First Half Recap

The unofficial start to the second half is here.  The All-Star game was last night and while it was somewhat entertaining, it was in the end an exhibition game that doesn't matter. 

Today the push towards the playoffs begins in earnest.  Today, let's look back to see what has gone right so far.  And tomorrow we will look forward and some issues that could help or hinder the Bears overall quest.

The first half of the season saw a ton of callups to Washington and injuries to Bears.  Hershey was without each of the following players due to injury or recall for extended periods during the first half:

• Keith Aucoin
• Jay Beagle
• Mathieu Perreault
• Andrew Gordon
• Kyle Greentree
• Andrew Joudrey
• Brian Fahey
• Lawrence Nycholat
• Patrick McNeill
• Sheldon Souray
• Braden Holtby

That probably isn't a complete list but overall it seems daunting.  Many of those players have missed multiple games and many were out at the same time as other players.

Perreault and Beagle remain in Washington and for the foreseeable future they are likely to stay there.  More on that later on (tomorrow).

Despite all the roster uncertainties the Bears still had a good first half. 

They are currently 2nd in the Eastern Conference with 61 points.  That is 11 points behind the #1 team in the league, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.  The two play 5 times over the final 34 games so it is still possible that Hershey would win the division.  But in the end it doesn't matter where you finish the regular season!

Hershey is averaging 3.43 goals per game on the season.  That is good for 2nd in the league.  And it is better (barely) than the Baby Pens mark of 3.40 goals per game.  Portland leagues the lead with 3.46 goals per game.

On the defensive end, Hershey is allowing an average of 2.33 goals per game.  That ranks #1 in the AHL at this point.  Much of that can be attributed to the 15 goals allowed in the last 9 games.  Not a bad run.

The Bears rank in the top 10 in both Power Play (3rd) and Penalty Killing (10th). 

There are 4 Bears in the top 20 scorers, Gordon, Willsie, Aucoin, and Greentree.

2 of the top 11 goal scorers in the AHL are Bears, Gordon and Willsie.

Both Dany Sabourin and Holtby rank in the top 12 in goals against average, Dany in 12th, Braden is 2nd.

Braden ranks #2 in save percentage and is tied for 1st in shutouts as well, he has 5 of them.


The numbers show that Hershey is still a top team in the league.  With a little roster stability the Bears could and likely will contend in the playoffs. 

Let's hand out some mid-season awards....

Best Forward - 

 Keith Aucoin - he missed 17 games due to injury and/or recall yet he is 3rd on the team in points (43), first in assists (31), and ranks at the top of the league in points per game...a ridiculous 1.48 points per game. 

And he has been consistent as well.  (This amazes me more than anything else).  He has played in 29 games this season.  He has at least one point in 25 of those games.  He has failed to record a point in ONLY 4 games this season.  That is as consistent a scorer as you will likely see. 

12 goals, 31 assists, 43 points in 29 games.  14 multi-point games.  1.48 points per game.  3 separate streaks of 6+ games with a point, including a current streak of 8 games.


Best Defenseman - 

Lawrence Nycholat - he is averaging .86 points per game...he is a defenseman!  That .86 would be higher than the top guy for 11 AHL teams (minimum 10 games played).  And it would be in the top 3 or so defenseman in the league.

He was selected for the All-Star game and made an appearance last night but was not able to play due to injury.  He is 5th on the team in points (27) and assists (22) despite playing in only 31 games.  He also has 5 goals which is 2nd on the team by a defenseman, behind Zach Miscovic's 6.


MVP - 

Brian Willsie - he has played in 45 of Hershey's 46 games and has played each of the 3 offensive positions and plays the point on the power play. 

He had a slow December with only 7 points in 12 games (still not too bad) but has turned it on in January with 14 points (7 goals and 7 assists) in the 12 games this past month. 

He has been the one constant throughout the season.  He started the season as the first line left wing.  And then everything changed...

• While Coiner was out...Willsie filled in at first line center.  
• While Gordo was in Washington...Willsie filled in on the top line.  
• With Perry in Washington...he is playing 2nd line center most nights.  
• With Beags in Washington...he is killing penalties. 

He Does Everything!

45 games played, 19 goals (2nd on team and 11th in league), 25 assists (2nd on team), and 44 points (tied for 1st on team, 11th in the league).  12 power play goals leads the team and the league.  +23 rating leads the team and the league.

He has been everywhere and he does it all. 


It has been a good first half and I am confident that the second half will be even better. 

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!

*Tomorrow I will have a 2nd half preview including discussion about the NHL trade deadline, what players could be at risk for trades, and when we can expect the reinforcements from Washington...if ever.*

Bears at midseason

Hershey is on pace for all sorts of records including AHL records for wins, points, and winning percentage. Not too bad for a team that won the Calder Cup last year.

But all that winning means absolutely nothing when it comes to the playoffs. The team that owns most of those records didn't make it past the 2nd round of the playoffs. So maybe a little adversity is a good thing.

I doubt much adversity will be found from teams within the division this season. Currently the Bears are 16 points ahead of 2nd place Albany while 4 of the 7 division teams are either at .500 or below.

That is distinctly different from recent years where the East division dominated in not only the regular season but the playoffs as well. That will likely not be the case this season as the East is likely to only get 3 teams in the playoffs as the Atlantic division is positioned right now to get 5 teams in. Which means Hershey could be playing a team like Portland or Bridgeport in the first round come April.

The Bears are again one of the most balanced and talented offensive teams in the league. The difference between this years team and last years team is that the 09-10 Bears are great defensively as well.

We all remember the struggles during the season last year when Hershey was at the top in goals scored and power play success but at the bottom in goals allowed and penalty killing. But this year is different...while the same. Hershey is #1 in goals scored with 173, tied for #1 in goals allowed with 97, 1st in penalty killing, and 3rd in power play success.

Think about that for a minute....the Bears have a goal differential of 76. 76!! Last years club ended the season with a +56 goal differential. Who knows what this years club will finish with.

You want more?

The Bears 173 goals right now is 28 higher than the next closest team (Lowell has 145). The Bears have allowed only 3 more goals than the Phantoms have scored this entire season!

Hershey has won 6 games MORE than ANY OTHER TEAM in the AHL this season. And they haven't lost at home in 12 games. Which is a new franchise record...surprising huh?

This team is phenomenal. If you have the chance to see them play...TAKE IT! The likelihood of this team being together next season is highly unlikely. (although I did say that last year too)

One more great stat for you....

On the subject of getting the chance to see this team...I can see that many of you are. Hershey is again leading the league in attendance with 8,978 fans PER GAME. That is a full 1,418 MORE than second place Manitoba.

Of the other 28 teams in the AHL only 11 have averaged more than HALF of Hershey's average. Meaning only 11 teams in the AHL average more than 4,500 fans per game.

You should be very proud of those numbers. This will be the 4th straight season that Hershey will lead the league in attendance.

Very impressive indeed.

Enjoy the second half of the season!

What about the next 40?

Yesterday I looked at the first 40 games of the season and gave my midseason awards. This team is obviously talented and are obviously one of the best teams in the league. The fact that they have 28 wins in 40 games is remarkable and puts them on pace for 56 wins this season. That would be impressive and would break the previous record of 51 set in the 06-07 season.

Other records that are potentially breakable this season include the goals record which is currently 53. Alexandre Giroux has 28 which puts him on pace for 56 as well.

The most points for the team in one season. The record is 114 in 06-07. This team is on pace for 114 which would give them the tie.

Technically Keith Aucoin COULD challenge the records for assists and points but it is unlikely. The records stand at 125 points and 89 assists in a season. Currently Aucoin has 37 assists and 51 points. IF Giroux remains in Hershey for the entire second half then MAYBE Coiner would have a shot.

I think this goes without saying but this is a special Bears team. But there are things to watch for in 09 that will determine their success come spring.

1. Establish a number 1 goaltender.

This has been started by the team as Simeon Varlamov has been the main goaltender for the past month or so. Unfortunately he had a very rough start on Sunday which allows questions about his consistency to remain. Daren Machesney was playing very well prior to Saturday night when he also had a very rough go of it.

One of these 2 needs to step up and show consistency and leadership on the back end. If the players out front now they have a reliable goalie back there then they can focus more on the other team and scoring goals.

In the playoffs having a number 1 goaltender is critical. You can't be changing goalie's every game and then changing back when they have a bad game. At least that is my opinion. So hopefully one of the two guys here steps up and takes the position as his own.

2. Washington Capitals health.

Obviously this has been an important topic so far this season. Multiple Bears have seen time with the Caps and some remain on recall or are only a move away from heading to DC. There is nothing that can be done to prevent injuries but this is an important part of the team's success.

The other think to keep in mind is Karl Alzner. Currently he is with the Caps but when Tom Poti returns from injury Alzner is possibly the odd man out and could be back in Hershey. And also keep in mind that Brian Pothier is making progress and could get clearance to play this season. That would completely disrupt the salary cap situation and you could see a trade which could result in a Bear headed to DC permanently.

3. The Health of the Bears.

Certain players on this Bears team are somewhat injury prone like Dean Arsene. Other players are currently out with no timetable for return, Jay Beagle and Grant McNeill. What happens when those players return? Who becomes the scratches and who plays?

And on top of that it has become apparent that Alexandre Giroux is crucial to this teams success. The team can not afford to lose him or probably Keith Aucoin to injury. Without them the defense and goaltending would have to step up and prove their worth and win some games for the team.

4. Roster issues.

This category has to do with the return of McNeill and Beagle and potentially Alzner. If all those players return and the team stays healthy you have the problem of who to play and who to sit. The problem with sitting guys is that you lose certain things. And it can result in locker room turmoil.

Kip Brennan was just brought in to basically take over for McNeill. What happens when McNeill comes back? Is Brennan done for the year? Neither player will probably play much in the playoffs but the stretch run could be critical in this division.

Coach Woods is going to have to make some decisions if all the pieces fall into place. But sitting Beagle or Joudrey seems counter-productive with what this team needs. And sitting a guy like Laing too much is the same deal. But do you sit Gordon? or the rookies? There are no sure things right now but this teams chemistry could be disrupted if guys aren't playing.

5. Players need to step up at end of season and playoffs.

Traditionally in the playoffs teams are able to shut down a top scorer or two. It happens all the time in the NHL and happened for multiple seasons with the Chicago Wolves until last year.

Obviously the MAG line would be the targeted line of an opposing coach. Other players have to become more consistent and more productive. For a while this season the rookie line was scoring every game but they have since cooled off a lot! Chris Bourque and Andrew Gordon have not scored like they have in the past and have not been the most consistent in their careers. Kyle Wilson is the only other consistent scorer on this team and that won't be enough.

I am not saying these guys don't play hard or try every game. BUT the playoffs are a different time and these guys need to figure it out before than. We have seen what can happen when Giroux is either shut down or not there. Many times in those situations this team struggles to get on the board. If that happens in the playoffs it could be an earlier than expected golf season here in Hershey.

............................

All of these things are worth keeping an eye on but the fact remains that this team is good. I think if you ask anyone on the team or within the organization (as well as the fans) that they expect to win it all. Not saying they are over confident or unaware of the challenge but I would hope that they believe they can. Which to most of us then means anything short of a championship would be a disappointment.

Last season was tough. Having to watch the team get beaten down in the first round and have the summer come early. Personally....I don't want to see that again. I am hoping and expecting to be celebrating in Hershey in mid June!

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

40 Down....40 To Go

I didn't see last nights game in its entirety. When I turned it on it was 2-2 and within a couple minutes it was 4-2 and that is all I saw. So I am not going to critique the team or give a recap on something that I didn't see.

So instead let's take a look back and give out midseason awards:


MVP : Alexandre Giroux

There are multiple players that could be considered for this award including Keith Aucoin and Simeon Varlamov. But I feel like this is a different team with Giroux in the lineup. When he was up in Washington for the better part of a month the Bears struggled to consistently create offense. Since he has been back they have been much better and he is a big reason why.

Best Forward : Keith Aucoin

Aucoin has been producing the most points all season long and Giroux wouldn't have 28 goals if it wasn't for Coiner. The only reason he didn't get MVP is because he was inconsistent without Giroux in the lineup. But he leads the team in points with 51 so he is the best offensive player on the team.

Best Defenseman : Greg Amadio

I really just created this category so that I could include Amadio. He has been the leader of this team and especially the defense all season. He does not hold back and will block a shot with any part of his body including his head.

Best Rookie : Simeon Varlamov

There are obviously lots of choices for this award. Guys like Oskar Osala, Mathieu Perrault, and Francois Bouchard all deserve consideration. But without Varly this team might be fighting for a playoff spot instead of fighting for first.

Best Game : Season Opener, October 8 in Wilkes-Barre

Again there are numerous choices for this including the 2 9-0 games but I think this game set the tone for the season. For the most part this team is the same as it was then when they won 8-4. Struggles still exist on the penalty kill but when healthy the power play is very good. This game set the expectations for the season.

Game we'd like to forget : Jan 11 in Wilkes-Barre

I was originally going to say the game in Hamilton but I think this takes the cake. To go up to Wilkes-Barre after a loss and basically suck for 2 periods is unacceptable. This wasn't a hard fought game that another team outplayed Hershey it was a beat down from a lessor opponent. Hopefully these games change against the Pens soon.



Check back tomorrow as I will have a "what's ahead for 09" post.