Bears Open Camp

Today is officially the first day of the 2012-13 hockey season for the Hershey Bears.  The opening of training camp today marks the beginning of Hershey's 75th AHL season. 

There are some changes that the 75th year will bring.  The new logos are the most immediately noticeable changes.  A new roster is the second biggest change.  The roster is again talented and deep which will help considering some of the NHL caliber talent on AHL rosters due to the NHL lockout.  Hershey has a couple of guys that fit that label, Dmitry Orlov and Braden Holtby, but that is minor compared to some of the teams rosters. 

The final change for the upcoming season could have the most impact but may not be noticed by many people at all.  With a new coaching staff in Washington there are going to be subtle differences in the way the Bears play.  For most of us, this means nothing.  The main thing we care about are goals for, goals against, and wins and losses.  But for the players this could create opportunities for players or take away some.  Guys that fit certain roles in the past couple of seasons may find that those roles are expanded, diminished, or eliminated completely.  While other guys will fill new roles that are created by the system.

Considering the Bears have 3 days of practices before their first exhibition game, the changes are going to be sporadic at first.  In fact, I would imagine that there will still be mental lapses and blown assignments through the first few weeks of the season as players adjust to the slight changes. 

“We talked about it at development camp [in July],” French said. “There will be some changes to the way that we play.  Some things aren't going to change. But there will probably be two or three subtle differences in how we play, but not a change in the overall philosophy of how we want to play.”

Sometimes the subtle differences are the ones that are hardest to implement because things happen so quick on the ice.  It makes it easier for a guy to forget the new way and revert to the old style.

Fortunately, or unfortunately (depending on your feelings on it), the Bears will feature a bunch of guys that weren't in Hershey last year so they are learning a new system anyways.

43 players are scheduled to attend training camp.  Below are the positional lists for anyone that hasn't seen it.  The players that are shown in bold font are guys that I consider to be locked in to a roster spot in Hershey.  Names shown in italics are the guys with a legitimate shot to make the team.  Players in standard font are long shots to make the Bears and will likely be reporting to Reading.

The new ECHL affiliate Royals are scheduled to open camp tomorrow and the Bears coaching staff intends to make their first cuts on Thursday (after the first exhibition game on Wednesday night).  Expect to see a bunch of the long shots in the game Wednesday night.

Now to the roster:

Goalies:

• Brandon Anderson
• Philipp Grubauer
• Braden Holtby
• Sergey Kostenko
• Dany Sabourin

If the lockout were not ongoing, Braden would likely be in Washington and Grubauer would be starting off in Hershey.  I fully expect the NHL to play this season so this is likely a temporary situation but it isn't a bad one for the Bears.  Grubauer WILL see time in Hershey this season and likely won't be cut until the end of camp, but I don't see why the Bears would carry 3 goaltenders on the opening night roster.  Dany's spot is not in any danger in my opinion.  Even if Grubauer outplays Sabs I still think the Bears send the youngster to Reading to keep him in game action.

Anderson and Kostenko are raw and unknown prospects that may or may not pan out for the organization.  The theory for the Capitals in recent years is to take a goalie in every draft as you never know.  So far it has worked out.  It may again with these guys...but barring injuries I doubt either guy sees a minute on Giant Center ice this season.

Defense:

• Julien Brouillette
• Adam Comrie
• Brett Flemming
• Tomas Kundratek
• Kevin Marshall
• Patrick McNeill
• Steven Oleksy
• Dmitry Orlov
• Cameron Schilling
• Garrett Stafford
• Dustin Stevenson
• Brad Walch
• Patrick Wellar
• Scott Wietecha

14 defensemen are in camp.  I expect the Bears to start the season with 8 on the roster.  Kundratek, Marshall, McNeill, Orlov, Schilling, and Stafford are locks to be in Hershey.  That leaves only 2 spots open.  Let's start this discussion with the players unlikely to make the team.

Walch will be in his first professional season and playing time in Reading is most important for him.  Stevenson has been in the ECHL for a couple of seasons and might get a game or two in Hershey as an injury fill in but I don't see him playing in Hershey much.  Wietecha has some offensive game, 14 goals and 13 assists in 55 ECHL games last season, but he has yet to make his AHL debut.    Comrie is under contract with Reading and is probably the unlikeliest to make the Bears.

Now for the fringe guys...

Odds are that the final two spots will be Brouillette's and Wellar's to lose since the coaching staff knows them and understands what they bring to the table.  But, with Orlov staying in Hershey for the time being there is one less spot available so their spots are not locked in.  Of the two I think Wellar's spot is safer. 

Flemming is a good young player, but I don't see them rushing him.  Why keep him in Hershey to start the season and sit in the stands when he can get regular playing time in Reading.  He likely has a brighter future than the other 3 fringe guys, but that future will likely wait until later this year or next.

Oleksy has 67 games of AHL experience and was a plus 16 in 50 games for Bridgeport last season.  In a normal season I would give him excellent odds of starting in Hershey.  In this lockout season...I think he is the first or second call up option.

It's a solid group of players with or without Orlov.  I can't imagine a defensive unit in the league any better then this one.  Schilling is a rising star in the organization.  Kundratek got time in the NHL last season and is highly regarded as well.  This might be McNeill's last chance in the organization but I think Hershey fans feel pretty good about him on the blueline.  Same can be said for Marshall to be honest although he was limited to 31 games last year due to injuries.  Stafford is the veteran presence that should help the young guys continue to progress.  

Forwards:

• Barry Almeida
• Matt Beaudoin
• Alex Berry
• Mike Carman
• Joel Champagne
• David Civitarese
• Matt Clackson
• Jon DiSalvatore
• Stanislav Galiev
• Tyler Gron
• Zach Hamill
• Jon Kalinski
• Boyd Kane
• David Marshall
• Garrett Mitchell
• Danick Paquette
• Matt Pope
• Ryan Potulny
• Mattias Sjogren
• Ryan Stoa
• T.J. Syner
• Jeff Taffe
• Jesse Todd
• David Vallorani

24 forwards in camp with I suspect 15 positions open for the start of the season.  13 are locks in my opinion. 

Let's talk first of the players that likely have little chance to open the season in Hershey.  And these are some names to keep in mind as some good players (Andrew Gordon and Steve Pinizzotto to name a couple recent guys) have come through the ECHL to AHL.

Tyler Gron and Jesse Todd both finished their college careers last year and got a sniff of the AHL.  Gron played 3 games with Bridgeport and picked up an assist while Todd played 5 games in Hamilton and picked up 3 helpers.  Both guys packed some offensive punch in college so keep their names handy going forward.

Vallorani is also a recent college graduate but he didn't get a shot in the AHL last season.  He was at development camp in July and impressed the staff enough to give him a shot.  He is a diminutive player, standing only 5'8" (just like Almeida and Syner actually) so the odds are against him.  He is a solid offensive player though.  Just a question of many players under 5'9" do the Bears want to roster this season.

Champagne is a year removed from a very successful junior career in the QMJHL.  He was a 5th round pick of the Maple Leafs and played 55 games with Milwaukee last year, picking up 6 goals and 6 assists.  Definitely a good player headed to Reading, but he won't make a huge impact in Hershey this season I don't think.

Civitarese played 10 games for the Bears last season after his college season ended and he will likely get another look this year but there are too many bodies in Hershey for him to start the season here.

Marshall is the journeyman of the group, having spent parts of the last 4 seasons playing for 8 different franchises in the ECHL and AHL including the Baby Pens 2 years ago.  Another depth piece like Champagne but unlikely to make an impact in Hershey.

Paquette is a feisty player who doesn't bring much offense at this point in his career.  Too small for a heavy weight (6'0" 210 lbs) and not quite offensive enough for a 3rd line role, he is likely headed to another season in the ECHL.  Could see a sniff of Hershey this year if the cards fall right for him.

Now let's look at the fringe guys. 

Syner and Almeida might as well be discussed together.  The cousins both finished their college careers and signed contracts with the Bears immediately afterwards.  Neither is truly average height for an adult male, but both can skate and make plays.  Personally, I love seeing guys like this on the ice.  They are quick, have incredible vision to make plays, and are tough as anyone.  They have been counted out for years due to their size and have made it this far.  Keith Aucoin and Chris Bourque understand what they are going through.  As do guys like Martin St. Louis.  Are Syner or Almeida in that class....unlikely, but still a little early to tell.  I suspect that at least one of them starts the season in Reading, if not both.  When everyone is healthy the Bears are likely looking for guys that can kill penalties and play 4th line, physical minutes.  Not saying these guys can't do it...but I suspect other guys get the chance first.

Pope is that type of player.  He is never going to log power play minutes and won't see time with the first liners, barring injury, but he will kill penalties and play a physical, high energy game with his linemates.  A veteran player who isn't going to disappoint in his role.

Mitchell.  The Bears depth is good again this year.  That explains his appearance on the fringe list.  But, to his advantage, he is the same as Pope...with a bit more offensive upside I think.  I said last year that Mitchell reminded me a lot of Gordon in the way he skated and is built.  I don't think Mitchell has that kind of offensive upside but I think he could have Jay Beagle kind of upside...15-20 goals and assists, given the necessary minutes.  I think he makes the roster but could see them sending him to Reading for more playing time to see if he can develop further offensively. 


The roster saw a lot of turnover from last season to this one...more than in other years it felt like.  It is likely to take some time for guys to adjust to each other.  And it will take some time for the coaching staff to figure out line combinations and which guys are right for certain situations. 

Overall I think this is a good team with loads of depth.  The Reading Royals are going to be contenders in the ECHL as they will also load up on talent that doesn't immediately make a spot in Hershey. 

The season is only two weeks away.  I will have plenty more over the coming weeks. 

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

Some Updates Would Be Nice

July 4, 2012.  That was my last post.  Wow.  I am fairly certain that August 2012 was the first month since I started this blog that at least one post was not written. 

But we are now in September so why not get started again.  Not a whole lot happened over the past month and half but a few things did...let's touch on them.

The 2012-13 Roster:

My page is updated (I believe) as of today so if you want to see the players that are likely to be in Hershey for camp on the 29th, this list should include most of them. 

Lots of good talent in Hershey this year and it could get better...

The Lockout:

I would imagine that most of you have heard about the prospective NHL lockout that is likely headed our way this fall.  Apparently the guys making the millions can't figure out how to share it and instead of sitting down and figuring it out like adults, they are going to stomp their feet and take away the product that actually makes their money in the first place.  Makes sense to me...or not.

Anyways.

We will still have hockey in Hershey no matter what so honestly I don't really care.  In addition, other talented players could make their way to Hershey. 

From my understanding of the rules (which is limited by the way) all players on entry level contracts would be eligible for the AHL.  Meaning...Braden Holtby, Dmitri Orlov, and Marcus Johannssen would be eligible to play in Hershey.

After those players it creates a bit of uncertainty as players on 2-way contracts would either need a waiver to be signed by the NHLPA or would need to redo their contracts to AHL one way deals until the lockout is ended.  In addition, I am not sure how a player like Ryan Potulny would be affected as he is on a NHL one way contract this year. 

Lots of questions still to be answered...hopefully the egos in the NHL and NHLPA can work through their stubbornness and prevent this from turning into an extended hockey break.

New Colors and New Logos:

The great folks over at Sweetest Hockey on Earth took some impressive pictures during the unveiling of the new jersey's and logo's party for season ticket holders.  I was unable to attend and was eagerly awaiting their photographs.  I borrowed a couple of pictures from their site but please head on over to Sweetest Hockey on Earth to see the rest.

I love the new (old) colors and the logo is very nice.  Personally still love the skating bear and the history of it but this is definitely an improvement over the most recent logo. 

I found the 'alternate' or shoulder patch logos elsewhere on the web (link to site here) and personally would love to see a jersey with this logo on the front:

I would buy a jersey with that on the front.  And I don't buy jerseys.

Overall, very nice and I am looking forward to seeing the players in the new jerseys for opening night at GC on October 20th.

The Schedule:

Speaking of October 20th.  That is the Bears home opener this year...against Rochester.  The Bears open their 2012-13 season in Syracuse on Saturday, October 13th.

No real surprises in the schedule.  Wilkes-Barre is on the list 12 times, Binghamton 8 times, Norfolk 8 times, and Syracuse 6 times.  Hershey will play Toronto, Rochester, Hamilton, and Lake Erie from the Western Conference and everyone from the Eastern Conference at least twice.

For those still complaining that the Bears don't play all the other teams...remember that each individual team creates their own schedule.  Many of us season ticket holders would love to see Abbotsford or Texas on the schedule.  But we have to keep in mind that ticket sales are the most critical part of the teams financial success and when you can pretty much guarantee sell-outs when the Penguins come to Hershey...wouldn't you schedule them as much as possible too.  And for the teams in Texas, Oklahoma City, and other non-traditional hockey markets...you need to hold those rivalry games as much as possible as you aren't selling near as many seats as the Bears already. 

Yes it's frustrating but it's also business.  Until the AHL takes over the scheduling (highly unlikely) this is the kind of thing you will see every year.

Exhibition Schedule:

Hershey will play 4 exhibition games this year.  Two road games...Binghamton and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and two home games against the same teams.  The games will be held October 3, 5, 6, and 7. 


Now that we are getting closer to the season I would imagine that I will be posting more frequently.  That's the plan anyways.

Bears Go Shopping

After sitting by on day 1 of free agency the Bears have made a pretty big splash this holiday week.  On Monday the Bears signed 4 players to AHL only contracts and then added another yesterday.  Prior to that the Capitals made a signing that could (likely will) influence Hershey.  Without further delay...

Jeff Taffe

This is probably the most recognizable name to Bears fans.  Taffe played for the Baby Pens in 2007-08 and 2008-09.  In fact, his best career season, in regards to total points, was 08-09 when he recorded 25 goals and 50 assists in 74 games.  His career for goals in a season is 30, recorded two years ago while playing in Rockford.  His linemate in Rockford that season...Ryan Potulny.  Just sayin'.

Last year, while playing in Houston, he recorded 18 goals and 35 assists over 73 games while also picking up 2 assists for the Minnesota Wild in 5 NHL games.

Taffe has played in more than 320 professional games and is will count against the Bears veteran limit.  He is actually signed to an AHL one way contract right now as that came with more money than a two-way deal would have at the AHL level.  He has played in at least 1 NHL game in every season since he finished his college career and expectations are that the Caps will not hesitate to sign him to an NHL deal should they need him.

Jon DiSalvatore

This name is, to me anyways, much less recognized.  He has spent the past three years in Houston, playing alongside Taffe last year, and has been their captain all three years.  He has played 9 AHL seasons and has scored 20 or more goals in all of them.  He has scored 28 in each of the last two seasons.

He is durable as well.  He has missed only 1 game the past three regular seasons and has played in 72 or more games in all but one of his 9 AHL seasons.  And that one season he still played in 66 games.

Like Taffe, he will count against Hershey's veteran limit.

Alex Berry

Last season Berry was a member of the Portland Pirates but suffered a compound arm fracture in training camp and missed the whole season.  Prior to that the 26 year old right wing spent the 2010-11 season with the Norfolk Admirals where he recorded 14 goals and 20 assists.

Steve Oleksy

Oleksy has played in only 67 career AHL games so he is more of a depth signing than anything, especially considering the players already under contract on the blue line, but as we have seen in recent years...you can never have too much depth.  Last season he played 50 games for Bridgeport.  He scored 1 goal and added 14 assists while also finishing a +16 (third on the team).

Mathieu Beaudoin

Mr. Beaudoin broke into the AHL back in 2007-08 and played 7 games for the Bears that season before moving on to additional playing time and opportunity.  In 2010-11 he scored 21 goals and added 30 assists in just 63 games as a member of the San Antonio Rampage and played in the AHL All-Star game in Hershey.

Last season he battled a thumb injury for much of the season and only played in 47 games for Portland, recording 5 goals and 17 assists.  He was also a member of the Texas Stars in the 2010 Calder Cup finals against the Bears.

One of the best qualities that he brings to the team this year is that he is not a veteran.  So he is an offensive skill player that will not count against the teams veteran limit which should open the door to plenty of playing time.  Unlike DiSalvatore though, he appears to be a bit more fragile.  He hasn't played in more than 72 games in any of his professional seasons.

Garrett Stafford

This is the only player of this group that is a Washington Capitals signing.

Stafford played his 2011-12 season split between Hamilton and Portland.  He only played in 48 games between the two teams but recorded 9 goals and 19 assists in those games.

Like Beaudoin, he was a member of the Texas Stars 2010 Calder Cup finals team against Hershey.  In fact, Doug Yingst had this to say about Stafford:

“We collectively [with Washington] designated Garrett as the No. 1 right-handed defenseman available on a two-way contract for the American Hockey League,” Yingst said. “We thought when Texas played against us -- they had him and Andrew Hutchinson as their No. 1 and 2 -- we thought Stafford was better. Our need, obviously, on our depth chart is for right-handed D.”

Stafford will also count against the veteran limit.

Kevin Marshall

Marshall has agreed to terms for the 2012-13 season.  As a restricted free agent this doesn't surprise me too much, but it always good to officially get guys under contract with time to spare.

News around Hershey

So a guy goes on vacation for a week and a few things of note take place.  Obviously a good deal has happened this offseason so far and I haven't exactly been updating with any type of frequency.  Let's take a second and look at some of the stories I haven't mentioned to date.

Cody Eakin traded

The Capitals traded the young center and a 2nd round pick to the Dallas Stars for Mike Ribeiro.  Eakin was likely destined for the Bears roster for at least part of the upcoming season so this can be considered to have a direct impact on the Bears 2012-13 roster. 

For the Caps I love this trade.  They have been missing a true 2nd line center since Sergei Federov left and Ribeiro should fill that role admirably. 

For the Bears I don't hate this trade.  Yes Eakin was a good young talent and always played hard, but he would have been a top recall option for the Caps this season and likely wouldn't have been much of a factor come playoff time assuming the Caps make the playoffs and bring up some extra bodies.  So yes I think Eakin would have been a member of the Bears for much of the season and would have been a top contributor, but at the same time I think this allows the Bears to go out and sign a free agent that has a better chance to last in the AHL this season.

Rule Changes

The AHL is getting video replay for questionable goals.  This is obviously a good thing for the game as there were some questionable goals scored against (and surely for) the Bears this past season.  In theory, the replay will remove the doubt from some of the goals. 

My only concern is how the equipment works on an arena by arena basis.  Unlike the NHL system this will be done by each team and will be all in house.  Therefore, you could come across a situation where the equipment at one arena is inferior to the equipment at another.  Time will tell, but overall I don't see where this is ever a bad thing. 

One other rule change that you will notice immediately is being done at the request of the NHL.  A variation of a no-touch icing rule will be in effect until November 19, 2012.  Basically if the puck is already across the goal line and the defensive player is the first to reach the faceoff dot, the play is whistled at that point. 

The theory behind the no-touch icing is to eliminate the collisions that take place when players are racing for the puck beyond the goal line.  I don't see how this changes anything.  Within the current rules injuries are probably rare when the defenseman reaches the faceoff dots first anyways as the forward likely isn't coming that hard anymore.  The times when injuries surface are when two guys are still neck and neck at that point, which will not be affected by this rule.

Both rules are for the betterment of the game and I don't think either is, in any situation, bad for the game.  But I also don't think they are earth shattering changes.

Jacob Micflikier to Europe

I honestly believed that the Bears/Caps were going to give Micflikier another contract and the diminutive winger would be back in Hershey for at least another year.   Alas, that isn't going to be the case as he has signed to play in Switzerland for the upcoming year.  Based on the linked article from Tim Leone, it sounds as though he was close to resigning with the organization but is hoping a shift to a different league might give teams a different view of him.

At the age of 28, Micflikier is running out of time to impress NHL staffs and get a legitimate shot in the league.  I am not convinced that going to Switzerland is really the best thing for any player.  The game in Europe is much different than the North American game and you rarely hear of players having success with "re-launching" their careers in Europe.  If they do it is surely when they play in either the KHL or Swedish Elite League.

Chris Bourque played in Switzerland for the 2010-11 season before returning to the AHL last season and having an MVP caliber season.  If Bourque gets an NHL opportunity this upcoming season he will have this past season to thank...not his year in Europe.

The AHL is arguably the second best league in the world.  Maybe the financial parts of his deal were more influential than we realize (I have no idea what the terms are), but if he is truly using this as a launching pad then I question the logic.

But hey, what do I know.  Good luck Jacob!

Mike Carman is signed for 2012-13

Carman was a restricted free agent and the Capitals had tendered him an offer so the chances of him leaving were slim to none already.  But yesterday it was made official as he signed a one year contract with the organization.  Based on numbers from Capgeek.com he will make $65,000 in the AHL this season, a $5,000 a year raise from last year. 

Carman played in 32 games for the Bears in 2011-12 after coming over in a trade from the Colorado/Lake Erie organization.  He scored 7 goals and added 5 assists while bouncing around from the 2nd-4th line.  He is a center in the mold of Andrew Joudrey, a solid defensive player with a limited offensive game.  He is a role player with some upside. 

Glad to see him back for 2012-13.

Capitals Developmental Camp

The Capitals announced that their annual summer development camp will take place from July 9-14 in Washington.  A roster for the camp has not yet been announced, but it is generally recent draft choices as well as rookie free agents.  There are typically signings that result from the camp and possibly even a player that could contribute in Hershey this upcoming year.  Time will tell.  I have yet to go to one of these....someday I will make it down.

Free Agency begins tomorrow, July 1

NHL/AHL free agency period is open for business tomorrow.  With an expiring CBA currently being negotiated you might see a little more cautious activity than usual as teams can't be certain of an exact salary cap number for 2012-13 but plenty of activity will surely take place.

On this site we are mainly concerned with how signings impact the Hershey Bears.  And thanks to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins beat writer Jonathan Bombulie we have a comprehensive list of AHL talent that is available.  On June 24 he posted his top 250 list that identifies, in his opinion, the top 250 AHL caliber players available.  

As of this morning the list is somewhat jumbled as players have been eliminated and/or added due to qualifying offers being made.  He will be updating the list tomorrow and, if I remember, I will update this post to include that link. 

He has Keith Aucoin ranked as the #2 player available.  I am honestly somewhat concerned that Keith hasn't resigned with the organization already.  Hopefully it is just a formality, but something tells me he is curious to hear what teams are offering.  If he manages to get a one way offer from an organization I have to imagine he will take it...I would.  Hopefully he comes back, but if he doesn't I hope he finds permanent success in the NHL.

I am excited to see who the Caps/Bears sign as there are lots of spots open on the Hershey roster and a limited number of prospects available to fill them.  The #1 player on the list is LW Jonathan Audy-Marchessault who played for the Connecticut Whale last season, scoring 24 goals and adding 40 assists in his first pro season.  He is a small forward, only 5'9", which explains why he wasn't drafted by an NHL team.  But as the Norfolk Admirals are well aware (and the Bears for that matter), smaller players can pack an offensive punch at this level.  Might the Bears be in on the Audy-Marchessault sweepstakes....who knows.


That's all for now.  For the next month there should be some regular updates as we discuss players that have signed with the Caps/Bears.  The roster will begin taking shape tomorrow.

Player news in late May...unusual

Typically we don't start hearing about what players will make up the next season's roster until July and August so getting news on one player was surprise enough.  But today news on a second player was made. 

First up, Chris Bourque is no longer affiliated with the Washington Capitals organization.  Since he was drafted 33rd overall by the Capitals in 2004 he has spent roughly 90% of his professional career tied to the organization.  If you discount the 20 games he played for Pittsburgh after being claimed on waivers in 2009-10, he has been a part of the Washington organization his entire career.

*Yes I know he played overseas in 2010-11, but he was still a restricted free agent in the Capitals system and was still technically a Washington Capitals prospect.

That all ended late last week.  A little over 30 days before it was ending anyways.

Chris Bourque believes that he has NHL talent.  And why shouldn't he.  I believe his talent level is NHL quality...the issue has always been his size, or lack thereof.  At 5'8" he is generally considered too short to play in the NHL. 

Well, Chris is looking to disprove that notion and told the Capitals as much.  The organization knew that he was very unlikely to resign with them once he hit unrestricted free agency on July 1 of this summer. 

So he was leaving Hershey one way or another.  The Capitals just decided that they wanted to see if they could get something for him. 

One shouldn't expect to get equal value (or any value for that matter) for a player that has played sparingly in the NHL and is set to be an unrestricted free agent in about 30 days.  You are basically offering teams a player that they would have a shot at signing on July 1 if they chose to wait.  Teams won't give up too much for that chance.

Once in a while you will see a high-end NHL caliber player coming up on free agency get traded in the same situation.  Generally though that is for players that teams are certain will start the following season in the NHL.  No offense to Chris, but I doubt he fits into that category for most teams.

Somehow though the Caps managed to flip him for a player of quality.  The Boston Bruins were apparently tired of waiting for prospect Zach Hamill to pan out and decided to take a chance on Washington's diminutive winger. 

Hamill was the #8 overall pick in the 2007 NHL draft.  He has played 256 games in the AHL since then, scoring 44 goals and adding 95 assists.  Obviously his numbers aren't comparable to Bourque's, but not many are.  (In case you were curious...Chris has 132 goals and and 263 assists in 398 regular season AHL games). 

Hamill has also played in 20 NHL games, recording 3 assists for the big Bruins. 

No one is going to try and tell you the Capitals got equal value (based on past production) for Chris Bourque.  But they did manage to turn nothing into something.  Chris wasn't coming back...Zach will be.

Hamill also fills a need for the Bears (he is a long shot to make the Caps).  He is a center.  And if you remember, the Bears had some injuries at center late in the season and struggled to find capable replacements. 

AND, Chris was a veteran, having played in more than 320 professional games in his career.  Hamill is a veteran exempt, having played in between 260-320 games in his professional career.  Therefore, Hamill is easier to work with on a roster as team is allowed to dress one veteran-exempt player each game in addition to the 5 veterans.

*Note that the NHL collective bargaining agreement is set to expire this summer which could influence rules like the one I just discussed, as well as waiver rules.  So the above paragraph may end up not being true...but based on this past season it is.

It is unfortunate to see Chris leave as he is a good player and seemed to come into his own the past year or so.  Both him and the organization left open the possibility of him returning down the line if it doesn't work out in the NHL, but I for one am hoping to see him succeed and stick with the Bruins.

At the same time though, I am excited to see what Hamill can do in Hershey.  Players routinely came to Hershey and saw their skills really brought out of them and they exploded for big seasons.  Hamill might be the same way. 


So that's one player news item down, one to go.  This one will be much shorter.


Dany Sabourin will likely be a Bear 2012-13.  He resigned with the organization for the upcoming season and barring injuries will be in Hershey for the campaign.

Dany had a solid season this year and it will be great to have him back to help young Philip Grubauer, who is expected to make the jump from the ECHL to the AHL. 


So there you go.  Two players you can expect to see in Hershey this upcoming season that we either didn't know about last week or weren't sure about last week.  And I think both are good for Hershey.

Coaches have been hired

News is rolling in fast here this week.  Just a few minutes after I wrote up the posts you saw about an hour ago, I saw that item #2 on the Bears offseason to-do list was crossed off.

Coaches Mark French and Troy Mann will be returning behind the bench in Hershey for 2012-13. 

I honestly thought the organization would try to better align their coaching strategies this offseason.  Apparently that wasn't their biggest concern.  And considering how well recent Bear 'graduates' have played in the NHL, maybe it shouldn't be.

Personally I am not thrilled with this move, but I am not really upset either.  It doesn't shock me, that's for sure. 

Considering that the past two springs have seen a bunch of injuries and call-ups, I am guessing that the organization wanted to give French and Mann a chance to see what they can do with a full roster at the key time.  It has been hard to put a consistent, balanced roster together the last two springs. 

And in all honesty, considering what happens in most sports, it is nice to see an organization remain patient with a set of coaches and not dismiss them at the first sign of trouble.

Bears and Caps extend affiliation

Item #1 on the Bears offseason to-do list has been crossed off.  I think we all expected this to happen, but everyone knows what happens when you assume.

The Capitals and Bears announced today that they have extended their affiliation agreement through the 2013-14 season.  This is good news for all parties involved I think.  With the teams close together it makes it easier on the players.  And there are obviously plenty of Caps fans in Hershey who enjoy seeing the 'future' Caps before they jump to the NHL.

As a fan watching the players move up it is special.  Watching Braden Holtby become the star of the playoffs was pretty cool.  (I wish he could have been that steady and superb here in Hershey as well...but that's a post for a different time.)

Jay Beagle, Mathieu Perreault, John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Jeff Schultz, Brooks Laich, Michael Neuvirth, Cody Eakin, Dmitry Orlov, and (indirectly) Matt Hendricks...they all had playoff success in Hershey before having playoff success in Washington. 

And then there was Keith Aucoin.  He has spent the past 4 years in Hershey, scoring goals and assisting on tons more.  He is arguably one of the best players in the AHL every single year.  To see him get a legitimate look in the NHL and actually play meaningful minutes in meaningful playoff games...that was pretty awesome.  Everyone Bears fan who has seen him the last 4 years know that he can play and it's great to see him get the chance to prove that he can do it on at the highest level.

As much as I wanted to see Coiner (and the rest of them that were eligible) return to Hershey for the Bears run, I was absolutely fine with seeing it not happen as well.  I was really hoping that Keith would have gotten his name on the Stanley Cup after putting in his dues in the AHL for so long.  It wasn't meant to be...this year...but I am sure he wouldn't trade it for anything.

Sorry, kind of went off in a different direction there.

The Caps/Bears affiliation has obviously been successful...7 years, 7 playoff appearances, 4 Calder Cup finals appearances, and 3 Calder Cups. 

Pretty sure ANY franchise in ANY sport would take that kind of success and run with it. 

The past couple of years has seen a lesser influx of talent within the Washington Capitals organization and more in the way of free agent signings.  This trend is not likely to end anytime soon.  Currently the Capitals organizational ranking when it comes to prospects is in the 25-30 range of the NHL.  Meaning they are one of the thinnest franchises in regards to prospect talent.

The nice thing about the affiliation is that the Caps don't look at Hershey and say too bad.  They assist in signing players (Kyle Greentree, Alexandre Giroux, Jacob Micflikier, Brian Fahey, Dany Sabourin) that will help the Bears be a winning team. 

And it doesn't appear that there is much 'influence' on the Bears on who to dress and who not to dress.  If there was then guys like Aucoin and Chris Bourque would see their minutes diminish in favor of players like Eakin or Garrett Mitchell. 

Overall it is a good affiliation that will no doubt continue to assist both teams toward their yearly goals of hoisting a championship trophy. 

Washington Capitals Offseason

After their game seven loss to the New York Rangers on May 12 in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, it is time for the Washington Capitals to hang up their hockey jerseys, store their goalie gloves and face what promises to be a tumultuous off-season.

Numerous players, including Alex Semin, Dennis Wideman, Mike Knuble, Tomas Vokoun, Jeff Halpern, and Keith Aucoin are unrestricted free agents.

Rumor has it that Semin is going to move on, as he should.

Wideman will likely be too expensive considering the Caps will likely have eight defenseman (including Tom Poti) on the roster heading into next season. (I fully expect the Caps to tender offers and likely keep their restricted free agents which include John Carlson and Mike Green.)

Vokoun has already said his stay in Washington was only supposed to be for a year and with the emergence of Braden Holtby there likely wasn’t room even if he wanted to come back.

Halpern’s role was taken by Jay Beagle late in the season and during the playoffs. Assuming the Caps resign the restricted free agent Beagle, I would imagine that the role will be his next season as well.

That leaves Knuble and Aucoin as the only two legitimate options for the Caps to resign. And I could see both happening…assuming the players understand their roles. Knuble would be converted into a 4th line grinder with limited ice time and Aucoin would likely report back to Hershey and be an emergency call up option again.

Who knows what happens but I don’t see too many teams looking at Coiner and giving him a one-way NHL deal so the question for him is would I rather play in Hershey or another AHL city. I suspect he will be back.

The coaching element of this is also intriguing. As in…there is no coach. Coach Dale Hunter has already announced that will be returning to his role as owner and coach of the London Knights in the Ontario Hockey League. And GM George McPhee has already said that the team will take it’s time in finding a coach.

This influences multiple things for both the Caps and the Bears. In Washington it obviously means that you don’t know what system will be in place, therefore, you might not know exactly which free agents to target. Do you want to bring in an offensive force that costs a lot of money just to end up in a system like Hunter’s again with limited offensive output? It’s a question the Caps need to figure out.

It also affects Hershey though. Will the Capitals be looking for a similar coach to mold their prospects better for the big club? If I was running the team I would definitely want a coach with a similar strategy coaching my prospects and preparing them for the NHL. That way when they make the jump to the NHL they are at least prepared to play with their teammates even if they aren’t quite physically ready to handle the pounding.

Coach Mark French’s contract also expired this season I believe so now is the time to make a change if you want to.

My guess…expect a new coach in Hershey for the 2012-13 season.



There are plenty of questions to be answered heading into the offseason, probably more than usual. But with the Caps relative success this spring, expectations next year are sure to be high again.

As for expectations in Hershey…well, one only has to look to the Giant Center rafters to understand.

2011-12 season is over

It's been a few days now since 7 seconds in the 2nd period ultimately ended the Bears 2011-12 season.  The Baby Pens scored 2 goals in 7 seconds, the 2nd on a freak bounce that went Wilkes-Barre's way, to take a 2-0 lead in the deciding game 5 of the series.  Hershey would respond well in the 3rd period and make it 2-1, but they never got the tying goal.

So a season that started out with high aspirations ends in the first round of the playoffs.  Tim Leone's piece says that the Bears lost 162 man games to injury this season and used 42 different players during the season.  Considering a typical roster consists of 23-25 players, 42 is a lot.  But considering the constant fluctuation of AHL rosters it isn't really that much.

Unfortunately for the Bears the players that were missed to injury and recall were critical pieces to the team puzzle. 

But at the end of the day it doesn't matter.  The season is over and whatever reason you want to give, it doesn't change any of it.

The focus shifts to the 2012-13 season which brings immediate uncertainty as the current affiliation with the Capitals is set to expire this summer.  I think the general opinion is that the affiliation will be extended as it makes sense for both parties...but until the paperwork is completed and signed, you never know.

In addition, the contracts for the Bears coaching staff, Mark French and Troy Mann, have expired.  Here is where I think you need to make a change.  I am not a fan of French's and think that his strategic skills could use some improving. 

But at the same time he has won a lot of games the past 2 seasons despite dealing with a bunch of injuries and recalls in each season.  So maybe he deserves another chance.  When he had a fully healthy team he won 60 games and a Calder Cup. 

Still, I won't be upset if they go a different way...but I can definitely see his contract being extended. 

This decision is not made by Doug Yingst exclusively though.  I am sure he gets a say, but the Capitals are also involved in this decision and they may desire to bring in a coach with a similar coaching style to whomever is behind the bench in Washington. 

We will find out sometime after the Caps postseason run is over...which hopefully doesn't end until June!

As for the players that will be and won't be back for 2012-13...below are a few lists detailing some information.  Keep in mind that any player under contract with Washington will not be in Hershey next season should the affiliation not be extended.

Players Under Contract With Washington for 2012-13:
Ryan Potulny
Cody Eakin
Garrett Mitchell
Mattias Sjogren
Patrick McNeill
Cameran Schilling
Brett Flemming
Tomas Kundratek
Philipp Grubauer
Brandon Anderson

Players Under Contract With Hershey for 2012-13:
David Civitarese
Barry Almeida
TJ Syner
Matt Pope
Julian Brouillette
Patrick Wellar

Washington Capitals Restricted Free Agents:
Mike Carman
Kevin Marshall


Not included on the above lists but also under contract for 2012-13 are Braden Holtby and Dmitry Orlov. I really doubt either player spends a minute in Hershey next season so for the purposes of this post I don't feel it is necessary to talk about them.


Let's assume that the Caps and Bears extend their affiliation agreement.  If that happens I think all of the players listed above will be in Hershey's training camp come September.  I don't see the Caps not tendering offers to Carman and Marshall and every other player is already under contract.

Now, you will notice that there are some big names not listed there.  Keith Aucoin, Chris Bourque, Jacob Micflikier, Boyd Kane, Dany Sabourin, and plenty more. 

I fully expect the Bears to sign a few of either these guys or players like them.  Hershey is always willing to spend some money of free agents and I don't expect the 75th anniversary season to be any different.

Aucoin, to me, is a lock to return.  The question is...does he go to Washington or Hershey?  Based on the minutes that Dale Hunter is giving him in the playoffs right now it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him spend at least parts of the season in Washington. 

The Bears will generally pay 1 or 2 players a decent amount of money to play in Hershey.  The advantage this year is that Ryan Potulny's contract is a 1-way deal meaning the Caps will pay him to play in Hershey should he be reassigned during the season.  That will free up some money for the Bears to spend on additional free agents.

I could obviously speculate for hours on what players the Bears will bring back or look at, but there would not be a science to any of it and it would all just be speculation and rumor starting.  I will say two things though...

1.  The defense is pretty much set.  With McNeill, Schilling, Kundratek, Wellar, Brouillette, and Flemming back and Marshall likely to be back you have your top 7 defensemen.  Patty McNeill will be considered a veteran exempt next season as well so you have a veteran presence already on the roster.  Don't expect too many signings along the blueline.

2.  They need a scorer.  One of the biggest problems this entire season was that there were too many passers on the roster and not enough shooters.  Guys were always looking to make the extra pass instead of taking an open shot.  Not saying guys couldn't shoot or score, but most of the guys were more interested in setting up their linemates than shooting themselves...or at least that's how it felt.  Maybe rookie Stanislav Galiev will help in that regard, but I think the Bears will go looking for a proven goal scorer in free agency.  Someone you look to in big games to come up with the big goals...such as a huge overtime goal in game 5 of the Calder Cup Finals.  Hypothetically speaking of course. 

For the second season in a row the offseason is going to be long.  Few answers about the roster will be resolved before July and actual hockey won't be back until October.  5 full months. 

I agree that we are spoiled as Bears fans...4 Calder Cup Finals in 5 years...but these long summers suck and I am okay with being spoiled.  Hopefully the roster put together for next season will allow us to enjoy Bears hockey well into June 2013.

Bears win...force Game 5 tonight

I had this whole post written up about last nights game...but then I realized...it's over.  It doesn't matter anymore.  One game is left to decide who moves on and who waits until next season.


I know this is NHL footage...but the idea is still the same:




And then there is this one...remember, the Bears are the underdogs tonight...but that doesn't mean anything until the game is done:
 


And finally...something more from OUR Hershey Bears...a couple of years ago the Bears backs were against the wall in the Calder Cup Finals. Down 2 games to none, headed for Texas. After a couple of victories in games 3 and 4 the Bears needed one more to avoid having to win two at home:


If you are going up to the game tonight...be loud. Many of us will be listening or watching on AHLLive and we want to hear Bears nation.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears win in OT...Game 4 on Friday

The Bears live to play another day.  Ryan Potulny's goal, 2:57 into overtime, finished off an up and down game for the Bears as they won for the first time March 28.

Hershey skated to a 2-0 lead after the first period on goals by DJ King and Cameron Schilling.  But Wilkes-Barre would get one back in the 2nd and the tying goal about 6 minutes into the 3rd period to make it a 2-2 game. 

The teams traded goals over the final 7 minutes of the 3rd period to force overtime where the Bears actually outshot the Pens 4-0 and picked up the win.

Yes it was a win.  Yes I am excited for game 4 on Friday night. 

But if the Bears intend to make this a real series and go back to Wilkes-Barre on Saturday, this needs to be the first step in the process.

Wilkes-Barre dominated the first few minutes of the game and it was beginning to look a lot like games 1 and 2 sounded.  Hershey couldn't get the puck out of their zone and had to block multiple shots and get saves from Dany Sabourin to stay even on the scoreboard.

The difference between the first 2 games of the series and last night?  Hershey scored first.  You could see the confidence grow when they got that goal and took their first lead of the series.  They started making crisper passes and seemed calmer with the puck. 

Unfortunately the Bears needed to readjust each period.  At the start of the 2nd and 3rd periods it was very similar.  Wilkes-Barre controlled the puck and Hershey couldn't get it out.  Poor clear attempts and hasty moves with the puck led to countless turnovers in their own end. 

In the 3rd period it cost them as Wilkes-Barre only left the offensive zone a couple of times in the first 6 minutes and picked up the tying goal at the end of that. 

But the Bears used the confidence they showed after scoring their first goal after each Wilkes-Barre tally and didn't let the game get away from them. 

It was an impressive performance considering the outcome of games 1 and 2. 

There is still work to be done though.

Today at practice I would have Mike Carman, Ryan Potulny, Andrew Carroll, and Cody Eakin working on faceoffs against each other for the entire practice. 

That was some of the worst faceoff performance I can remember seeing.  The AHL does not track faceoff stats so there is no telling how bad it really was but I would say Hershey won no more than 25% of the draws and that might be a high estimate.

Hershey overcame the problem last night thanks to a ton of blocked shots and Dany making some key saves...but if they continue to perform that poorly then they will struggle to compete in the coming game(s).

The other thing I was seeing involved the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton team speed.  After games 1 and 2 and even during the game last night I heard how much fast the Pens are then the Bears. 

I didn't see it.  Speed in sports is many times overrated. 

The reason the Pens appear faster than Hershey is because they are playing better positionally and executing their schemes better than the Bears are.  If you are lining up and rotating properly every time then you are going to look so much faster than the other team because you are always where the loose pucks are. 

And that's what happened for long stretches last night.  Wilkes-Barre would get the pucks in the zone and then move it with precision and confidence and would keep the puck in the zone for minutes at a time. 

Very rarely did you see the Pens make poor clearing passes or not have someone in the spot where a teammate expected them to be. 

Hershey?  How many times did you see clearing attempts blocked along the Bears or passes that were thrown to empty space as someone was out of position? 

I saw it quite a bit.  Wilkes-Barre's precision made the Bears look extremely disorganized.  Maybe the Bears weren't as disorganized as they looked at times...maybe the Pens were just that efficient.  But any way you look at, the Bears need to improve before tomorrow night.

Overall it was a good win.  An important win (obviously). 

But there is still improvements to be made and work to be done.  Wilkes-Barre's goaltending is not going to win them this or any series.  Hershey can (and did last night) take advantage of that...scoring 4 goals on only 22 shots. 

The Bears CAN win this series.  They just need to slow the game down (mentally) and improve their execution. 

Game 3 was a good first step.  Game 4 needs to go a step further.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears head to game 3 with no room for error

I am not sure what to say about the series so far.  Friday morning I was relatively confident that the Bears could win the series.  They were healthier and getting help from Washington leading into game 1.

Then Wilkes-Barre came out and dominated the first period and the Bears found themselves trying to come from behind.

Saturday morning I was still confident that Hershey could earn a split in Wilkes-Barre (which is all I expected from the start), but definitely less confident than I was on Friday.

And then I turned the game on and listened as the game went to 3-0 about 12 minutes into the first period.  I turned off the internet broadcast at that point so I didn't hear the 4th goal...or the 5th, 6th, or 7th either. 

So far the Bears have scored 3 goals to the Pens 10.  Call me crazy, but I don't think the Bears will get it done with numbers like that.

This morning, I am even less confident in the Bears ability to win this series as I was Saturday morning.  I would imagine there are many of you that feel the same way.

And I am not going to lie to you...there aren't many positives to take away from the two games in Wilkes-Barre. 

Special teams...the Bears are 0-7 on the power play while the Pens are 4-11.  That's a 36.4% conversion rate for anyone keeping track at home.

Shots...Hershey has managed 36 shots...total.  The Pens have a much more normal 56 in two games.

Goals...we already talked about that.

Honestly, there are only 2 positives or maybe more accurately, 2 possible bright spots for the Bears as they head into game 3.

One...things can't get any worse.  Hershey has sustained little offense and hasn't been able to slow down the Pens at all. 

Two...the Caps are headed to a game 7.  Should they lose on Wednesday and the Bears win then Hershey would likely see reinforcements for game 4 on Friday.

But the Bears have to win game 3 first.  And they aren't alone.  6 of the AHL's first round series have started off 2-0.  Two of those series have played their 3rd game with Connecticut winning and sweeping Bridgeport out of the playoffs and Houston pulling out a game 3 win to make their series 2-1 with two to play.

Maybe we shouldn't be surprised.  Cody Eakin and Jacob Micflikier hadn't played in weeks and Dany Sabourin hadn't played in a while either.  Consider too that numerous Bears, including Chris Bourque and Ryan Potulny, had at least taken a maintenance day within the week to rest. 

Some Bears were rusty while others were banged up.  Had this been during the regular season we likely would have written it off as a couple games to get their legs back. 

Maybe when the Bears come out on Wednesday they will be healthier and more ready to play.  The players that haven't played have no gotten two games under their belt and will likely have a few more practices coming up.  For those Bears who have been banged up, they now have a few days to rest up before the next game.

Can the Bears do it?  Can they come out on Wednesday with a renewed energy and focus?  Can they extend the series and put some doubt in the minds of Pens players?

I think they can.  One game at a time.  Win on Wednesday.  That's it...nothing else to consider.

Come on out on Wednesday and cheer on the Bears.  There will surely be plenty of Pens fans in attendance so let's make sure they are seen and not heard. 

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears drop game 1

3 shots in the first period.  That's what the Bears managed last night in Wilkes-Barre. 

Down 2-0 entering the third and the Bears managed.....5 more.

Combining the second period you get a 20 shot total for the Bears.  

You aren't going to win many games with those kinds of shot totals.  The fact that the Penguins didn't allow many shots probably shouldn't come as a huge surprise...they finished #1 in the AHL in shots allowed per game.

But this is the playoffs.  Shots are going to be hard to come by and you have to make the most of them.  The Bears didn't do that last night as they went 0-3 on the powerplay and based on Scott Stuccio's call I never got the feeling that the Bears were even threatening the Pens in the offensive end.

It was the type of performance you would expect from a team riding an 8-game losing streak...not from one that hopes to play late into Spring.

The return to the lineup of Cody Eakin and Jacob Micflikier has given every Bears fan hope that they can win some games and move onto the next round.  It didn't happen last night, but maybe that was to be expected as guys were out of the lineup for a little while and it takes a little time to re-adjust.  Tim Leone said that after the first 30 minutes the Bears played better...so maybe that is a good omen.

And they are saying the right things...

“We can’t sit back and wait for them to kind of dictate how the play is going to go,” Bears defenseman Sean Collins said. “We have to be the ones dictating the play. Once we started playing the right way and doing the right things, keeping things simple, getting pucks deep, then we started putting some pressure on them.”

Hopefully game 2 is different.  Game 2 NEEDS to be different.

First things first...the Bears need to get more than 20 shots on goal.  They finished the regular season averaging a little over 30 per game.  And they were #2 in the AHL in shooting percentage at 10.3%.  So if they get 30 shots a game...they should get 3 goals.

That would have been good enough to more than likely force overtime and then who knows.

But the shots total are only the first stat that Hershey needs to change.

The Bears and Baby Pens have played 5 times previously in the Calder Cup playoffs....the winner of game 1 has won each of those.

It's time for the Bears to keep that streak at 5.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears vs Penguins...first one to 3 wins series

 

Typically in sports, questions about teams are answered during the regular season.  Unfortunately, in minor league sports, things don't always work out the way they are expected to.  With recalls, loans, and trades, sometimes teams never get 'answers'. 
At the beginning of the season the Bears looked like a legitimate Calder Cup contender.  They had 2 goalies who would start for most teams, a defense that, while not exceptional, was definitely strong enough, and an offense that most considered the best in the league. 

Now, the Bears have two goalies that have combined for 7 starts in the AHL this season.  Those 7 starts have resulted in 7 losses by the way. 

The offense has been decimated by recalls and injuries the past month or so.  Keith Aucoin and Cody Eakin remain on recall to Washington and it is unlikely that either will be back until at least game 3 next Wednesday night...if then.  Young Eakin hasn't been in the Caps lineup so far this postseason so the option is there to send him back to Hershey for the playoffs.  However, I think that is unlikely. 

In addition to those two, Jacob Micflikier hasn't played since March 9 and Boyd Kane, DJ King, and Graham Mink have missed games the past few weeks with injuries.  Ryan Potulny has also been banged up in some games and hasn't been practicing 100% of the time either.  And Christian Hanson was injured in a game on February 18 and I don't believe he has done anything since then.

The Bears roster of late has looked more like a college team than an AHL team as a number of players were signed to amateur tryout agreements and were given a rare opportunity at playing time with meaningful games left to play.  Some of the guys have looked good...others have struggled. 

The good news is that the players in Hershey seem to be getting healthy and fewer of the college guys are expected to play meaningful minutes in the postseason.  Micflikier has practiced recently and King, Mink, and Kane all played in games this past weekend.  Hanson is another story, but apparently a return has not been ruled out.  As of Tuesday, he is officially out for games 1 and 2...anything after that is a guess I would imagine.

So the question is...are the Bears good enough to challenge for their 12th Calder Cup this spring? 

As it stands now...no.  The roster as of right now is definitely not good enough.

How about when all the players in Hershey are healthy and a goalie returns from Washington? 

Still...no.

I think the Bears can give the Baby Pens a run with the roster they have now.  As long as they get healthy and a goalie returns.

But you can't convince me that they will get through round 2 without reinforcements from Washington.

That isn't happening until game 3 at best.  So let's not get ahead of ourselves.  The immediate concern is the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.  The first round, best of 5 (still think that is stupid) series begins this Friday.  In case you haven't seen it, here is the schedule:

• Game 1 - Friday, April 20 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre
• Game 2 - Saturday, April 21 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre
• Game 3 - Wednesday, April 25 - 7:00 - in Hershey
• Game 4 - Friday, April 27 - 7:00 - in Hershey (if necessary)
• Game 5 - Saturday, April 28 - 7:05 - in Wilkes-Barre (if necessary)

The Bears and Pens played 12 times during the regular season.  Wilkes-Barre won 7, the Bears 5.  Some of those were overtime or shootout, but honestly...who cares.  A loss is a loss.

It was a pretty even series too.  4 of the games went to extra time and 9 of the games were decided by 2 goals or less, with 6 being decided by 1 goal.

Both teams scored 38 goals, 3.2 per game.  Scoring was higher in Hershey than in Wilkes-Barre but again scoring was even...the Pens scored 22 to Hershey's 21 while at Giant Center, but the Bears scored 17 to the Pens 16 in Wilkes-Barre.

So now the differences:

Hershey was the stronger team in the first period...outscoring the Pens by 5 overall (2 in Hershey, 3 in WB).  But the Penguins were the stronger team in the second period...outscoring the Bears by 4 (all in Hershey).  The third period was pretty even with 14 Bears goals to 15 Wilkes-Barre goals....both teams were better on their home ice in the third period.

And special teams was definitely different.  Hershey converted on 31% of their power plays on home ice but only 17.1% on the road.  Wilkes-Barre only went 11.1% at Giant Center and a slightly better 17.6% on home ice.

That's the season series in a nutshell.  It was closer than it felt because of Wilkes-Barre's domination the past couple of seasons.  Up until February 5 the Bears hadn't beaten the Pens in Hershey in multiple seasons.  Then they won the last 2 home games against the Pens including a 5-1 beating on February 12 (after Aucoin's recall). 

Let's dig a little deeper and figure out which team has the upper hand going into the series:

Goaltending

Wilkes-Barre has their top 2 goalies ready to go.  Scott Munroe went 19-10-3 on the season with a 2.52 goals against average and a save percentage of .907.  Brad Thiessen went 23-15-2 with a 2.82 gaa and .887 save percentage. 

Thiessen played in 9 of the 12 games against Hershey this season going 5-3-1 with a 2.86 gaa and .884 save percentage.  Pretty similar to the rest of his season.  He was in goal for both of Hershey's blowout wins as well.

Munroe only played in 3 games and went 2-0-1.  But his measurables were worse then Thiessen's...3.48 gaa and .878 save percentage. 

The expectation is that Thiessen will get the first chance, but who knows for sure.

In Hershey things are a little bit of a question mark.  Obviously.  But we aren't going to consider anything except for Dany Sabourin and Braden Holtby.  Neuvy practiced in full yesterday so there is a good chance he will be ready to back up Holtby tonight against the Bruins which would allow Sabs to come back to Hershey.

Dany went 18-12-5 with a 2.76 gaa and .909 save percentage on the season.  Unfortunately he was weaker against the Pens...6 games played, 5 started...4 of those were losses (one in a shootout) and only one was a win...that was the first game of the season.  His measurables?  4.07 gaa with a .855 gaa.

Now, Dany has been better of late.  In March and April he was 8-3-2 with a 2.17 gaa and .926 save percentage.  Those are good numbers.

Obviously Dany is capable of being the guy...but Braden has been a stud against the Pens this year. 

Should Braden come back for game 3...here are his numbers against the Pens:

7 starts...4-3...gaa of 2.00 and a save percentage of .926.  And he was exceptional in 3 starts in Wilkes-Barre...1.44 gaa and a save percentage of .939.

Unfortunately Braden won't be in Hershey for games 1 and 2...at least.  So...

Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.

Defense

Defense is such a hard thing to judge.  They have so much influence over the goaltending numbers and yet, there is really no way to truly judge a defenseman at this level without looking at every single game and every single shift. 

Wilkes-Barre is expected to run with a group of defensemen that looks like this:  Alexadre Picard, Robert Bortuzzo, Cody Wild, Alex Grant, Joey Mormina, and Philip Samuelsson.  Simon Despres would be in the lineup but he was just recalled to Pittsburgh and may or may not be back. 

Combined those 6 players (not counting Despres) played 47 games against the Bears this year, scored 4 goals, added 11 assists, and finished a combined +2.  Individually, Alex Grant was the best with a +7 rating and 6 assists in 9 games against the Bears this season.  Bortuzzo played in only 6 games and finished with 1 assist and a -3 rating. 

There isn't an offensive stud among them and the Pens finished the season middle of the pack (15th) in goals against per game.  An average group I believe.

Hershey is a different story.  We are going to look at the Bears top 5 defenseman as those are definitive.  Patrick McNeill, Kevin Marshall, Sean Collins, Julien Brouillette, and Tomas Kundratek.  The 6th will probably be Cameron Schilling, but I could see Patrick Wellar get a chance as well. 

Looking at the top 5 though...47 games played against the Pens...8 goals, 13 assists and a combined +1 rating.  McNeill is actually the teams 3rd leading scorer against the Pens this year with 1 goal and 9 assists in 12 games.  But he was a -6 and 8 of those points were on the power play...which tend to shrink in the playoffs.

Kundratek was pretty solid as well with 4 goals and a +6 rating in 8 games against the Pens in 2011-12.  Wellar, should he get a jersey, was a +3 with 2 assists as well so he did well. 

Overall, the Bears defense...I think...is better than Wilkes-Barre's.  Especially when you consider the more aggressive system in place that calls for the defensemen to pinch more often. 

Advantage...Hershey.

Forwards

The Baby Pens leading scorer on the season was Ben Street who had 27 goals and 30 assists and averaged .80 points per game.  The Bears had 5 players (including Aucoin) who averaged .88 or better per game.  So keep that in mind when looking at the numbers below...Hershey is a bit more top heavy than the Pens.

Wilkes-Barre saw 9 different forwards play in 10 or more games against the Bears this season.  All 9 of them are expected to get jersey's during the playoffs as well.  The anticipated line combinations for the Pens are (the names listed in italics are the 9 who played in 10+ against Hershey):

Nick Petersen - Ben Street - Geoff Walker
Bryan Lerg - Cal O’Reilly - Paul Thompson
Jason Williams - Brian Gibbons - Colin McDonald
Ryan Craig - Zach Sill - Brandon DeFazio

Eric Tangradi is a candidate to return should the big Pens get eliminated this weekend, but he surely won't be in the lineup for game 1.

11 of the 12 players mentioned above scored at least one goal against the Bears this season.  Only Cal O'Reilly, who only played 1 game against the Bears this season, didn't score. 

No player had more than 3 goals but 7 of the 12 had 3 goals (Peterson, Street, McDonald, Walker, Williams, Lerg, DeFazio). 

The leading scorers against the Bears were Street (3g, 8a), McDonald (3g, 7a), and Lerg (3g, 8a). 

Just a note...Tangradi scored 3 and added 3 assists in only 7 games against the Bears. 

The Pens have had a very similar lineup and has gotten production from all of them against the Bears this season. 

Hershey on the other hand has seen many different players make appearances.  But there has been some consistency as well as 7 players have appeared in at least 10 of the games between the teams.  Although one of those players is Christian Hanson...who isn't going to play in games 1 and 2.

Hershey's anticipated lines...keep in mind that this is my interpretation based on practice sessions...are (again, players with 10+ games played in the season series are in italics):

Kyle Greentree - Ryan Potulny - Graham Mink
Boyd Kane - Jacob Micflikier - Chris Bourque
Barry Almeida - Mike Carman - Matt Pope
DJ King - Andrew Carroll - Garrett Mitchell

Hershey does not have the scoring balance of the Pens though.  Only 8 of the above players have scored a goal against the Pens in 2011-12 and only 3 of them (Greentree, Micflikier, and Potulny) have 3 or more goals.  And Greentree got 2 of his in the last game between the teams.

Leading scorers in the series (among forwards) are Bourque (2g, 10a) and Potulny (6g, 6a).  Kane, Micflikier, and Greentree all have 6 points.

Just a note...Aucoin had 2 goals and 5 assists in 8 games and Eakin had 3 goals and 1 assist in 7 games this season.  Should they return.

Advantage...Wilkes-Barre.

Random Stats and Thoughts

Scoring Margin:

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Overtime	Overall
Bears	+18	+9	-4	-3	+19
Pens	+8	+6	+2	+2	+20

This is a bit different than the season series between the teams which saw Wilkes-Barre play much better in the 2nd period and Hershey was actually better in the 3rd than their season overall. 

What to take from this...minimal...but keep it in mind if/when the Bears jump out to a first period lead.  They do that often and many times fail to hold on.

Special Teams:

Team	PP	PK	PP vs	PK vs
Bears	25.5%	84.4%	23.4%	85.2
Pens	18.8%	81.6%	14.8%	76.6%

The first two columns are overall for the season.  Last 2 are for the season series.

The Bears had the #1 ranked power play during the season and their penalty kill was #4. The Pens had the #10 power play and #22 penalty kill.

So you would think that the Bears would have a large advantage here...right?  Well...check out the numbers for the last 10 games:

Team	PP	PK
Bears	20.5%	80.5%
Pens	20.9%	88.4%

Of late the Pens have been very good both a man up and a man down.  In fact, it gets even better for the Pens.  On home ice (which they get 3 times, if necessary, this series) they have faced 22 short handed situations over the past 5 home games...they have killed off 21 of them.  That's 95.5% kill rate.  Pretty good.

More bad news for the Bears?  They are only scoring on 16% of their power plays at home in the last 5 home games and are allowing power play goals on 25% of the allowed chances on the road in their last 5 road games. 

Obviously you can throw many of these numbers out the window when the goalie situation calms down in Hershey and (if) guys like Aucoin return from Washington.

But it is something to keep in mind.

Record When Scoring First:

Team	# FG	Record	Win %
Bears	45	24-12-4-5	.533
Pens	39	29-7-1-2	.744

Nobody scored the first goal more than Hershey this season.  And no one had more losses (including SO and OT) after doing so than the Bears.  Wilkes-Barre, meanwhile, was top 5 in winning the games where they scored the first goal.

In the season series the Pens scored the first goal 5 times and won 4 of those games.  The Bears scored the first goal 7 times and won only 4 of those.  So the season averages pretty much held up.

Home vs Road:

Team	Home	Road	Home Vs	Road Vs
Bears	20-11-2-5	18-15-2-3	2-2-1-1	3-3-0-0
Pens	18-16-2-2	26-9-0-3	3-2-0-1	4-1-0-1

Here is the great equalizer for the Bears in my opinion.  The Pens are simply put...not good at home.  Most teams are great at home, average on the road...like the Bears.  But the Pens are not.  Under .500 winning percentage at home on the season and only .500 vs the Bears this season.

So it really is strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness in this series as far as home/road performance goes.  Hershey is strongest at home, Wilkes-Barre strongest on the road.  Hershey is weaker on the road, WB is weaker at home.

I honestly think that this helps the Bears more than anything else.  Knowing that they can win in their building will definitely help heading into the series. 

Will it be the difference?  Maybe.

My Pick

Tim Leone is a true journalist so he has to keep a somewhat subjective view of the team and the league.  He picked the Pens to beat the Bears in 5 games. 

I am not a journalist and don't have to keep a subjective view.  I am picking the Bears in 4.  And here is why...

The Caps will lose 2 of their next 3 and will be eliminated from the NHL playoffs by the end of the day on Sunday.  This is not necessarily what I want (I am rooting for the Caps every second), but without Nicky Backstrom tonight and with the Bruins capitalizing more often on the Caps defensive and goaltending lapses, I don't see this series going 7 games.  And I don't see the Caps winning it.

So, Hershey would split the games in weekend with Jacob Micflikier playing 2nd line center (definite offensive improvement over what the other options have been) and then Aucoin and Eakin will return for games 3, 4, and if necessary, 5.

Earlier this week I said that Hershey's biggest problem was at 2nd line center...not anymore in my opinion. The last time Hershey had a offensively gifted 2nd line center...the Bears won 7 straight. 

Now, if the Caps at least force a game 7 or should they win the series outright, I think the Bears would need the 5th game just to have a chance at the series. 

The Bears are a much better team then they have been the past couple of weeks.  They will show it in round 1.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!

Bears entering playoffs in need of help

8 straight losses.  The last 4 in regulation. 

Outscored 14-7 over the weekend.

On Sunday, the starting goalie for the Bears was Scott Greenham.  Greenham was recently known as the starting goaltender for the University of Alaska-Fairbanks.  He recently completed his senior season, during which he played in 33 games going 11-18-4 with a 2.47 goals against average and a .905 save percentage.

Obviously the record and stats are as much about the team as they are the goalie, but did you really think that this could be the goalie for the first round of the AHL playoffs?

At the beginning of the season I felt as though the goaltending would be the Bears biggest question for the playoffs.  I didn't realize I was such a prophet.

Braden Holtby is the new #1 goalie in Washington and Dany Sabourin is the current #2. 

But the goaltending issues are very possible to be resolved by the time game 1 rolls around on Friday.  Michal Neuvirth is getting better and seems likely to be able to at least back up the apparently 'unflappable' Holtby by then.

Which means Dany will be back in Hershey and the goaltending isn't as much of a question anymore.

Does that make you feel better though?

Based on the last 8 games I would say the Bears problems rest somewhere other that between the pipes.  Sure Daren Machesney was brutal this past weekend, but Dany played in 4 of the last 8 games...and remember, they were all losses.

So the Bears problem is located somewhere in the remaining 5 guys on the ice. 

The defense is healthy.  Kevin Marshall returned to the lineup this weekend after being disciplined by the coaching staff for some questionable behavior.  Which means the defense is pretty much at full strength.  While not perfect, not really a problem either.

So that leaves the forwards.  Graham Mink, Boyd Kane, and DJ King returned to the lineup this weekend after missing time.  Minker was out for a while and getting him back is definitely a big deal. 

But it didn't exactly lead to offensive production this weekend.  Mink recorded no points and finished the weekend a -1 with 7 shots.  Kane and King, more role players than Mink, weren't much better.

That leaves Jacob Micflikier as the only Bear who is looking to make his return to the lineup in the first round.  He practiced fully last week but did not make the trip over the weekend.  More than likely that was a precautionary measure more than anything and he will likely be ready to go for Friday night.

Does that solve the problem? 

Not in my eyes.  Getting Miclikier back is definitely a big deal and will absolutely help, but Hershey's problem right now is down the middle.

Currently there are 3 centers on the Bears roster, according to the team roster on AHL.com.  They are Ryan Potulny, Mike Carmen, and Andrew Carroll.  David Civitarese has been playing 4th line center of late so he would be the 4th center for the sake of this argument.

Carroll played in 68 games this season for the Bears and he was absolutely a key member in many regards.  He is a good defensive player who kills penalties and brings a high energy game to the lineup.  But he scored 1 goal and added only 5 assists in those 68 games.  He is currently the 3rd line center. 

At the beginning of the season Christian Hanson and Cody Eakin were playing 3rd line center.  No offense to Carroll...that is a downgrade.

Carmen joined the team in February and played 32 games for the Bears.  He has 7 goals and 5 assists in those games.  Solid for a 3rd line center.  But he is currently the 2nd line center.

At the beginning of the season the centers were Keith Aucoin, Potulny, Eakin/Hanson, and Carroll.  Obviously Potulny and Aucoin are in a different class so I won't even discuss them, but let's take a look at what Christian and Cody did while they were with the Bears. 

Eakin had 13 goals and 14 assists in 43 games.  Hanson had 10 goals and 11 assists in 51 games.  As I said, Carmen's numbers aren't terrible...for a 3rd line center.

Unfortunately for the Bears they are going to have to figure out some way to get through at least the first 2 games against the Pens without a true 2nd-line center.  With the Capitals win over the Bruins on Saturday it guarantees that the series will now go through at least Saturday.  Hershey visits Wilkes-Barre this Friday and Saturday for games 1 and 2.

It would be nice if the Caps would send Cody Eakin back for the Bears games.  He isn't playing for the Caps and while it would surely be nice to have him for practice, I can't imagine there will be much practicing for the Caps during those couple of days.  But I am sure as hell not going to hold my breathe.

I am pretty sure that Coach French also recognizes the problem as last week, according to one of Tim Leone's practice updates, Jacob Micflikier was working as the 2nd line center. 

That might work out as well as Micflik can surely play a Cody Eakin like game.  But it would just be a short term solution.

You could make the argument that the center problem is just a minor hiccup.  But just so everyone is aware, the Bears are 1-6-0-2 since the Bears last had a legitimate 2nd line center in the lineup.  That was Eakin and the only win came against the AHL's cellar-dwelling Binghamton Senators. 

The Bears are going to have to buckle down defensively and play a solid all around game while capitalizing on their opportunities.  I fully expect the Pens to outshoot and out-chance the Bears on Friday and Saturday.  Hopefully the Bears can make the most of turnovers and power plays and get a few lucky bounces.

It's going to be a tough series considering the Bears personnel limitations currently.  But I still have confidence.  Bears in 4.

I will have a full blown series preview (or multiple maybe) later this week so definitely check back often. 

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

Final 3 Games Coming Up

The Bears have 3 games left in their regular season.  This Friday they visit Portland, Saturday at Manchester, and the final regular season game is Sunday at Worcester.

After that the playoffs will begin.  The Bears first round opponent has not yet been determined though.  Everything seems to be setting up for a Wilkes-Barre/Scranton - Hershey Bears first round matchup, but it definitely is not set in stone.

Considering how the Bears have played of late (5 straight losses) there is no way you can definitively say that the Bears will get the #5 spot in the Eastern Conference. 

Currently the Bears sit there in 5th.  5 points behind Wilkes-Barre and 4 points ahead of Connecticut.  The chances of the Bears getting the 4th seed are slim to none.  They would have to win out and have Wilkes-Barre lose the rest of their games.  The Baby Pens are 7-3 in their last 10...I don't expect them to go on a 3 game losing streak to close the season.

The Bears falling to 6th seems more possible, although still not likely.  The Whale would need to win their last 3 while the Bears would need to lose their last 3.  The only reason this is more possible is because the Bears haven't exactly been playing well of late. 

And if they run the same lineup that they did on Sunday, for the rest of the season, no one will be surprised if they lose all three games.  (Just a note...I don't hate that lineup, its just that you aren't going to see a lot of scoring from a lineup featuring half a dozen recent college graduates.  They hustle and play hard, but the skill isn't quite there.)

Sure, there is a possible benefit to dropping to 6th for Hershey.  They would get the winner of the Northeast division, currently the Bridgeport Sound Tigers (although Connecticut still has a shot too) instead of the rival Penguins.

Obviously, at first glance you would think this is a good thing.  Both Bridgeport and Connecticut will finish with fewer points than the Pens and not many people would mistake either the Tigers or Whale for a better team than Wilkes-Barre.

But, there are three things to keep in mind here...

1.  Hershey only went 1-3 against Connecticut this season.  And if Hershey does fall to 6th, behind the Whale, there is the distinct possibility that the Whale also passes Bridgeport for the division crown and the 3rd seed.  Hershey is 2-1-0-1 against Bridgeport so should the Tigers hang on to the division lead this would likely be a better matchup for Hershey.

2.  If Hershey does finish as the 6-seed and gets by the Northeast champ in round 1 it would likely set up a Norfolk-Hershey 2nd round.  Personally, if I am the Bears and I was confident in a Calder Cup run I would prefer to wait until the Eastern Conference finals to play the team that hasn't lost in over 2 months. 

Sure, as the 5-seed the Bears are also in line to get the Admirals in round 2, but the chances of a lower seed winning grow substantially if the 6th seed is someone other than Hershey.  Meaning, I expect that the Whale's chances of beating the Tigers in the 6/3 matchup are much better than any 7-seed beating the St. Johns IceCaps. 

3.  Is Wilkes-Barre really that tough of a matchup?  Sure the rivalry is intense and the Baby Pens have had the Bears number for much of the last 2 seasons, but are the Pens good enough to win a best of 5 series?  Hershey went 5-5-1-1 against the Baby Pens this season.  That includes last weekends loss when the Bears were a shell of their true selves. 

When the Bears are healthy, which they will be much closer to 100% healthy by the time the playoffs start, things are much different and the Bears are capable of beating anyone.

In addition, the Pens are a bad home team.  So for them to get home-ice is not that much of a disadvantage for the Bears.  The Baby Pens are 25th in the AHL in winning percentage at home this season, winning only 47.2% of their home games.  The Bears were the AHL's 10th best team in regards to winning percentage on the road this season, winning 51.4% of their games. 

It is true that Hershey is better at home and the Pens are better on the road, but all I am saying is that Hershey is a better road team than the Pens are a home team.  So, considering that 3 of the first round games are likely to be played in Wilkes-Barre, the Bears are in good shape there.


No matter what though the Bears will only be competitive in the playoffs if they are healthy.  And there is definite good news on that front.  Graham Mink, Jacob Micflikier, Boyd Kane, and DJ King all practiced on Tuesday.  Whether they play this weekend or not is not clear as of right now, but they should all be ready for the playoffs which is where the real importance lies. 

In addition to that, Michal Neuvirth is expected to be ready for the NHL playoffs and will make the trip to Boston with the Caps.  That means that Dany Sabourin will be back in Hershey for the AHL playoffs.  The chances of Braden Holtby returning before either the Caps are eliminated or the second round, should the Caps eliminate the Bruins, are slim to none as Tomas Vokoun is still a ways off from returning. 

As for Keith Aucoin, Cody Eakin, and Dmitry Orlov....you won't see them in Hershey until the Caps are eliminated.  The first round series with Boston goes like this...Thursday, Saturday, Monday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Wednesday.  That means the earliest the Caps could be eliminated is next Thursday night. 

Since an opponent for the Bears first round series is still undecided there is no word on a playoff schedule either.  My guess is that the Bears/Pens season would either start next Wednesday or Friday, at the latest.  So, chances are Coiner, Eakin, and Orlov won't be in Hershey for the start of the series.  However, they could be back for the end depending on the success that Washington has.

I really believe the Bears have the talent to win the Calder Cup.  The first step is to get the guys in house healthy, which is occurring.  That is priority 1.  No matter what happens with Washington, the Bears can be successful in the playoffs with the guys they have in house.

However, I think the Bears will fail to advance too far in the Calder Cup playoffs without another center in the lineup.  Right now the depth chart at center looks like this Ryan Potulny - Mike Carmen - Andrew Carroll.  While I love what Carmen has done recently and I love the hustle Carroll displays...neither are going to provide enough offense to carry the team in the playoffs.

Don't think for a second that it was a coincidence that Hershey's 7 game winning streak ended and their 5 game losing streak started as soon as their #2 center, Cody Eakin, was recalled to Washington a couple of weeks ago.  The items are directly related.

Until Hershey sees another center return to the lineup they will struggle to get past a team such as Norfolk.  So, if you are hoping to see the Bears win their 12th Calder Cup, you should be hoping for Christian Hanson to return from his wrist injury (reportedly mid-May as of now, by the way) or a early exit for the Caps and a return to Hershey of Eakin and Aucoin.

If either of those happens...even Norfolk will have had a hard time beating the Bears.