Hershey Bears vs Worcester Sharks 2015 First Round Playoff Preview

I am hyped.  Not sure how everyone else feels but I truly believe this Bears team could make a long run.

I am nervous.  Not sure how everyone else feels, but I am terrified that the Bears could lose this first round series.

I can't remember having such opposite feelings about a team heading into the postseason.  The last team good enough to make a run was I believe the 2009-10 team.  And really there wasn't much doubt with them.  Surely not in the first 2 rounds.

But here is my concern with the Bears this season...

They were two distinct teams.  (And this Sharks team is pretty good...more on that later though.)

There was the team that went 28-8-2-1 from Christmas through March and there was the team that went 18-14-2-2 prior to December and in April.

Half the season they dominated.  Half the season they barely stayed above .500.

Two different teams.

So which one is real?


Well, to figure that out I looked at the schedule.  I don't have time to look at the rosters each game, but I can say this...

The schedules were pretty even.  39 games from Christmas through March and 37 the rest of the time.  15 games against playoff teams in both sections.

21 home games, 18 road games in the middle.  17 home and 20 road on the ends.

So pretty even.


Which means to me that you have to dig a bit deeper.

Anyone that follows the team closely understands that there are two differences between the Bears before Christmas and after...

1. Stanislav Galiev was FINALLY given a chance at a top 6 forward spot.
2. Jim O'Brien joined the team in early January.

Coincidentally, April saw Galiev earn a recall to Washington while O'Brien (as well as others) missed some games.


Honestly, that makes me feel a bit better about the Bears chances (I literally did that research AFTER writing the open).

So I believe that the real Bears are the team that played so well from Christmas to March.  The other versions just weren't a complete team yet.



But I am still a bit worried.  Philipp Grubauer remains on recall in Washington and it seems highly unlikely that he will return before game 3.

Pheonix Copley has been tremendous, and I for one feel extremely confident in him.  However, this is his first pro playoff experience.  Will he be ready?

Plus, Andre Burakovsky is in Washington and seems very unlikely to return to Hershey before the Caps are eliminated.  That isn't that big of a deal, he only played 13 games in Hershey anyhow so he was never a big part of the offense...but having him here sure was nice.

AND...this 2 games on the road to start business is crappy.  A loss in Game 1 and the entire series changes as the Bears would be in an almost must win going into Game 2.

And Worcester is a good team.  Both at home and on the road.  They went 19-16-2-1 on the road this year, just a touch behind Hershey's 20-15-2-1.

So while the Bears could conceivably lose games 1 and 2, I don't find it likely that they can win 3 straight in Hershey over the Sharks.

Which means...Game 1 is critical.




So what can we expect between these two teams?  Based on the season series...a VERY even series.  (Another reason I am concerned.)

The season series went Hershey's way with a 2-1-0-1 record.  But every single game was close.

The teams split the home and road games, each winning once in each building.

4 games, 20 goals scored.  10 for Hershey, 10 for Worcester.

Every single game was decided by 1 goal.  Only 1 game went into extra time with the most recent game on April 1 going to a shootout.

Two of the games were in November and the other 2 were in mid-March and April 1.  The Bears DID have a "complete" team for the most recent two.  And obviously they were a different team for the first two, as I discussed above.

Shots were decidedly in Worcesters favor (as expected) with 145-104.

Surprisingly, the 2 Hershey victories came when they were DISTINCTLY out-shot.  They were out-shot on November 22 38-20 and won 1-0 at home.  Then in Worcester on March 18 they were doubled up 46-23 and won 3-2.


So, if you are listening to the games tonight and tomorrow (as I will be) or watching on AHLLive ($9.99 a game...not paying that!), then expect to hear Scott Stuccio discussing the Worcester shot total a whole bunch.  "Copley makes the save" might be his most used line (hopefully).

For a 2/7 seed matchup, this is going to be tight.

While I do believe in our Bears as much as ever, I am also worried about this series.


My prediction though...Bears in 4.

What Should You Know About Worcester?

1.  They don't have any dominant players.  

Bryan Lerg is their top point producer with 41 points.  6 Bears have more.

They have 4 players with 16+ goals.  Hershey has 6.

So there isn't a particular player that I can say Hershey has to watch out for.

2.  They do have depth.

Hershey has 8 players with 10+ goals...Worcester has 10.

Hershey has 11 players with 20+ points...Worcester has 15.

Again, they don't have one or two guys that will dominate.  They are a good team from top to bottom.

3.  They don't take penalties.

They finished the season with only 809 penalty minutes, good for best in the league.

As a comparison, Hershey finished with 1507, 5th most in the league.  And only 1 playoff team had more, Syracuse.

Discipline is going to be key for both teams.  But Hershey will have to do their best to play a clean game as special teams often decide series and giving the Sharks too many power plays surely won't be good.

4.  Once they are done...the Worcester Sharks are done.

The Sharks are one of the teams moving west next season.  So Game 2 might be the final AHL game to be played in Worcester.

With that in mind, I would expect the fans to come out in droves and make it loud.

Although, they only drew 3,847 in 38 home games this season so maybe it will remain half empty.

5.  Their top goal scorers are:

LW - 18 - Micheal Haley  -   he had 18 goals, leading the team.
RW - 13 - Evan Trupp  -  he had 16 goals and 24 assists, finishing second on the team in both goals and points.
RW - 19 - Daniil Tarasov  -  he also had 16 goals.
RW - 28 - Jeremy Langlois - he also had 16 goals.

6.  Players to watch:

LW - 11 - Bryan Lerg  -  the veteran finished with a team leading 41 points and scored 2 goals against the Bears this year.
C - 50 - Chris Tierney  -  he was as dominant player as they had picking up 29 points (8 g, 21 a) in only 29 games.  He only played in 1 game against the Bears this season.

7.  Goaltending:

They had two goalies who seemed to split the games pretty evenly most of the year.  Aaron Dell got into 26 games while Troy Grosenick played 36.

Based on the recent usage and the numbers, I fully expect Dell to get the nod.

Dell went 15-8-2 with a 2.06 goals against average and a .927 save percentage on the year.  Those are mighty fine numbers.

He struggled of late though, losing his last 3 games while going 3-3-0 in April with a 2.62 gaa and .917 save percentage.

Dell played both games in Hershey this season allowing 3 goals on 38 shots and going 1-1-0.

8.  Cold Streak:

They come in having lost 5 of their last 6 games, which isn't the way you want to be headed.

However, keep in mind that this poor stretch is on the heels of an 8 game win streak that included a win over Hershey.




That's all I got.

Time for the games to start.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!!

If you want some more analysis you can check out the articles Tim Leone wrote.  Just head over to the Bears PennLive page to see them.

Bears CAN win this series

The 2009-10 version of the Hershey Bears were ridiculously good.  They dominated the regular season and then met little resistance on their way to the Calder Cup. 

Playing their best wasn't always necessary.  If they struggled out of the gate or had a mid game lull it didn't hurt them because they could easily make up for it.

Simply put...they didn't have to play their best hockey to win.

The 2012-13 version can't do that.  If they don't play their best hockey, they will lose.  Rarely this season did the Bears play a sub-par game and still come away with a win.  From time to time it happened, and bad starts were a regular occurrence, but it wasn't common.

So when you get the best team in the league, point wise at least, you can't have lackluster performances.


The 2010-11 and 2011-12 Bears teams played the same style of hockey as the 08-09 and 09-10 teams did.  But it didn't work as well because the personnel wasn't as good. 

Two first round exits the last two years and we Bears fans are itching for a long playoff run.  We were spoiled by the first 5 years of the Capitals affiliation (3 Cups, 1 2nd place) and we expect more. 

They don't raise Conference Championship banners in Hershey.  Or Division Championship.  When you play for the Bears or root for them, you want one thing...the Calder Cup.

Much of this season I said that considering the lackluster finishes the past 2 years maybe it was time for a more defensive system that is generally a better performing system in the playoffs.  The recent teams were built on speed and skill and didn't bring a lot of grit to the table...didn't have a lot of guys who would crash the net and get loose pucks and put them home. 

You know...the ugly goals.

So this season saw the development of a new system in the organization.  One that relies on solid play in the neutral zone and the Bears own zone and one that is designed to take advantage of opponent mistakes and capitalize on opportunities. 

The Capitals have bought in and are as hot as any team in the NHL (outside of Pittsburgh and Chicago anyway).  The Bears system is the same and it works just as well when they play it. 

This is a system that was designed in the 'ugly' (or boring) hockey capital of the world...New Jersey.  The Devils have been good for over a decade because their system is designed to win close games and get goals that require more effort than skill...although its also because of a certain hall of fame goalie.

That's what playoff hockey is all about.  It isn't about the flashy goals guys score all through out the regular season.  It's about the grinders picking up goals by crashing the net and getting the rebounds.  And goalies coming up huge for their teammates. 

Michael Neuvirth was a clutch playoff goalie.  You could always count on him to make a huge save when you needed it.  Philipp Grubauer has shown that same ability at times during the season.  He struggled a bit more late in the year, but he made huge saves with regularity.

I think the goalie part of the equation is there.  Defensively?  They are solid.  Sometimes they get caught in their own zone for a while, but so long as they keep the teams to the outside and don't let open guys stand in prime scoring locations they are fine.  Unfortunately, they do tend to wander from their positional responsibilities from time to time and that gets them in trouble.

But overall I think the defense is good enough to make a run.

So the goalie is in place and the defense is adequate.  What about the offense?

The moves made throughout the year have really changed how this team is built.  They went from a team of grinders to having some more guys that weren't afraid to go to the net and get shots. 

The question is, will this team take advantage of their chances when they get them?  When the team is clicking and playing their style they are good.  Just look at last Sunday...first period they came out shooting and scored a weak goal 16 seconds in.  They finished the period with 15 shots and 2 goals. 

When they had a look they were shooting and that leads to rebounds and deflections.  THAT IS HOW YOU SCORE IN PLAYOFF HOCKEY. 

Teams shut down the flashy scorers all the time.  Even in 09-10 the Texas Stars shut down Alexandre Giroux in the first two games. 

You have to be willing to go to the net and put pucks on goal. 

The problem for this years Bears team is when they don't play their game they don't shoot.  How many 2 on 1 or 3 on 1 opportunities did the Bears have this year where they passed it 1 (or 2) time too many and ended with no shot?  Or they hold and hold, waiting for the pass or shot to open up and then its too late?  Saw that happen on Sunday actually.

If you have an extra guy...put the puck on net and let the other guy crash for the rebound.  Nothing bad can come from it.  Even if he makes the save cleanly and smothers the rebound, you can still crash the net and disrupt his personal space. 

If they play the right way this Bears offense is good enough, and balanced enough, to make a long run in the playoffs. 

If they play the wrong way and pass on shots they will likely be golfing by the 2nd weekend in May.


My prediction...for this series...Bears in 4. 

Hershey HAS TO split the game in Providence tonight and Sunday.  If they don't then I honestly think they are done.  I won't stop rooting or believing, but if they come back from Providence down 2 games to none they would have to win 3 straight against a team that would be riding an 11 game winning streak and hasn't lost 3 in a row ALL SEASON. 

Tonight's game is as important as any.  If the Bears win they put all the pressure on the Bruins headed into game 2. 

Hershey needs to come out ready to play.  They have been in playoff mode for the past couple weeks and have won 3 of their last 4.  They need to make that 4 of 5.

Bears in 4.  Enjoy the games. 

Faceoff tonight is at 7:05...check it out on AHL Live or the radio.  I will have Stuccio's call on my phone through the Bears app.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!

3 WINS TO ADVANCE.

Let's Look at Bruins vs Bears

What do we make of the Bears first round series?  Obviously a 1 vs 8 matchup makes it look like one team is drastically better than the other, but in the AHL that doesn't necessarily mean anything.

The Bears played in the East Division which featured no bad teams.  Norfolk, the worst of the 5, finished just 2 points out of the playoffs with 79.  Hershey played 34 of their 76 games against the East.

The Bruins played in the Atlantic, which included 2 teams that finished well out of the playoffs, Worcester and St. Johns.  The Bruins played 38 of their 76 games against the Atlantic.

And that there is why you can't necessarily worry about playoff seeds.  Teams don't play balanced schedules.  The Bruins played Worcester 12 times.  The Bears played Wilkes-Barre 12 times.  Worcester finished 13th in the East, the Baby Pens finished 5th.  

So don't worry too much about anything that has happened up until this point stat wise.  Unfortunately that's the best way to compare the two teams outside of an extended regular season series.  So the rest of this post is going to feature lots of stats and team comparisons.  Some may end up being relevant, but others won't be.

Fact is, the Bears need 3 wins in their next 5 games to advance.  Simple as that.

So....a look at the Bears/Bruins first round series:  (If you don't care about stats or don't want to read a bunch of them...I would probably just skip to the bottom.  It gets a little numbery from here on.)

Season Matchups:

The Hershey Bears and Providence Bruins faced off twice during the regular season with each team winning on home ice 3-2.

Both games saw the Bruins jump out to 2-0 leads before Hershey rallied to tie it.  At Giant Center on March 30 the Bears managed to get the game winner in the 3rd period.  And on April 12 at Dunkin Donuts Center the Bruins put an end to Hershey's comeback with their own goal in the 3rd.

The good for each team....Bruins leading scorer Jamie Tardif scored 3 goals in the 2 games while Hershey's Ryan Potulny and Nicholas Deschamps each tallied twice in the series.

The bad....Bears defenseman Cameron Schilling was on the ice for 4 of the Bruins 5 goals and Bruins defenseman Colby Cohen was on the ice for 4 of the Bears 5 goals.

Neither team got their power play going in those games with the Bears going a combined 1 for 8 and Providence 1 for 3.

Providence out shot the Bears both games 39-26 and 27-26 and in 4 of 6 periods.  Surprisingly the Bears won the game where they were out shot worse and Providence won all 3 periods in that game when it came to shots.

What to make of this?  Who knows.  It's a very small sample size so it's hard to know if it means anything.

Goalies:

The most important position on the ice in any game takes on even more meaning in the playoffs.  Teams can ride hot goaltenders the whole way to a championship if things go right.  See Price, Carey...2007.

Both the Bears and Bruins are going to roll out rookie netminders as their #1's in this series.

Providence's Niklas Svedberg went 37-8-2 on the year with 4 shutouts.  He had a 2.17 goals against average and a .925 save percentage to go with it.

Hershey's Philipp Grubauer went 15-9-2 with 2 shutouts.  He had a 2.25 goals against average and a .917 save percentage.

Those numbers are very similar.  Svedberg got better goal support from his team so his record is better, but the goalie measurables are very close.

Now the bad news Bears fans....Svedberg is 12-1 in March and April and has only had a per game goals against average over 3.00 1 time and a per game save percentage under .923 1 time in that stretch.

The good news...that 1 loss and the gaa over 3 and save percentage under .923 came against the Bears at Giant Center on the 30th of March.

Scoring:

Balanced is the word of the day for the Bears.  They feature 11 skaters with double digit goals and none with  20 or more.  7 of those players have between 15 and 19 goals.

Balance is good in the playoffs as top lines are routinely shut down as space is harder to come by and defenses are ready to go.

The Bruins have balance as well with 10 double digit scorers, but only 3 of their players have more than 13 and 2 have 25+.

Obviously having the go to scorers is a good thing, but only if they are scoring.

Jamie Tardif leads the Bruins in goals with 30 but in his last 18 games (all of March and April) he has only tallied 4 goals.  Unfortunately 3 of those came against the Bears.

The Bruins 2nd leading scorer, Craig Cunningham, has 25 goals.  2 in the last 3 games, but not a single point in the 7 games prior to that.

So their go-to scorers aren't scoring a lot of late.

The Bruins are riding a 9 game winning streak so obviously they are getting scoring somewhere, but Hershey's balance can rival anyone's.

Hard to say if balance or go-to guys are better in the playoffs.  You have to have some balance, which both teams do, but having that one guy to look to to get a late goal is also nice.  Hershey doesn't have that.

Special Teams:

Another stat that is hard to really gauge.  No matter how you look at it, the Bruins are better...statistically...then the Bears.

League rank the Bruins power play is 8th, Bears is 11th.  Bruins penalty kill is 5th, Bears 10th.

Seems close.

Actual numbers...Bruins power play converts 18.5% of the time.  Bears, 18%.  Half a percentage point.  Not much.

Bruins penalty kill is successful 85.7% of the the time.  The Bears...84.2%.  A little larger difference, but still close.

And as mentioned above, neither team did much in the 2 games against each other.  Bears went 1 for 8 and Bruins 1 for 3.

Miscellaneous Records:

The Bruins scored 1st 48 times during the regular season...they went 37-8-0-3 in those games.  That was one of the top records in the league.

The Bears scored 1st 43 times and went 27-11-2-3.  One of the worst records in the league.

When leading after 1 the Bruins are 29-3-0-1 and the Bears are 20-4-0-2.

Leading after 2...Bruins are 32-1-0-1...Bears 25-1-2-2.

Tied after 1, Bruins are 16-11-0-3 and Bears are 12-9-3-2.

Tied after 2 the Bruins are 14-7-0-4 and the Bears are 10-6-1-2.

All of those records are relatively close.  Again, when looking at records it is hard because the level of competition is NOT the same.

Goals For and Against:

Overall the Bruins averaged 2.92 goals scored per game and 2.41 goals against.

The Bears scored 2.68 goals per game and allowed 2.58.

Eh.  Just tells me that the Bears are used to close games and are ready for playoff hockey.

BUT...the following numbers I think do tell a story.

The Bruins outscored their opponents in the first period by 31 goals.

The Bears....6 goals.

The Bruins start fast and in many games, that holds up for them.

In the final 2 periods the Bruins outscored their opponents by 2 goals.  The Bears...4 goals.

This just tells me that the Bruins start better than other teams, but don't have the killer instinct (or experience) in closing them out.


Overall Conclusion:

As I said above, regular season stats mean little.  All we really know about these teams is what we have seen and what they did against each other.

Any Bears fan knows that this team is great when they play together and shoot and below average when they don't.  Their problem is consistency.  One period they are great...see 1st period, this past Sunday.  The next period they are terrible....see 2nd period, this past Sunday.

I can't necessarily speak on the Bruins but it seems to me that a team that finishes #1 in the league would be due to better consistency.

My honest opinion...the Bears best is just as good as the Bruins best.  They just have a harder time finding it.

The wild card in this entire series will be experience.  The Bruins roster features 10 players who get regular minutes who are identified by the AHL as rookies.

The Bears...2.

We all know the Bears are old.  They have veterans up and down the lineup that understand what it takes to win in the postseason.

Will that help them in the playoffs?  Tim Leone doesn't think so.  He has the Bears losing in 5 and says the best they can do is the Eastern Conference Finals.

Is that a fair pick?  Absolutely.  But as an optimist and Bears fan I would like to believe they can go further.

The Bears season stats and record are deceiving because this team is DRASTICALLY different now compared to early in the year.  Zach Hamill, Garrett Stafford, Mathieau Beaudoin, and Kevin Marshall are gone.  In their place are players like Casey Wellman, Chey Genoway, Peter LeBlanc, Nicholas Deschamps, Nate Schmidt, Michael Latta, and Dane Byers.

I would take any of those upgrades any day of the week.

I will believe in the Bears until their final game.  I legitimately believe that that day could come in mid-June.  But I wouldn't be surprised if it came next weekend.

The Bears are in the playoffs.  Anything can happen now.

Just ask Ryan Potulny.  Two years ago he played for the Eastern Conference's 7th seeded Binghamton Senators.  They did ok.  Winning a Calder Cup and everything.

Series starts tomorrow night.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!!!!

Playoffs

It came down to the last game, but the Bears clinched a playoff berth for the 8th straight season and every year of the Capitals affiliation.

Granted the Manchester Monarchs were a little sluggish after clinching their playoff berth the previous night and resting their leading scorer and starting goalie, but Hershey came out last night and dominated the game.

Boyd Kane, when talking about Providence, said this:

“They've got a really good team there. But I think with our team right now, if we play our game, I think we can hang with anybody.”

I don't disagree with him one bit.  If the Bears play the way they did in the 1st and 3rd periods last night they can hang with anyone.

If they play like they did the rest of the past couple weekends...well, that wouldn't be as good.

Hershey can hang their hat on the fact that they won 3 of their last 4 to get in.

And that's what's great about statistics.  You can pick and choose and make them fit your argument.  For example:

In their final 3 weekends the Bears went 4-5, including two weekends of 1-2 hockey when they were fighting for the playoffs.

One stat shows the good, the other shows the bad.  Which one is a true indicator of where this team is right now...we don't know.  That's why they play the game.

Coach French said this:

“The last two weeks have been emotionally like we've been in the playoffs. It's been up and down, but we finished on an up and get to participate in the playoffs.”

Again, you can read that two ways.

The positive way:  The Bears are ready to go after being in do-or-die games over the past couple of weekends.  They are in playoff form mentally and will be ready to go next weekend.

Or the negative way:  The Bears, while knowing they needed wins to get into the playoffs, went through two 1-2 weekends, including a 4 game losing streak.


As you can see, I am not sure which team to expect come Friday night in Providence.  On one hand I am certain this team has the talent to win.  I know there are lots of you who doubt this, but I think last night showed that when they want to and when they are focused on shooting the puck, this team can hang with anyone.

But on the other hand I question whether or not they have the mental toughness to keep on their game and play like they need to.  They seem quick to bail on their fundamentals and 'system' when things go badly and can allow teams to dictate play.

Last night, despite playing very well for long stretches, they still experienced a couple instances where they were stuck in their own zone for multiple minutes.  You do that with a shortened bench, which we will surely see in the playoffs, against teams as good as Providence and it won't be a long playoff schedule for the Bears.


Best part of the playoffs though...records are reset to 0 and nothing before that first game matters anymore.  Hershey just finished their 76th game of the season and all it gave them was the chance they wanted all along...a shot to win the championship.

Can they do it?

I believe.  Doesn't mean that I expect it, but I can assure you that I will be disappointed when it is over...unless it ends with a celebration in June.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears face elimination

A lot of times in sports you see teams fighting for the playoffs make unexpected runs in the postseason after barely getting into the playoffs.  Generally, you always hear the team say its because they have basically been playing in playoff like games for a while, just to get into the playoffs.

And it makes sense.

But none of the teams currently still alive for a playoff spot in the AHL's Eastern Conference can make that claim.  The Bears have gone a combined 3-5-0-0 in their last eight, winning one out of three the past two weekends and only one so far this one.

Last night Hershey actually could have clinched a playoff spot by winning.  Instead they dropped a 4-2 game to the 4th place Binghamton Senators.

Fortunately for the Bears neither of the other teams want in either.  Connecticut entered the weekend with 2 games and owning the main tiebreaker over both Norfolk and Hershey.  As it turns out they only needed one win.  Instead they lost both to go along with the previous 4.  6 straight loses have come after an 8-2 run.

But they still have a shot.  If both Hershey and Norfolk lose today...the Whale get the 8 seed.

Norfolk was playing some good hockey until this weekend.  They had won 8 of 10 entering last Sunday's game against Providence and looked to be the team to beat amongst the 4 teams fighting for two spots entering the weekend.

Back to back loses to Syracuse and Albany, and just 1 goal scored in the two games, leaves them in a world of hurt as they make the trip to Providence to play the AHL's best and hottest team as they have locked up the #1 overall seed and have won 8 straight games.

Norfolk can still get it in with a win and a Hershey loss or an overtime/shootout loss accompanied by a Bears regulation loss.

Now we come to our Hershey Bears.

It's quite simple really.  Win and your in, lose and your done.  The only way the Bears can lose and get in is if its in overtime or a shootout and even then they would need Norfolk to lose too.

The good news here is that Hershey doesn't NEED help.  If they take care of business against a surging Manchester team they will be playing next weekend.

As a player it has to be nice to have something so cut and dry.  Win...in.  Done.

The bad news is the Bears get Manchester.  I mean, it could be worse, they could be playing Providence, but the Monarchs are the AHL's second hottest team having won 6 in a row.  That includes a 4-3 win over Hershey last Saturday night.

The Bears and Monarchs have played 3 times so far with the Monarchs winning 2, both in Manchester.  The lone Hershey win was back in February at Giant Center by a score of 2-1.

On March 23 the Bears jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first 25 minutes only to see the Monarchs score 5 straight in the next 30 minutes of play before finishing up at 6-4. 

Last Saturday looked like it might go the other way as the Bears let Manchester jump out to a 3-0 lead in the first 10 minutes before scoring a couple in the second on their way to a 4-3 loss.

If the Bears can manage to win their 36th game of the season, they will make the playoffs.

If they can't, then they will have finished the season on a 3-6 stretch that saw 3 consecutive 1-2 weekends.

Not the way I would want it to end, that's for sure.

It's going to be a sold out Giant Center tonight and is surely going to be loud.  Norfolk plays at 3 so before the 2nd period Hershey should at least know that outcome, but it really doesn't matter.

Without a win, the Bears are likely done.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears can clinch tonight!!

That went well.

The Bears pulled out a 2-1 win against the Phantoms and the Connecticut Whale and Norfolk Admirals lost. 

When the games started yesterday the Admirals were in 7th, the Whale were 8th, Manchester was 9th, and Hershey was 10th. 

When the games start today the Monarchs will be in 7th, the Bears in 8th, the Admirals in 9th, and the Whale in 10th.

And depending on what happens tonight you could be looking at any number of scenarios.  Including the possibility that Hershey locks up a playoff spot tonight in Binghamton.

For that to happen the Bears need a win and then a Norfolk regulation loss and Connecticut loss (in any form).  That would put the Bears ahead for good as they would then win any tiebreaker. 

If either Connecticut or Norfolk win, then it will all come down to Sunday. 

Good news for Hershey is that they just need to win.  If they win their last 2 they will make the playoffs as the 7th seed. 

Simple.

No matter what though, tomorrow will mean something.  Even if Manchester and Hershey both clinch tonight the game will still have seeding implications. 

But if Hershey were to lose tonight, they would still be alive heading into tomorrow night no matter what.  At least by my math.  The Bears can NOT be eliminated from playoff contention tonight.

Although they can make it harder on themselves.

Win in Binghamton and things are looking damn good for playoff hockey at Giant Center this spring.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

73 down, 3 to go

3 games remain on the Hershey schedule. 

After 73 games the Bears are an unspectacular 34-30-3-6 (77 points).  Some might classify that as being above .500, but to me they are actually 34-39 since the last 2 numbers are still losses, they just come at a different time.

But all of that is meaningless right now. 

3 games.  Win those 3 games and chances are pretty solid that the Bears would make the playoffs. 

Lose 1 and chances are they are done. 

Really is quite that simple.

Let's see what Hershey needs to do to pass each team ahead of them in the standings that hasn't clinched a playoff spot.

Portland Pirates - 6th place - 83 points - 34 ROW - 3 games to play

Hershey can't pass them.  The first tiebreaker, whether it be 2 or 3 teams is number of wins minus shootout wins...or Regulation Wins + Overtime Wins (ROW).  Hershey currently has 30 ROW.  If they won all 3 games in regulation they would have 83 points, which is good enough to tie Portland, but only 33 ROW. 

Norfolk Admirals - 7th place - 79 points - 30 ROW - 3 games to play

This is the most complicated of the scenarios.  Norfolk has to lose at least one game.  If they lose 1 and Hershey wins all 3 the teams would be tied with 83 points.  But, assuming Hershey wins their games in regulation or overtime, the Bears would finish with more ROW. 

If Norfolk doesn't lose (they play at Syracuse, at Albany, and at Providence) then Hershey can't pass them.  And if they lose twice, Hershey only has to win 2 to tie them. 

Connecticut Whale - 8th place - 79 points - 33 ROW - 2 games to play

Because they only have 2 games to play this seems like the Bears best bet to make the playoffs.  But I think Norfolk is the more likely chance.  IF Connecticut wins their last 2 and Hershey wins their 3 then the teams would be tied.  BUT, unless the Whale wins both of their games in a shootout, Hershey can't even tie them in ROW.  Meaning that Connecticut would be in the playoffs and Hershey wouldn't.

The Whale plays Friday at Albany and Saturday at Portland.  Both tough, yet winnable games.  If Hershey hopes to pass the Whale then Connecticut has to lose at least 1. 

Manchester Monarchs - 9th place - 77 points - 33 ROW - 3 games to play

Obviously beating the Monarchs in the standings is only the first step to the playoffs since that would only get the Bears to 9th, but it is still a team that stands between Hershey and the postseason.

Luckily, the Bears and Monarchs play Sunday evening at Giant Center.  And it could mean everything...or nothing.

Let's assume that Manchester wins at Binghamton and at Wilkes-Barre on Friday and Saturday night.  And let's assume that Hershey beats Adirondack and Binghamton in their Friday/Saturday road trip.  That would leave both Hershey and Manchester with 81 points heading into Sunday. 

NOW, let's assume that Norfolk loses Friday (very possible)...then the winner of the Bears/Monarchs game would likely get the 8 seed while the loser goes home. 

There is a chance that both teams could get into the playoffs but that is complicated and brings in lots of what-ifs.


The easiest path to the playoffs for Hershey is through Norfolk.  The Admirals have 2 very tough games this weekend, at Syracuse and at Providence.  If they lose one (or both) the Bears chances get much better. 

Connecticut's weekend games are both easier and they would hold the tiebreaker over Hershey. 


No matter what the uncertainty heading into the weekend, there is one thing no one can dispute.

The Bears have to win to get in.  Another 2 points out of 6 weekend will not be enough.  They still have a chance, and a damn good one, but they have to show up in each and every game in this final 3 in 3 weekend of the season. 

Can they do it?  We shall see.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Another 1-2 Weekend

Last weekend the Bears earned 2 points out of a possible 6, but still controlled their own playoff 'destiny'.

This weekend the Bears earned 2 points out of a possible 6 and now need help (from at least 2 teams) just to make it as the 8th seed in the playoffs.

Friday night in Providence, the Bears fell behind 2-0 early in the 2nd period before coming back and tying it up 8 minutes into the 3rd period before giving up the game winning goal just 4 minutes later and falling 3-2.

Saturday night in Manchester, the Bears fell behind 3-0 in the first 10 minutes of the game before making it a game with 2 goals in the first 7 minutes of the game.  The Monarchs scored the next goal and Hershey scored their 3rd and final goal with 5 minutes to go in the 2nd.  Manchester won 4-3.

So last Friday the Bears won in Syracuse.  Then Hershey, at a time when they are fighting for their playoff lives, lost 4 straight.  During that stretch the Bears went a whopping 1 for 17 on the power play. 

1 goal on 17 opportunities when they had more guys on the ice then the other team.

Wonder why they lost.

Well, maybe Sunday was the turnaround game. 

In Portland yesterday the Bears were awarded 10 power plays...they scored on 5 of them.  And what do you know, they won...6-3.

Hershey put an end to their skid and picked up a much needed win.

And things outside of their control were positive yesterday as well.  Norfolk and Connecticut lost to keep them at 79 points on the season.  They currently possess the 7th and 8th seeds in the playoffs.

The Manchester Monarchs are tied with the Bears for 9/10 but hold the tiebreaker as of now.

So, how can the Bears make the playoffs...

1.  Win all their games.  That would give the Bears 83 points, which MIGHT be good enough.

After that there are hundreds of possibilities.  Technically the Bears could still finish as high as 6th as Portland (like Hershey has already done) is trying to play their way out of the playoffs with a 4 game losing streak.

The Bears need to win.  If they do that they will jump Manchester as the two teams meet in the season finale in Hershey on Sunday.  They also need either Norfolk or Connecticut to lose.  Honestly, it is simpler if Norfolk loses.  If Hershey wins out and Norfolk loses just 1 game the Bears would win the tiebreaker and earn the playoff spot.  If Hershey ends up tied with Manchester, Connecticut, or Portland, they lose the tiebreaker.

So, as I said before...the Bears need to win all of their games and get help. 

Friday sees a visit to Adirondack to face the Eastern Conference cellar dwellers.  BUT, they are playing better than Hershey in their last 10 with a 5-3-1-1 record (compared to Hershey's 4-6-0-0) so it will not be an easy win.

Saturday sees the Bears visit the Binghamton Senators.  The Senators will still be in a battle for the East Division crown so this will also be a battle.  The Sens are 4-4-0-2 in their last 10 so they aren't exactly lighting the league on fire right now.

Sunday sees the final regular season game (and home game) for the Bears as the Manchester Monarchs arrive in town.  This game is either going to mean everything...or nothing.  The Monarchs just beat the Bears on Saturday and are on a 4 game winning streak and are 6-4-0-0 in their last 10. 

Those games will be tough enough.

And then the Bears would need help.  The good news there is that the teams tied or ahead of the Bears also have tough slates.

Portland has 4 games left beginning tomorrow night in Bridgeport.  IF they win that game they can't fall behind Hershey.  We can look at the rest of their games once that one is complete.

Norfolk has 3 games left, all on the road.  Friday in Syracuse, Saturday in Albany, and Sunday in Providence.  If they go 3-0 they get a playoff spot. 

Connecticut only has 2 games left...both on the road.  Friday in Albany and Saturday in Portland.  They will more than likely be sweating on Sunday.

Manchester has 3 games left, all on the road and very tough.  Friday in Binghamton, Saturday in Wilkes-Barre, and Sunday in Hershey. 


The Bears have made it interesting.  I, for some reason, still believe that all they need is a chance.  I am an eternal optimist and will always believe it is possible until it's officially over.  So if they make it as an 8 seed I truly believe they have a good shot to win the Cup. 

Friday night is huge.  A Bears loss probably means that tee times can be booked and exit interviews can be completed.  A win and who knows...it's out of their hands.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!! 

2 out of 6 ain't good

Apparently the 2012-13 version of the Hershey Bears is determined to make sure we get to see meaningful hockey games until the very last game of the regular season.  After earning a paltry 2 points out of a possible 6 the Bears now find themselves in a 'must win' situation every single night.

Friday night started out well with Hershey picking up a 4-1 win over Syracuse.  They followed that up with a 2-1 loss on home ice to the same undermanned Crunch team on Saturday night.  And then they gave the Baby Pens 4 straight goals Sunday afternoon before making a game of it late, falling 4-3. 

Not good.  Simple as that. 

A look at the AHL standings today shows that this is pretty much a 2 horse race now.  Wilkes-Barre and Portland are all but out of the equation with 84 and 81 points, respectively.  Connecticut, and the 7th spot, is still technically within reach, but even that is looking bleak. 

The Bears have 75 points.  So do the Norfolk Admirals.  Both teams have played 70 games. 

Hershey owns the tiebreaker...apparently.  (Not sure what that tiebreaker is, but it might be ROW - regulation + overtime wins...or...wins - shootout wins.  In which case Hershey has 29 ROW and Norfolk has 28.)

The only good news on the weekend was that the teams trailing Hershey, with the exception of Norfolk, all fell even further behind.  Manchester, Bridgeport, and Albany are all sitting with 71 points and 70 games played.  Translation...they need lots of help from BOTH Hershey and Norfolk.

Hershey tried to help them all this past weekend, but they were unable to capitalize. 

So, as I said...it's a two horse race between the Bears and Norfolk.

And Hershey has no room for error anymore.  Which is a problem considering that 5 of their last 6 games are on the road. 

Away from Giant Center this season the Bears are actually a respectable 16-13-0-4 compared to just 17-15-3-2 at home.  One could make the argument, looking at the records, that the Bears are actually better on the road then at home. 

Offensively you would still be right too.  On the season, the Bears have scored 2.8 goals per game on the road and only 2.5 at home.  Defensively then its about a wash with 2.8 goals per game allowed and 2.4 at home. 

So things aren't too bad...right?

Well...let's see...

• Since January 1 the Bears have played 19 road games.  They are 7-8-0-4 in those.  Not terrible.
• Since February 1 the Bears have played 15 road games.  They are 5-7-0-3 since Feb 1.  Eh...worse, but still not terrible.
• Since March 2 the Bears have played 8 road games.  They are 2-5-0-1 in those.  There it is...terrible.

Wait...it gets worse:

In those 8 games since March 2 the Bears have scored 2.8 goals per game.  Excellent...right on target.  They have allowed...3.6 goals per game.  And that includes the 2 wins when they gave up a total of 2 games.  In their 6 losses (yes a shootout loss is still a loss) they have allowed an very very bad 4.5 goals per game.

Now, that schedule again...5 of 6 on the road. 

Ouch.

Well, maybe the teams they are playing aren't that good on home ice.  Hmmm, let's see...

• Providence, Friday's opponent, is 22-9-0-3.  Ouch, that's a good record. 
• Manchester, Saturday's host, is 16-14-2-3.  Eh, things are looking better for Hershey.
• Portland, Sunday's opponent, is 22-10-2-1.  And it's shitty again.
• Adirondack, next Friday, is 16-14-1-2.  Not terrible for Hershey.
• Binghamton, next Saturday, is 23-8-1-3.  DAMN.

Ok.  Now, does that mean the Bears can't or won't make the playoffs.  No, I refuse to believe that.  I look at this team and see talent.  Maybe I am the only one, but I think the team that Yingst has assembled can win against most teams in this league. 

So just cause the road ahead looks bad, I still think Hershey can win all 6 of their remaining games and make it in and then go on a run and win a Cup.  That's what I will think and root for until they prove me wrong (which they are currently working on).

Alright.  Enough doom and gloom.  How about some good news.

The Norfolk Admirals finish the season with 6 straight road games.  And they are NOT a good road team.  They are 13-17-1-1 on the road this year and average 2.2 goals per game while allowing 3 goals per game. 

They do have an easier slate of games, but it won't be easy for them to make a run. 


The Bears have a 6 game season, starting on Friday night in Providence.  Hershey just beat Providence on March 30, in come from behind fashion, so they can beat them.  If they want to make the playoffs they must.

Having a week to actually practice with their new additions (Michael Latta met the team in Syracuse Friday morning and has had nothing more than pregame walk-throughs as a member of the Bears) will surely be an addition. 

Personally I thought Latta looked good.  He doesn't seem like the fastest guy, but he actually won faceoffs (interesting concept that the rest of the guys should try), showed some offensive creativity and vision, and definitely has no problem hitting people.  He looked a little lost in the defensive end at times...but again, he just met the team on Friday. 

Dane Byers looked pretty good as well.  And Joel Rechlicz, well, Joel did what he does just fine.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him listed as a healthy scratch for many of the remaining games.  He isn't going to help the team offensively and isn't necessary on they physical side with Latta, Byers, and Wellar getting regular minutes.  I like Joel, love the enthusiasm, but the Bears need goals right now.


At the very least the Bears will make this interesting down to the final weekend.  And hey, they finally got me to start posting regularly again...that's something, right?

Bears win...little changes in playoff picture

The Bears earned a 4-1 win over the Syracuse Crunch last night, keeping them in 8th place in the Eastern Conference. 

Most of the teams surrounding the Bears in the standings kept pace however.  Entering the night the Connecticut Whale sat one point in front of the Bears and despite falling behind 2-0 to one of the Eastern Conference's top teams, the Springfield Falcons, in the first period, they came back to earn two points with a 4-3 regulation win to maintain their one point advantage in the standings.

The Norfolk Admirals, who trailed the Bears by 2 points, also beat one of the top teams in the conference, the Binghamton Senators, 2-1 to keep from falling any further behind. 

The other two teams ahead of Hershey that the Bears can possibly catch in the standings, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and Portland, also won their respective games to maintain their 5 and 6 point advantages, respectively.

The only teams to lose last night were the teams that trailed Norfolk.  The Albany Devils and Manchester Monarchs lost their games last night to fall even further behind in the playoff race. 

After last night this is shaping up as a 3 team race for 2 playoff spots.  The Baby Pens and Portland aren't clear of the woods just yet, but they would have to partially fall apart to fall out of the playoffs at this point.

For the scoreboard watchers out there...Norfolk again plays host to Binghamton at 7:15 tonight while Connecticut visits Bridgeport, with faceoff coming at 7:00. 

Hershey welcomes the Syracuse Crunch to, what should be, a loud Giant Center tonight. 

The Bears need points this weekend and a quick glance at the schedule prior to last night's game in Syracuse would have scared some backers.  But the Bears couldn't have asked for a better time to play the Crunch.  Despite clinching a playoff spot last night, along with 3 other top teams in the conference, the Crunch have struggled mightily of late.  In their last 6 games they are just 1-4-1-0 and have scored a total of 8 goals and have been shut out 3 times. 

The reason for the lack of offensive production seems to be a general lack of offensive talent.  On the season the Crunch have 10 players with double-digit goals.  The top 6 of those players are either recalled to Tampa Bay or are no longer on the team.  The current goal scoring leaders are Ondrej Palat and J.T. Wyman who have each scored 11 on the season. 

Hershey needs to take advantage of a weakened opponent and capitalize.  They did last night as Syracuse didn't even get their first shot until around the 11 minute mark of the 1st period. 

The Bears need to do it again tonight on home ice.

And they should get some solid support from the home crowd who will surely be excited to see enforcer Joel Rechlicz make his Bears 2012-13 debut after being a healthy scratch last night in Syracuse. 

Hershey has 8 games left.  16 possible points.  13 clinches a playoff spot.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears and the Playoffs

With 9 games left in their season the Bears sit precariously in the 8th, and final, spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

They are 1 point behind the 7th place Connecticut Whale, 2 points ahead of 9th place Norfolk, 3 points in front of 10th place Albany, and 4 points in front of the 11th and 12th place teams, Manchester and Bridgeport.

Seems to me that that covers all the teams that Hershey can catch in the standings or that they need to worry about beneath them.  Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is in 6th with 78 points, 5 more than Hershey's 71.  The chances of catching them are probably slim, but the Bears do have 2 games in hand and Sunday features a head to head matchup with the I-81 rivals.

Tonight and tomorrow feature a tougher set of games in the form of a home and home against the Syracuse Crunch.

The Bears, much like the Caps, playoff hopes really are quite simple....

Win the rest of your games and you are in.

See, nothing to it.

Last week I said that the Bears likely needed about 83 points to make the playoffs.  I stand by that number and that means the Bears need to earn 10 points in 9 games.  Definitely possible.

Good news?

All of the teams mentioned above have tough slates this weekend as well.

Norfolk gets 2 games against Binghamton.  Manchester gets Portland and Providence tonight and tomorrow.  Albany gets Providence, Wilkes-Barre, and Rochester.  Bridgeport gets Connecticut.  The Whale get Springfield, Bridgeport, and Providence.  And Wilkes-Barre gets Albany and Hershey (plus Adirondack...not a toughie).

Got all that?  Yeah, me neither.

It's pretty simple though.  Hershey can't afford losses.

BUT, if you want to scoreboard watch...here are the games to watch tonight:

Wilkes-Barre at Adirondack - 7:00
Providence at Albany - 7:00
Springfield at Connecticut - 7:00
Portland at Manchester - 7:00
Binghamton at Norfolk - 7:30

And of course...Hershey at Syracuse - 7:30.

A Connecticut loss, coupled with a Bears win would be rather awesome as it would give the Bears some breathing room between them and 9th place.

9 games left.

I expect to see some hockey at Giant Center after April 21.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears win...force Game 5 tonight

I had this whole post written up about last nights game...but then I realized...it's over.  It doesn't matter anymore.  One game is left to decide who moves on and who waits until next season.


I know this is NHL footage...but the idea is still the same:




And then there is this one...remember, the Bears are the underdogs tonight...but that doesn't mean anything until the game is done:
 


And finally...something more from OUR Hershey Bears...a couple of years ago the Bears backs were against the wall in the Calder Cup Finals. Down 2 games to none, headed for Texas. After a couple of victories in games 3 and 4 the Bears needed one more to avoid having to win two at home:


If you are going up to the game tonight...be loud. Many of us will be listening or watching on AHLLive and we want to hear Bears nation.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears win in OT...Game 4 on Friday

The Bears live to play another day.  Ryan Potulny's goal, 2:57 into overtime, finished off an up and down game for the Bears as they won for the first time March 28.

Hershey skated to a 2-0 lead after the first period on goals by DJ King and Cameron Schilling.  But Wilkes-Barre would get one back in the 2nd and the tying goal about 6 minutes into the 3rd period to make it a 2-2 game. 

The teams traded goals over the final 7 minutes of the 3rd period to force overtime where the Bears actually outshot the Pens 4-0 and picked up the win.

Yes it was a win.  Yes I am excited for game 4 on Friday night. 

But if the Bears intend to make this a real series and go back to Wilkes-Barre on Saturday, this needs to be the first step in the process.

Wilkes-Barre dominated the first few minutes of the game and it was beginning to look a lot like games 1 and 2 sounded.  Hershey couldn't get the puck out of their zone and had to block multiple shots and get saves from Dany Sabourin to stay even on the scoreboard.

The difference between the first 2 games of the series and last night?  Hershey scored first.  You could see the confidence grow when they got that goal and took their first lead of the series.  They started making crisper passes and seemed calmer with the puck. 

Unfortunately the Bears needed to readjust each period.  At the start of the 2nd and 3rd periods it was very similar.  Wilkes-Barre controlled the puck and Hershey couldn't get it out.  Poor clear attempts and hasty moves with the puck led to countless turnovers in their own end. 

In the 3rd period it cost them as Wilkes-Barre only left the offensive zone a couple of times in the first 6 minutes and picked up the tying goal at the end of that. 

But the Bears used the confidence they showed after scoring their first goal after each Wilkes-Barre tally and didn't let the game get away from them. 

It was an impressive performance considering the outcome of games 1 and 2. 

There is still work to be done though.

Today at practice I would have Mike Carman, Ryan Potulny, Andrew Carroll, and Cody Eakin working on faceoffs against each other for the entire practice. 

That was some of the worst faceoff performance I can remember seeing.  The AHL does not track faceoff stats so there is no telling how bad it really was but I would say Hershey won no more than 25% of the draws and that might be a high estimate.

Hershey overcame the problem last night thanks to a ton of blocked shots and Dany making some key saves...but if they continue to perform that poorly then they will struggle to compete in the coming game(s).

The other thing I was seeing involved the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton team speed.  After games 1 and 2 and even during the game last night I heard how much fast the Pens are then the Bears. 

I didn't see it.  Speed in sports is many times overrated. 

The reason the Pens appear faster than Hershey is because they are playing better positionally and executing their schemes better than the Bears are.  If you are lining up and rotating properly every time then you are going to look so much faster than the other team because you are always where the loose pucks are. 

And that's what happened for long stretches last night.  Wilkes-Barre would get the pucks in the zone and then move it with precision and confidence and would keep the puck in the zone for minutes at a time. 

Very rarely did you see the Pens make poor clearing passes or not have someone in the spot where a teammate expected them to be. 

Hershey?  How many times did you see clearing attempts blocked along the Bears or passes that were thrown to empty space as someone was out of position? 

I saw it quite a bit.  Wilkes-Barre's precision made the Bears look extremely disorganized.  Maybe the Bears weren't as disorganized as they looked at times...maybe the Pens were just that efficient.  But any way you look at, the Bears need to improve before tomorrow night.

Overall it was a good win.  An important win (obviously). 

But there is still improvements to be made and work to be done.  Wilkes-Barre's goaltending is not going to win them this or any series.  Hershey can (and did last night) take advantage of that...scoring 4 goals on only 22 shots. 

The Bears CAN win this series.  They just need to slow the game down (mentally) and improve their execution. 

Game 3 was a good first step.  Game 4 needs to go a step further.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Final 3 Games Coming Up

The Bears have 3 games left in their regular season.  This Friday they visit Portland, Saturday at Manchester, and the final regular season game is Sunday at Worcester.

After that the playoffs will begin.  The Bears first round opponent has not yet been determined though.  Everything seems to be setting up for a Wilkes-Barre/Scranton - Hershey Bears first round matchup, but it definitely is not set in stone.

Considering how the Bears have played of late (5 straight losses) there is no way you can definitively say that the Bears will get the #5 spot in the Eastern Conference. 

Currently the Bears sit there in 5th.  5 points behind Wilkes-Barre and 4 points ahead of Connecticut.  The chances of the Bears getting the 4th seed are slim to none.  They would have to win out and have Wilkes-Barre lose the rest of their games.  The Baby Pens are 7-3 in their last 10...I don't expect them to go on a 3 game losing streak to close the season.

The Bears falling to 6th seems more possible, although still not likely.  The Whale would need to win their last 3 while the Bears would need to lose their last 3.  The only reason this is more possible is because the Bears haven't exactly been playing well of late. 

And if they run the same lineup that they did on Sunday, for the rest of the season, no one will be surprised if they lose all three games.  (Just a note...I don't hate that lineup, its just that you aren't going to see a lot of scoring from a lineup featuring half a dozen recent college graduates.  They hustle and play hard, but the skill isn't quite there.)

Sure, there is a possible benefit to dropping to 6th for Hershey.  They would get the winner of the Northeast division, currently the Bridgeport Sound Tigers (although Connecticut still has a shot too) instead of the rival Penguins.

Obviously, at first glance you would think this is a good thing.  Both Bridgeport and Connecticut will finish with fewer points than the Pens and not many people would mistake either the Tigers or Whale for a better team than Wilkes-Barre.

But, there are three things to keep in mind here...

1.  Hershey only went 1-3 against Connecticut this season.  And if Hershey does fall to 6th, behind the Whale, there is the distinct possibility that the Whale also passes Bridgeport for the division crown and the 3rd seed.  Hershey is 2-1-0-1 against Bridgeport so should the Tigers hang on to the division lead this would likely be a better matchup for Hershey.

2.  If Hershey does finish as the 6-seed and gets by the Northeast champ in round 1 it would likely set up a Norfolk-Hershey 2nd round.  Personally, if I am the Bears and I was confident in a Calder Cup run I would prefer to wait until the Eastern Conference finals to play the team that hasn't lost in over 2 months. 

Sure, as the 5-seed the Bears are also in line to get the Admirals in round 2, but the chances of a lower seed winning grow substantially if the 6th seed is someone other than Hershey.  Meaning, I expect that the Whale's chances of beating the Tigers in the 6/3 matchup are much better than any 7-seed beating the St. Johns IceCaps. 

3.  Is Wilkes-Barre really that tough of a matchup?  Sure the rivalry is intense and the Baby Pens have had the Bears number for much of the last 2 seasons, but are the Pens good enough to win a best of 5 series?  Hershey went 5-5-1-1 against the Baby Pens this season.  That includes last weekends loss when the Bears were a shell of their true selves. 

When the Bears are healthy, which they will be much closer to 100% healthy by the time the playoffs start, things are much different and the Bears are capable of beating anyone.

In addition, the Pens are a bad home team.  So for them to get home-ice is not that much of a disadvantage for the Bears.  The Baby Pens are 25th in the AHL in winning percentage at home this season, winning only 47.2% of their home games.  The Bears were the AHL's 10th best team in regards to winning percentage on the road this season, winning 51.4% of their games. 

It is true that Hershey is better at home and the Pens are better on the road, but all I am saying is that Hershey is a better road team than the Pens are a home team.  So, considering that 3 of the first round games are likely to be played in Wilkes-Barre, the Bears are in good shape there.


No matter what though the Bears will only be competitive in the playoffs if they are healthy.  And there is definite good news on that front.  Graham Mink, Jacob Micflikier, Boyd Kane, and DJ King all practiced on Tuesday.  Whether they play this weekend or not is not clear as of right now, but they should all be ready for the playoffs which is where the real importance lies. 

In addition to that, Michal Neuvirth is expected to be ready for the NHL playoffs and will make the trip to Boston with the Caps.  That means that Dany Sabourin will be back in Hershey for the AHL playoffs.  The chances of Braden Holtby returning before either the Caps are eliminated or the second round, should the Caps eliminate the Bruins, are slim to none as Tomas Vokoun is still a ways off from returning. 

As for Keith Aucoin, Cody Eakin, and Dmitry Orlov....you won't see them in Hershey until the Caps are eliminated.  The first round series with Boston goes like this...Thursday, Saturday, Monday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Wednesday.  That means the earliest the Caps could be eliminated is next Thursday night. 

Since an opponent for the Bears first round series is still undecided there is no word on a playoff schedule either.  My guess is that the Bears/Pens season would either start next Wednesday or Friday, at the latest.  So, chances are Coiner, Eakin, and Orlov won't be in Hershey for the start of the series.  However, they could be back for the end depending on the success that Washington has.

I really believe the Bears have the talent to win the Calder Cup.  The first step is to get the guys in house healthy, which is occurring.  That is priority 1.  No matter what happens with Washington, the Bears can be successful in the playoffs with the guys they have in house.

However, I think the Bears will fail to advance too far in the Calder Cup playoffs without another center in the lineup.  Right now the depth chart at center looks like this Ryan Potulny - Mike Carmen - Andrew Carroll.  While I love what Carmen has done recently and I love the hustle Carroll displays...neither are going to provide enough offense to carry the team in the playoffs.

Don't think for a second that it was a coincidence that Hershey's 7 game winning streak ended and their 5 game losing streak started as soon as their #2 center, Cody Eakin, was recalled to Washington a couple of weeks ago.  The items are directly related.

Until Hershey sees another center return to the lineup they will struggle to get past a team such as Norfolk.  So, if you are hoping to see the Bears win their 12th Calder Cup, you should be hoping for Christian Hanson to return from his wrist injury (reportedly mid-May as of now, by the way) or a early exit for the Caps and a return to Hershey of Eakin and Aucoin.

If either of those happens...even Norfolk will have had a hard time beating the Bears.

Final Home Regular Season Game

The Hershey Bears will host the Connecticut Whale at 5:00pm tonight in the final regular season game at Giant Center in 2011-12.  There will be at least one home playoff game, but the final 3 regular season games are in New England.

This evening's game against the Whale could seal the Bears first round opponent.  If the Bears win, whether in regulation or after, the Bears would finish no worse than 5th in the Eastern Conference and would play the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the 5-game first round series.

Should the Bears lose, the Whale would be only four points back with 3 games to play.  As luck would have it the two teams play similar teams the rest of the way as well.  Both the Bears and Whale play Portland and Manchester.  But we will worry about that tomorrow....if necessary.

Unfortunately for the Bears the recent past has not been promising.  Four straight losses has followed a 7 game winning streak.

The scratches and lineup changes, announced before the opening faceoff, takes a little longer and is a who's who of AHL talent. 

And with the games becoming more physical as the playoffs grow near, that list is as likely to grow as it is to shrink.  Both Ryan Potulny and Boyd Kane departed games this weekend after big hits.  Both did return, but the game is taking its toll on guys.

If things weren't bad enough....there was this in the paper this morning:

French banished defenseman Kevin Marshall during the game. “It was a team-related matter,” French said.

That is from Tim Leone's write-up for the paper this morning.  I have no idea what happened, but when a respected beat-writer like Leone uses the word "banished" it definitely raises some eyebrows.  It will be interesting to see if Marshall has a jersey for tonight's game.

So, add disgruntled employee to the list of problems for the Bears at a critical moment in the season.

Dany Sabourin was expected to return to Hershey for the game tonight and will likely get the start.  The Capitals don't play until at least Wednesday so they don't need Dany there for the time being.

If Michal Neuvirth and Tomas Vokoun's injuries keep them out for an extended period it will be interesting to see how the goalies are handled between Washington and Hershey.  It isn't out of the question that Dany could just yo-yo between the teams if the schedules work out for that.

For example, if the Caps play Thursday-Saturday next weekend, Dany could play Friday and Sunday for the Bears.  Especially since the Caps will be in Boston for the first 2 games anyhow. 

That kind of rotation could continue for Dany if the Bears playoff schedule fits into the Caps schedule.  If the schedules don't work out you can be assured that Dany is Capitals property first and Bears second.  

More will be known later today I am sure.  Hopefully Neuvy or Vokoun can recover enough to at least serve as a backup which would allow Dany to return to Hershey full time.  I wouldn't expect both goalies to recover in time so the likelihood of Braden Holtby returning to Hershey is unlikely until the Caps are eliminated, if they would be.

Have a Happy Easter and enjoy the regular season home finale tonight!

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Caps or Bears...who are you rooting for?

A friend of mine asked me last night if I was rooting for the Caps to make the playoffs.  My response was yeah, I am.  But if they don't make it, it won't bother me at all.  I am honestly split 50/50 on it.  Yes, I hope they win their last 2 games and get in as the 8 seed.  At the same time, if they don't make it, I will be happy that the 'Bears' players on the team will be returning to Hershey for a Calder Cup run.

He felt differently.  While he isn't actively rooting against the Caps, he sure as hell isn't rooting for them either.  And I am guessing there are many in Bears nation who feel the same way.  And with good reason.  Should the Caps miss the playoffs the Bears team would get immediately better with the additions of Keith Aucoin, Dmitry Orlov, Cody Eakin, and Braden Holtby. 

Obviously, considering the injuries in Hershey right now, an influx in talent like that could be a difference maker.  Especially when you are likely facing the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the first round.

Now, he also said to me that if he felt the Caps had a legitimate chance at the Cup he might feel differently, but in his opinion they are basically playing for an early exit. 

This is where I guess him and I disagree the most.  Despite their uninspired play at regular intervals during the season, including as recently as Monday in Tampa, I believe that they have as good a chance at the Stanley Cup as any other team in the league. 

Is that crazy?  Probably.  But with a healthy Nicklas Backstrom this team is mostly the version that the Capitals envisioned when they put it together last summer.  And remember, this team was healthy at the beginning of the year as well...and they went 7-0 to open the season. 

But let's forget about that for a second.  Obviously I am a nut-job if I think the Caps have as good a chance at the Stanley Cup as the Flyers or Penguins or Rangers.  Obviously.

So, the question is...what are the Bears chances at winning the Calder Cup?

Healthy?  Pretty damn good. 

Current state?   Not likely.

That means that if the Caps are eliminated the Bears chances would skyrocket...right?

I don't think so.  The Bears need to be healthy to compete with the top teams in the league.  Jacob Micflikier, Graham Mink, Christian Hanson, and Patrick McNeill are all injured and are either barely practicing (Mink and McNeill), not practicing (Micflikier), or OUT for at least the rest of the regular season (Hanson). 

Add to that list Boyd Kane, DJ King, and Ryan Potulny who sat out practice on Tuesday for a 'maintenance day'.  Nothing to be alarmed about, but when guys start missing any practice time you start to worry a little.

Will adding Aucoin, Eakin, Orlov, and Holtby really make up for all the other injuries? 

I don't think so.  Yes, getting a healthy Aucoin (still #4 in the league in scoring, 2nd in assists) would be huge.  But would it make the Bears better than Norfolk?  A team that hasn't lost since February 4?  Doubtful. 

Who knows what Orlov will be like in Hershey.  I am sure he will play hard, but he hasn't been a Bear since before Thanksgiving.  Will his return cause more issues on the blueline then help?

Eakin is a stud and definitely makes the team better...but he isn't going to win games on his own. 

And Holtby...let's just say there are still huge questions about his playoff ability.  He has played 9 playoff games and his goals against average is well above 3.00 and his save percentage is well below .900.  And he wasn't exactly setting the league on fire before his recall to Washington. 

So, yes.  If the Caps miss the playoffs the Bears would be in better shape.  But unless they get the rest of their players back from injury, they aren't legitimate title contenders. 

So...again...I am rooting for the Caps to win their last two...but I won't be disappointed if they fail to show up in those games too.

How about you, are you rooting for the Caps to win or to do what they have been doing for most of the season, fall flat on their faces?

Bears struggle...back to 5th

Hershey entered the weekend on a 7 game winning streak and were in position for home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Then the Bears forgot how to win games.  First the St. John's IceCaps beat the Bears on Saturday, 3-2, in a game which wasn't really that close.  Hershey jumped out to a 1-0 lead and then proceeded to watch the IceCaps score 3 before Ryan Potulny scored his first of 4 on the weekend with only 14 seconds to go.

St. Johns is a solid team, locked in at #2 in the Eastern Conference, so considering the quantity and quality of scratches for the Bears, the outcome wasn't entirely surprising.

Sunday saw the cellar dwelling Binghamton Senators visit Giant Center for the final time in 2011-12.  Entering the game Binghamton had scored 2 goals at Giant Center all season.  2.  In three games. 

Well they fixed that average by scoring 6 (one because of the shootout victory) on Sunday.  Due to illness I was unable to attend, but from what I heard it was another lousy game from the Bears as a team.  Potulny was a bright spot though as he recorded what I believe is the Bears first hat trick of the year (am I wrong on that?) to bring the Bears back from a 3 goal deficit in the 3rd period.

13 shootout rounds later, the Sens had a victory and the Bears complete a 1 point weekend. 

To make matters worse for the Bears, the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins won both of their games this weekend. 

So, once again the Bears find themselves in 5th place in the Eastern Conference, 2 points behind the 4th place Penguins.  Friday's game in Wilkes-Barre is obviously very important, but I believe the Pens own the tiebreaker over the Bears which means Hershey would need more than just a win Friday to move back into 4th.

But the Bears also need to be concerned about the Connecticut Whale who currently sit in 6th with 80 points, just 7 behind the Bears.  The Whale visit Hershey on Sunday in another important game this weekend.  Considering the way the Bears played this past weekend, a slip to 6th in the standings is not inconceivable.

While a first round matchup from the 6-seed (currently against the Bridgeport Sound Tigers) definitely sounds more appealing/winnable than a matchup from the 5-seed against the Baby Pens....the 2nd round matchup for the 6-seed would likely come against the Norfolk Admirals. 

Norfolk has won 22 straight.  I don't think any team in the league (and some NHL teams) want to play the Admirals anytime soon.

Bears visit Bingo...Caps in trouble

Tonight the Bears will make their final trip of the season to Binghamton, New York.  While the Senators find themselves in last place in the Eastern Conference, and almost mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the Bears can't go into this assuming a win.

This is Hershey's 4th trip to the Southern Tier in 2011-12.  So far they are 2-1 and all 3 games have been close contests.  Combined the Bears have scored 12, the Senators 10 in the 3 games in Bingo. 

This is what would be referenced as a trap game in many sports.  You don't hear that too much in hockey, but they are there.  A game against a team that is out of the playoff conversation.  A game against a team that you have handled (at least on home ice) this season.  A game against a middling team before a game with a better team. 

The Bears have enough veterans to stay focused and get the win, but don't be surprised if it is much closer than you would hope for.  In fact, the Bears last visit to Binghamton ended in a 4-3 loss for Hershey.

Fortunately for the Bears they are close to clinching a playoff berth.  4 points.  4 points and the Bears would clinch a trip to the playoffs.  The seeding will still be in question, but the postseason trip will be official.

Which, unfortunately, is a lot more than you can say for the Bears NHL affiliate.  The Washington Capitals are now on the outside looking in at the NHL playoffs.  They sit 9th in the conference and still have a shot, but last night's deflating loss to the Sabres was pretty crushing.

While I am a Caps fan...I am a Bears fan first.  And to be honest with you, it's better for the Bears if they miss the playoffs.  Sure I would love to see the Caps make the playoffs and go on a terrific run.  But if they aren't going to go on that run (which seems unlikely considering the horribleness of last night) then I would just as soon see them miss the playoffs and send all Bears back to Hershey.

Braden Holtby will likely be on his way back as soon as Tomas Vokoun is healthy (which should be soon).  There was a chance that Braden could win the #1 job up there, but last night did everything but help that cause.  He likely would have had to be perfect to earn that opportunity and well, you know how that went.

Dmitry Orlov will be in Hershey as soon as the Caps season ends.  No questions about it.  He is on the clear day roster and the Caps will be looking for him to get some work.  He strikes me as a carefree, laid back kind of guy so I am guessing that while he will surely be disappointed in the end to the Caps season, he will be excited about coming to Hershey and competing for a Calder Cup.

The question mark here is Keith Aucoin.  And he is probably the most important piece as well.  With Keith in the lineup this is a different Bears team that scores power goals at a 30% clip. 

So, will he be back?  He is on the clear day roster so they will surely send him down.  The question is...does he have to clear waivers and, if so, will he.

Earlier this season we established that he would have to clear waivers.  He hit all the thresholds there so yes he would have to clear waivers...during the season. 

So, will Keith have to clear waivers once the Capitals season is complete?  It does not appear so, but I am only pretending to be an expert on this....

The "Playing Season Waiver Period" shall begin on the twelfth (12th) day prior to

the start of the Regular Season and end on the day following the last day of a Club's
Playing Season.

Based on that comment, straight from the NHL's Collective Bargaining Agreement, once the Capitals season is complete...either April 8th or after elimination from the playoffs...their playing season is complete and waivers would not longer be in effect.

Awesome, but what prevents teams from sending multiple players to the AHL?  The clear day rosters.  Only players identified on the clear day rosters or 'in-house' rosters are eligible to play for their respective AHL teams after the rosters are set.  Which was one week after the NHL trade deadline.

Again...I am not 100% certain that I am correct, but it would appear to me that once the Capitals season is over, they can send Keith Aucoin to Hershey without subjecting him to waivers. 

We may find out if this it true sooner than Caps fans were hoping to.


In other news:

- Injuries aren't getting better very quickly for the Bears.  Graham Mink, Jacob Micflikier, and Christian Hanson still aren't practicing.  And now Patrick McNeill isn't either.  Andrew Carroll is expected to play tonight though.

- The Caps signed defenseman Cameron Schilling to a 2-year entry level deal yesterday.  He is reporting to Hershey on a tryout contract and will be with the team the rest of the season.  Cameron just finished up his season with the NCAA's Miami Redhawks.  He is listed at 6'2" 197lbs.

Found this:

Schilling isn't a flashy player, but is a rock on defense. He's got pretty decent size and though he doesn't put up huge numbers, he can move the puck. He's the type of player that doesn't draw a lot of attention, but would make a very solid pro hockey player.

I would expect Schilling to get a look here over the next couple of weeks and then likely participate mainly with the Black Aces during practice and working for a roster spot in 2012-13.  This is perfect timing for the Bears considering that with Patty not practicing the Bears have only 6 healthy defenseman.  Now they have 7.

- Bears viewing party tonight!  I was hoping to make it out, but unfortunately won't be able to.  The good folks over at Sweetest Hockey on Earth have partnered up with ABC27 to bring this to you.  Everything starts at 6:30 at Fire Alley restaurant in Hershey.  Have some food, win some prizes, and watch the Bears!

In an instant it ends

First let me make 2 points...

1.  It was a good season.  The Bears dealt with injuries and recalls all season to finish in the top few teams of the AHL.  Trying to compare this team to the 08-09 or 09-10 versions just wasn't fair but human nature is such that we tried to do that time and time again.

In the end it was a great season that I feel ended before it was supposed to.  But you can't win them all and Hershey's record run of 8 straight playoff series wins ended there...at 8.

2.  Congratulations to the Charlotte Checkers.  They were the better team in the series.  You saw it in game 1 and that continued through game 6.  Despite the urgency that Hershey should have possessed in game 6 it was the Checkers that had the quick counter punch and the Checkers had the majority of the scoring opportunities.

They played a great season and deserved the victory.  Now...go get those Penguins!!!!

Okay...now that those two points are out of the way I want to say a couple more things about game 6 and the series as a whole.  Then we will move on and look at the offseason and follow the Caps as they look to continue deep into the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Personally I blame the game 6 and series loss on 2 things...

1.  Lazy play.  The final goal was exactly what cost this team during the playoffs....too many guys standing around watching and not enough playing. 

It was almost as if the Bears expected to win and were just waiting for the puck to go in the Charlotte net or be cleared from theirs. 

Sure, Braden Holtby didn't play as well as he did during the regular season...BUT neither did the defense.  Routinely Checkers were left standing by themselves right beside the goal just waiting for a rebound.  And those rebounds came (sometimes far too often) and that is an easy way to score goals in the playoffs.

Offensively this team just wasn't the same without Andrew Gordon.  Once he went down the Bears chances seemed to go with him. 

Which brings me to my 2nd complaint...

2.  Coaching.  I know French is a good coach but personally I think he let down the Hershey team and the fans.  If you watched the game yesterday you know that Hershey generated FEW real scoring chances.  And while I didn't see games 3-5 I expect that those games looked very similar to game 6.

You watch in the NHL and you see coaches willing to make changes.  Last year the Blackhawks shuffled lines in the Stanley Cup finals to get Toews and Kane more chances.  This year you have goalies being pulled every game in Philly.  In Vancouver the coach had the guts to sit Roberto Luongo.....yeah one of the best goalies in the league...because of 2 subpar outings.  Even in Washington you saw Boudreau make line adjustments damn near every period during the season.

But in Hershey?  French rolled the same lineup with the same line combinations for 4 straight games after Gordon went down.  And it worked 1 time.  And even that 1 time Hershey tried to blow a 3 goal lead.

I don't know if different combinations would have worked...no one does.  But I knew that the same ones wouldn't.  And honestly...when I saw the scratches and the starting lineup last night a sense of calm kind of came over me.  I obviously still believed but at the same time I knew that this was quite possibly the last time we would be in Hershey this spring.

And that sucked.  I just feel like French left something on the table.  I feel like he could have done more.  In the end it comes down to the players but the coaches didn't help them.

All series long they kept saying..."if we just play our game for 60 minutes."  What does that mean?  Sure if you say that after one game it makes sense.  But we have been saying that about this team all season.  In my opinion it was all the more reason to make some changes to the lineup and go out swinging.

But instead it feels as though they just rolled over and died.



In the end it really came down to one simple thing....Andrew Gordon.  You could have asked me before the playoffs to name one player that Hershey couldn't "afford to lose" and I would have listed at least 3 other names before Gordo.

Apparently I was wrong.  He was the Hershey offense this year.  Sure other guys scored goals but none were as dominant as Gordo when he was healthy. 

Unfortunately that was only evident when he wasn't healthy...including in the playoffs.

But in the end one injury should not derail a season like this. 

Oh well.  As I said above...You can't win them all.

Next year is another opportunity to hang banner #12.


Now....

LET'S GO CAPS!!!!!