Some Lucky Bounces, Some Unlucky Bounces

One couldn't help but think that things weren't going to go the Bears' way when the Monarchs received a penalty shot less than 2 minutes into the game and went up 1-0. It was just one of many bounces that didn't go Hershey's way Sunday afternoon in Manchester.

The teams skated pretty evenly throughout the first period but the Monarchs controlled most of the play and got 4 power plays to Hershey's 1. It took at least 6-7 minutes before the Bears even registered a shot on goal. Soon after, Kris Newbury got his sixth goal of the year when, with a one handed stick sweep, he chipped the puck over Manchester goalie Patrik Bartosak's catching glove.

Coming out in the 2nd, the Bears showed some speed and were able to keep sustained offensive pressure in the Monarchs' zone. Their best chance was when Stan Galiev skated out from behind Manchester's net completely untouched for a nice wraparound.

Hershey's best save and luckiest bounce of the game was owed to the reactions of the left goal post. A Monarchs' point shot found its way through Grubauer's blocker side and slowly bounced off the bottom of the  post. The puck bobbled toward the goal line where it was pretty much half on the line and half in the goal. After a lengthy review, it was deemed no goal. Good call, good break for the Bears.

However, the good fortune wouldn't last long. Failing to capitalize on only their second power play of the game, the Bears then gave up a breakaway to Nick Shore, who would score the first of his two highlight reel goals of the game. Grubauer did keep Hershey in the game when defenseman Jamie McBain, of all players, had a breakaway late in the second.

Most of the third period appeared to be the Bears' strongest both offensively and defensively. They had quite a few scoring opportunities throughout, registering 9 shots while limiting the Monarchs to just 3. Unfortunately, one of those three shorts was enough to put the game out of reach.

While on the power play for a Monarchs' too many men penalty, Hershey was moving the puck well and it looked like they might tie the game. But Nick Shore would notch his second goal as he split two Hershey defenders, got a shot away and put in his own rebound past Grubauer's blocker to make it 3-1.

A tough loss to be sure. But the bounces just didn't go Hershey's way. Some of the outcomes of this weekend have been a bit of a letdown Hershey considering how well they have play even in the games they lost. The games against the Wolf Pack next Saturday and Sunday at Giant Center will be very welcome.

Sparse Crowd Watches Bears Gnaw on Monarchs

I realize it was Halloween night, but I expected a better turnout by the fans in Manchester, NH. There were what looked like maybe 500 people in attendance. Probably more fans watching on AHL Live. Regardless, they missed a well fought game between the Bears and Monarchs. It wasn't an overly physical game and there was no after the whistle activities or fights, but it was well played offensively and defensively by both teams. However, the Bears would end up rolling over Manchester 4-0.

For the first period and most of the second, it seemed like it was going to be one of those back and forth defensive affairs with neither team giving ground. Manchester controlled the majority of the play in that time. There was even a stint in the middle of the first period when the Monarchs had the Bears pinned in their own end 5-on-5. And it seemed like the Monarchs always got a stick on Hershey's passes and scoring chances.

The second period started out the same way until Kris Newbury, behind the Monarch's net, quickly fed the puck to Dane Byers in the slot and made it 1-0 Hershey. The assist gave Newbury his 500th AHL career point.

The play of Newbury and Casey Wellman has really been impressive in the first month of the season. These two have just clicked and they're putting up a lot of points. Obviously it's early in the season but to a certain extent Newbury and Wellman seem like the new Aucoin/Giroux tandem. They're not as offensively gifted and flashy as Aucoin and Giroux, but Newbury and Wellman know where to find each other on the ice and how to put the puck in the back of the net.

Newbury's goal tilted the ice in the Bears' favor as they now controlled the play and would put in two more goals before the end of the period to make it 3-0 going into the 3rd.

Casey Wellman made it 2-0 on the power play with a perfectly placed tip in off Tomas Kundratek's shot pass. It's good to see the Hershey defense utilizing different types of shots. Everyone always wants to wind up for the slap shot on the power play and typically a snap shot is mostly used for the shot pass. But Kundratek placed a hard wrist shot right on the tape of Wellman's stick.

Philip Grubauer got his first shutout of the season and should be commended for keeping Hershey in it for the first half of the game. Even though the Bears kept the Monarchs to the outside of the ice, Grubauer had to be sharp during the three penalty kills. The third period was mostly uneventful and Steve Olesky got the empty net to make it 4-0.

Hershey, with two consecutive shutouts going, heads up to Worcester, MA to face a Sharks team that is 4-2-1 so far. The Bears will be back in Manchester on Sunday to closeout the weekend.

Bears face elimination

A lot of times in sports you see teams fighting for the playoffs make unexpected runs in the postseason after barely getting into the playoffs.  Generally, you always hear the team say its because they have basically been playing in playoff like games for a while, just to get into the playoffs.

And it makes sense.

But none of the teams currently still alive for a playoff spot in the AHL's Eastern Conference can make that claim.  The Bears have gone a combined 3-5-0-0 in their last eight, winning one out of three the past two weekends and only one so far this one.

Last night Hershey actually could have clinched a playoff spot by winning.  Instead they dropped a 4-2 game to the 4th place Binghamton Senators.

Fortunately for the Bears neither of the other teams want in either.  Connecticut entered the weekend with 2 games and owning the main tiebreaker over both Norfolk and Hershey.  As it turns out they only needed one win.  Instead they lost both to go along with the previous 4.  6 straight loses have come after an 8-2 run.

But they still have a shot.  If both Hershey and Norfolk lose today...the Whale get the 8 seed.

Norfolk was playing some good hockey until this weekend.  They had won 8 of 10 entering last Sunday's game against Providence and looked to be the team to beat amongst the 4 teams fighting for two spots entering the weekend.

Back to back loses to Syracuse and Albany, and just 1 goal scored in the two games, leaves them in a world of hurt as they make the trip to Providence to play the AHL's best and hottest team as they have locked up the #1 overall seed and have won 8 straight games.

Norfolk can still get it in with a win and a Hershey loss or an overtime/shootout loss accompanied by a Bears regulation loss.

Now we come to our Hershey Bears.

It's quite simple really.  Win and your in, lose and your done.  The only way the Bears can lose and get in is if its in overtime or a shootout and even then they would need Norfolk to lose too.

The good news here is that Hershey doesn't NEED help.  If they take care of business against a surging Manchester team they will be playing next weekend.

As a player it has to be nice to have something so cut and dry.  Win...in.  Done.

The bad news is the Bears get Manchester.  I mean, it could be worse, they could be playing Providence, but the Monarchs are the AHL's second hottest team having won 6 in a row.  That includes a 4-3 win over Hershey last Saturday night.

The Bears and Monarchs have played 3 times so far with the Monarchs winning 2, both in Manchester.  The lone Hershey win was back in February at Giant Center by a score of 2-1.

On March 23 the Bears jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first 25 minutes only to see the Monarchs score 5 straight in the next 30 minutes of play before finishing up at 6-4. 

Last Saturday looked like it might go the other way as the Bears let Manchester jump out to a 3-0 lead in the first 10 minutes before scoring a couple in the second on their way to a 4-3 loss.

If the Bears can manage to win their 36th game of the season, they will make the playoffs.

If they can't, then they will have finished the season on a 3-6 stretch that saw 3 consecutive 1-2 weekends.

Not the way I would want it to end, that's for sure.

It's going to be a sold out Giant Center tonight and is surely going to be loud.  Norfolk plays at 3 so before the 2nd period Hershey should at least know that outcome, but it really doesn't matter.

Without a win, the Bears are likely done.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

73 down, 3 to go

3 games remain on the Hershey schedule. 

After 73 games the Bears are an unspectacular 34-30-3-6 (77 points).  Some might classify that as being above .500, but to me they are actually 34-39 since the last 2 numbers are still losses, they just come at a different time.

But all of that is meaningless right now. 

3 games.  Win those 3 games and chances are pretty solid that the Bears would make the playoffs. 

Lose 1 and chances are they are done. 

Really is quite that simple.

Let's see what Hershey needs to do to pass each team ahead of them in the standings that hasn't clinched a playoff spot.

Portland Pirates - 6th place - 83 points - 34 ROW - 3 games to play

Hershey can't pass them.  The first tiebreaker, whether it be 2 or 3 teams is number of wins minus shootout wins...or Regulation Wins + Overtime Wins (ROW).  Hershey currently has 30 ROW.  If they won all 3 games in regulation they would have 83 points, which is good enough to tie Portland, but only 33 ROW. 

Norfolk Admirals - 7th place - 79 points - 30 ROW - 3 games to play

This is the most complicated of the scenarios.  Norfolk has to lose at least one game.  If they lose 1 and Hershey wins all 3 the teams would be tied with 83 points.  But, assuming Hershey wins their games in regulation or overtime, the Bears would finish with more ROW. 

If Norfolk doesn't lose (they play at Syracuse, at Albany, and at Providence) then Hershey can't pass them.  And if they lose twice, Hershey only has to win 2 to tie them. 

Connecticut Whale - 8th place - 79 points - 33 ROW - 2 games to play

Because they only have 2 games to play this seems like the Bears best bet to make the playoffs.  But I think Norfolk is the more likely chance.  IF Connecticut wins their last 2 and Hershey wins their 3 then the teams would be tied.  BUT, unless the Whale wins both of their games in a shootout, Hershey can't even tie them in ROW.  Meaning that Connecticut would be in the playoffs and Hershey wouldn't.

The Whale plays Friday at Albany and Saturday at Portland.  Both tough, yet winnable games.  If Hershey hopes to pass the Whale then Connecticut has to lose at least 1. 

Manchester Monarchs - 9th place - 77 points - 33 ROW - 3 games to play

Obviously beating the Monarchs in the standings is only the first step to the playoffs since that would only get the Bears to 9th, but it is still a team that stands between Hershey and the postseason.

Luckily, the Bears and Monarchs play Sunday evening at Giant Center.  And it could mean everything...or nothing.

Let's assume that Manchester wins at Binghamton and at Wilkes-Barre on Friday and Saturday night.  And let's assume that Hershey beats Adirondack and Binghamton in their Friday/Saturday road trip.  That would leave both Hershey and Manchester with 81 points heading into Sunday. 

NOW, let's assume that Norfolk loses Friday (very possible)...then the winner of the Bears/Monarchs game would likely get the 8 seed while the loser goes home. 

There is a chance that both teams could get into the playoffs but that is complicated and brings in lots of what-ifs.


The easiest path to the playoffs for Hershey is through Norfolk.  The Admirals have 2 very tough games this weekend, at Syracuse and at Providence.  If they lose one (or both) the Bears chances get much better. 

Connecticut's weekend games are both easier and they would hold the tiebreaker over Hershey. 


No matter what the uncertainty heading into the weekend, there is one thing no one can dispute.

The Bears have to win to get in.  Another 2 points out of 6 weekend will not be enough.  They still have a chance, and a damn good one, but they have to show up in each and every game in this final 3 in 3 weekend of the season. 

Can they do it?  We shall see.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears Play Host to Two

The Bears have played a lot of close games over the past few weeks.  Five of their last 9 games have gone to overtime, with three of those five going to a shootout.

But lately the Bears have failed to impress.  In their last 4 games before the All-Star break the Bears scored a grand total of 6 goals.  Not surprisingly then, they also lost all 4 games.  They did manage to get 2 points during the streak, but that isn't something you want to brag about.

Based on my brief review of the trades that went down this week I would say that the Hamill for Wellman deal was strictly a way to get rid of that pesky "too-many veterans" problem the team had (for the second year in a row).  It doesn't feel like it was done to improve the Bears offense at all, but maybe it will.

The other trade...Beaudoin for LeBlanc, seems like it could have been more towards helping the offense...IF LeBlanc can find his scoring touch from last season.  So far this year his numbers were no more impressive then the player headed to Rockford. 

If these two moves don't spark something, does Yingst make more moves? 

The Bears have been impressive defensively this season.  They only give up 2.44 goals per game (top 5 in the league) and have consistently kept the Bears in games with solid play.  Goaltending has been a positive as well with Dany Sabourin and Philip Grubauer playing well (my pick would be Grubauer as the #1, but that's a different post altogether) since Braden Holtby took a trip south to D.C.

Unfortunately, the Bears offense remains anemic at best most nights.  Hopefully the time off this week allowed them to make some adjustments and start working back to the team that scored 12 goals in the 3 games (all wins by the way) before this recent 4 game slide.

Tonight we see if they look any different as the Manchester Monarchs come to town. 

While not a divisional game, this is a very important game for the Bears.  Manchester currently sits in the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with 46 points.  Hershey sits in 11th, only 2 points back.

There are still 33 games left for the Bears so I would hardly call this a must win, but if they are going to make the playoffs, these are the teams they HAVE to beat on home ice.

The Monarchs are in a similar slide as the Bears.  They won 4 straight from the 18th to the 23rd, outscoring their opponents 14-4 and then took an offensive nosedive, scoring only 1 goal in each of their last 3 games and losing all 3 by a combined 11-3.  Including a 4-1 loss last night up 81 in Wilkes-Barre.

The main difference between the Bears and Monarchs streaks...Manchester has won their home games and lost on the road while Hershey seems intimidated by their own building.

This is Manchester's 4th road game in the past 8 days and things haven't gone well for them.  It is also their final road game on this trip as they return home after the game and have the next week off.  They surely don't want to end this streak (and begin a grueling week of practices) with a loss.  They will be ready to play.

Monarchs to Watch:

• 26 | RW | Tyler Toffoli - the rookie has been impressive so far with 20 goals and 33 points in 42 games during his first extended taste of pro hockey.  He leads the teams in goals and is second with points and had a solid January with 6 goals and 4 assists in 9 games.
• 9 | C | Linden Vey - another young Kings prospect, Vey leads the team with 26 assists and 37 points on the year.  He also had a good January with 3 goals and 10 assists in 11 games.  Although, he hasn't recorded an assist in his last 6 games.  (that dry spell follows 13 assists in 9 straight games.)
• 14 | LW | Tanner Pearson - yet another top prospect, Pearson is tied for 3rd on the team in points with 29 (10g, 19a).  Not quite as good in January, 4 goals and 5 assists in 11 games, but still a solid month.  

Those three players above represent the top left wing, center, and right wing in the King's organization, according to HockeysFuture.com.  An impressive collection of talent to be sure.



Sunday the Bears welcome the rival Baby Penguins to Giant Center for a 2pm faceoff on Super Bowl Sunday. 

The Baby Pens were, for lack of a better term, BAD for long stretches this season.  In a recent 15 game stretch through December and into January, the Pens won a total of 3 games and endured losing streaks of 6 and 5 games.  Hershey was responsible for 3 of those defeats.

However, of late the Pens are much better.  They have won their last 2 against Hershey and have won 7 of their last 8 games. 

This is the final time the Pens will visit Hershey during this regular season and the Bears only make the trip up 81 twice more before April.

The Pens, despite their terrible stretch in December and January are still in better position then the Bears standings-wise.  They have 47 points and currently sit in 6th place in the conference.

Again, just like the Manchester game tonight, it isn't a must-win game for the Bears, but if they hope to make the playoffs they have to beat the teams directly above them in the standings.  Especially on home ice.

The Penguins will be bringing a new leading scorer into the game as well as they added Chad Kolarik from the Connecticut Whale early this month.  Kolarik had 16 goals and 19 assists in 41 games with the Whale and has 1 goal in 3 games with the Pens already.

The Penguins are winning games of late just like they did last season...with defense.  As I said before, they have won 7 of 8...they have only given up 6 goals in those 7 games.  It isn't hard to win games when the opposing team can't score on you.

Hershey has scored a total of 1 goal in their last 2 games against the Pens.

Both Wilkes-Barre goalies, Brad Thiessen and Jeff Zatkoff, have been involved in the latest run, but it is more the result of Thiessen apparently finding his game again.  In January he played in 7 games, winning 5 of them and posting a goals against average of 1.36 and a save percentage of .940.  Considering that in the 3 previous months of the season he had failed to be under 3.00 goals against or above .890 save percentage, you can see that his numbers help explain the Pens success.

No telling which goalie will make the start tomorrow, but both will surely give the Pens a chance to win.


Enjoy the games this weekend and...

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!

Bears on the road this weekend

Tonight the Bears will play in Providence, Rhode Island.  Tomorrow they travel to Manchester, NH.  Sunday they complete the weekend in Bridgeport, CT.  After that game they will return to Hershey.

Except that is just the beginning of their journey over the next week.  This is the longest stretch of road games for the Bears this season (5) and due to the layout of the games the Bears will spend more than 1/7 of their next week on a bus. 

The first leg, this weekend, will take them from Hershey to all the cities I already mentioned.  That is 15 hours on a bus...according to mapquest anyways.

Then they come back to Hershey for about 3 days before leaving Wednesday (I assume, but they may leave Tuesday) for a trip to Rochester, NY to play that night.  Then Thursday they go to Cleveland to play again. 

And then they come home.

All combined it is 1750 miles and over 31 hours on a bus.  That means that about 18% of the teams next 7 days will be spent on a bus. 

That's a rough road trip.


Tonight the Bears get the Providence Bruins.  Currently the Bruins sit in last place in the Atlantic Division and 11th in the Eastern Conference.  Tim Leone points out that they have been one of the better AHL teams over the past 10 games, going 6-2-2-0 in those games. 

Compare that to the Bears 4-5-0-1 in their last 10 and you might think the Bruins are playing better today.  Except that the Bruins are 1-3 in their last 4 games while the Bears are 3-0-0-1 in their last 4. 

In addition to that, the Bruins have scored a total of 8 goals in their last 4 games.  Which is bad enough.  But 6 of those goals came in one game.  The 3 losses in their last 4 have seen goal totals of 0, 1, and 1 by the Bruins. 

Although that shouldn't be entirely surprising considering they are currently ranked as the 30th team (out of 30) in the AHL in goals per game with only 2.33 per game. 

Hershey scores 3.60 per game.

A few other stats in the Bears favor tonight...

• Providence is only 1-5 versus the East Division
• Bruins are 28th in the league with the man advantage on home ice
• Bruins are only 15th in the league on the penalty kill at home
• The Bruins enter the game with a -13 scoring margin in the first period
• And a -14 in the third period.

One thing the Bruins do have going for them...they are 2nd in the league in attendance per game with 7,321 per game.

That is second to the Bears...by 2,352. 


Next up is the Manchester Monarchs.  These guys beat our Bears twice in two days back in January.  First there was a 5-4 win for them on Saturday the 21st.  Then they followed it up with a 4-2 win on Sunday the 22nd.

So Hershey should be looking for some retribution.

The Monarchs enter the game 2nd in the Atlantic and 6th in the Conference.  They are also 1-3 in their last 4 games (just like Providence) and have actually scored fewer goals in those 4 than the Bruins, only 7.  While allowing 14.

Again, that shouldn't be surprising as the Monarchs score only 2.6 per game.  And they don't do it on the power play at home as they are only 23rd in that category. 

What they do well is keep opposing power plays from scoring as they are currently 6th in the league on the penalty kill at home. 

Just in case you were wondering...Hershey is 1st in road power play.

While Providence weaknesses appear to be in the 1st and 3rd periods, the Monarchs are weak in the 2nd.  They carry a -16 scoring margin in the 2nd period on the season.  The Bears are +21 in the 2nd...their strongest period.  (Also a +17 in the first so that is good...and not too bad in the 3rd, -2).


Finally this weekend the Bears get the Bridgeport Sound Tigers.  The Tigers are probably the best team of the three this weekend...especially of late.

Yes the Bears beat them twice back in December.  Once in Hershey and once in Bridgeport.  But those games fell in a tough pattern for the Tigers as they were only 1-8 during a stretch there. 

Since that stretch ended though they are a very impressive 13-1-0-1.  Their two losses were to St. Johns and Manchester and impressively they have scored at least 5 goals in 4 of their last 6 games.  All wins of course.

The good news...both the losses took place on home ice.  If that helps you anyways.

Bridgeport is the best offensive team Hershey will see this weekend (7th in goals scored).  Their power play on home ice is weak, only 26th in the league, but the penalty kill at home is a solid 4th in the league.

Lucky for us this game will be on TV starting at 3:00 Sunday afternoon.

Enjoy the games.

Bears play...and lose 3 in 3

I was going to do some research today to figure out the last time a Hershey team lost all 3 games in a 3 in 3 weekend.  The good folks at Sweetest Hockey on Earth beat me to it.

April 2005.

The last time the Hershey Bears lost all 3 games of a 3 in 3 was under the Colorado Avalanche. 

Thanks to ABC27 I was able to see all 3 games this weekend.  The unfortunate part of that is, had I only seen 1, I would have seen them all.

The Bears played the exact same on Sunday as they had on Friday.  It was like 3 nights was just one game. 

Friday was the first period which saw the Bears lose on a late (6 minutes to go) shorthanded tally by the Binghamton Senators.  Then after a 21ish hour intermission (and 3 hr road trip) they lost with another late (2 minutes to go) goal, this time by the Monarchs.  Then another 19ish hour intermission they came out and laid an egg and lost yet again to Manchester.

Honestly, it was the same team all three games.  And I am pretty sure it was a completely different team that had played previously in Hershey. 

The goaltending...average...AT BEST.

The defense...way to aggressive at the offensive blueline.

The offense...too much passing.

The goaltending was weak all 3 games with the best performance coming on Sunday with Braden Holtby in net.  (He also played Friday).  But in all three games there were goals that should have been saves.  The goaltending deserves a fair share of the blame, but they weren't the only problem.

The defense routinely pinched in in the offensive zone and in turn routinely got beat the other way for odd man rushes.  Many of these odd man rushes led to goals for the Senators and Monarchs. 

The forwards couldn't shoot the puck.  And when they did shoot the puck they generally missed the net.  The opposing goaltenders were good, no doubt, but the Bears always wanted to make the extra pass looking for the perfect shot/wide open net. 

Don't get me wrong...I enjoy the nice passing.  And most of the time I think it is a necessary evil, but this weekend, last night especially, there was simply too much of it.  Shooters were passing up shots left and right in an effort to look for "something better".

It was just a bad weekend for the Bears.

All teams go through spurts of bad games and bad luck.  This, in my opinion, is just that.  It was a 3 game weekend after a 1 in 10 days stretch that apparently surprised the Bears. 

They will rebound.

Bears begin tough stretch in Manchester

Hershey begins a long week tonight in Manchester, New Hampshire as they take on the Atlantic division leading Monarchs.

The Bears have 5 games over the next 7 days.  2 against division leaders (Manchester, WB/S), 2 against teams looking to catch Hershey (Binghamton, Norfolk), and 1 against a team that beat Hershey earlier this season but is currently out of the playoffs (Providence).

4 of those games are on the road with only the Binghamton game coming in Hershey.

Keeping pace with the Baby Pens is the name of the game from here on.  The Bears aren't going to just catch and pass them some weekend.  They are going to have to make up a point here or there and then win the head to head matchups.

So wins over Atlantic division foes are always good.  And it would surely help their confidence if said wins were to come over division leading foes like Manchester.

The Bears played host to the Monarchs back on Halloween and finished that game with a 7-3 victory.  But that really doesn't mean much now.

Manchester is quite possibly the most balanced scoring team in the league.  They have 9 different players with 11+ goals.  Hershey only has 6.  None of the Monarchs has more than 16 goals so no one is standing out but that is a lot of guys to keep an eye on.  Every defensive pairing has to be ready to go tonight.

A couple weeks ago the argument could have been made that Hershey had a decided edge in goal over the Monarchs.  Sure, Martin Jones was an All-Star and is having a terrific season but Hershey had Braden Holtby and Dany Sabourin who had been playing fantastic hockey of late.

Now Hershey has Todd Ford and Jared DeMichiel.  Although to be honest, based on the rotation (or lack there of) last weekend I would say the Bears don't even have DeMichiel.

While Ford is definitely a solid goaltender he isn't Holtby or Sabourin and he isn't Jones either.  He has not exactly been dominant in the lower levels either.  He has a career 2.69 goals against and a save percentage just a tick over 90%.  Those aren't bad numbers but those numbers in the AHL would result in about a .500 record.

Hershey needs better play than that this weekend.

The defense can help him too.  This past weekend I saw multiple occasions where a Manitoba forward was left wide open to pick up a rebound and shoot.

To put it simply....that can't happen.  With Dany or Braden in net...maybe you get away with it for a little bit.  But (no offense to Ford) no one is going to mistake Todd Ford for Sabs or Holtby.

Better play from the defense and an exceptional effort from the journeyman goaltender and Hershey can come away from Manchester with a win.

And a lead after 1 would be good too.  Manchester is undefeated this season when they lead after one period...Hershey has only lost 2 in regulation when leading after 1 (2 shootout losses too).

Some more fun facts for tonight's game:

• Manchester is best in the AHL when scoring first with a .875 win percentage.
• Hershey is 3rd at .824
• Manchester is #2 in the AHL in overall points with 67
• Hershey is 3rd with 66
• Manchester is 7-3-0-1 against the East division
• Hershey is 3-2-0-0 against the Atlantic.
• Manchester has the #4 power play on home ice
• Hershey has the #4 power play on the road
• Manchester has the #18 penalty kill at home
• Hershey has the #18 penalty kill on the road
• Manchester is #7 in goals scored per game with 3.23
• Hershey is #1 in goals per game with 3.51
• Manchester is #9 in goals against per game with 2.71
• Hershey is #1 with 2.37 goals allowed per game

Hershey Bears
record ~ 31-14-1-3 66 points
standings ~ 2nd in East Division
most recent game ~ 5-1 Win vs Manitoba, 2/6
last 5 games ~ 4-0-0-1
road record ~ 14-6-1-1
goals for ~ 172
goals against ~ 116
power play ~ 22.9% (2nd)
penalty kill ~ 84.9% (8th)


Manchester Monarchs
record ~ 31-16-1-4 67 points
standings ~ 1st in Atlantic Division
most recent game ~ 4-0 Win @ Albany, 2/5
last 5 games ~ 4-1-0-0
home record ~ 17-7-1-0
goals for ~ 168
goals against ~ 141
power play ~ 19.3% (11th)
penalty kill ~ 84.6% (9th)


last time teams met - Hershey won 7-3 on Halloween in Hershey.  This is the 2nd and final meeting of the regular season.


Players to watch:

Hershey:

C Jay Beagle (21) - Hasn't played since 12/12 due to recall to Washington.  He brings with him exceptional penalty killing and the ability to grind out goals.  He has 7 goals and 4 assists on the year.
F Brian Willsie (18) - Has an 8 game point streak (9 goals, 4 assists in those games).  Tied for the team lead in goals (22) and second in points (48).
C Keith Aucoin (11) - Has at least one point in 11 straight games (3 goals, 15 assists in that timeframe).  Has taken over the team points lead (49 points) despite missing 17 games.

Monarchs:

C Oscar Moller (10) - Has 13 goals and 21 assists on the year and is leading the team in points per game with .89 ppg.  Has 4 goals and 2 assists in last 5 games.
C Marc-Andre Cliche (22) - Has 14 goals and 15 assists on the season including 6 goals and 7 assists in his last 12 games.
D Viatcheslav Voynov (76) - Leads the team in points with 37 (12 goals, 25 assists).  The All-Star has 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

Suspense, Record, McNeill, Kane, and the Calder Cup Finals!!!

WOW! What a game!

Hershey got timely goaltending, solid defense, and just enough offense to finish off the series with the Manchester Monarchs and now await the Western Conference winner in the Calder Cup Finals!!!

It didn't start out so good though. Manchester took a 1-0 lead into the first period thanks to a mistake by Bears goalie Michal Neuvirth and some miscommunication between the rest of the team. An icing call was upcoming until Neuvy left his crease as he debated playing the puck. Whether or not he played it or not doesn't matter, the linesman waived off the icing (with plenty of time left for Hershey to know it) but the Bears didn't see that and played the puck like they would a touch up.

But Manchester didn't stop and converted the mistake into a 1-0 lead. With less than 20 seconds to go in the period, that is a tough goal to take.

It seemed to effect Hershey in the second as well as they seemed a little slow and unfocused while the Monarchs came to play. There were numerous close calls in the 2nd including a Monarch missing a wide open net and Patty McNeill doing his best Neuvy impersonation with what was probably the save of the night. The puck was about to cross the goal line after getting by Neuvy but McNeill swept it away to keep the Bears within striking distance.

Overall the Monarchs outplayed the Bears for much of the game. But in the third Hershey came to play. They doubled their shot total from the first two periods with 13 in the third period alone and scored twice.

Really the difference seemed to be that Manchester didn't block as many shots. The Giroux goal came on a rebound and the McNeill goal was really just a weak wrister that didn't get knocked down and Bernier likely never saw.

Not sure if it was the depth or just more determination from Hershey but they owned the third period and overtime.

And Boyd Kane was the hero in overtime. After a McNeill shot went wide, Kyle Wilson picked it up, went around the back of the net and fed the puck to Kane's stick where he put it behind Bernier and ended the Monarchs season.

Much of this week I bashed Kane's offensive prowess as he was playing on the top line but he managed to be the offensive hero last night. Playing on the third line for the last 2 games seemed to fit him better and the entire team seemed to benefit from it.

The other player that really seemed to key some offensive play was Cody Eakin. He played on the 4th line with Joudrey and Rome and for the first two periods that line was probably Hershey's best.

Getting a little more offense on the 4th line was key to keeping them on the ice more. During games 4 and 5 it seemed like the 4th line was barely used. Thanks to the Gordon injury the depth that carried the Bears for much of the season seemed to diminish due to players having to move up onto other lines. So bringing Eakin back from summer vacation seemed like a good move and it proved to be just that last night.

The return of McNeill to the lineup was also huge. Sure he made it back in game 4 but that was the game with 7 defensemen and I am not sure how much he actually played. He took the place of Greg Amadio last night and he provided a much needed offensive spark from the blue line. Prior to last night John Carlson was really the only d-man pushing the puck and jumping into the play. Which for many teams, like Manchester, that wouldn't change much. But Hershey, like Washington, relies on their defense to pinch in, keep pucks in the zone, and jump up on the rush.

So not having that for a few games was part of the offensive struggles. Last night McNeill added that element to a 2nd line. And it paid huge dividends.


Now comes the waiting part. Hamilton took a 3-2 series lead last night in Texas. The series now heads back to Hamilton for games 6 and, if necessary, 7. Obviously Texas is up against it here and odds are Hamilton will face Hershey in the Calder Cup Finals.

Seems familiar doesn't it?? 3 years ago Hershey beat Manchester to advance to their second straight Calder Cup Finals where they ran into the Hamilton Bulldogs and lost in 5 games.

This is a different, more talented Bears team and a different outcome is expected.

For those of you at the game last night you might have heard the public address announcer make the announcement that games 1 and 2 will be in Hershey. Which is how it should be. But because of the circus coming to town from the 26-31 that isn't necessarily how it will be.

It was reported in Hamilton a few days ago that if Hershey and Hamilton were to square off in the finals that the series would go 2-3-1-1. Meaning games 1,2 in Hamilton followed by 3 straight in Hershey, game 6 in Hamilton, and back to Hershey for game 7.

So Hershey COULD actually be the top seed and start a series on the road. It wouldn't be exactly optimum but if they were able to split those 2 games it surely would make things extremely difficult for the Bulldogs.

But that is a discussion for another time. Congrats to the Bears for winning their 4th Eastern Conference title in the past 5 seasons. What a stretch of hockey it has been!!

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!!

Bears can win series tonight!

What a game on Thursday night! 0-0 through 2 periods, 3-2 Bears victory in overtime. I really though Bernier was going to steal his first game of the series but Francois Bouchard, and before that Chris Bourque, managed to keep that from happening.

Down 1 with a minute to go Hershey pulled Neuvirth and thanks to some very good passing and puck control Chris Bourque scored the tying goal with 50 seconds to go.

Hershey was extremely close to heading back home down 3 games to 2. But instead they are up 3 to 2 and Manchester will have to do what no combination of AHL teams have done in 2010...win 2 games in Hershey!

At the beginning of the series I thought that Jonathon Bernier was probably the reason that Manchester was doing as well as they were. But the more I see of them I would say that isn't entirely accurate. In the last 2 games I can't remember a single time where Hershey had an odd man rush.

When Hershey brings the puck through the neutral zone there are always 2 Monarchs in their own zone. And once Hershey gets possession in the zone the Monarchs have all 5 players deep and in passing lanes. Which allows them to block shot after shot from anywhere outside the faceoff circles.

I think that while Bernier is definitely very good his numbers this postseason have more to do with the playing style than his exceptional play.

In fact it reminds me of another team in this years hockey playoffs that has done the unthinkable...the Montreal Canadiens. They have been playing excellent defensive hockey and it has them in the Eastern Conference Championship.

Don't get me wrong...both Bernier and Halak are playing great hockey. But when your defense is always in position and you block lot of shots a goalie doesn't have to be 'perfect'.


After game 1 the Monarchs mentioned that the large, loud crowd kind of rattled them a bit. Well I can guarantee that tonight's crowd will be larger and louder than that one was. And having played the last 3 games in their building with a grand total of 7,761 fans they will surely need to readjust to a building with 10,500+ fans!!

Fortunately for the Monarchs it is looking questionable if Andrew Gordon will be able to return this series. It was looking like he might make it back for tonight's game but in the paper yesterday it mentioned that he is doubtful for the game and the series.

Hopefully he can return if Hershey makes the finals.

Another sign that he won't be there is the return of Cody Eakin. They had sent the junior eligible winger home for the summer earlier this week but changed their mind recently and called him back.

The kid can flat out score goals. In 4 games for Hershey this season he scored 2 goals and in his junior season he scored 47 goals in 70 games!! And he added another 44 assists in those games.

While Jay Beagle was definitely an upgrade over Boyd Kane on the top line a kid like Cody Eakin could make some noise there or maybe on the third line. More than likely he was brought back for depth purposes only but I would like to see him get a shot.

Personally though...I would rather just see Andrew Gordon on the right side of Giroux and Aucoin.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears can't beat Bernier, drop game 4

Well at least we get to see the Bears play in Hershey again this weekend!! See there is a bright side to everything.

Last night Manchester controlled play from the opening faceoff and finished the night with a 1-0 victory to tie the Eastern Conference Finals at 2 games a piece. And it wasn't that difficult either as the Bears managed a whopping 18 shots on the night and had no more than 7 in any period.

Now Hershey needs to figure out how to regain momentum and create some offensive pressure, which has mysteriously disappeared in the last 2 games.

Can all of that be attributed to Andrew Gordon missing from the lineup? Or is this just Hershey getting complacent after going up 2 games to none?

I think it is probably a little bit of both. Hershey won game 2 and was up 2-0 in game 3 without Gordon so it isn't all that. But they would be better equipped to weather this storm if he was there.

No, I think this is more a little complacency from the defending Calder Cup Champs. They won the first 2 games and then were up 2-0 in the 3rd period of game 3 before letting Manchester back in the series. Now Manchester has all the momentum and Hershey is questioning their play.

Not good.

So how do they fix it? Well...dressing 7 defensemen is not the answer. If you are struggling offensively I don't see how that makes any sense. And dressing a kid making his AHL debut who isn't known for his offensive output is also questionable. Della Rovere is going to be a solid player but he is not going to score a lot of goals.

In my opinion one of the big problems the Caps had and now the Bears are having is teams are able to shut down 2 good players on one line but they can't stop 3. That explains why, with Gordo in the lineup, the Bears are much better because if you are the opposition, who do you stop on that line?

But when you put Boyd Kane on that line he is no threat so you focus on Giroux and Aucoin and let Kaner run around wild.

Washington had the same problem in the playoffs. No offense to Mike Knuble but the Canadiens were not afraid of him. So they shut down Ovi and Nicky and let Knuble run wild. They were able to do that to every line on the Caps team.

Right now the Monarchs can do that to Hershey. Except the second line has been impressive the past 2 games. Bourque, Perreault, and either Bouchard or Beagle have been very good in both ends I thought. But it obviously isn't enough.

So what would I like to see tomorrow night? Well if he is available get Gordon into the lineup but if he needs another day don't rush him.

After that do 2 things...shuffle the lines and dress Michael Dubuc. Dubuc can score and play offense. Playing defense is generally considered his weakness.

The lines:

Giroux - Aucoin - Bourque
Dubuc - Perreault - Bouchard
Beagle - Wilson - Pinner
Rome - Joudrey - Kane

That will help the offensive game. I know Bourque is a left wing and Beagle would rather play center but something needs to change. Without Gordon, Hershey is weak on the right side so you have to move someone over for a game.

I am sure Bourque can handle right wing for a game or two.

Now if you are the Monarchs...who do you stop on the top two lines? You can't possibly shut down everyone on the top line and if they let Dubuc alone he can surely score. And the third line is good too with Wilson getting some offensive help.

Any way you look at it Hershey HAS TO PLAY BETTER UP FRONT. If they don't get more shots and more goals soon this is going to be a bad way to end the season. Sure much of the problem has been the Monarchs ability to block shots but with 3 scorers on the top 2 lines you will have more options and more open lanes.


I watched the game on AHL Live last night and followed along with some of the chatter that was going on in the chat window.

Why does everyone seem surprised that Manchester is a good team? They had won 16 of 20 games coming into the series and had only allowed more than 3 goals twice in that time. Sure they didn't win the division but in 05-06 neither did the Bears!

And remember that while Hershey was decidedly better record wise in the regular season they also achieved those numbers against a weaker than usual East division. While Manchester played in the much more demanding Atlantic division and still managed to get to 95 points which would have been good enough for 2nd in the East division.

Manchester did not sneak into this round like Providence did last year. This team is for real.

I am as surprised as anyone about how the Bears have been playing the past 2 games but remember that I did say this series would go 7. So at some point Hershey was going to lose some games. Honestly I thought it would be more of a result of Bernier playing out of his mind while in reality it has been Hershey's lack of offensive push causing the problems.

Tomorrow nights game 5 is obviously big for both teams. If Hershey wins the Monarchs would then have to beat Hershey twice at home. Not hard...it has only been about 6 months since Hershey's lost 2 at home but still it is possible. But if Manchester wins they would only need to win one game in Hershey which while still difficult (only one other team has won a game in Hershey since November) is definitely easier to accomplish.

But in the end I only know this....

I still believe and I will be there on Saturday to root for the Hershey Bears on their quest for Calder Cup number 11!!

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears fall apart in 3rd, drop game 3

Well that was surprising. Hershey controlled the play for much of the first 2 periods and for the first 5 minutes of the third. Then Manchester took over and out Beared the Bears scoring twice in the third to tie it and then scoring the game winner 3 minutes into overtime.

Hershey started out great, getting a late first period goal from Alexandre Giroux and an early third period tally from Mathieu Perreault. Manchester had shown little in the way of actual offense up to that point.

But it was funny. As soon as Hershey went up 2-0 people started getting confident. John Walton made a reference to Hershey being up 3-0 and the chat room on AHLLive seemed like the game was over.

Got to wonder if the Bears players started to feel that way too? It sure seemed like it.

From that point on Manchester controlled the play. With the exception of a late Bears power play in the third Hershey lacked any sort of real offense.

Although truthfully that seemed to be a problem all game as Hershey finished with just 25 shots. Manchester supposedly had 40 but most of those were poor shots from the outside and didn't cause much trouble.

I mentioned this Sunday and I will mention it again....what is Boyd Kane doing on the top line? That line was a non-factor last night and I personally believe it had more to do with the personnel than Manchester's D.

The newspaper mentioned something about putting some grit on the top line in place of Andrew Gordon. That's fine but is Boyd Kane truly the best option? I still think Pinizzotto would be the right fit as he is still contributing offensively this season. Kane has scored only 5 goals since the beginning of February while Pinner has 2 this series.

I don't know. I am not at practice or in the meetings so who knows how everyone feels about it. I also understand the desire to keep the remaining lines intact if possible but the top line is the most important offensively. Adding a guy like Kyle Wilson would be okay but he probably isn't going to go to the front of the net. Jay Beagle would be good but he is playing center elsewhere. Personally I would rather see Ashton Rome on the top line than Boyd Kane.

Don't get me wrong, Kane is a very good player. He had a tremendous season but right now Hershey NEEDS offense. You can't expect to beat Bernier and the Monarchs by scoring 2 goals, not with the way Neuvirth is playing in the third period so far.

Kane had 1 shot last night. 1. If you are playing on a line with Aucoin and Giroux you better produce more offense than that.


Everyone knew Manchester was going to come hungry to win last night. We knew that Hershey would have to give their best to go up 3-0. Unfortunately Hershey didn't give their best and Manchester came to win and they did.

Now the series is 2-1 and everything is different. Manchester now has some momentum. They have 2 more games in their building. Don't think for a second that they aren't good enough to be in this series. Don't think for a second that the Monarchs can't win the next 2 at home.

Hershey needs to show up more determined then ever tonight. Play like its game 7 of the Calder Cup Finals. Throw everything you have at the Monarchs and knock them down early. Because if this series goes to 2-2 tonight....all bets are off.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears take 2-0 series lead in overtime

Let's clear this up now...was it a goal?

Yes it was. I unfortunately was unable to attend the game last night but managed to see the end of the game online and the one replay was perfect. That puck was absolutely across the line prior to the net coming off. But just barely. Remember it isn't when the puck hits the net but rather when it crosses the goal line.

Here you be the judge....



And according to the AHL rule book it honestly wouldn't have mattered. The referee is permitted to allow the goal even if the goal is off.

For the 7th time in 11 postseason games the Hershey Bears came from behind in the third period to win the game. Last night Manchester played very good hockey. Some timely saves by Neuvirth helped the Bears stay in the game and eventually win.

I didn't think Hershey did as good a job last night as they did Wednesday as far as getting in Bernier's way and crease.

That might have had something to do with Andrew Gordon leaving due to injury in the 1st period but still there are other players who can do that.

Obviously I am not a coach so I don't know what happens in practice BUT out of all the players on Hershey's roster, WHY would Boyd Kane be selected to take Gordo's spot on the top line?

Nothing against Kane, great player, great leader, and definitely talented. But let's be honest, he isn't fast and he isn't a prominent goal scorer. Obviously you don't break up the Perry, Bouch, and Bourque line so that eliminates 3 guys. And while Andrew Joudrey is an amazing player he is even less of a scorer so he is out. But that leaves 4 other players that I would rather see on the first line...Beagle, Wilson, Rome, or (my personal favorite) Pinner.

Steve Pinizzotto has come to play in this series. He has 2 goals, a fight, and loads of hustle. He is a better offensive weapon than many people realize and he would be PERFECT for the top line if Gordo can't go. He is a pest who can score. You put him on the first line and let him play his game and the Monarchs will pay more attention to him allowing for more open ice for Giroux and Coiner.

That being said, making a change mid game due to injury I can see Kane getting the spot due to him being there before and being able to play multiple styles. But heading into Monday's game, if Gordo can't go (listed at day to day which can mean anything in the playoffs) then I hope to see Pinner take his spot.

Hershey has placed the Monarchs squarely on the chopping block now. The next 3 games come in New Hampshire which is surely a benefit for the Monarchs but Hershey is guaranteed another home game. Whether it is this series or the next Hershey will play in the GC again this spring.

Game 2 tonight

Hershey showed everyone on Wednesday night that they are the team to beat no matter what the circumstances, long layoff, hot goaltender, anything. But there is still plenty of work to do.

Tonight's game isn't quite as big as game 1 for Hershey but it is huge for the Monarchs. If the Bears can win tonight they would be up 2-0 in the series as they head for Manchester and would at least guarantee that they wouldn't lose the series without coming home first.

But if the Monarchs can somehow beat the Bears at Giant Center, which is extremely rare (more on that in a second) then they could conceivably win the series without returning to Hershey.

I know, I know...Hershey looked really good on Wednesday night. All the fears and concerns I expressed on here leading into game 1 were found to be unwarranted. Surely all you Bears fans are now confident that Hershey can win this series in 4 games and be well rested for the Calder Cup Finals.

I will admit that I am definitely more confident in Hershey's chances but remember this...(if you read my game review write up you saw this already) Jonathon Bernier and the Monarchs gave up 4 goals in a game 1 loss to Worcester in the last round. Do you know how many goals he gave up in the next 5 games?

6.

6 goals in 5 games and the Sharks were heading to the golf course. Don't be fooled by Bernier's 'perceived' troubles on Wednesday night. He is very very good and he can win games for the Monarchs.

Now, that being said I really think Hershey is positioned well to win this series. Maybe in as few games as 5. But in order to do that they would have to win tonight. They win tonight and I think this series could be over before next weekend. They lose tonight and I would say the series will return to Hershey next Saturday night.

But can the Monarchs win in Hershey? Can anyone beat the Bears in Hershey???

In the playoffs Hershey is 6-0 and has outscored the opponent 25-14 at Giant Center. Impressive. Now check this out...

Through the first 10 home games (up until Nov 28) Hershey went 5-5 at home. Since then they have gone an astounding 29-1 and have not scored less than 3 goals at home in any game.
Want more?

• scored more than 3 goals 27 times
• are 27-0 when they score 4 or more
• scored more than 4 goals 20 times during the regular season stretch

Combine the regular season and postseason and this is what you get...

• 35-1 since Nov 28
• scored 3 goals (no fewer) in every game
• scored 4 goals or more in 32 games
• have a 32-0 record when they score 4+ goals

RIDICULOUS!

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Photos from Game 1

I told you yesterday to check back for some Game 1 photos and surprise...I actually posted them!! Here are some photos from Game 1 against Manchester....


First up...Who is more flexible?? I vote for Neuvy!




Some shots during warmups...Coiner and Bourque seemed to be pretty loose!






Everyone helping Neuvy get ready for the Monarchs offense




Talking some strategy right before the opening faceoff




Pinner right after he schooled Bernier in the 2nd



Gordon and Coiner getting some pressure



Neuvy making one of his 24 saves



Bernier showing off some of his talent during the 2nd period

Bears take game 1 from Monarchs

Well I was wrong...and it feels good to be wrong. The Bears did not have any kind of letdown last night as they won 4-2 in game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals.

16 seconds into the game Sean Collins scored and honestly that was the closest Manchester would come all night.

Andrew Gordon added his 10th of the playoffs with 10 minutes to go in the first. Steve Pinizzotto in the 2nd and Karl Alzner in the 3rd period completed the scoring for the Bears.

It was 3-0 after two and while they played better in the 2nd and 3rd periods the Monarchs were unable to get closer than a 2 goal deficit.

Michal Neuvirth played exceptionally through 2 periods before letting in a couple that he should have had. But he played great through the first 2 periods.

Overall it was a very good game for Hershey in all facets of the game. Goaltending, defensively, offensively, and on special teams, the Bears controlled the play. They did appear to tire late in the 2nd and in the 3rd but were able to continue to play solid positional hockey even though they weren't getting to lose pucks and were routinely making poor passes.

Jonathon Bernier played well I thought for the Monarchs and while I do think Hershey could end this in fewer then 7 games I still think it might go the distance. In game 1 against Worcester he allowed 4 goals and then proceeded to allow 6 goals the next 5 games so don't read too much into one game.

Last night Hershey did what they needed to, they got traffic in front and made sure he couldn't see pucks. But he still made plenty of big saves.

The Monarchs (and all the other teams for that matter) have not faced a team like Hershey until they face them. The depth and talent is phenomenal.

And I will say this too....

If Neuvirth can play every game like he did in the first 2 periods last night...Hershey is legitimately unbeatable.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!

My Three Stars of the Game:

1. Chris Bourque - he had a single assist but I thought he played as well as anyone on the ice last night.
2. Mathieu Perreault - like Bourque he also had but a single assist but again he played exceptionally.
3. Steve Pinizzotto - a goal and a fight...the goal was great as was the fight

Grading the Performance:

• Offense | A | I thought they played very well. At times maybe they made some silly plays and passes but overall they scored 4 times and got lots of traffic in front of Bernier. They came out strong and the early goal set the tone.
• Defense | B+ | For the first 2 periods they had an A+ and then they got tired it seemed. They still played well positionally but they couldn't get the Monarchs out of the zone and it ended in 2 goals. Hopefully it was just a side effect of 2 weeks off and an intense opening period.
• Goaltending | A | For 2 periods he was as good as it gets and then the third period he looked a little suspicious. He needs to play like the first 40 minutes for a full 60 and no one will beat the Bears.
• Power Play | B+ | Only short of an A because of not converting the 5 on 3 in the 2nd. Sure they only had 20 some seconds I think but they were too passive in that time frame. GREAT job by Andrew Gordon for parking himself in front of Bernier...I was shocked that the Monarchs D just let him stand there.
• Penalty Kill | A | Never let the Monarchs get setup and kept them on the outside when they did. 3 chances...3 kills.
• Overall | B+ | Late in the second and throughout the third the Bears seemed to tire. It didn't hurt them that much obviously but it was a problem as they allowed 2 goals. I think they did what they needed to though...push hard in the first and feel the layoff effects late. There was no rust that I could see and hopefully they will get back into 60 minute game shape for game 2.

**I will have some pictures up from the game sometime tomorrow...check back to see them**

5 reasons Hershey will win series...and 2 reasons why they might not

Yesterday you saw my series preview. So today, game day, I wanted to give you my top 5 reasons why Hershey will win this series. But to be fair I am also giving you 2 reasons that they wouldn't.

Depth

I have been telling anyone who would listen for the last year that this is the deepest team in the AHL and not many teams can compete. And that is still true. Manchester is a good and relatively deep team BUT they don't have the quality of players Hershey has on its 3rd/4th line.

Hershey's 3rd/4th lines consist of players like Jay Beagle, Andrew Joudrey, Ashton Rome, Steve Pinizzotto, and Boyd Kane. Even Kyle Wilson and Francois Bouchard spend time on the 3rd/4th lines on this team. Most, if not all, of those guys would be at least 2nd line players for other teams in the AHL.

Hershey's depth will prove to be an advantage again in the third periods and late next week when the teams get to games 5-7. Game 5 is next Thursday which will make it a 5 games in 9 days for the two teams with 6 and 7 coming back to back next weekend (if necessary). Overall these teams could play 7 games in 12 days.

And Hershey's depth gives them a distinct advantage.

Aucoin, Giroux, Gordon

Is there a more dominant line in the AHL? I don't think so. Not even the MAG line last season was as good as these guys are.

During the playoffs they have combined for 20 goals and 24 assists in 9 GAMES!! Giroux has 10 while Gordon has 9 in the goals department and Coiner has 12 assists by himself. All of these guys are producing better than a point per game with Giroux at almost 2 points per game.

And they are not even the top 3 scorers on the team! Chris Bourque actually has more points than Aucoin.

This line has to figure out a way to beat Bernier for the Bears to win. I think they will.

A Complete and Healthy Defense

For part of the Albany series Hershey was without Patty McNeill, Greg Amadio, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson. Add to that Grant Lewis' injury and Sean Collins being out sick and you see that for the first couple of rounds Hershey has had an issue on the blue line.

Nothing against Dylan Yeo or Johann Kroll but there is a reason they spent most of the 09-10 season in South Carolina. They played well for the games they were in but if Hershey is going to win the Calder Cup they need their defense to be better.

Getting Carlson back is absolutely huge. In my opinion he is one of the best defenseman in the AHL currently. And Karl Alzner isn't far behind him. Neither player will spend much time in Hershey next season and both are critical pieces to the Bears Calder Cup aspirations.

Add to Carlson and Alzner a soon to be healthy McNeill and Amadio and the defense looks much better.

Healthy Goaltender

Entering the playoffs Michal Neuvirth had missed substantial time with injuries. And then hurt himself again against Albany. So having 13 days off will definitely help last seasons playoff MVP.

And honestly Hershey needs him because Braden Holtby has been below average in the playoffs so far. Holtby can not be relied on this year so it is Nuevy's job so long as he stays healthy.

So far Neuvy has been average in the playoffs with the exception of record where he is 6-0. But he is giving up 2.42 goals a game and is only stopping 89% of the shots he faces. He needs to be better.

Experience

This team has been here before. It's honestly as simple as that. Last year Hershey won the Calder Cup and there surely were challenges along the way including a 7 game series against the Wilkes Barre/Scranton Penguins.

The Monarchs didn't even make the playoffs.

Sure, Manchester has now played (and won) 2 playoff series but the Eastern Conference finals are different. Now you are playing a team that you probably don't know very well (these teams played twice and not since early November) and can only go off of scouting and video.

But Hershey has the advantage of doing this 4 of the past 5 years. They know what they need to do to prepare for a team in the Atlantic division. They understand that it will be different than it was in the first 2 rounds.

They have been here before.

.................................................................

And now for 2 reasons why the Bears could have some trouble...

Jonathon Bernier

Okay so maybe I am beating a dead horse here as I keep mentioning the Monarchs young goaltender. But when you put up great numbers in 3 NHL games (3-0, under 2 gaa), a great regular season, and then you put up unconscious numbers in the playoffs you deserve all this respect.

A hot goaltender can do amazing things for a team. Think about it...Cassivi, Price, Neuvirth...they were all playing very well and carrying their teams during their runs. You have to have a goalie who can step up and win you some games.

The question for Bernier is, can he keep up the pace? He has given up 15 goals in 10 games! At some point the ice has to begin to tilt in the other direction. Can he hold up against the Bears attack? Can he win when the pressure is on in an elimination game?

The Monarchs can't answer those questions yet but they will likely need him to do that.

The Schedule

With the 2-3-2 format, the first 2 games become even more important. And with Hershey's long layoff these games could be much closer than they would like. If Hershey were to lose game 1 they would be in almost a must win situation for game 2 which all of a sudden puts all of the pressure on a team that has played one game in 17 days.

Not good.

Tonight's game is potentially (minus a game 7 anyway) the most important of the series. If Hershey wins they overcome what might be their biggest disadvantage early in the series, rust. Then the pressure is on Manchester because they don't want to go down 2-0 even with 3 straight at home.

If Manchester wins then Hershey will have 4 straight high pressure games before returning to Hershey for games 6-7. They would all but have to win game 2 and then still win at least 1 in Manchester.

In my opinion this schedule absolutely favors the Manchester considering the long layoff and then 3 straight in New Hampshire. BUT they still have to win 4 games before Hershey does which is not going to be easy.

....................................................................

There you go. Hershey is the more talented team in this series. They are favored to win. On paper they should absolutely win.

But you still have to play the games. And a hot goaltender can absolutely level the playing field immediately...just ask the Capitals.

LET'S GO BEARS!!!!

Bears/Monarchs series preview and my prediction

Tomorrow night the Hershey Bears finally get back to playing hockey against guys wearing different uniforms. After completing a 4 game sweep of Albany on April 29th the Bears have only been able to scrimmage against each other. It will have been 13 entire days since Hershey last took the ice when they host Manchester tomorrow night.

The questions that arises due to this is...

'Will there be rust?' and if so...'How much?'

We can only hope that they are used to not playing for a couple days/weeks and will therefore fall right back into their structure and winning ways. But 2 weeks is a long time.

I am legitimately worried that Hershey could be heading to Manchester on Monday with the series tied at 1 and 3 straight games in New Hampshire.

Back in December they had consecutive weeks where they didn't play for 5 days and both times they lost to Albany that first game back. Since then the coaching staff made some adjustments to practice times and styles to combat long layoffs.

BUT 13 DAYS?!?!

Hopefully I am wrong but I would say if you are going to, listening to, or watching the game tomorrow night don't be surprised to see or hear about Manchester controlling the play for the first 10-20 minutes.

More than likely the strategy for the Bears will be to weather the 1st period storm so to speak and expect to dominate the 2nd and 3rd periods.

Which in all honestly is exactly what they have been doing in the playoffs anyways so this really shouldn't affect them all that much.


Don't kid yourselves either...Manchester is good. This is not the same team that Hershey swept in the 06-07 Conference Finals (before running into the fighting Carey Prices' in the Finals). This Manchester team is very good and is getting even better goaltending right now.

Only 3 players remain on the Manchester roster that played in the 07 Calder Cup playoffs against the Bears, Kevin Westgarth, Gabe Gauthier and John Zeiler.

Hershey is different too as only 5 of the current Bears faced the Manchester team in 07. They are Giroux, Bourque, Wilson, Joudrey, and Sean Collins. And I don't think they all actually played but they were on the roster, more than likely some were just practicing with the team.

But this is a Manchester team who has been playing very well of late. Going back to the regular season this team has won 16 of 20 games and has only given up more than 3 goals twice in those 20 games (both losses by the way).

Remember that in the playoffs a team can achieve amazing things with a hot goaltender. Surely I don't need to remind you all of Carey Price (although I already did a few seconds ago) but without Price that series would have been MUCH closer and in my opinion it would have had a much better outcome.

This years hot goaltender...

Manchester's Jonathon Bernier. He came into the playoffs with a rock solid 2.03 goals against average and a .936 save percentage. And he has actually gotten BETTER after the first two rounds of the playoffs, allowing a ridiculous 1.48 goals against and sporting an insane .952 save percentage.

That means that on average you only score 2 goals on 40 shots. There aren't many teams that can manage to overcome those kind of numbers. Even the high powered Bears would likely struggle shooting that kind of a percentage.

What makes those numbers even more impressive is that the Monarchs have faced off against the Portland Pirates and Worcester Sharks so far. The #1 and #2 playoff seeds in the Atlantic and coincidentally the #1 and #2 teams in goals scored in the Atlantic.

Oh it gets more impressive...Worcester managed to score a whopping 10 goals in 6 games against Bernier and the Monarchs. This is the SAME Worcester team that finished SECOND in the AHL in goals for during the regular season behind your Hershey Bears.

This team could cause Hershey all kinds of problems. If you were or are of the mindset that this Hershey team was just going to skate into the Finals with their scoring...think again. This Manchester team could be a significant challenge.

If I was a betting man, I would say expect a return trip to Hershey before this series sees its conclusion. (my final prediction is at the very bottom of this post)


A few more notes, mentions, and analysis for the series:

Offensively:

Manchester is not nearly as good as Hershey in this regard but they are solid. They have scored 30 goals in 10 games compared to Hershey's 40 in 9 games. **when you only allow 15, as the Monarchs have, you don't have to score much**

Then again Hershey's defense hasn't been exactly dominant this postseason either giving up 27 in 9 games. If you play the numbers out then you would see that Manchester will average their standard 3 goals per game while Hershey will average only about 2.

But that's why they play the games on ice and not paper.

Top Scorers:

Manchester

• LW Bud Holloway (9) | He has 6 goals and 5 assists in their 1o games this playoff year. He also led them in points during the regular season with 47 and was second in goals with 19.
• RW Trevor Lewis (11) | He is second on the team this postseason with 5 goals and has an additional 2 assists for 7 points.
• There are a bunch of players with 2 or 3 goals and overall they have 14 guys who have at least one goal.

Hershey

• LW Alexandre Giroux (12) | 10 goals, 7 assists, almost 2 points per game in 9 playoff games...absolutely obscene.
• RW Andrew Gordon (10) | 9 goals of his own, along with 5 assists puts him 3rd on the team in points with 14.
• LW Chris Bourque (17) | He only has 4 goals this playoff year (only...ha!) but he has 11 assists which gives him a 2nd on the team 15 points.
• Overall Hershey has 12 players with at least one goal. Surprisingly two fewer players than Manchester.

Defensively:

Defensive numbers are tough to make sense of as there really are no telling categories. They have +/- but in my opinion that only means something if there are a couple players that are way off the team average.

I will say this though. If you have a defenseman that was playing on the #1 pairing for a Stanley Cup contender (or so they thought) then he is probably pretty good. John Carlson is that player and add in to the mix another likely NHLer for next season Karl Alzner and you could get the impression that Hershey's defense is pretty good.

And it is. As for Manchester...they don't have anyone quite like that on their team. But Joe Piskula is tied for the team lead with a +8 so I would have to say that opposing teams don't score too much when he is on the ice.

Special Teams:

Hershey during the regular season was dominant on special teams, finishing 1st in both power play and penalty killing. But Manchester was pretty good too finishing 5th in both categories.

After looking at the stats I can say this...Hershey is a great power play team...on the road. At home Hershey is actually 13th in the league on the power play while they are 1st on the road converting almost 40% of their tries. This will help them when they play 3 straight in Manchester next week.

Overall though I would say this is a wash. Hershey is slightly better on the power play while Manchester is slightly better penalty killing. Neither team is great but neither team is awful either.

Although I will say this...Hershey needed to be that good on the power play on the road because they are only 14th (out of 16) in road penalty killing...allowing a whopping 30% success rate.

Goaltending:

This will be the most interesting segment in the series. Last years playoffs MVP, Michal Neuvirth, versus this years top goalie to date, Jonathon Bernier. Bernier's numbers, mentioned earlier (1.48 gaa, .952 save %) are absolutely ridiculous. Overall the Manchester goalie has allowed more than 2 goals only twice in the postseason and both were losses.

Hershey hasn't had the same stability this year as Neuvirth has been unable to stay healthy but when he plays he is playing okay. He has a 2.42 gaa and a .890 save percentage. They aren't especially good numbers but when your team is averaging almost 4.5 goals per game you have a little more wiggle room.

But I am afraid that Neuvy is going to have to step up his game this series. More than likely the final scores will be closer to 3-2 than 5-4 and the way Bernier is playing Hershey's blueliners and Neuvy better be ready to protect 1 goal leads.


And now for the prediction....

I am a Hershey fan (obviously), a positive thinker, and an eternal optimist but this series scares me a lot more than it did two days ago now that I have looked at the numbers. This might be the toughest series for Hershey since the 05-06 Portland series which went 7 games.

I think Hershey wins but just so you know...I intend to be in Hershey next Saturday and Sunday (22nd and 23rd) for the 'if necessary' games 6 and 7.

Just for those of you who can't put all that together....

Hershey in 7

(and by the way I don't want the stress that I will surely be feeling if this goes 7 so I hope it is over next Tuesday night with a Hershey sweep)