Bears vs Penguins...first one to 3 wins series

 

Typically in sports, questions about teams are answered during the regular season.  Unfortunately, in minor league sports, things don't always work out the way they are expected to.  With recalls, loans, and trades, sometimes teams never get 'answers'. 
At the beginning of the season the Bears looked like a legitimate Calder Cup contender.  They had 2 goalies who would start for most teams, a defense that, while not exceptional, was definitely strong enough, and an offense that most considered the best in the league. 

Now, the Bears have two goalies that have combined for 7 starts in the AHL this season.  Those 7 starts have resulted in 7 losses by the way. 

The offense has been decimated by recalls and injuries the past month or so.  Keith Aucoin and Cody Eakin remain on recall to Washington and it is unlikely that either will be back until at least game 3 next Wednesday night...if then.  Young Eakin hasn't been in the Caps lineup so far this postseason so the option is there to send him back to Hershey for the playoffs.  However, I think that is unlikely. 

In addition to those two, Jacob Micflikier hasn't played since March 9 and Boyd Kane, DJ King, and Graham Mink have missed games the past few weeks with injuries.  Ryan Potulny has also been banged up in some games and hasn't been practicing 100% of the time either.  And Christian Hanson was injured in a game on February 18 and I don't believe he has done anything since then.

The Bears roster of late has looked more like a college team than an AHL team as a number of players were signed to amateur tryout agreements and were given a rare opportunity at playing time with meaningful games left to play.  Some of the guys have looked good...others have struggled. 

The good news is that the players in Hershey seem to be getting healthy and fewer of the college guys are expected to play meaningful minutes in the postseason.  Micflikier has practiced recently and King, Mink, and Kane all played in games this past weekend.  Hanson is another story, but apparently a return has not been ruled out.  As of Tuesday, he is officially out for games 1 and 2...anything after that is a guess I would imagine.

So the question is...are the Bears good enough to challenge for their 12th Calder Cup this spring? 

As it stands now...no.  The roster as of right now is definitely not good enough.

How about when all the players in Hershey are healthy and a goalie returns from Washington? 

Still...no.

I think the Bears can give the Baby Pens a run with the roster they have now.  As long as they get healthy and a goalie returns.

But you can't convince me that they will get through round 2 without reinforcements from Washington.

That isn't happening until game 3 at best.  So let's not get ahead of ourselves.  The immediate concern is the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.  The first round, best of 5 (still think that is stupid) series begins this Friday.  In case you haven't seen it, here is the schedule:

• Game 1 - Friday, April 20 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre
• Game 2 - Saturday, April 21 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre
• Game 3 - Wednesday, April 25 - 7:00 - in Hershey
• Game 4 - Friday, April 27 - 7:00 - in Hershey (if necessary)
• Game 5 - Saturday, April 28 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre (if necessary)

The Bears and Pens played 12 times during the regular season.  Wilkes-Barre won 7, the Bears 5.  Some of those were overtime or shootout, but honestly...who cares.  A loss is a loss.

It was a pretty even series too.  4 of the games went to extra time and 9 of the games were decided by 2 goals or less, with 6 being decided by 1 goal.

Both teams scored 38 goals, 3.2 per game.  Scoring was higher in Hershey than in Wilkes-Barre but again scoring was even...the Pens scored 22 to Hershey's 21 while at Giant Center, but the Bears scored 17 to the Pens 16 in Wilkes-Barre.

So now the differences:

Hershey was the stronger team in the first period...outscoring the Pens by 5 overall (2 in Hershey, 3 in WB).  But the Penguins were the stronger team in the second period...outscoring the Bears by 4 (all in Hershey).  The third period was pretty even with 14 Bears goals to 15 Wilkes-Barre goals....both teams were better on their home ice in the third period.

And special teams was definitely different.  Hershey converted on 31% of their power plays on home ice but only 17.1% on the road.  Wilkes-Barre only went 11.1% at Giant Center and a slightly better 17.6% on home ice.

That's the season series in a nutshell.  It was closer than it felt because of Wilkes-Barre's domination the past couple of seasons.  Up until February 5 the Bears hadn't beaten the Pens in Hershey in multiple seasons.  Then they won the last 2 home games against the Pens including a 5-1 beating on February 12 (after Aucoin's recall). 

Let's dig a little deeper and figure out which team has the upper hand going into the series:

Goaltending

Wilkes-Barre has their top 2 goalies ready to go.  Scott Munroe went 19-10-3 on the season with a 2.52 goals against average and a save percentage of .907.  Brad Thiessen went 23-15-2 with a 2.82 gaa and .887 save percentage. 

Thiessen played in 9 of the 12 games against Hershey this season going 5-3-1 with a 2.86 gaa and .884 save percentage.  Pretty similar to the rest of his season.  He was in goal for both of Hershey's blowout wins as well.

Munroe only played in 3 games and went 2-0-1.  But his measurables were worse then Thiessen's...3.48 gaa and .878 save percentage. 

The expectation is that Thiessen will get the first chance, but who knows for sure.

In Hershey things are a little bit of a question mark.  Obviously.  But we aren't going to consider anything except for Dany Sabourin and Braden Holtby.  Neuvy practiced in full yesterday so there is a good chance he will be ready to back up Holtby tonight against the Bruins which would allow Sabs to come back to Hershey.

Dany went 18-12-5 with a 2.76 gaa and .909 save percentage on the season.  Unfortunately he was weaker against the Pens...6 games played, 5 started...4 of those were losses (one in a shootout) and only one was a win...that was the first game of the season.  His measurables?  4.07 gaa with a .855 gaa.

Now, Dany has been better of late.  In March and April he was 8-3-2 with a 2.17 gaa and .926 save percentage.  Those are good numbers.

Obviously Dany is capable of being the guy...but Braden has been a stud against the Pens this year. 

Should Braden come back for game 3...here are his numbers against the Pens:

7 starts...4-3...gaa of 2.00 and a save percentage of .926.  And he was exceptional in 3 starts in Wilkes-Barre...1.44 gaa and a save percentage of .939.

Unfortunately Braden won't be in Hershey for games 1 and 2...at least.  So...

Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.

Defense

Defense is such a hard thing to judge.  They have so much influence over the goaltending numbers and yet, there is really no way to truly judge a defenseman at this level without looking at every single game and every single shift. 

Wilkes-Barre is expected to run with a group of defensemen that looks like this:  Alexadre Picard, Robert Bortuzzo, Cody Wild, Alex Grant, Joey Mormina, and Philip Samuelsson.  Simon Despres would be in the lineup but he was just recalled to Pittsburgh and may or may not be back. 

Combined those 6 players (not counting Despres) played 47 games against the Bears this year, scored 4 goals, added 11 assists, and finished a combined +2.  Individually, Alex Grant was the best with a +7 rating and 6 assists in 9 games against the Bears this season.  Bortuzzo played in only 6 games and finished with 1 assist and a -3 rating. 

There isn't an offensive stud among them and the Pens finished the season middle of the pack (15th) in goals against per game.  An average group I believe.

Hershey is a different story.  We are going to look at the Bears top 5 defenseman as those are definitive.  Patrick McNeill, Kevin Marshall, Sean Collins, Julien Brouillette, and Tomas Kundratek.  The 6th will probably be Cameron Schilling, but I could see Patrick Wellar get a chance as well. 

Looking at the top 5 though...47 games played against the Pens...8 goals, 13 assists and a combined +1 rating.  McNeill is actually the teams 3rd leading scorer against the Pens this year with 1 goal and 9 assists in 12 games.  But he was a -6 and 8 of those points were on the power play...which tend to shrink in the playoffs.

Kundratek was pretty solid as well with 4 goals and a +6 rating in 8 games against the Pens in 2011-12.  Wellar, should he get a jersey, was a +3 with 2 assists as well so he did well. 

Overall, the Bears defense...I think...is better than Wilkes-Barre's.  Especially when you consider the more aggressive system in place that calls for the defensemen to pinch more often. 

Advantage...Hershey.

Forwards

The Baby Pens leading scorer on the season was Ben Street who had 27 goals and 30 assists and averaged .80 points per game.  The Bears had 5 players (including Aucoin) who averaged .88 or better per game.  So keep that in mind when looking at the numbers below...Hershey is a bit more top heavy than the Pens.

Wilkes-Barre saw 9 different forwards play in 10 or more games against the Bears this season.  All 9 of them are expected to get jersey's during the playoffs as well.  The anticipated line combinations for the Pens are (the names listed in italics are the 9 who played in 10+ against Hershey):

Nick Petersen - Ben Street - Geoff Walker
Bryan Lerg - Cal O’Reilly - Paul Thompson
Jason Williams - Brian Gibbons - Colin McDonald
Ryan Craig - Zach Sill - Brandon DeFazio

Eric Tangradi is a candidate to return should the big Pens get eliminated this weekend, but he surely won't be in the lineup for game 1.

11 of the 12 players mentioned above scored at least one goal against the Bears this season.  Only Cal O'Reilly, who only played 1 game against the Bears this season, didn't score. 

No player had more than 3 goals but 7 of the 12 had 3 goals (Peterson, Street, McDonald, Walker, Williams, Lerg, DeFazio). 

The leading scorers against the Bears were Street (3g, 8a), McDonald (3g, 7a), and Lerg (3g, 8a). 

Just a note...Tangradi scored 3 and added 3 assists in only 7 games against the Bears. 

The Pens have had a very similar lineup and has gotten production from all of them against the Bears this season. 

Hershey on the other hand has seen many different players make appearances.  But there has been some consistency as well as 7 players have appeared in at least 10 of the games between the teams.  Although one of those players is Christian Hanson...who isn't going to play in games 1 and 2.

Hershey's anticipated lines...keep in mind that this is my interpretation based on practice sessions...are (again, players with 10+ games played in the season series are in italics):

Kyle Greentree - Ryan Potulny - Graham Mink
Boyd Kane - Jacob Micflikier - Chris Bourque
Barry Almeida - Mike Carman - Matt Pope
DJ King - Andrew Carroll - Garrett Mitchell

Hershey does not have the scoring balance of the Pens though.  Only 8 of the above players have scored a goal against the Pens in 2011-12 and only 3 of them (Greentree, Micflikier, and Potulny) have 3 or more goals.  And Greentree got 2 of his in the last game between the teams.

Leading scorers in the series (among forwards) are Bourque (2g, 10a) and Potulny (6g, 6a).  Kane, Micflikier, and Greentree all have 6 points.

Just a note...Aucoin had 2 goals and 5 assists in 8 games and Eakin had 3 goals and 1 assist in 7 games this season.  Should they return.

Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.

Random Stats and Thoughts

Scoring Margin:

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Overtime	Overall
Bears	+18	+9	-4	-3	+19
Pens	+8	+6	+2	+2	+20

This is a bit different than the season series between the teams which saw Wilkes-Barre play much better in the 2nd period and Hershey was actually better in the 3rd than their season overall. 

What to take from this...minimal...but keep it in mind if/when the Bears jump out to a first period lead.  They do that often and many times fail to hold on.

Special Teams:

Team	PP	PK	PP vs	PK vs
Bears	25.5%	84.4%	23.4%	85.2
Pens	18.8%	81.6%	14.8%	76.6%

The first two columns are overall for the season.  Last 2 are for the season series.

The Bears had the #1 ranked power play during the season and their penalty kill was #4. The Pens had the #10 power play and #22 penalty kill.

So you would think that the Bears would have a large advantage here...right?  Well...check out the numbers for the last 10 games:

Team	PP	PK
Bears	20.5%	80.5%
Pens	20.9%	88.4%

Of late the Pens have been very good both a man up and a man down.  In fact, it gets even better for the Pens.  On home ice (which they get 3 times, if necessary, this series) they have faced 22 short handed situations over the past 5 home games...they have killed off 21 of them.  That's 95.5% kill rate.  Pretty good.

More bad news for the Bears?  They are only scoring on 16% of their power plays at home in the last 5 home games and are allowing power play goals on 25% of the allowed chances on the road in their last 5 road games. 

Obviously you can throw many of these numbers out the window when the goalie situation calms down in Hershey and (if) guys like Aucoin return from Washington.

But it is something to keep in mind.

Record When Scoring First:

Team	# FG	Record	Win %
Bears	45	24-12-4-5	.533
Pens	39	29-7-1-2	.744

Nobody scored the first goal more than Hershey this season.  And no one had more losses (including SO and OT) after doing so than the Bears.  Wilkes-Barre, meanwhile, was top 5 in winning the games where they scored the first goal.

In the season series the Pens scored the first goal 5 times and won 4 of those games.  The Bears scored the first goal 7 times and won only 4 of those.  So the season averages pretty much held up.

Home vs Road:

Team	Home	Road	Home Vs	Road Vs
Bears	20-11-2-5	18-15-2-3	2-2-1-1	3-3-0-0
Pens	18-16-2-2	26-9-0-3	3-2-0-1	4-1-0-1

Here is the great equalizer for the Bears in my opinion.  The Pens are simply put...not good at home.  Most teams are great at home, average on the road...like the Bears.  But the Pens are not.  Under .500 winning percentage at home on the season and only .500 vs the Bears this season.

So it really is strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness in this series as far as home/road performance goes.  Hershey is strongest at home, Wilkes-Barre strongest on the road.  Hershey is weaker on the road, WB is weaker at home.

I honestly think that this helps the Bears more than anything else.  Knowing that they can win in their building will definitely help heading into the series. 

Will it be the difference?  Maybe.

My Pick

Tim Leone is a true journalist so he has to keep a somewhat subjective view of the team and the league.  He picked the Pens to beat the Bears in 5 games. 

I am not a journalist and don't have to keep a subjective view.  I am picking the Bears in 4.  And here is why...

The Caps will lose 2 of their next 3 and will be eliminated from the NHL playoffs by the end of the day on Sunday.  This is not necessarily what I want (I am rooting for the Caps every second), but without Nicky Backstrom tonight and with the Bruins capitalizing more often on the Caps defensive and goaltending lapses, I don't see this series going 7 games.  And I don't see the Caps winning it.

So, Hershey would split the games in weekend with Jacob Micflikier playing 2nd line center (definite offensive improvement over what the other options have been) and then Aucoin and Eakin will return for games 3, 4, and if necessary, 5.

Earlier this week I said that Hershey's biggest problem was at 2nd line center...not anymore in my opinion. The last time Hershey had a offensively gifted 2nd line center...the Bears won 7 straight. 

Now, if the Caps at least force a game 7 or should they win the series outright, I think the Bears would need the 5th game just to have a chance at the series. 

The Bears are a much better team then they have been the past couple of weeks.  They will show it in round 1.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!

Bears entering playoffs in need of help

8 straight losses.  The last 4 in regulation. 

Outscored 14-7 over the weekend.

On Sunday, the starting goalie for the Bears was Scott Greenham.  Greenham was recently known as the starting goaltender for the University of Alaska-Fairbanks.  He recently completed his senior season, during which he played in 33 games going 11-18-4 with a 2.47 goals against average and a .905 save percentage.

Obviously the record and stats are as much about the team as they are the goalie, but did you really think that this could be the goalie for the first round of the AHL playoffs?

At the beginning of the season I felt as though the goaltending would be the Bears biggest question for the playoffs.  I didn't realize I was such a prophet.

Braden Holtby is the new #1 goalie in Washington and Dany Sabourin is the current #2. 

But the goaltending issues are very possible to be resolved by the time game 1 rolls around on Friday.  Michal Neuvirth is getting better and seems likely to be able to at least back up the apparently 'unflappable' Holtby by then.

Which means Dany will be back in Hershey and the goaltending isn't as much of a question anymore.

Does that make you feel better though?

Based on the last 8 games I would say the Bears problems rest somewhere other that between the pipes.  Sure Daren Machesney was brutal this past weekend, but Dany played in 4 of the last 8 games...and remember, they were all losses.

So the Bears problem is located somewhere in the remaining 5 guys on the ice. 

The defense is healthy.  Kevin Marshall returned to the lineup this weekend after being disciplined by the coaching staff for some questionable behavior.  Which means the defense is pretty much at full strength.  While not perfect, not really a problem either.

So that leaves the forwards.  Graham Mink, Boyd Kane, and DJ King returned to the lineup this weekend after missing time.  Minker was out for a while and getting him back is definitely a big deal. 

But it didn't exactly lead to offensive production this weekend.  Mink recorded no points and finished the weekend a -1 with 7 shots.  Kane and King, more role players than Mink, weren't much better.

That leaves Jacob Micflikier as the only Bear who is looking to make his return to the lineup in the first round.  He practiced fully last week but did not make the trip over the weekend.  More than likely that was a precautionary measure more than anything and he will likely be ready to go for Friday night.

Does that solve the problem? 

Not in my eyes.  Getting Miclikier back is definitely a big deal and will absolutely help, but Hershey's problem right now is down the middle.

Currently there are 3 centers on the Bears roster, according to the team roster on AHL.com.  They are Ryan Potulny, Mike Carmen, and Andrew Carroll.  David Civitarese has been playing 4th line center of late so he would be the 4th center for the sake of this argument.

Carroll played in 68 games this season for the Bears and he was absolutely a key member in many regards.  He is a good defensive player who kills penalties and brings a high energy game to the lineup.  But he scored 1 goal and added only 5 assists in those 68 games.  He is currently the 3rd line center. 

At the beginning of the season Christian Hanson and Cody Eakin were playing 3rd line center.  No offense to Carroll...that is a downgrade.

Carmen joined the team in February and played 32 games for the Bears.  He has 7 goals and 5 assists in those games.  Solid for a 3rd line center.  But he is currently the 2nd line center.

At the beginning of the season the centers were Keith Aucoin, Potulny, Eakin/Hanson, and Carroll.  Obviously Potulny and Aucoin are in a different class so I won't even discuss them, but let's take a look at what Christian and Cody did while they were with the Bears. 

Eakin had 13 goals and 14 assists in 43 games.  Hanson had 10 goals and 11 assists in 51 games.  As I said, Carmen's numbers aren't terrible...for a 3rd line center.

Unfortunately for the Bears they are going to have to figure out some way to get through at least the first 2 games against the Pens without a true 2nd-line center.  With the Capitals win over the Bruins on Saturday it guarantees that the series will now go through at least Saturday.  Hershey visits Wilkes-Barre this Friday and Saturday for games 1 and 2.

It would be nice if the Caps would send Cody Eakin back for the Bears games.  He isn't playing for the Caps and while it would surely be nice to have him for practice, I can't imagine there will be much practicing for the Caps during those couple of days.  But I am sure as hell not going to hold my breathe.

I am pretty sure that Coach French also recognizes the problem as last week, according to one of Tim Leone's practice updates, Jacob Micflikier was working as the 2nd line center. 

That might work out as well as Micflik can surely play a Cody Eakin like game.  But it would just be a short term solution.

You could make the argument that the center problem is just a minor hiccup.  But just so everyone is aware, the Bears are 1-6-0-2 since the Bears last had a legitimate 2nd line center in the lineup.  That was Eakin and the only win came against the AHL's cellar-dwelling Binghamton Senators. 

The Bears are going to have to buckle down defensively and play a solid all around game while capitalizing on their opportunities.  I fully expect the Pens to outshoot and out-chance the Bears on Friday and Saturday.  Hopefully the Bears can make the most of turnovers and power plays and get a few lucky bounces.

It's going to be a tough series considering the Bears personnel limitations currently.  But I still have confidence.  Bears in 4.

I will have a full blown series preview (or multiple maybe) later this week so definitely check back often. 

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

Bears vs Checkers....preview #3

This is the final series preview post and this is where I give my final pick for this round...and maybe the entire postseason...I am not sure yet.  (Note...I just finished writing and this ended up being much longer than I anticipated...sorry. If you just want my predictions then just scroll to the bottom to see them.  Thanks for reading!)

Tonight at 7:00pm Hershey begins their quest for their 3rd consecutive Calder Cup.  John Walton discusses the rarity of the opportunity in a post of his own on PennLive.com today. 

16 wins.  That is the only thing that separates Hershey from probably the greatest team feat this league has ever seen.  In the history of the AHL only 1 team, the 1960-62 Springfield Indians, has won 3 straight Cups.  And they did it when the league was only 8 teams.

First up though is Charlotte.  You need 4 wins in this series before you worry about anything else. 

One game at a time...One series at a time.

The first round opponent the last two years for Hershey (Philly and Bridgeport) weren't that good to be honest.  Hershey managed to get through those series quickly and with little difficulty.

The Checkers are a different animal.  I guess they aren't even an animal...hmmm.  Getting off track now. 

They bring multiple 20+ goal scorers, plenty of young talent, and a successful campaign up until this point into Giant Center for game 1 tonight.

Yesterday I discussed some cool or not so cool stats, depending on how you interpret them and how much emphasis you put on the statistics.

This morning you might have seen my breakdown of the players for each team.

Now you get my overall thoughts on the series in general.

I think Hershey is the better team.  When healthy I think Hershey is as good a team as there is in the AHL.  (Obviously Tim Leone agrees with me as he picked Hershey to raise their 12th cup).

In my opinion there are plenty of questions surrounding the Bears entering the playoffs. 

Can Braden Holtby play like Neuvy and carry the Bears?
Can the team stay healthy?
Can the power play and penalty kill return to early season form?
Will the role players step up?
Is there a star who can shoulder the load?

Obviously I can't answer those questions yet.  Only time will tell.

But I can give you my opinion on those questions.

Can Braden Holtby play like Neuvy and carry the Bears?

Holtby will play like Neuvy and carry the Bears.  It's simple I think.  When Braden was in Washington there was substantial pressure and uncertainty for him.  And he thrived.  Back in Hershey during the regular season there was little pressure and not really any uncertainty as he is the #1 goalie in Hershey.

But now the playoffs are here.  Now there is pressure.  Now there is uncertainty.  Braden knows that he must play like he did in Washington or the entire team will be playing golf earlier then they want to.

Can the team stay healthy?

This is as much a question posed to the Caps as it is in Hershey.  If the Capitals suffer any bad injuries that could derail Hershey's Calder Cup aspirations quicker than anything else. 

As for the Hershey players directly...I actually think the time off this season will help.  In the previous 2 seasons Hershey played a combined 203 games.  Then you add in the 80 this season.  That is 283 games in 3 years.

That's a lot of hockey.  And it takes a toll on the players, just ask the AHL...they just reduced the number of games for 2011-12 because of the grueling schedule.  No team has played as grueling a schedule as Hershey has of late.

So the time off for the players, guys like Aucoin, Gordon, McNeill, Pinner, they got to rest a little bit more than they usually would have.  In theory, and this is just a theory, they will be fresher during the playoffs then they would have been previously.

I think they come out strong, with excellent energy and motivation.

Can the power play and penalty kill return to early season form?


This is somewhat tied to the previous question.  The power play and penalty kill really started to fade when the injuries started.  As those players continue to get reacquainted with each other they will likely begin producing like they did previously.

It will come.  Maybe not in game 1, maybe not in game 2 but at some point in this series the power play will all of a sudden hit their stride.

Will the role players step up?


This is important.  Hershey doesn't have the number of top players like they did last year.  Chris Bourque and Alexander Giroux really carried this team for stretches last year.  The role players didn't need to play as big a role.

This season players like Bouchard, Kane, Pinner, Rome, Kozek...they will be playing larger roles and definitely need to produce. 

Kane tallied 24 goals and 25 assists this season.  Only 3 goals and 3 assists have come since the beginning of March.  He needs to do more.

Bouch stepped up late and produced 3 goals and 2 assists over an 8 game span.  But it was still a disappointing season as he produced only 12 goals and 12 assists.  A resurgence in the playoffs would be huge.

Andrew Kozek came over from Chicago where he had scored 7 goals and 5 assists in 57 games.  He has played 14 games for Hershey and has 4 goals and 4 assists.  He needs to keep it up.

In the end I think Hershey's role players definitely step up and contribute enough.  Which is exactly what you want.

Is there a star who can shoulder the load?


Last year and the year before you knew who to look towards for a goal in a pressure situation.  Giroux was the king as far as Hershey offense was concerned.  Last spring Bourque definitely served as prince and took home the Playoff MVP trophy.

This year is a concern.  And personally...this scares me the most.  I don't think there is a player on this team that is capable of stepping up in the big situations and make the big play.

I definitely hope I am wrong on that.  There are plenty of candidates...Gordon, Willsie, Greentree, Perreault, Aucoin.  But none of them (other than Greentree) are pure goal scorers.  And Greentree is not uber-consistent. 

In the end I think a committee like approach can work.  But I would much rather see one of these guys distinguish himself as THE MAN when a goal needs to be scored.  I think it is currently the biggest weakness on the team.


So there...I answered most of the questions that I HAD for the team entering the playoffs and this series.

The most important note from all these preview posts would be this...

Charlotte (and most of the other teams) have yet to see Hershey at full strength.  Perry spent considerable time in Washington.  McNeill, Souray, Nycholat all spent time injured.  Aucoin, Gordon...injured. 

If you think about how good the year was for Hershey (they finished 4th in the league overall) and then you consider that they missed so many games to injuries and call ups.  It's pretty impressive isn't it!?!?

Now the predictions part...

Bears over Checkers in 5 games.  That's right.  I spent the first 2 posts of this series telling you how good the Checkers are and now I am saying they win only 1 game.  That tells you how good I think this team can be when healthy. 

Calder Cup...let me say this...I am not as confident as I was last year or the year before that.  I am worried that the season will end before June.

But I refuse to succumb to those worries.  Bears will take the Cup! 

You know why...because Braden is that damn good!  He will carry this team to their 3rd consecutive Calder Cup.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!



Bears vs Checkers....preview #2

 VS.

Yesterday we looked at some stats that tell a bit of a story.  In many ways the Charlotte Checkers were the superior team to Hershey this season.

But stats are generally meaningless once you get to the postseason.  The best teams routinely get ousted in the playoffs.

Winning in the playoffs in many ways comes down to players and getting the occasional bounce to go your way.

Since there is no way to break down fortunate bounces we will instead look at the players today.

GOALTENDING:

Here is a category that most Bears fans would probably feel really good about.  The Bears have Braden Holtby.  He has been great for the Bears and even a bit better for the Capitals this season.

For sake of this preview we are going to assume that Braden Holtby and Justin Pogge will be the goalies for each game of the series.  Mike Murphy and Dany Sabourin would be the top backups but they are both injured.  Nolan Schaefer and Bobby Goepfert are the current backups.

But we only care about the starters.  During the regular season they compare like this...

	GP	Record	GA	GAA	Saves	Save %
Holtby	30	17-10-2	68	2.29	777	92%
Pogge	48	22-18-4	136	3.12	1327	90.7%

Pretty good for both guys to be honest.  Braden's numbers are better but that was to be expected.

Now let's look at how they performed in the season series...

	GP	Record	GA	GAA	Saves	Save %
Holtby	5	2-3	16	3.15	126	88.7%
Pogge	4	0-1-1	7	2.59	83	92.2%

That tells a different story a bit doesn't it.  Pogge's stats are slightly deceiving as he was pulled in 1 game against Hershey and was tossed in another.  So while he only allowed 7 goals many of them came in a short amount of time.

I don't think too many people would argue the fact that Holtby is the better overall goalie right now but he struggled against the Checkers this season, hasn't looked great in recent outings (unless he is playing for Washington), and struggled in his 3 playoff outings last season.

Pogge can be rattled as he did multiple times this season.  If Hershey can crash the net and crowd his crease they should be able to frustrate the Checkers #1.


DEFENSE:

This is one of the hardest things to measure.  How do you measure a players effectiveness on defense?  It is almost impossible considering the statistics provided by the AHL.  In the NHL they track more stats which if combined/divided/multiplied can tell you a players effectiveness.

Plus/minus is a tough statistic to rely on because of the many factors that play into it.  But it is all we have right now.

Another way to gauge a defenseman's effectiveness is based on his offensive production.  So many blue-liners are asked to contribute more offensively now that they can rack up solid point totals.  Lawrence Nycholat averaged almost a point a game when he was actually able to play.

First up let's look at the Bears.  The following players are the guys I would expect to see as the top 6 entering the series.  Two huge questions with this list...1) if Sean Collins returns he absolutely makes this list and 2) I am not sure Nycholat will see much time with the veteran limit and all.

	Goals	Assists	Points	+/-
Brian Fahey	4	26	30	+22
Sheldon Souray	4	15	19	+10
Patrick McNeill	7	20	27	+7
Patrick Wellar	3	15	18	+1
Lawrence Nycholat	5	23	28	+15
Dmitry Orlov	2	7	9	-5

A solid group.  Admittedly I was surprised to see Orlov at -5 and Wellar at just a +1.  Dmitry has not been in the lineup against Charlotte this season.  Over the season series Fahey had 4 assists against the Checkers while Wellar was a -2.  The biggest surprise on the season series would be that Collins, who led the Bears with a +29 on the year, was a very poor -5 against Charlotte.

Now let's look at the Checkers top 6 based on my assumptions (which admittedly could be way off).

	Goals	Assists	Points	+/-
Bryan Rodney	9	38	47	-15
Michal Jordan	4	14	18	+13
Bobby Sanguinetti	3	12	15	0
Casey Borer	2	12	14	+7
Brett Bellemore	2	8	10	+8
Zack FitzGerald	0	8	8	-11

Not certain that those are the players we will see or not. But that is my best guess.  Outside of Rodney there isn't much offense there.  Although keep in mind that Sanguinetti only played in 31 games this season so he averaged about a half point per game.

As I mentioned before...measuring a defensemans worth is hard to do with statistics.  As a unit the Bears seemed to block a lot of shots but again the AHL does not provide us with enough statistics to make a true valuation.

Based on the overall performance of the defenses you would have to give the Bears the advantage here but that can definitely be neutralized by ill-timed penalties and unfortunate bounces.


OFFENSE:

In years past this was a no-brainer...the Bears were better and deeper.  This year that isn't necessarily the case.

On the season Hershey had 9 (if you count Kozek) double digit goal scorers and 6 players with 40+ points.  Charlotte, likewise, had 9 double digit goal scorers but they had 8 40+ point getters.

The big difference comes at the 20+ goal mark.  Hershey had only 4 while the Checkers had 6.  Not a huge difference but if you put three of those players on one line Hershey has only 1 left while the Checkers have 2 full lines of 20+ scorers.

Here are the top 7 forwards for the Bears as I see it.  That stats you see in parentheses are from the season series.

	Goals	Assists	Points	PP Goals
Keith Aucoin	18(2)	54(2)	72(4)	4
Brian Willsie	30(1)	38(4)	68(5)	14
Kyle Greentree	30(5)	33(1)	63(6)	13
Andrew Gordon	28(1)	29(2)	57(3)	14
Boyd Kane	24(2)	25(2)	49(4)	4
Steve Pinizzotto	17(0)	25(2)	42(2)	2
Mathieu Perreault	11(2)	24(1)	35(3)	0

The most troubling part of the Bears 7 is that they are much better at home than on the road.  For example, Aucoin had 44 points on home ice and only 28 on the road despite playing in 1 more road game.  Gordon, 11 points less.  Kane, 13.  Pinner, 10.  Willsie, 8.  Perry, 7.  Greentree is the only (of the top 7) Bears player to even get to even between road and home as he actually had 3 more road points then home points.

Does that mean anything?  It might mean that games 1 and 2 are as important as any in the series.  Or it might mean nothing.

The only reason it really concerns me is that the Checkers don't have the same problem.  I didn't calculate all 7 guys numbers but I did do 4 of them (sorry...ran out of time).  The only one that saw a drastically lower number on the road was Dalpe.  The rest of the guys I checked (Boychuk, Terry, and Micflikier) were either better on the road or just a couple points worse on the road.

Here are there numbers before analyzing more.

	Goals	Assists	Points	PP Goals
Zach Boychuk	22(0)	43(8)	65(8)	10
Chris Terry	34(5)	30(2)	64(7)	10
Jacob Micflikier	29(4)	32(3)	61(7)	12
Zac Dalpe	23(4)	34(4)	57(8)	7
Jon Matsumoto	20(0)	28(3)	48(3)	10
Drayson Bowman	12(1)	18(3)	30(4)	3
Oskar Osala	13(1)	29(3)	42(4)	2

So...what do you think?

Charlotte has some definite talent in their top 6.  They can score and they have some good balance.  Something Hershey said a lot last year.

Based on the seasons they had I would say that the Checkers actually have the edge in the discussion about offense.  Offensively they are the class of the league.

But after all that you need to keep one very important thing in mind...Charlotte hasn't seen a full Hershey team yet this season.  The closest Hershey came to having a full squad was the 1-0 win over Charlotte in Hershey on January 29.  Even in that game Hershey was missing Perry, Nycholat, and Orlov.

In fact the only other game against Charlotte that Gordon and Aucoin played in together was the first of the year on November 7.  They are arguably 2 of the best players in the league and one or the other missed 6 of the games against Charlotte this season.

When healthy I still contend that Hershey is as talented as any team in the AHL.

And they are healthy now.


Check back later today for my prediction...a hint...Bears will win. 

Like I would ever say anything else!!

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!

Bears vs Checkers....preview #1

 VS.

The playoffs are almost here.  The NHL playoffs start tonight and the Bears start up tomorrow!  Awesome.

After an 80 game preseason the real meaningful season is finally here.  A possibility of 28 games and 16 wins is all that stands in the way of the Calder Cup.

In 05-06 it was Norfolk in the first round.  In 08-09 it was Philadelphia.  Last year it was Bridgeport.

This year it is Charlotte.  In case anyone has forgotten...they were Albany last year.  Last April the Albany River Rats swept the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the 1st round of the AHL playoffs.

Then they ran into a buzz-saw in Hershey and were swept in the 2nd round of the AHL playoffs...the Division finals.

But don't think for a minute that Hershey dominated the series.  3 of the 4 games went to OT.  Goals were easy to come by for both teams.  Overall Hershey scored 21 in the 4 game series while the Rats scored 15.

After a summer move from Albany to Charlotte the new look Checkers have a very similar look to the old River Rats.

The 15 goals scored by the River Rats in the Hershey series last year were scored by 8 different players.  6 of those players are on this years team.  Those players are Drayson Bowman, Nick Dodge, Zac Dalpe, Oskar Osala, Chris Terry, and Zach Boychuk.

Last year 4 of those players were rookies...Bowman, Dalpe, Terry, and Boychuk.

This team is not to be taken lightly.  They are roughly the same team as last season with more experience.  That is a dangerous thing.



Let's take a glance at the teams from this past season.  I have looked through a bunch of the stats and found some that I think tell a little story.

Sure you can look at the one most important stat up until this point.  Hershey finished with 100 points this season....Charlotte managed 97.  So Hershey gets the higher seed and is therefore considered the odds on favorite to move on.

But after considering the overall season stats I would say...not so fast.

I was just on facebook and looked at the AHL fan page (find it here) and they have polls up for each and every series for people to vote on.  Over 50% of people think Hershey will win this series in 5 games.

Only about 20% actually think Charlotte will win at all.

I think people are overlooking how talented this Charlotte team is.

So...back to the comparison:

Let's start with some records....

	Bears	Checkers
Overall	46-26-3-5	44-27-2-7
Home	21-14-2-3	22-13-1-4
Road	25-12-1-2	22-14-1-3
Scoring 1st	38-6-2-5	32-6-1-2
Allowing 1st Goal	8-20-1-0	12-21-1-5
Leading After 1	28-2-1-4	24-3-1-0
Tied After 1	14-7-1-1	14-10-0-7
Trailing After 1	4-17-1-1	6-14-1-0
Leading After 2	32-0-1-3	31-2-1-2
Tied After 2	12-4-0-1	10-3-0-4
Trailing After 2	2-22-2-1	3-22-1-1
Outshooting Opp	25-18-0-3	24-15-1-0
Outshot by Opp	20-8-3-2	19-11-1-7

So what can we gather from these?  Well...the first goal is going to be very important but the most important stat will be who leads at the end of the 1st two periods.  Neither team loses very often when they have a lead at the end of a period.

One thing I do take from this is that Charlotte might have had the better season considering these numbers.  Obviously Hershey did better overall and on the road while the Checkers did better at home.

But when scoring 1st the numbers get a little more misleading.  Sure, Hershey had 38 wins when scoring first compared to Charlotte's 32.  Unfortunately with the additional games they scored first in they only won 74.2% of those games while Charlotte won 78% of their games when they scored first.

And when they give up the first goal Hershey is 2nd as well.  Charlotte won a little over 30% of their games when allowing the 1st goal...Hershey only won about 27%.

It definitely makes the first goal in these games a little more important...doesn't it?


Now let's take a look at the special teams...

	Bears	Checkers
Power Plays	365	381
PP Goals	66	80
Overall PP%	18.1	21.0
Home PP%	20.3	24.2
Road PP%	15.5	17.8
Times Shorthanded	393	340
PP Goals Allowed	66	56
Overall PK%	83.2	83.5
Home PK%	84.1	84.6
Road PK%	82.4	82.6

A couple of months ago Hershey was one of the premier teams in the AHL both on the power play and the penalty kill.  But by the end of the season they were not in the top 10 in either category.

Across the board Charlotte had a better season as far as special teams go.

The best news here...Hershey wasn't healthy much of the season.  When they were...they were exceptional on the power play and penalty kill.  Hopefully that returns.


Now some offensive numbers...

	Bears	Checkers
Goals Scored	255	265
Goals per game	3.19	3.31
Shots per game	30.2	32.6
Goal Diff (1st)	+20	+4
Goal Diff (2nd)	+3	+15
Goal Diff (3rd)	+21	+3
Shot Diff (1st)	+144	-50
Shot Diff (2nd)	+1	-17
Shot Diff (3rd)	+74	+56

Finally some good news in the overall comparison.  Hershey is much better in the 1st and 3rd periods than the teams they play against.  As luck would have it the Checkers aren't as good in those periods.

Obviously shot differential isn't a great stat to explain a teams abilities but I think it does offer an idea to how good a team is in their own zone.  Hershey keeps teams to the outside and they block a lot of shots.

That is obviously a good thing.


And finally a few defensive numbers...(not nearly as many relative stats here)

	Bears	Checkers
Goals Allowed	214	243
Goals Allowed per game	2.68	3.04
Shots Allowed per game	27.6	32.9

And this is where the Bears really made their mark this season.  When healthy they were as tough to score on as any team in the league.  For much of the season they led the league in goals allowed (or were in the top 2 or 3) but injuries on defense and in goal definitely took there toll down the stretch.


So what...if anything...do all these stats mean?

No one knows.  That's the best part of the playoffs.  No matter what you know (or think you know) about a team you never really know anything.

Records, stats, and other the other measurables mean less during playoff hockey then any other time or sport.  The best teams in the leagues during the regular season rarely win in the playoffs.

That makes it suspenseful and that makes it so great to watch.  Every minute you are on the edge of your seat hoping that your team can pull out the win.

During the regular season there are definitely moments when you feel that way.  But in the end it is basically 80 preseason games.

In the playoffs the emotion is the same whether it is game 1 or game 7 (ok maybe not but you get the point).  If you drop game 1 you are only 3 losses away from the ultimate end to your season.

Bears fans have been incredibly privileged the last 5 seasons.  We have seen 3 teams win the Calder Cup and another team come up just short in the finals.  4 out of 5 seasons Hershey has played hockey well into June.

Will it happen again?  I will let you know my feelings on Thursday.

For now I leave you with one final table of stats.  These are the head to head numbers between the teams this season.  We all know by now that Hershey and Charlotte split their 8 game season series 4-4.  You probably also know that each team went 2-2 at home and on the road.

So it was pretty much perfectly even...right?

Maybe not....you be the judge:

	Bears	Checkers
Goals For	21	25
Goals per game	2.6	3.1
Shots per game	32.9	30.5
PP Goals	6	7
Overall PP%	20.0	15.9
Overall PK%	84.1	80.0

Hmmm...sure the Checkers scored more but otherwise they weren't better at all when playing Hershey head to head.  Hershey had more shots, had a better power play, and had a better penalty kill.

Which stats are more important?  The overall season or the head to head?

We find out beginning Thursday.


Tomorrow morning I intend to have another preview up discussing the players that we will see playing for Hershey and Charlotte.  Check it out.