73 down, 3 to go

3 games remain on the Hershey schedule. 

After 73 games the Bears are an unspectacular 34-30-3-6 (77 points).  Some might classify that as being above .500, but to me they are actually 34-39 since the last 2 numbers are still losses, they just come at a different time.

But all of that is meaningless right now. 

3 games.  Win those 3 games and chances are pretty solid that the Bears would make the playoffs. 

Lose 1 and chances are they are done. 

Really is quite that simple.

Let's see what Hershey needs to do to pass each team ahead of them in the standings that hasn't clinched a playoff spot.

Portland Pirates - 6th place - 83 points - 34 ROW - 3 games to play

Hershey can't pass them.  The first tiebreaker, whether it be 2 or 3 teams is number of wins minus shootout wins...or Regulation Wins + Overtime Wins (ROW).  Hershey currently has 30 ROW.  If they won all 3 games in regulation they would have 83 points, which is good enough to tie Portland, but only 33 ROW. 

Norfolk Admirals - 7th place - 79 points - 30 ROW - 3 games to play

This is the most complicated of the scenarios.  Norfolk has to lose at least one game.  If they lose 1 and Hershey wins all 3 the teams would be tied with 83 points.  But, assuming Hershey wins their games in regulation or overtime, the Bears would finish with more ROW. 

If Norfolk doesn't lose (they play at Syracuse, at Albany, and at Providence) then Hershey can't pass them.  And if they lose twice, Hershey only has to win 2 to tie them. 

Connecticut Whale - 8th place - 79 points - 33 ROW - 2 games to play

Because they only have 2 games to play this seems like the Bears best bet to make the playoffs.  But I think Norfolk is the more likely chance.  IF Connecticut wins their last 2 and Hershey wins their 3 then the teams would be tied.  BUT, unless the Whale wins both of their games in a shootout, Hershey can't even tie them in ROW.  Meaning that Connecticut would be in the playoffs and Hershey wouldn't.

The Whale plays Friday at Albany and Saturday at Portland.  Both tough, yet winnable games.  If Hershey hopes to pass the Whale then Connecticut has to lose at least 1. 

Manchester Monarchs - 9th place - 77 points - 33 ROW - 3 games to play

Obviously beating the Monarchs in the standings is only the first step to the playoffs since that would only get the Bears to 9th, but it is still a team that stands between Hershey and the postseason.

Luckily, the Bears and Monarchs play Sunday evening at Giant Center.  And it could mean everything...or nothing.

Let's assume that Manchester wins at Binghamton and at Wilkes-Barre on Friday and Saturday night.  And let's assume that Hershey beats Adirondack and Binghamton in their Friday/Saturday road trip.  That would leave both Hershey and Manchester with 81 points heading into Sunday. 

NOW, let's assume that Norfolk loses Friday (very possible)...then the winner of the Bears/Monarchs game would likely get the 8 seed while the loser goes home. 

There is a chance that both teams could get into the playoffs but that is complicated and brings in lots of what-ifs.


The easiest path to the playoffs for Hershey is through Norfolk.  The Admirals have 2 very tough games this weekend, at Syracuse and at Providence.  If they lose one (or both) the Bears chances get much better. 

Connecticut's weekend games are both easier and they would hold the tiebreaker over Hershey. 


No matter what the uncertainty heading into the weekend, there is one thing no one can dispute.

The Bears have to win to get in.  Another 2 points out of 6 weekend will not be enough.  They still have a chance, and a damn good one, but they have to show up in each and every game in this final 3 in 3 weekend of the season. 

Can they do it?  We shall see.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Final Home Regular Season Game

The Hershey Bears will host the Connecticut Whale at 5:00pm tonight in the final regular season game at Giant Center in 2011-12.  There will be at least one home playoff game, but the final 3 regular season games are in New England.

This evening's game against the Whale could seal the Bears first round opponent.  If the Bears win, whether in regulation or after, the Bears would finish no worse than 5th in the Eastern Conference and would play the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in the 5-game first round series.

Should the Bears lose, the Whale would be only four points back with 3 games to play.  As luck would have it the two teams play similar teams the rest of the way as well.  Both the Bears and Whale play Portland and Manchester.  But we will worry about that tomorrow....if necessary.

Unfortunately for the Bears the recent past has not been promising.  Four straight losses has followed a 7 game winning streak.

The scratches and lineup changes, announced before the opening faceoff, takes a little longer and is a who's who of AHL talent. 

And with the games becoming more physical as the playoffs grow near, that list is as likely to grow as it is to shrink.  Both Ryan Potulny and Boyd Kane departed games this weekend after big hits.  Both did return, but the game is taking its toll on guys.

If things weren't bad enough....there was this in the paper this morning:

French banished defenseman Kevin Marshall during the game. “It was a team-related matter,” French said.

That is from Tim Leone's write-up for the paper this morning.  I have no idea what happened, but when a respected beat-writer like Leone uses the word "banished" it definitely raises some eyebrows.  It will be interesting to see if Marshall has a jersey for tonight's game.

So, add disgruntled employee to the list of problems for the Bears at a critical moment in the season.

Dany Sabourin was expected to return to Hershey for the game tonight and will likely get the start.  The Capitals don't play until at least Wednesday so they don't need Dany there for the time being.

If Michal Neuvirth and Tomas Vokoun's injuries keep them out for an extended period it will be interesting to see how the goalies are handled between Washington and Hershey.  It isn't out of the question that Dany could just yo-yo between the teams if the schedules work out for that.

For example, if the Caps play Thursday-Saturday next weekend, Dany could play Friday and Sunday for the Bears.  Especially since the Caps will be in Boston for the first 2 games anyhow. 

That kind of rotation could continue for Dany if the Bears playoff schedule fits into the Caps schedule.  If the schedules don't work out you can be assured that Dany is Capitals property first and Bears second.  

More will be known later today I am sure.  Hopefully Neuvy or Vokoun can recover enough to at least serve as a backup which would allow Dany to return to Hershey full time.  I wouldn't expect both goalies to recover in time so the likelihood of Braden Holtby returning to Hershey is unlikely until the Caps are eliminated, if they would be.

Have a Happy Easter and enjoy the regular season home finale tonight!

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears Take 2 of 3 Last Weekend

The Bears started the weekend off pretty well...picking up a 5-3 regulation victory in Hartford against the Connecticut Whale. 

Then things went downhill for a bit.  They hosted the Baby Pens, who didn't have to travel the night before, to Giant Center and they subsequently defeated the Bears 4-2. 

The 4-2 score makes it seem closer than it probably was.  (I was unable to attend so I am going off of the score sheet and what I heard from a couple people).  The Bears controlled the play for the first period and then took a 1-0 lead about midway through the 2nd period.

And that's when the Bears momentum ended and the Pens started.  Over the next 12-13 minutes of game action, end of the 2nd and beginning of the 3rd, the Baby Pens scored 3 goals.  They added an empty netter with about 2 minutes to play to make it 4-1.  The Bears scored with 40 seconds to go to make it seem like a close game at the end.

So, Wilkes-Barre continues there dominance of Hershey in Central PA.  More on that in a minute.

But Sunday saw the Bears rebound to pick up a 6-3 win over the Norfolk Admirals.  Hershey scored 3 goals on the power play (6 chances) and picked up an empty net goal late to preserve the win. 

Again, the final score doesn't tell the whole story.  Hershey scored 4 in the first period and then Norfolk started playing better hockey.  At the end of the 2nd it was 4-3 Bears and most people in attendance (myself included) would tell you that the outcome was still in doubt.  It was again looking like a strong 1st period would be spoiled by weak 2nd and 3rd periods.

However, Tomas Kundratek (more on him soon) picked up his 4th of the season about 5 minutes into the 3rd and from then on there was little (less anyways) question as to who would win this one. 

Norfolk managed only 6 shots in the 3rd period in what was perhaps Hershey's best late game performance this season.

After the weekend the Bears sit 2 points behind the Baby Pens with one game in hand on the flightless water-fowl.  And 2 games coming up against them in a couple of weeks.

Unfortunately one of those games is in Hershey (12/28 if you were curious).  The Bears have not beaten the Baby Penguins on Giant Center ice since March 27, 2010.  That is the end of the 2009-2010 season when the Bears lost a total of 6 home games all season.

Wilkes-Barre and Hershey have faced off 8 times in Hershey since that game.  The Bears are 0-6-2-0 in those games and have been outscored 34-17. 

The Pens have failed to score less than 4 goals only twice in the last 8 at Giant Center.  One was this year, the first meeting at GC back in October, and the other was a game last spring that went to overtime.

The Bears have failed to score more than 2 goals a whopping 6 times.  They scored 4 earlier this season in an overtime loss and managed 3 in one game last spring.

That is fairly impressive domination. 


Another note about this weekends games...

I mentioned before that Tomas Kundratek scored his 4th of the season on Sunday.  With the Whale he played in only 7 games and recorded a measly 2 assists to start the season.  Since joining Hershey he has played in 11 games and has 4 goals and 2 assists.  Not too bad for a 3rd pairing defenseman.

Francois Bouchard, who was traded to Connecticut for Kundratek, has 2 goals and 2 assists in 14 games with his new team. 

I think most in Hershey felt good about the trade considering Bouch's lack of production last season, but how many really expected Kundratek to actually be outscoring him a month later?


Bears get yet another 3 in 3 this upcoming weekend with games against Norfolk (Friday and Sunday) and Bridgeport.  More coming later this week.

4 Straight Wins...Baby Pens in Town

For the first time in 2011-12 and the first time since last January the Bears have won 4 straight games. 

For the first 33 minutes of the game last night there were 0 goals.  In the final 27 minutes there were 8 goals.  Fortunately 5 of them were scored by Bears.

Hershey scored 4 straight to open the scoring (2 in the 2nd, 2 in the 3rd) and had a 4-0 lead halfway through the 3rd period.  And then things started to get a little more interesting.  The Whale scored 3 goals in a 5:30 span to make it a 4-3 game with just over 3 minutes to play.

The Bears hung on and added an empty netter with 1 second left to preserve the victory. 

The win moves the Bears into first place in the East division as they are now tied with Wilkes-Barre and Norfolk with 31 points.  The Bears hold the current tiebreaker as they have gotten to 31 in 1 fewer game. 

Lucky for Hershey they can stake overall claim to the number 1 spot in the division with 2 more victories this weekend.

Tonight the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins come to Giant Center.  It is sure to be a physical and intense game.  The last time the teams played the Bears left Wilkes-Barre Township with a 3-2 shootout victory after a postgame celebration that ended in a standoff between the teams.

The Pens didn't play last night so they are rested and ready for the Bears.  But this isn't the same Penguins team that was tearing up the AHL back in October/November.  During one stretch earlier they had won 8 games in a row which included 3 wins against the Bears.

Since that run ended though they are 4-5-0-3.  Their typical stellar defensive play and goaltending has been slightly lackluster and the offense just hasn't been there.  They have given up 4+ goals 5 times in that stretch and have failed to score at least 3 goals a total of 6 times. 

This will be the 6th meeting of the season with 6 more to come including 2 more this month.  So far the Pens control the season series having won 3 of the contests to the Bears 2. 

Should be a good one in Hershey tonight.  

Bears Begin a Tough Stretch This Weekend

I just had a great post written.  It had a look at the upcoming schedule and in-depth team previews for the games coming up this weekend. 

And then it disappeared.  Gone.  No trace of it.

So, instead you get this...

The Bears have their second 3 in 3 in as many weekends beginning tonight in Hartford against the Whale.  The Bears then return home for dates against Wilkes-Barre and Norfolk.

In fact this is just the beginning for the Bears.  Before the calendar turns to 2012 the Bears will play 10 more games.  8 are against teams currently ahead of them or tied with them in the standings.  Tonight's game, 3 against Wilkes-Barre, and 4 against Norfolk. 

In addition to that the 2 "easier" games are against Bridgeport and Syracuse.  2 teams that have beat the Bears within the past month. 

7 of the games are on home ice.  Which, one would think, should be a good thing.  Except the Bears are only 5-3-2-1 at home this season.  Total up the losses and that is below .500 (5-6). 

Last weekend was a good start for the Bears.  They picked up 3 wins and are now in the midst of only their 2nd 3 game winning streak of the season.  The last one?  The first 3 games of the season.

This will be a telling 3 week stretch for the Bears.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

There, that's all you get.  I had so much good stuff in that post too.  Check back later today, tomorrow and/or Sunday...if I have time I will type up some new posts with that information.

Bears looking to complete weekend sweep

Tonight wraps up the toughest travel stretch of the year for the Bears.  After playing 6 games in 5 different cities over the last 8 games the Bears return to Hershey to bring the trip full circle and face off against the team that started this stretch, the Norfolk Admirals.

But plenty happened the last couple of days so let's start there.

French gets win #100 (and 101 the next night)

Coach Mark French became the fastest in AHL history to reach 100 wins in his career.  He did it in only 147 games and has an overall winning percentage of .707.

He is the 10th Hershey coach to reach the milestone and with a win tonight would tie Bruce Boudreau for 9th on the Hershey list with 102 wins.

Congrats Coach French!!

Greentree and Willsie step up


On Friday in my players to watch section I basically said the whole team needed to step up.  But I specifically mentioned Brian Willsie and Kyle Greentree.  The duo had not been scoring of late and it was hurting the Bears as they really are the only true goal-scorers active right now.


On Friday night they both scored and Saturday Greentree added his 24th of the year in overtime to lift Hershey over Adirondack.  


While the two weren't stuck in a long scoring drought it is (was) becoming apparent that when one or both of them fail to score Hershey really struggles to get wins.  When your team is missing 3 players that has scored 15+ goals you are bound to struggle a bit.  Willsie and Greentree, fair or not, are the players that need to pick up the slack and carry the team.


I think they can do it.


Bears comfortably in 2nd place

Hershey has found a cozy little for themselves in the East Division right now.  They remain in 2nd place and are 6 points behind Wilkes-Barre/Scranton and 7 points ahead of 3rd place Charlotte.  

While that can obviously change over the course of 2/3 games it is nice to have a bit of a place at this point in the season.

The Baby Pens have not been playing that well of late, picking up their first shootout loss of the season last night in Abbotsford.  They have only won 4 of their last 8 games which has allowed the Bears to remain within range of them for 1st in the division. 

Charlotte has been even worse.  Since their 5-0 maiming of the Bears back on the 20th of February they have played 9 games and have won only 4.  During those 9 games they have scored only 20 goals (that includes 5 in one game).  Do you think they miss Jerome Samson???

Either way Hershey begins the final stretch (12 games - 7 home, 5 road) in very good position.  They have a cushion to 3rd place and are a full 15 points from missing the playoffs.  Definite wiggle room.

----------------------------

Now onto tonight's game.  The last time they met, last Saturday in Hershey, there was a little bit of controversy. 

To refresh your memory:

• Odd goal call at the end of the 2nd
• Cheap shot on Aucoin in the 3rd
• Questionable officiating for much of the game.

Hershey won the game 3-2 on Mathieu Perreault's goal late in the 3rd period but the loss of Aucoin to what is believed to be a concussion definitely stands as the defining moment of the game.

Norfolk captain Chris Durno was suspended for 3 games for the hit.  Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on which side you are on) he will miss tonight's game as he serves the 3rd and final game of the penalty. 

Obviously Hershey fans and likely some of the players were looking for a little retribution against the Admirals captain.  But that will have to wait.  (Hershey visits Norfolk on April 2 and 3).

Still there was plenty of other activities that will surely be fresh in the minds of the Bears players when they take the ice tonight. 

This game will likely have a distinct playoff feel to it with plenty of physicality. 

The way hockey should be played.


Hershey Bears
record ~ 41-22-1-4 | 87 points
standings ~ 2nd in East Division
most recent game ~ 3-2 OT Win @ Adirondack, 3/12
last 5 games ~ 2-2-0-1
home record ~ 20-11-0-2
goals for ~ 217
goals against ~ 176
home power play ~ 21.9% (4th)
home penalty kill ~ 86.7% (3rd)

Norfolk Admirals
record ~ 33-19-8-5 | 79 points
standings ~ 4th in East Division
most recent game ~ 8-3 Win vs Binghamton, 3/11
last 5 games ~ 3-2-0-0
road record ~ 17-12-3-1
goals for ~218
goals against ~ 175
road power play ~18.8% (10th)
road penalty kill ~ 83.0% (16th)

  
last time teams met - 6th meeting between the teams this season with Hershey leading the season series 4-1-0-0.  This is Norfolk's final regular season game in Hershey.  The Bears visits Norfolk twice more this season in April.

Players to watch:

Hershey:

C Mathieu Perreault (24) - Not exactly producing at the same rate prior to his Washington call-up but he did score the game winner against the Admirals last Saturday and added another goal and an assist since then.
LW Boyd Kane (12) - You know that Boyd is going to be focused tonight as he will want to make the Admirals pay for the Aucoin hit.  He has only scored 1 goal (and no assists) in his 8 games so hopefully he can help out on the scoreboard tonight.
LW Andrew Kozek (21) - The newest Bear has played 2 games and already has an assists for Hershey.  He will likely get more opportunities than he had in Chicago and hopefully he can capitalize and help Hershey win again.

Norfolk:
C Marc-Antoine Pouliot (78) - Leads the team in assists (36) and points (51) while also sitting tied for third in goals with 20.  He has 2 goals and 2 assists in the 3 games since they played Hershey.
LW Johan Harju (90) - The team leader in goals with 21 he also sits second on the team in points with 45.  In the 3 games since Hershey he has 2 goals and 3 assists.
RW Matt Fornataro (39) - One of 10 Admirals with double digit goals (16) he scored against Hershey last time they met and has 5 assists in the 3 games since then.

  

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

Bears head to Connecticut to face the Whale

After a day off Hershey begins a traveling weekend tonight in Connecticut.  The Bears have 3 games over the next 3 days in 3 different cities and 3 different states.  They will be busy.

Tonight that kicks off with a matchup against the Connecticut Whale.  Hershey faced the same team back in November (the Sunday before Thanksgiving) when they were still known as the Hartford Wolkpack. 

You know you are in the minor leagues when a team changes its name in the middle of the season.

The Whale has been playing extremely well of late.  They currently sit in 3rd place over in the Atlantic division with 72 points.  They are only 2 points ahead of 4th place Worcester after Hershey gave the Sharks 2 points on Wednesday night.

Connecticut has won 8 of their last 11 games going 8-2-0-1 over that stretch.  Scoring 32 goals in those 8 wins while giving up only 12 in those 8 wins.

So the bad news for Hershey is the Whale has been playing very well of late.

The good news for Hershey is that 7 of those 8 wins came on the road.  And Connecticut is a much better road team than a home team.

On the season the Whale is 13-13-2-2 at home and 19-11-0-4 on the road.

In fact in their last 11 home games they have won only 3 times. 

So Hershey again catches a break.  First it was the recalls on Tuesday...didn't capitalize.  Then it was the injuries on Wednesday...didn't capitalize.  Now it is getting a hot team on the road at home...

Will they capitalize?


Hershey Bears
record ~ 39-22-1-4 83 points
standings ~ 2nd in East Division
most recent game ~ 3-2 Loss @ Worcester, 3/9
last 5 games ~ 1-3-0-1 (lost 4 straight)
road record ~ 19-11-1-2
goals for ~ 212
goals against ~ 173
road power play ~ 16.5% (18th)
home penalty kill ~ 81.4% (19th)

Connecticut Whale
record ~ 32-24-2-6 72 points
standings ~ 3rd in Atlantic Division
most recent game ~ 5-2 Win @ Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, 3/8
last 5 games ~ 4-1-0-0 (won 4 straight)
home record ~ 13-13-2-2
goals for ~177
goals against ~ 175
home power play ~20.2% (9th)
home penalty kill ~ 79.7% (24th)

last time teams met - 2nd and final meeting between the teams during the regular season.  Hershey beat the Wolfpack (as they were known then) 4-3 at Giant Center on November 21.

Players to watch:

Hershey:

Everyone - we all know this team is struggling to score.  Willsie and Greentree haven't produced much and 3 of the top 6 scorers remain sidelined.  Anyone can step up at any time...it would be nice to actually see someone do that sooner than later.

Whale:
C Kris Newbury (11) - Team leader in assists (36) and points (48).  He has 3 goals and 3 assists in his last 3 games. 
C Chad Kolarik (42) - 2nd on the team in goals (20) and 3rd in points (39).  He has 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games.
LW Brodie Dupont (9) - Tied with Kolarik for 3rd in points with 39 this season.  Also has 13 goals this year.  He has 7 assists in his last 4 games including 4 assists against Worcester last weekend.
RW Dale Weise (23) - Leads the team with .94 points per game.  He has 13 goals and 16 assists in 37 games for the Whale this season.  He has 2 goals and 5 assists in his last 4 games.  That includes 3 assists Tuesday night against the Baby Pens.

  

LET'S GO BEARS!!!