Tuesday, January 13, 2009

What about the next 40?

Yesterday I looked at the first 40 games of the season and gave my midseason awards. This team is obviously talented and are obviously one of the best teams in the league. The fact that they have 28 wins in 40 games is remarkable and puts them on pace for 56 wins this season. That would be impressive and would break the previous record of 51 set in the 06-07 season.

Other records that are potentially breakable this season include the goals record which is currently 53. Alexandre Giroux has 28 which puts him on pace for 56 as well.

The most points for the team in one season. The record is 114 in 06-07. This team is on pace for 114 which would give them the tie.

Technically Keith Aucoin COULD challenge the records for assists and points but it is unlikely. The records stand at 125 points and 89 assists in a season. Currently Aucoin has 37 assists and 51 points. IF Giroux remains in Hershey for the entire second half then MAYBE Coiner would have a shot.

I think this goes without saying but this is a special Bears team. But there are things to watch for in 09 that will determine their success come spring.

1. Establish a number 1 goaltender.

This has been started by the team as Simeon Varlamov has been the main goaltender for the past month or so. Unfortunately he had a very rough start on Sunday which allows questions about his consistency to remain. Daren Machesney was playing very well prior to Saturday night when he also had a very rough go of it.

One of these 2 needs to step up and show consistency and leadership on the back end. If the players out front now they have a reliable goalie back there then they can focus more on the other team and scoring goals.

In the playoffs having a number 1 goaltender is critical. You can't be changing goalie's every game and then changing back when they have a bad game. At least that is my opinion. So hopefully one of the two guys here steps up and takes the position as his own.

2. Washington Capitals health.

Obviously this has been an important topic so far this season. Multiple Bears have seen time with the Caps and some remain on recall or are only a move away from heading to DC. There is nothing that can be done to prevent injuries but this is an important part of the team's success.

The other think to keep in mind is Karl Alzner. Currently he is with the Caps but when Tom Poti returns from injury Alzner is possibly the odd man out and could be back in Hershey. And also keep in mind that Brian Pothier is making progress and could get clearance to play this season. That would completely disrupt the salary cap situation and you could see a trade which could result in a Bear headed to DC permanently.

3. The Health of the Bears.

Certain players on this Bears team are somewhat injury prone like Dean Arsene. Other players are currently out with no timetable for return, Jay Beagle and Grant McNeill. What happens when those players return? Who becomes the scratches and who plays?

And on top of that it has become apparent that Alexandre Giroux is crucial to this teams success. The team can not afford to lose him or probably Keith Aucoin to injury. Without them the defense and goaltending would have to step up and prove their worth and win some games for the team.

4. Roster issues.

This category has to do with the return of McNeill and Beagle and potentially Alzner. If all those players return and the team stays healthy you have the problem of who to play and who to sit. The problem with sitting guys is that you lose certain things. And it can result in locker room turmoil.

Kip Brennan was just brought in to basically take over for McNeill. What happens when McNeill comes back? Is Brennan done for the year? Neither player will probably play much in the playoffs but the stretch run could be critical in this division.

Coach Woods is going to have to make some decisions if all the pieces fall into place. But sitting Beagle or Joudrey seems counter-productive with what this team needs. And sitting a guy like Laing too much is the same deal. But do you sit Gordon? or the rookies? There are no sure things right now but this teams chemistry could be disrupted if guys aren't playing.

5. Players need to step up at end of season and playoffs.

Traditionally in the playoffs teams are able to shut down a top scorer or two. It happens all the time in the NHL and happened for multiple seasons with the Chicago Wolves until last year.

Obviously the MAG line would be the targeted line of an opposing coach. Other players have to become more consistent and more productive. For a while this season the rookie line was scoring every game but they have since cooled off a lot! Chris Bourque and Andrew Gordon have not scored like they have in the past and have not been the most consistent in their careers. Kyle Wilson is the only other consistent scorer on this team and that won't be enough.

I am not saying these guys don't play hard or try every game. BUT the playoffs are a different time and these guys need to figure it out before than. We have seen what can happen when Giroux is either shut down or not there. Many times in those situations this team struggles to get on the board. If that happens in the playoffs it could be an earlier than expected golf season here in Hershey.

............................

All of these things are worth keeping an eye on but the fact remains that this team is good. I think if you ask anyone on the team or within the organization (as well as the fans) that they expect to win it all. Not saying they are over confident or unaware of the challenge but I would hope that they believe they can. Which to most of us then means anything short of a championship would be a disappointment.

Last season was tough. Having to watch the team get beaten down in the first round and have the summer come early. Personally....I don't want to see that again. I am hoping and expecting to be celebrating in Hershey in mid June!

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

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