Who will Hershey play in round 1?

Hershey's loss to Syracuse Tuesday night is really insignificant as far as first round opponents go. But with Norfolk's win over Wilkes Barre it really creates even more problems in determining the Bears first round opponent.

There are 4 possible matchups, Wilkes Barre, Norfolk, Lowell, or Bridgeport. With the remaining schedules I would say Norfolk has the toughest road, while the Pens probably have the easiest. Lowell and Bridgeport have tough schedules but they are manageable.

Let's take a look at the 4 possible matchups:

Norfolk Admirals

Currently sitting in 4th in the East with 82 points and 2 games to play. The remaining two games are in Norfolk against the Bears. While they are currently tied with Bridgeport for the final spot they have one fewer game than the Sound Tigers.

Sitting 4th in the East would usually be a good place to be but with the Atlantic having 8 teams the 5th place team from that division would make the playoffs. With 1 fewer game remaining than the other teams they will likely need to win both games to have a shot.

This season the Bears have dominated Norfolk. They are 7-1 against Norfolk and have outscored the Ads 34-20 in those 8 games with 2 games yet to play.

Offensively they have only one 20 game scorer (Brandon Bochenski would make 2 but he is in Tampa) and only 6 scorers even in double digits. Their top point producer, Ryan Craig, has a whopping 43 points. Not exactly an offensive juggernaut here.

Defensively and goaltending would appear to be somewhat weak as well. Although Jaroslav Janus does have solid numbers in net in his 13 games, 2.07 gaa and a .922 save percentage. But he is only 7-6 which means the offense just isn't producing enough.

Norfolk does not appear to be getting much help from Tampa Bay either. Bochenski would be a big addition but he does not appear on their clear day roster so I am unsure if he is even able to be sent down.

The Admirals would be a favorable matchup for the Bears in the first round but in order for that to happen Hershey likely has to lose their last 2 games to them AND get help from the Atlantic division.

Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins

Currently positioned as the 3 seed in the East division, but just one point ahead of Norfolk. 3 games remain for the Baby Pens, home for Albany Friday night, at Binghamton Saturday, and home for the Sens on Sunday.

Hershey and the Pens squared off 12 times this season with Hershey winning 10 of those games. Overall the Pens were outscored 48-29 in those 12 games.

While this years Pens aren't quite the offensive force of last years team they can still score goals. They have 3 20 goal scorers and 7 players with double digit goals. Dustin Jeffrey leads the team in goals and points with 23 and 70.

Neither of their goaltenders, John Curry or Brad Thiessen, have had good years. Neither is below 2.50 in goals against and Thiessen is barely above .900 in save percentage while Curry is actually below that mark.

Even if the Pittsburgh Penguins were to lose early in the playoffs there likely isn't much help coming down to Wilkes Barre. There are no players currently in Pittsburgh that appear on the Baby Pens clear day roster.

I would be surprised to see the Pens fall to 4th in the East. They would have to lose a couple games and then have to see the Bears fall twice to Norfolk. Can it happen? Sure. Will it happen? Not likely.

Bridgeport Sound Tigers

Last year the Bears and Tigers met many times while playing in the same division. This year the Tigers were moved to the Atlantic and Hershey only saw them twice. And those games weren't exactly competitive with the Bears winning both games, 9-2 and 6-3.

The Tigers currently sit in the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Tied in points with Norfolk (ahead in winning percentage) and 2 points behind Lowell for the 4th spot in the Atlantic. Hartford is 5 points back and while mathematically alive it isn't going to be a problem.

They are a deeper offensive team than Norfolk with 8 players on the active roster having double digit goals and 1 more player, Mark Flood, likely to return with 10 goals as well. Their top point producer is Greg Mauldin with 51 points. They have 4 players with more points than the leading point getter for Norfolk. But at the same time they are still tied for second fewest goals scored in the AHL this season.

There have been a few goaltenders through the roster this year for the Tigers but it will be either Scott Munroe or Nathan Lawson in the postseason and neither is overly wonderful. Both have goals against averages over 2.5.

Unlike Norfolk and Wilkes Barre though, the Sound Tigers are going to get at least 4 players back from the Islanders. 4 defensemen as well which should definitely help them out. Mark Flood, Dustin Kohn, Dylan Reese, and Andrew MacDonald are all on Bridgeport's clear day roster and all will surely be returning once the NHL regular season ends.

While the Bears dominated the 2 games against Bridgeport so far I would not be excited to see them in the first round considering the players returning from New York. Still though the Bears offensive firepower is probably too great for the goaltending it would make the situation a slight bit tenser.

Lowell Devils

Lowell is more than likely in the playoffs. They are 2 points ahead of Norfolk with a game in hand so barring a collapse in their final 3 games they will be in but it could still be as the 5th place Atlantic division team.

The Bears and Devils faced off twice this season with the Bears winning both games 5-2.

Their schedule is favorable but not easy. Starting Friday they host Lowell, then a trip to Portland on Saturday, and then they host Providence Sunday. Honestly if they win Friday they likely wrap up the 4 seed in the Atlantic division and will face the division winner in the first round.

Offensively they are the deepest of any Bears first round opponent there are 11 players with double digit goals. Their top point producer is Ben Walter with 20 goals and 53 points. He is second in goals and first in assists with 33. The problem with Lowell is the depth, with no true #1 scorer they have 10 players with at least 30 points. Compared to the Bears this is no depth at all but compared to the other potential opponents this is a higher number.

Mike McKenna is likely the #1 goaltender for the playoffs and while he hasn't been exceptional he has been steady and strong enough. He has gone 23-16-6 this season with a 2.42 goals against and a save percentage over .920.

Like Wilkes Barre, Lowell is unlikely to see help from the NHL for the playoffs. There are no players on their clear day roster currently in the NHL. In addition to that the NHL Devils aren't likely to be headed for a quick playoff exit.


Overall I would prefer to see Norfolk in the first round but unless the Bears lose their final 2 against them there is no chance of that happening. So considering that I would say Bridgeport is an okay opponent although the return of 4 defenseman is a concern.

Either way it will be interesting to see how the Bears perform in the postseason. This season has been very uneventful as far as the standings goes. Last year the division race came down to the final weekend, this year it was over in October.

Hershey has yet to face significant adversity and the playoffs always bring that. Luckily much of last season's team is still here so they should be able to pull from that experience and be ready to go.

2 meaningless games (for Hershey anyway) Friday and Saturday before the prep for Wednesday's first playoff game begins this weekend. A win Friday combined with a Wilkes Barre win and a Bridgeport win would eliminate the Pens and Admirals from first round consideration.

LET'S GO BEARS!!

Bears Drop to Second in Lowell

Well color me surprised! Okay maybe not so much. I hate that I was right but the Bears did not seem at all interested in playing in that game last night. I was unable to watch it live but just finished watching it this morning and I would have to say that the first 2 periods were some of the most boring hockey of the season. Neither team seemed to want to play the game. But Lowell wanted to win more than Hershey and they did 2-1. The loss slides the Bears back to second place as Bridgeport won last night to take the division lead.

I actually think the team played okay. I thought the defense was solid and the goaltending was okay. It was actually the offense that I thought needed to do more. Maybe more isn't the write idea since they did have 44 shots. Maybe better would be more accurate. Go back and watch the game again and count how many of the shots were from bad angles or with no traffic. Honestly I didn't think Lowell goalie Jeff Frazee played that well. Sure he made some big saves but he got lucky numerous times and the Bears allowed him to see every single shot.

The Bears offense played the same way they did for most of February, take as many shots as you can and don't worry about making them good ones. Quantity over quality seems to be this teams mantra on many an occasion. But guess what....it isn't working! Last weekend Hershey looked really good and I personally think the lines had a big effect on that.

With Chris Bourque expecting to get recalled he didn't play which left Woods in need of new line combinations. But I think he screwed up a bit. Last weekend I thought the Beagle, Osala, and Mink line was fantastic. I thought they played hard both nights and created numerous opportunities. Last night Perrault joined that line (with Mink and Osala) and I don't think they had any decent chances. I am not saying Perrault isn't worthy of that position but he would work better with Giroux or Gordon in my opinion.

Well we will see what happens tonight. Hopefully the loss will get the team fired up and they will come out swinging tonight against Portland.

If you are scoreboard watching tonight here are the games:

Bridgeport hosts Providence at 7:00
Wilkes Barre/Scranton travels to Norfolk for a 7:15 start

The Penguins lost last night in Philly while Bridgeport defeated Worcester 2-1. Not much offense in any of the games involving the division leaders as Bridgeport, Hershey, and Wilkes Barre combined for 4 goals and allowed a combined 5 as all three games ended 2-1. I can't imagine these teams won't score a lot more tonight to get back on track.


My Three Stars of the Game:

1. Jeff Frazee - 43 saves will earn you some recognition. Not great but definitely good enough.
2. Olivier Magnon - game winning goal on a rocket shot in the third
3. Jay Beagle - good hustle all night provided him a goal and many other chances

Grading the Performance:

• Offense - B - 44 shots but I would say many of them weren't worth taking. They hit a couple posts and missed a couple open nets but not a perfect game. Get traffic to the front and get the rebounds. Not a terrible game by any means but not quite enough either.
• Defense - B+ - I don't blame them for either goal honestly and I think they all played very well. Still some unnecessary chasing and offensive zone play but overall I think they have improved exponentially in the past couple weeks.
• Goaltending - B - I think Neuvy wants both goals back. The first was on a rebound where he ended up out of position (and unlike Varly he likes to be in position) while the second was just a rocket shot that beat the rookie. Still made some good saves and is definitely a calming influence in goal as he doesn't bounce around and get caught out of position much.
• Power Play - ? - Not very consistent when they did get the chances but with only 2 chances you can't really grade it.
• Penalty Kill - ? - There was only one Lowell power play all night so this unit wasn't out long. Although they did allow a goal on the one power play it was waved off.
• Overall - B - Not terrible. I think if one of the bounces goes their way this is a whole different game. Frazee got lucky on numerous occasions as he was left vulnerable by his defense and his own rebounds on more than one occasion but sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. If you are looking for someone to blame for this lose I think you have to look at the coach. The line combinations worked great last week......why change them now???

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

news and notes:

• Quintin Laing came back from injury to play for the Caps and will now miss the rest of the season with a new injury. Laing tore his spleen at some point in the game Thursday night and will miss the remainder of the season.
• Mike Green was also injured Thursday night so there could be a call up coming but no word of yet.
• Chris Bourque has been called up to Washington to replace Laing.
  
• The Capitals/Bears signed Trevor Bruess to an amateur tryout contract. Bruess played at Minnesota State the past 3 seasons and seems like a pretty good player. John Walton has a decent write up about him in last night's game preview that gives more detail on what kind of player he is. Check it out here.

Bears visit Lowell Devils tonight

After two HUGE wins last weekend the Bears are on the road for a 3 in 3 this weekend. Tonight they are in Lowell to play the Devils. And hopefully they can get excited about playing the 6th best team in the Atlantic division.

Lowell is having some offensive troubles lately. First of all they are basically 3-7 in their last 10 home games (that includes 3 SO losses). So they aren't playing well at home. And honestly they aren't playing well at all in their last 10 either home or away. They are 2-8 in their last 10 overall and have scored more than 2 goals only twice....and they won both games. In the 10 games they have scored a whopping 14 goals and have allowed 32. You won't win too many with that kind of discrepancy.

During this poor stretch the Devils have scored 1 goal or less in 7 of 10 including 5 games in a row with only 1 goal. They are falling fast in the standings and are 6 points out of the playoffs right now.

Hershey on the other hand is where they have been all season....in first place. They fell out of first for a weekend but played some of their best hockey of 2009 and won 2 games to get back into first.

Now the question is can they play their best hockey against teams that aren't chasing them in the standings. After tonight they play Portland and Manchester and they need to win all of them to guarantee a first place position after the weekend. They are ONLY 1 point ahead of both Bridgeport and Wilkes Barre. So which Bears team will show up? The one that beat Wilkes Barre and Bridgeport last weekend or the team that lost to last place Springfield.

I am telling you now....don't be surprised if they don't dominate tonight and come out flat. AND also don't worry if they do. Sure they should want to dominate but even I am not as excited about tonight's game so I am sure the players aren't either.


Some minor changes to the roster this week. Keith Aucoin was reassigned and will be ready to go tonight. Michal Neuvirth is (probably) the #1 goaltender right now and will start tonight. And Quintin Laing is healthy....but he is in Washington for now.


Hershey Bears
record ~ 42-18-1-6 91 points
standings ~ 1st in East Division
playoff positioning - 1 pt ahead of 1st
most recent game ~ 3-2 Win vs Bridgeport, 3/20
last 5 games ~ 3-1-0-1
road record ~ 18-9-1-3
goals for ~ 255
goals against ~205
power play ~ 18.8% (8th)
penalty kill ~ 79.2% (28th)


Lowell Devils
record ~ 29-30-2-6 66 points
standings ~ 6th in Atlantic Division
playoff positioning ~ 6 pts behind 4th
most recent game ~ 1-0 Loss @ Hartford, 3/18
last 5 games ~ 1-4-0-0
home record ~ 15-12-0-5
goals for ~ 184
goals against ~ 210
power play ~ 16.1% (19th)
penalty kill ~ 81.5% (21st)

last time teams met - Hershey won 4-2 in Hershey on December 20.

Players to watch:

Hershey:
G Michal Neuvirth (30)- He returns to the Hershey lineup after spending a few weeks backing up Jose Theodore in Washington. He will be the goalie Hershey leans on for the rest of the regular season (and maybe longer) so he needs to be sharp every game.
C Keith Aucoin (11) - Some players come back after a recall and don't play as effectively. Surely Woods will put him back on the top line so he has to be ready to play. Will Woods keep his lines changed or will the MAG line return?
LW Chris Bourque (17) - He is hitting his stride at the right time. He has points in 7 straight games and has 4 goals and 7 assists in those games. Can he continue to produce into the playoffs?

Devils:

RW Nicklas Bergfors (18) - He leads the team with 18 goals on the year and is one of the few players that has done anything in March. He has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games.
RW Jon DiSalvatore (14) - Team leader in points with 46 but he has struggled of late. He has only 1 goal and no assists in his last 10 games.
RW Matt Halischuk (28) - The rookie had an incredible February with 5 goals and 10 assists but in March he has only managed 1 goal.


LET'S GO BEARS!!!

Bears vs Devils Preview, 12/20

Hershey Bears
record ~ 20-7-0-1 41 points
standings ~ 1st in East Division
most recent game ~ 6-1 Loss @ Houston, 12/14
last 5 games ~ 3-2-0-0
home record ~ 11-2-0-0
goals for ~ 115
goals against ~75
power play ~ 17.1% (15th)
penalty kill ~ 81.9% (20th)


Lowell Devils
record ~ 11-12-1-3 26 points
standings ~ Last in Atlantic Division
most recent game ~ 5-2 Loss @ Philadelphia, 12/19
last 5 games ~ 0-4-0-1
road record ~ 6-5-1-1
goals for ~ 75
goals against ~ 85
power play ~ 13.8% (25th)
penalty kill ~ 81.3% (27th)

last time teams met - First meeting this season.

Players to watch:

Hershey:

LW Oskar Osala (36)- After missing the last 2 games due to a call up to Washington the Bears are excited to have his goal scoring back in the lineup.
RW Graham Mink (21) - He needs to get going again...he only has 1 point in his last 5 games. With Giroux still up and playing today Mink needs to help out the offense again.
LW Kip Brennan (39) - Just signed after leaving his team in Finland he gets to play his first game back in Hershey tonight.

Lowell:

RW Jon DiSalvatore (14) - Leading the Devils with 21 points on the season but he is in a slump right now with only 2 points in his last 9 games.
LW Alexander Vasyunov (9) - Leading the Devils with 8 goals on the season. He has no goals in the last 5 games which happen to be all losses.
LW Chad Wiseman (15) - The former Bear has 7 goals and 8 assists on the season. But like the rest of the team he is in a slump and has no points in 5 straight.


News and Notes:

• With the postponement of the game last night Simeon Varlamov will more than likely get the start in net tonight.
• Giroux remains in Washington and will play today against Philadelphia. Due to the roster freeze he and Sean Collins will remain in Washinton until at least the 27th.
• Lowell has lost 5 straight games and there aren't many goals being scored for this team right now, especially by their better players.
• When Lowell scores more than 3 goals they have only lost once this season. It seems that 4 goals for them is their magic number.
• The Bears currently have a 7 game win streak at home.
  

LET'S GO BEARS!!! MAKE IT 8 IN A ROW AT HOME!!!