currently being negotiated you might see a little more cautious activity than usual as teams can't be certain of an exact salary cap number for 2012-13 but plenty of activity will surely take place.

On this site we are mainly concerned with how signings impact the Hershey Bears.  And thanks to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins beat writer Jonathan Bombulie we have a comprehensive list of AHL talent that is available.  On June 24 he posted his top 250 list that identifies, in his opinion, the top 250 AHL caliber players available.  

As of this morning the list is somewhat jumbled as players have been eliminated and/or added due to qualifying offers being made.  He will be updating the list tomorrow and, if I remember, I will update this post to include that link. 

He has Keith Aucoin ranked as the #2 player available.  I am honestly somewhat concerned that Keith hasn't resigned with the organization already.  Hopefully it is just a formality, but something tells me he is curious to hear what teams are offering.  If he manages to get a one way offer from an organization I have to imagine he will take it...I would.  Hopefully he comes back, but if he doesn't I hope he finds permanent success in the NHL.

I am excited to see who the Caps/Bears sign as there are lots of spots open on the Hershey roster and a limited number of prospects available to fill them.  The #1 player on the list is LW Jonathan Audy-Marchessault who played for the Connecticut Whale last season, scoring 24 goals and adding 40 assists in his first pro season.  He is a small forward, only 5'9", which explains why he wasn't drafted by an NHL team.  But as the Norfolk Admirals are well aware (and the Bears for that matter), smaller players can pack an offensive punch at this level.  Might the Bears be in on the Audy-Marchessault sweepstakes....who knows.


That's all for now.  For the next month there should be some regular updates as we discuss players that have signed with the Caps/Bears.  The roster will begin taking shape tomorrow.

Player news in late May...unusual

Typically we don't start hearing about what players will make up the next season's roster until July and August so getting news on one player was surprise enough.  But today news on a second player was made. 

First up, Chris Bourque is no longer affiliated with the Washington Capitals organization.  Since he was drafted 33rd overall by the Capitals in 2004 he has spent roughly 90% of his professional career tied to the organization.  If you discount the 20 games he played for Pittsburgh after being claimed on waivers in 2009-10, he has been a part of the Washington organization his entire career.

*Yes I know he played overseas in 2010-11, but he was still a restricted free agent in the Capitals system and was still technically a Washington Capitals prospect.

That all ended late last week.  A little over 30 days before it was ending anyways.

Chris Bourque believes that he has NHL talent.  And why shouldn't he.  I believe his talent level is NHL quality...the issue has always been his size, or lack thereof.  At 5'8" he is generally considered too short to play in the NHL. 

Well, Chris is looking to disprove that notion and told the Capitals as much.  The organization knew that he was very unlikely to resign with them once he hit unrestricted free agency on July 1 of this summer. 

So he was leaving Hershey one way or another.  The Capitals just decided that they wanted to see if they could get something for him. 

One shouldn't expect to get equal value (or any value for that matter) for a player that has played sparingly in the NHL and is set to be an unrestricted free agent in about 30 days.  You are basically offering teams a player that they would have a shot at signing on July 1 if they chose to wait.  Teams won't give up too much for that chance.

Once in a while you will see a high-end NHL caliber player coming up on free agency get traded in the same situation.  Generally though that is for players that teams are certain will start the following season in the NHL.  No offense to Chris, but I doubt he fits into that category for most teams.

Somehow though the Caps managed to flip him for a player of quality.  The Boston Bruins were apparently tired of waiting for prospect Zach Hamill to pan out and decided to take a chance on Washington's diminutive winger. 

Hamill was the #8 overall pick in the 2007 NHL draft.  He has played 256 games in the AHL since then, scoring 44 goals and adding 95 assists.  Obviously his numbers aren't comparable to Bourque's, but not many are.  (In case you were curious...Chris has 132 goals and and 263 assists in 398 regular season AHL games). 

Hamill has also played in 20 NHL games, recording 3 assists for the big Bruins. 

No one is going to try and tell you the Capitals got equal value (based on past production) for Chris Bourque.  But they did manage to turn nothing into something.  Chris wasn't coming back...Zach will be.

Hamill also fills a need for the Bears (he is a long shot to make the Caps).  He is a center.  And if you remember, the Bears had some injuries at center late in the season and struggled to find capable replacements. 

AND, Chris was a veteran, having played in more than 320 professional games in his career.  Hamill is a veteran exempt, having played in between 260-320 games in his professional career.  Therefore, Hamill is easier to work with on a roster as team is allowed to dress one veteran-exempt player each game in addition to the 5 veterans.

*Note that the NHL collective bargaining agreement is set to expire this summer which could influence rules like the one I just discussed, as well as waiver rules.  So the above paragraph may end up not being true...but based on this past season it is.

It is unfortunate to see Chris leave as he is a good player and seemed to come into his own the past year or so.  Both him and the organization left open the possibility of him returning down the line if it doesn't work out in the NHL, but I for one am hoping to see him succeed and stick with the Bruins.

At the same time though, I am excited to see what Hamill can do in Hershey.  Players routinely came to Hershey and saw their skills really brought out of them and they exploded for big seasons.  Hamill might be the same way. 


So that's one player news item down, one to go.  This one will be much shorter.


Dany Sabourin will likely be a Bear 2012-13.  He resigned with the organization for the upcoming season and barring injuries will be in Hershey for the campaign.

Dany had a solid season this year and it will be great to have him back to help young Philip Grubauer, who is expected to make the jump from the ECHL to the AHL. 


So there you go.  Two players you can expect to see in Hershey this upcoming season that we either didn't know about last week or weren't sure about last week.  And I think both are good for Hershey.

2011-12 season is over

It's been a few days now since 7 seconds in the 2nd period ultimately ended the Bears 2011-12 season.  The Baby Pens scored 2 goals in 7 seconds, the 2nd on a freak bounce that went Wilkes-Barre's way, to take a 2-0 lead in the deciding game 5 of the series.  Hershey would respond well in the 3rd period and make it 2-1, but they never got the tying goal.

So a season that started out with high aspirations ends in the first round of the playoffs.  Tim Leone's piece says that the Bears lost 162 man games to injury this season and used 42 different players during the season.  Considering a typical roster consists of 23-25 players, 42 is a lot.  But considering the constant fluctuation of AHL rosters it isn't really that much.

Unfortunately for the Bears the players that were missed to injury and recall were critical pieces to the team puzzle. 

But at the end of the day it doesn't matter.  The season is over and whatever reason you want to give, it doesn't change any of it.

The focus shifts to the 2012-13 season which brings immediate uncertainty as the current affiliation with the Capitals is set to expire this summer.  I think the general opinion is that the affiliation will be extended as it makes sense for both parties...but until the paperwork is completed and signed, you never know.

In addition, the contracts for the Bears coaching staff, Mark French and Troy Mann, have expired.  Here is where I think you need to make a change.  I am not a fan of French's and think that his strategic skills could use some improving. 

But at the same time he has won a lot of games the past 2 seasons despite dealing with a bunch of injuries and recalls in each season.  So maybe he deserves another chance.  When he had a fully healthy team he won 60 games and a Calder Cup. 

Still, I won't be upset if they go a different way...but I can definitely see his contract being extended. 

This decision is not made by Doug Yingst exclusively though.  I am sure he gets a say, but the Capitals are also involved in this decision and they may desire to bring in a coach with a similar coaching style to whomever is behind the bench in Washington. 

We will find out sometime after the Caps postseason run is over...which hopefully doesn't end until June!

As for the players that will be and won't be back for 2012-13...below are a few lists detailing some information.  Keep in mind that any player under contract with Washington will not be in Hershey next season should the affiliation not be extended.

Players Under Contract With Washington for 2012-13:
Ryan Potulny
Cody Eakin
Garrett Mitchell
Mattias Sjogren
Patrick McNeill
Cameran Schilling
Brett Flemming
Tomas Kundratek
Philipp Grubauer
Brandon Anderson

Players Under Contract With Hershey for 2012-13:
David Civitarese
Barry Almeida
TJ Syner
Matt Pope
Julian Brouillette
Patrick Wellar

Washington Capitals Restricted Free Agents:
Mike Carman
Kevin Marshall


Not included on the above lists but also under contract for 2012-13 are Braden Holtby and Dmitry Orlov. I really doubt either player spends a minute in Hershey next season so for the purposes of this post I don't feel it is necessary to talk about them.


Let's assume that the Caps and Bears extend their affiliation agreement.  If that happens I think all of the players listed above will be in Hershey's training camp come September.  I don't see the Caps not tendering offers to Carman and Marshall and every other player is already under contract.

Now, you will notice that there are some big names not listed there.  Keith Aucoin, Chris Bourque, Jacob Micflikier, Boyd Kane, Dany Sabourin, and plenty more. 

I fully expect the Bears to sign a few of either these guys or players like them.  Hershey is always willing to spend some money of free agents and I don't expect the 75th anniversary season to be any different.

Aucoin, to me, is a lock to return.  The question is...does he go to Washington or Hershey?  Based on the minutes that Dale Hunter is giving him in the playoffs right now it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him spend at least parts of the season in Washington. 

The Bears will generally pay 1 or 2 players a decent amount of money to play in Hershey.  The advantage this year is that Ryan Potulny's contract is a 1-way deal meaning the Caps will pay him to play in Hershey should he be reassigned during the season.  That will free up some money for the Bears to spend on additional free agents.

I could obviously speculate for hours on what players the Bears will bring back or look at, but there would not be a science to any of it and it would all just be speculation and rumor starting.  I will say two things though...

1.  The defense is pretty much set.  With McNeill, Schilling, Kundratek, Wellar, Brouillette, and Flemming back and Marshall likely to be back you have your top 7 defensemen.  Patty McNeill will be considered a veteran exempt next season as well so you have a veteran presence already on the roster.  Don't expect too many signings along the blueline.

2.  They need a scorer.  One of the biggest problems this entire season was that there were too many passers on the roster and not enough shooters.  Guys were always looking to make the extra pass instead of taking an open shot.  Not saying guys couldn't shoot or score, but most of the guys were more interested in setting up their linemates than shooting themselves...or at least that's how it felt.  Maybe rookie Stanislav Galiev will help in that regard, but I think the Bears will go looking for a proven goal scorer in free agency.  Someone you look to in big games to come up with the big goals...such as a huge overtime goal in game 5 of the Calder Cup Finals.  Hypothetically speaking of course. 

For the second season in a row the offseason is going to be long.  Few answers about the roster will be resolved before July and actual hockey won't be back until October.  5 full months. 

I agree that we are spoiled as Bears fans...4 Calder Cup Finals in 5 years...but these long summers suck and I am okay with being spoiled.  Hopefully the roster put together for next season will allow us to enjoy Bears hockey well into June 2013.

Bears vs Penguins...first one to 3 wins series

 

Typically in sports, questions about teams are answered during the regular season.  Unfortunately, in minor league sports, things don't always work out the way they are expected to.  With recalls, loans, and trades, sometimes teams never get 'answers'. 
At the beginning of the season the Bears looked like a legitimate Calder Cup contender.  They had 2 goalies who would start for most teams, a defense that, while not exceptional, was definitely strong enough, and an offense that most considered the best in the league. 

Now, the Bears have two goalies that have combined for 7 starts in the AHL this season.  Those 7 starts have resulted in 7 losses by the way. 

The offense has been decimated by recalls and injuries the past month or so.  Keith Aucoin and Cody Eakin remain on recall to Washington and it is unlikely that either will be back until at least game 3 next Wednesday night...if then.  Young Eakin hasn't been in the Caps lineup so far this postseason so the option is there to send him back to Hershey for the playoffs.  However, I think that is unlikely. 

In addition to those two, Jacob Micflikier hasn't played since March 9 and Boyd Kane, DJ King, and Graham Mink have missed games the past few weeks with injuries.  Ryan Potulny has also been banged up in some games and hasn't been practicing 100% of the time either.  And Christian Hanson was injured in a game on February 18 and I don't believe he has done anything since then.

The Bears roster of late has looked more like a college team than an AHL team as a number of players were signed to amateur tryout agreements and were given a rare opportunity at playing time with meaningful games left to play.  Some of the guys have looked good...others have struggled. 

The good news is that the players in Hershey seem to be getting healthy and fewer of the college guys are expected to play meaningful minutes in the postseason.  Micflikier has practiced recently and King, Mink, and Kane all played in games this past weekend.  Hanson is another story, but apparently a return has not been ruled out.  As of Tuesday, he is officially out for games 1 and 2...anything after that is a guess I would imagine.

So the question is...are the Bears good enough to challenge for their 12th Calder Cup this spring? 

As it stands now...no.  The roster as of right now is definitely not good enough.

How about when all the players in Hershey are healthy and a goalie returns from Washington? 

Still...no.

I think the Bears can give the Baby Pens a run with the roster they have now.  As long as they get healthy and a goalie returns.

But you can't convince me that they will get through round 2 without reinforcements from Washington.

That isn't happening until game 3 at best.  So let's not get ahead of ourselves.  The immediate concern is the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.  The first round, best of 5 (still think that is stupid) series begins this Friday.  In case you haven't seen it, here is the schedule:

• Game 1 - Friday, April 20 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre
• Game 2 - Saturday, April 21 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre
• Game 3 - Wednesday, April 25 - 7:00 - in Hershey
• Game 4 - Friday, April 27 - 7:00 - in Hershey (if necessary)
• Game 5 - Saturday, April 28 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre (if necessary)

The Bears and Pens played 12 times during the regular season.  Wilkes-Barre won 7, the Bears 5.  Some of those were overtime or shootout, but honestly...who cares.  A loss is a loss.

It was a pretty even series too.  4 of the games went to extra time and 9 of the games were decided by 2 goals or less, with 6 being decided by 1 goal.

Both teams scored 38 goals, 3.2 per game.  Scoring was higher in Hershey than in Wilkes-Barre but again scoring was even...the Pens scored 22 to Hershey's 21 while at Giant Center, but the Bears scored 17 to the Pens 16 in Wilkes-Barre.

So now the differences:

Hershey was the stronger team in the first period...outscoring the Pens by 5 overall (2 in Hershey, 3 in WB).  But the Penguins were the stronger team in the second period...outscoring the Bears by 4 (all in Hershey).  The third period was pretty even with 14 Bears goals to 15 Wilkes-Barre goals....both teams were better on their home ice in the third period.

And special teams was definitely different.  Hershey converted on 31% of their power plays on home ice but only 17.1% on the road.  Wilkes-Barre only went 11.1% at Giant Center and a slightly better 17.6% on home ice.

That's the season series in a nutshell.  It was closer than it felt because of Wilkes-Barre's domination the past couple of seasons.  Up until February 5 the Bears hadn't beaten the Pens in Hershey in multiple seasons.  Then they won the last 2 home games against the Pens including a 5-1 beating on February 12 (after Aucoin's recall). 

Let's dig a little deeper and figure out which team has the upper hand going into the series:

Goaltending

Wilkes-Barre has their top 2 goalies ready to go.  Scott Munroe went 19-10-3 on the season with a 2.52 goals against average and a save percentage of .907.  Brad Thiessen went 23-15-2 with a 2.82 gaa and .887 save percentage. 

Thiessen played in 9 of the 12 games against Hershey this season going 5-3-1 with a 2.86 gaa and .884 save percentage.  Pretty similar to the rest of his season.  He was in goal for both of Hershey's blowout wins as well.

Munroe only played in 3 games and went 2-0-1.  But his measurables were worse then Thiessen's...3.48 gaa and .878 save percentage. 

The expectation is that Thiessen will get the first chance, but who knows for sure.

In Hershey things are a little bit of a question mark.  Obviously.  But we aren't going to consider anything except for Dany Sabourin and Braden Holtby.  Neuvy practiced in full yesterday so there is a good chance he will be ready to back up Holtby tonight against the Bruins which would allow Sabs to come back to Hershey.

Dany went 18-12-5 with a 2.76 gaa and .909 save percentage on the season.  Unfortunately he was weaker against the Pens...6 games played, 5 started...4 of those were losses (one in a shootout) and only one was a win...that was the first game of the season.  His measurables?  4.07 gaa with a .855 gaa.

Now, Dany has been better of late.  In March and April he was 8-3-2 with a 2.17 gaa and .926 save percentage.  Those are good numbers.

Obviously Dany is capable of being the guy...but Braden has been a stud against the Pens this year. 

Should Braden come back for game 3...here are his numbers against the Pens:

7 starts...4-3...gaa of 2.00 and a save percentage of .926.  And he was exceptional in 3 starts in Wilkes-Barre...1.44 gaa and a save percentage of .939.

Unfortunately Braden won't be in Hershey for games 1 and 2...at least.  So...

Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.

Defense

Defense is such a hard thing to judge.  They have so much influence over the goaltending numbers and yet, there is really no way to truly judge a defenseman at this level without looking at every single game and every single shift. 

Wilkes-Barre is expected to run with a group of defensemen that looks like this:  Alexadre Picard, Robert Bortuzzo, Cody Wild, Alex Grant, Joey Mormina, and Philip Samuelsson.  Simon Despres would be in the lineup but he was just recalled to Pittsburgh and may or may not be back. 

Combined those 6 players (not counting Despres) played 47 games against the Bears this year, scored 4 goals, added 11 assists, and finished a combined +2.  Individually, Alex Grant was the best with a +7 rating and 6 assists in 9 games against the Bears this season.  Bortuzzo played in only 6 games and finished with 1 assist and a -3 rating. 

There isn't an offensive stud among them and the Pens finished the season middle of the pack (15th) in goals against per game.  An average group I believe.

Hershey is a different story.  We are going to look at the Bears top 5 defenseman as those are definitive.  Patrick McNeill, Kevin Marshall, Sean Collins, Julien Brouillette, and Tomas Kundratek.  The 6th will probably be Cameron Schilling, but I could see Patrick Wellar get a chance as well. 

Looking at the top 5 though...47 games played against the Pens...8 goals, 13 assists and a combined +1 rating.  McNeill is actually the teams 3rd leading scorer against the Pens this year with 1 goal and 9 assists in 12 games.  But he was a -6 and 8 of those points were on the power play...which tend to shrink in the playoffs.

Kundratek was pretty solid as well with 4 goals and a +6 rating in 8 games against the Pens in 2011-12.  Wellar, should he get a jersey, was a +3 with 2 assists as well so he did well. 

Overall, the Bears defense...I think...is better than Wilkes-Barre's.  Especially when you consider the more aggressive system in place that calls for the defensemen to pinch more often. 

Advantage...Hershey.

Forwards

The Baby Pens leading scorer on the season was Ben Street who had 27 goals and 30 assists and averaged .80 points per game.  The Bears had 5 players (including Aucoin) who averaged .88 or better per game.  So keep that in mind when looking at the numbers below...Hershey is a bit more top heavy than the Pens.

Wilkes-Barre saw 9 different forwards play in 10 or more games against the Bears this season.  All 9 of them are expected to get jersey's during the playoffs as well.  The anticipated line combinations for the Pens are (the names listed in italics are the 9 who played in 10+ against Hershey):

Nick Petersen - Ben Street - Geoff Walker
Bryan Lerg - Cal O’Reilly - Paul Thompson
Jason Williams - Brian Gibbons - Colin McDonald
Ryan Craig - Zach Sill - Brandon DeFazio

Eric Tangradi is a candidate to return should the big Pens get eliminated this weekend, but he surely won't be in the lineup for game 1.

11 of the 12 players mentioned above scored at least one goal against the Bears this season.  Only Cal O'Reilly, who only played 1 game against the Bears this season, didn't score. 

No player had more than 3 goals but 7 of the 12 had 3 goals (Peterson, Street, McDonald, Walker, Williams, Lerg, DeFazio). 

The leading scorers against the Bears were Street (3g, 8a), McDonald (3g, 7a), and Lerg (3g, 8a). 

Just a note...Tangradi scored 3 and added 3 assists in only 7 games against the Bears. 

The Pens have had a very similar lineup and has gotten production from all of them against the Bears this season. 

Hershey on the other hand has seen many different players make appearances.  But there has been some consistency as well as 7 players have appeared in at least 10 of the games between the teams.  Although one of those players is Christian Hanson...who isn't going to play in games 1 and 2.

Hershey's anticipated lines...keep in mind that this is my interpretation based on practice sessions...are (again, players with 10+ games played in the season series are in italics):

Kyle Greentree - Ryan Potulny - Graham Mink
Boyd Kane - Jacob Micflikier - Chris Bourque
Barry Almeida - Mike Carman - Matt Pope
DJ King - Andrew Carroll - Garrett Mitchell

Hershey does not have the scoring balance of the Pens though.  Only 8 of the above players have scored a goal against the Pens in 2011-12 and only 3 of them (Greentree, Micflikier, and Potulny) have 3 or more goals.  And Greentree got 2 of his in the last game between the teams.

Leading scorers in the series (among forwards) are Bourque (2g, 10a) and Potulny (6g, 6a).  Kane, Micflikier, and Greentree all have 6 points.

Just a note...Aucoin had 2 goals and 5 assists in 8 games and Eakin had 3 goals and 1 assist in 7 games this season.  Should they return.

Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.

Random Stats and Thoughts

Scoring Margin:

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Overtime	Overall
Bears	+18	+9	-4	-3	+19
Pens	+8	+6	+2	+2	+20

This is a bit different than the season series between the teams which saw Wilkes-Barre play much better in the 2nd period and Hershey was actually better in the 3rd than their season overall. 

What to take from this...minimal...but keep it in mind if/when the Bears jump out to a first period lead.  They do that often and many times fail to hold on.

Special Teams:

Team	PP	PK	PP vs	PK vs
Bears	25.5%	84.4%	23.4%	85.2
Pens	18.8%	81.6%	14.8%	76.6%

The first two columns are overall for the season.  Last 2 are for the season series.

The Bears had the #1 ranked power play during the season and their penalty kill was #4. The Pens had the #10 power play and #22 penalty kill.

So you would think that the Bears would have a large advantage here...right?  Well...check out the numbers for the last 10 games:

Team	PP	PK
Bears	20.5%	80.5%
Pens	20.9%	88.4%

Of late the Pens have been very good both a man up and a man down.  In fact, it gets even better for the Pens.  On home ice (which they get 3 times, if necessary, this series) they have faced 22 short handed situations over the past 5 home games...they have killed off 21 of them.  That's 95.5% kill rate.  Pretty good.

More bad news for the Bears?  They are only scoring on 16% of their power plays at home in the last 5 home games and are allowing power play goals on 25% of the allowed chances on the road in their last 5 road games. 

Obviously you can throw many of these numbers out the window when the goalie situation calms down in Hershey and (if) guys like Aucoin return from Washington.

But it is something to keep in mind.

Record When Scoring First:

Team	# FG	Record	Win %
Bears	45	24-12-4-5	.533
Pens	39	29-7-1-2	.744

Nobody scored the first goal more than Hershey this season.  And no one had more losses (including SO and OT) after doing so than the Bears.  Wilkes-Barre, meanwhile, was top 5 in winning the games where they scored the first goal.

In the season series the Pens scored the first goal 5 times and won 4 of those games.  The Bears scored the first goal 7 times and won only 4 of those.  So the season averages pretty much held up.

Home vs Road:

Team	Home	Road	Home Vs	Road Vs
Bears	20-11-2-5	18-15-2-3	2-2-1-1	3-3-0-0
Pens	18-16-2-2	26-9-0-3	3-2-0-1	4-1-0-1

Here is the great equalizer for the Bears in my opinion.  The Pens are simply put...not good at home.  Most teams are great at home, average on the road...like the Bears.  But the Pens are not.  Under .500 winning percentage at home on the season and only .500 vs the Bears this season.

So it really is strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness in this series as far as home/road performance goes.  Hershey is strongest at home, Wilkes-Barre strongest on the road.  Hershey is weaker on the road, WB is weaker at home.

I honestly think that this helps the Bears more than anything else.  Knowing that they can win in their building will definitely help heading into the series. 

Will it be the difference?  Maybe.

My Pick

Tim Leone is a true journalist so he has to keep a somewhat subjective view of the team and the league.  He picked the Pens to beat the Bears in 5 games. 

I am not a journalist and don't have to keep a subjective view.  I am picking the Bears in 4.  And here is why...

The Caps will lose 2 of their next 3 and will be eliminated from the NHL playoffs by the end of the day on Sunday.  This is not necessarily what I want (I am rooting for the Caps every second), but without Nicky Backstrom tonight and with the Bruins capitalizing more often on the Caps defensive and goaltending lapses, I don't see this series going 7 games.  And I don't see the Caps winning it.

So, Hershey would split the games in weekend with Jacob Micflikier playing 2nd line center (definite offensive improvement over what the other options have been) and then Aucoin and Eakin will return for games 3, 4, and if necessary, 5.

Earlier this week I said that Hershey's biggest problem was at 2nd line center...not anymore in my opinion. The last time Hershey had a offensively gifted 2nd line center...the Bears won 7 straight. 

Now, if the Caps at least force a game 7 or should they win the series outright, I think the Bears would need the 5th game just to have a chance at the series. 

The Bears are a much better team then they have been the past couple of weeks.  They will show it in round 1.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!